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GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • GS delivered net revenues of $15.18B and diluted EPS of $12.25, with ROE 14.2%. Results were up 20% YoY and 4% QoQ, led by Global Banking & Markets and record fee/financing durability; BVPS rose to $353.79 .
  • EPS and revenue beat Wall Street consensus: EPS $12.25 vs $11.09* and revenue $15.18B vs $14.25B*; strength in Advisory, leveraged finance, and prime balances were key drivers (beat of ~10.5% EPS and ~6.5% revenue). Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Asset & Wealth Management revenues jumped 17% QoQ to $4.40B on record management fees ($2.95B) and private banking & lending ($1.06B); AUS reached a record $3.45T with $79B net inflows .
  • Management highlighted “One Goldman Sachs 3.0 propelled by AI” to drive efficiency and capacity, a constructive regulatory backdrop (CET1 14.4% vs 10.9% requirement), and the highest investment banking backlog in three years as catalysts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Advisory revenues surged to $1.40B (+60% YoY), with strong completions and top-tier league table positioning; CFO: backlog “at its highest level in three years” .
  • Record equities financing ($1.72B), +33% YoY, driven by record prime balances; durable financing revenues now ~40% of FICC+Equities .
  • AWM record management & other fees ($2.95B) and private banking & lending ($1.06B); AUS climbed to $3.45T on $79B net inflows; gross alternatives fundraising hit $33B in Q3 .

“Longer term, we are prioritizing the need to operate more efficiently… helped by new AI technologies.” — CEO David Solomon .

What Went Wrong

  • Equities intermediation fell to $2.02B (−9% YoY, −22% QoQ), with softer cash equities amid tough comps; CFO noted difficult prior-year/prior-quarter comparisons .
  • Operating expenses rose to $9.45B (+14% YoY), including higher compensation, transaction-based costs, charitable contributions, and litigation/regulatory provisions ($131M) .
  • Provision for credit losses remained elevated at $339M (credit card net charge-offs; consumer annualized NCO rate ~5.6%), while Platform Solutions incurred a $286M provision and a loss .

Financial Results

Headline metrics vs prior periods

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Revenues ($USD Billions)$15.06 $14.58 $15.18
Diluted EPS ($)$14.12 $10.91 $12.25
Annualized ROE (%)16.9% 12.8% 14.2%
Efficiency Ratio (YTD, %)60.6% 62.0% 62.1%
Provision for Credit Losses ($USD Millions)$287 $384 $339
Operating Expenses ($USD Billions)$9.13 $9.24 $9.45

Q3 2025 actual vs S&P Global consensus

MetricActualConsensusBeat/(Miss)
Diluted EPS ($)$12.25 $11.09*+$1.16 (~+10.5%)*
Net Revenues ($USD Billions)$15.18 $14.25*+$0.93B (~+6.5%)*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment net revenues

Segment ($USD Billions)Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Global Banking & Markets$10.71 $10.12 $10.12
Asset & Wealth Management$3.68 $3.78 $4.40
Platform Solutions$0.68 $0.69 $0.67

Q3 2025 segment breakdown

Segment Detail ($USD Billions)Q3 2025
Advisory$1.40
Equity Underwriting$0.47
Debt Underwriting$0.79
Investment Banking Fees$2.66
FICC Intermediation$2.44
FICC Financing$1.04
FICC Total$3.47
Equities Intermediation$2.02
Equities Financing$1.72
Equities Total$3.74
AWM Mgmt & Other Fees$2.95
AWM Incentive Fees$0.08
Private Banking & Lending$1.06
Equity Investments$0.12
Debt Investments$0.20
Platform: Consumer Platforms$0.60
Platform: Transaction Banking & Other$0.07

KPIs and balance sheet

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Assets Under Supervision (AUS, $T)$3.17 $3.29 $3.45
AUS Net Inflows/(Outflows) ($B)$24 $5 $79
Net Market Appreciation/(Depreciation) ($B)$12 $115 $80
Book Value per Share ($)$344.20 $349.74 $353.79
CET1 Ratio (Standardized, %)14.8% 14.5% 14.4%
CET1 Ratio (Advanced, %)15.5% 15.3% 15.2%
Supplementary Leverage Ratio (%)5.5% 5.3% 5.2%
Average GCLA ($B)$441 $462 $481
Headcount (000s)46.6 45.9 48.3
Share Repurchases ($B)$4.36 $3.00 $2.00
Quarterly Dividend per Share ($)$3.00 $4.00 $4.00

