GS
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- GS delivered net revenues of $14.58B, diluted EPS of $10.91, and annualized ROE of 12.8% in Q2 2025; revenues were +15% YoY and -3% QoQ, while EPS rose +27% YoY but fell -23% QoQ .
- Results beat S&P Global consensus: revenue $14.58B vs $13.58B estimate (+7%), EPS $10.91 vs $9.66 estimate (+13%); prior quarter also beat, signaling estimate revisions upward are likely*.
- Global Banking & Markets drove outperformance with record Equities net revenues ($4.30B, +36% YoY) and strong Advisory ($1.17B, +71% YoY); FICC financing reached a record $1.04B .
- The Board raised the quarterly dividend 33% to $4.00 per share starting Q3 2025 and repurchased $3.0B of common stock, underscoring capital return and confidence in more durable revenues .
- Backlog rose for a fifth consecutive quarter, with advisory strength; management highlighted AI-driven efficiency initiatives (GS AI assistant, agentic developers) as medium-term productivity catalysts .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record Equities performance and strong Advisory: “Equities net revenues were a record $4.3 billion… Advisory revenues of $1.2 billion rose 71% versus a year ago” .
- Financing resilience and wallet share gains: “Total financing revenues… reached a new record… now comprising over one-third of overall fixed and equities revenues… top three with 125 of the top 150 clients globally” .
- AI and productivity: “Rolled out our natural language GS AI assistant to the entire firm… piloting Devin… which will significantly enhance velocity, transform our capabilities, and drive efficiency” .
What Went Wrong
- Credit costs: Provision for credit losses rose to $384M (+36% QoQ), driven by credit card net charge-offs and portfolio growth .
- Asset & Wealth Management investment marks: Equity investments posted a slight loss, and Debt investments declined sharply YoY amid reduced balances and hedge losses; AWM net revenues were -3% YoY .
- CET1 and SLR ticked down QoQ (Standardized CET1 14.5% vs 14.8% prior; SLR 5.3% vs 5.5%), reflecting higher RWAs and balance sheet assets .
Financial Results
Headline Comparisons (oldest → newest)
Actual vs S&P Global Consensus (EPS/Revenue)
- Q2 2025 beats: EPS +13% vs consensus, Revenue +7% vs consensus. Q1 2025 also beat both. Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global*.
Segment Net Revenues ($MM)
KPIs and Balance Sheet
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “We delivered a strong performance… net revenues of $14.6 billion, EPS of $10.91, and an ROE of 12.8%… our backlog rose for a fifth consecutive quarter, driven by advisory.”
- CEO on AI: “Rolled out our natural language GS AI assistant… piloting Devin… which will significantly enhance velocity… and drive efficiency.”
- CFO: “Equities net revenues were a record $4.3 billion… record equities financing… record fixed financing revenues of $1 billion.”
- Capital return: “Our board also approved a 33% increase in our quarterly dividend to $4 per share… and authorized a multi-year share repurchase program of up to $40 billion.”
- Press release highlight: Dividend increase, $3.96B capital returned (repurchases $3.0B; dividends $957MM) in Q2 .
Q&A Highlights
- Capital buffers and deployment: GS plans a 50–100bps buffer over minimum CET1; excess capital directed first to client franchise, then buybacks/dividend .
- AWM historical principal investments: Reduced ~10% in quarter to ~$8B; committed to aggressively shrinking; harvesting environment still challenging .
- Dividend sizing: Aim is sustainable, steadily rising dividend; 2025’s 33% raise reflects durable revenue mix, not a recurring step-up .
- M&A outlook: Announced M&A up 30% YoY and 15% above 5-year average; dialogue significantly increased; backlog notably higher vs YE 2024 .
- Tokenization: Watching legislative/regulatory developments; potential opportunities around funding and digitization benefits .
- Trading vs IB cycles: Markets business is broad/diverse; robust IB activity remains constructive for markets .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 beats: Revenue actual $14.58B vs $13.58B consensus; Diluted EPS actual $10.91 vs $9.66 consensus — both positive surprises likely to spur upward estimate revisions*.
- Prior quarter also beat (Q1 2025 revenue $15.06B vs $14.71B; EPS $14.12 vs $12.26*), reinforcing momentum.*
Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- GS delivered a clean beat on both EPS and revenue; strength was broad-based with record Equities and robust Advisory — narrative supports positive estimate revisions and constructive sentiment for capital markets-linked revenues .
- Dividend increased to $4 and buybacks continued ($3B); combined with expected CET1 minimum reduction to 10.9% (effective Oct 1), capital return is a medium-term tailwind .
- Financing businesses (FICC and Equities) are now over one-third of total markets revenues and provide ballast through cycles; watch continued growth and risk discipline .
- Credit costs rose on credit cards; monitor Platform Solutions credit performance and consumer NCOs for near-term EPS volatility .
- AWM marks were soft; incentive fees ramp more likely in 2026–2027; near-term harvesting muted — focus on fee growth, AUS inflows, and alternatives fundraising cadence .
- Backlog increased for the fifth straight quarter, with advisory strength and CEO confidence improving; IB fee trajectory is favorable contingent on macro/regulatory clarity .
- AI initiatives (GS AI assistant, agentic devs) indicate credible productivity upside and operating leverage over time; medium-term efficiency gains can support margins even as GS invests in growth .