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Effective Tax RateFY 2025~21.5% YTD ~22% full-year (CFO) Raised vs 1H rate
Compensation Ratio (net of provisions)FY 2025N/A32.5% best estimate for full-year (CFO) New disclosure
AWM Alternatives FundraisingFY 2025~$70B YTD (Q3 slide) ~$100B for full-year (CEO) Raised
Dividend per Common ShareQ3 declared$3.00 (Q1) $4.00 (Q2 raise, Q3 declared) Raised/maintained
Apple Card ProgramMedium termPrior indications of exit focusNo update; “not a go forward focus,” GM card fully exited Maintained exit stance
CET1 Requirement (Standardized)Effective Oct 1, 202513.6% current requirement (CCAR 2024) 10.9% expected (SCB averaging proposal) Lower regulatory requirement (framework)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1–Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
AI/technology initiativesEfficiency focus; AI opportunities referenced in forward-looking statements Launch of “One Goldman Sachs 3.0 propelled by AI” to drive efficiency/productivity Accelerating execution
Investment banking cycle/backlogBacklog increased QoQ (Q1–Q2) Backlog highest in 3 years; Advisory strong; sponsors re-engaging (+40% activity) Improving
Equities performanceRecord equities and financing (Q1–Q2) Record financing; softer cash intermediation vs tough comps Mix shift to financing
Financing durabilityRecord FICC/Equities financing; rising contribution (Q2) Financing ~40% of FICC+Equities revenues Structurally higher
Alternatives/AM growthSteady AUS growth, fundraising $18–19B/qtr (Q1–Q2) Gross fundraising $33B in Q3; ~$100B FY target; Industry Ventures acquisition Accelerating
Regulatory/legal backdropCET1 ratio clarity pending; litigation/regulatory provisions lower in Q2 Regulatory tone “improving,” expected SLR relief, CCAR transparency, G-SIB recalibration More constructive
Consumer/credit riskElevated card provisions; NCOs ~6–7% on consumer (Q1–Q2) PCL $339M; consumer NCO ~5.6%; SRT used as ordinary-course risk management Ongoing, managed

Management Commentary

  • “This quarter's results reflect the strength of our client franchise… longer term, we are prioritizing the need to operate more efficiently… helped by new AI technologies.” — David Solomon .
  • “Advisory revenues… were very strong… quarter-end backlog at its highest level in three years… Record equities financing revenues of $1.7B… financing revenues comprise nearly 40% of overall FICC and equities” — Denis Coleman .
  • “One Goldman Sachs 3.0 propelled by AI… a new, more centralized operating model… drive efficiencies and create capacity for future growth” — David Solomon .
  • “We expect a tax rate of approximately 22% for the full year” and “compensation ratio net of provisions is 32.5%… best estimate for the full year” — Denis Coleman .
  • “We’ve been clear that credit cards are not a go forward focus… we are completely exited from the GM card platform” — David Solomon .

Q&A Highlights

  • Risk management and synthetic risk transfers: Management emphasized ordinary-course dynamic risk management to maintain capacity; SRTs are one tool among many .
  • AI-driven operating model: One GS 3.0 is about automation, efficiency, and reinvesting capacity into growth, not a response to revenue issues .
  • Private credit/NDFIs exposure: No direct exposure to headline-challenged names; disciplined underwriting, collateral packages, diversification, and ongoing monitoring emphasized .
  • Regulatory outlook: Expect SLR relief, CCAR transparency/averaging, G-SIB recalibration; timeline likely over fall 2025 to H1 2026; competitive position improving vs non-banks .
  • AWM trajectory: Path to mid-teens ROE via scaling fees, fundraising, and margin uplift; incentive fees unrealized balance $4.6B supports medium-term $1B annual target .

Estimates Context

  • EPS: $12.25 actual vs $11.09 consensus* — beat (~+10.5%)* .
  • Revenue: $15.18B actual vs $14.25B consensus* — beat (~+6.5%)* .
  • Prior quarters: Q1 2025 EPS $14.12 vs $12.26*; Q2 2025 EPS $10.91 vs $9.66*. Revenue: Q1 $15.06B vs $14.71B*; Q2 $14.58B vs $13.58B* .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Consensus MetricsQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
EPS Consensus Mean ($)12.26*9.66*11.09*
Revenue Consensus Mean ($)14.71B*13.58B*14.25B*
EPS # of Estimates13*15*17*
Revenue # of Estimates11*13*11*
Target Price Consensus Mean ($)802.53*802.53*802.53*
Target Price # of Estimates19*19*19*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Broad-based beat driven by Advisory, leveraged finance, and durable financing revenues; narrative favors cyclical turn in IB plus structural financing growth — supportive for multiple expansion .
  • AWM is scaling into more durable revenue mix with record AUS and fees; alternatives fundraising run-rate lifted to ~$100B FY, providing medium-term earnings visibility .
  • Equities softness in cash intermediation looks transitory given tough comps and record financing; focus remains on growing prime and FICC financing within risk appetite .
  • Cost discipline and AI-enabled operating model are near-term margin levers; watch for quantified efficiency targets in January update .
  • Regulatory trajectory (SLR relief, CCAR averaging, G-SIB recalibration) likely reduces required buffers and increases capital distribution flexibility in 2026; CET1 14.4% vs 10.9% expected requirement provides room .
  • Credit remains manageable with provisions largely card-driven; consumer NCOs are elevated but contained; ordinary-course SRT/hedging supports balance sheet capacity .
  • Trading: favor near-term strength in IB/financing as catalysts; medium term, AWM scaling and AI execution should support a higher, more durable ROE profile.