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    Globalstar (GSAT)

    GSAT Q4 2024: EBITDA Margin to Compress Below 25% in 12-18 Months

    Reported on May 8, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$21.56Last close (Feb 27, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$19.30Open (Feb 28, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-2.26(-10.48%)
    • Infrastructure and Gateway Development: The management emphasized that new ground infrastructure and gateway projects are actively underway, which supports long-term network expansion and resilience. This proactive approach can strengthen the backbone of their connectivity offerings.
    • Enhanced Satellite Constellation Capabilities: The upcoming Aurora satellite constellation, although a new launch, will work in tandem with the existing satellites using the same spectrum. This integration is expected to improve service reliability and support advanced two-way IoT functionalities.
    • Strategic Partnerships for Expanded Market Reach: The collaboration with partners such as Parsons is set to leverage their established go-to-market channels, particularly in mission-critical and defense applications, potentially unlocking new revenue streams.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +16.6% (from $52.4M to $61.11M)

    Total revenue growth was driven by enhanced service revenue performance, reflecting both higher wholesale capacity fees and overall increased demand for the company's services, building on previous period improvements.

    Service Revenue

    +17.7% (from $48.95M to $57.68M)

    Service revenue increased as the company benefited from a rising mix of service fees—including contributions from commercial IoT and performance-driven wholesale capacity services—which built upon the enhancements seen in the previous period’s service portfolio.

    Wholesale Capacity Services

    +36.7% (from $25.69M to $35.11M)

    Wholesale capacity services surged due to expanded services fees and additional performance bonuses under the service agreements, reflecting significant improvements over last year’s figures.

    Duplex Revenue

    -23% (from $5.81M to $4.48M)

    Duplex revenue declined sharply as a result of fewer average subscribers—a trend driven by the strategic decision to shift focus away from legacy Duplex devices towards newer platforms—continuing a trend already seen in previous periods.

    Operating Results

    64% narrowing of operating loss

    Operating losses narrowed dramatically from ($11,993K) to ($4,249K) due to higher revenue and improved operational efficiency, which helped offset increased operating expenses; this improvement contrasts with previous periods where non-cash and other irregular expenses impacted the loss.

    Net Income (Loss)

    Worsened (from ($15,078K) to ($50,219K); EPS deteriorated from –$0.02 to –$0.57)

    Net income worsened significantly despite operating improvements, suggesting that additional non-operating expenses, higher interest costs, or other extraordinary items negatively affected the bottom line compared to prior periods.

    Liquidity (Cash & Equivalents)

    Nearly 6.9× increase (from $56.74M to $391.16M)

    Liquidity improved markedly as cash and cash equivalents surged, likely due to favorable financing activities, robust operating cash flows, or strategic balance sheet management, representing a significant shift from the lower liquidity position in the previous period.

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Satellite Constellation Integration

    Q1: Mentioned as remaining on schedule for a 2025 launch. Q2: Focused on satellite development and cost recovery via contractual fees. Q3: Announced plans for a new constellation with funding details and long-term revenue expectations

    In Q4, the discussion was more detailed, including an extension of an existing contract and a new MDA deal for 50 Aurora satellites with enhanced capabilities

    Consistent advancement with increased technical and contractual detail, moving from a status update in early quarters to more concrete contracts and technological improvements in Q4.

    Contract Pipeline

    Q1: Covered through the launch of XCOM RAN units and a government services proof-of-concept contract with a 5‐year term. Q2: No direct discussion of pipeline specifics. Q3: Touched on customer engagement and funding arrangements including a large infrastructure prepayment and equity sale

    Q4 featured a robust narrative detailing their unique financial arrangements via wholesale capacity, emphasizing the long-term value creation enabled by their contract pipeline

    Evolving focus with the narrative deepening over time; Q4 shows a more structured and richly detailed pipeline compared to the earlier periods.

    Infrastructure and Gateway Development

    Q1 & Q2: Not mentioned. Q3: Briefly included as part of expanded ground infrastructure in updated service agreements

    Q4 offered a detailed overview of the multi-step, complex process for developing new ground infrastructure and gateways, highlighting challenges like site selection and ensuring connectivity

    An emerging focus in later periods, with Q4 providing a more thorough and operationally nuanced discussion compared to minimal or absent mentions earlier.

    Strategic Partnerships and Ecosystem Collaborations

    Q1 & Q2: No mentions. Q3: Detailed discussion of a strategic partnership with Liquid Intelligent Technologies and ecosystem expansion (e.g. Band n53 support)

    No information provided in Q4 regarding this topic

    The Q3 emphasis has been dropped in Q4, indicating a de-emphasis or temporary pause in discussing strategic partnerships relative to the previous period.

    Revenue Growth Acceleration and Emerging Revenue Streams

    Q1: Detailed discussion of revenue growth from satellite network and IoT deployments, including significant increases in service revenue and new contractual opportunities. Q2: Presented solid revenue increases, growth guidance adjustments, and progress in emerging streams. Q3: Mentioned continued expansion but with fewer specifics

    In Q4, revenue acceleration was emphasized through strong quarterly and full‐year revenue numbers, a notable rise in service revenue, and the announcement of a new product launch (QA device) to drive future growth

    A consistently positive sentiment with growth metrics highlighted in every quarter; Q4 reinforces and expands on the successful revenue trajectory with added product innovation details.

    Execution and Operational Risks in Deployment

    Q1: Implicit in contract and deployment updates with no explicit risk discussion. Q2: Included hints regarding slower rollout of new capabilities, manufacturing transition risks, and the inherent risks of satellite launches. Q3: No explicit risk commentary although operational progress was noted

    Q4 discussed the inherent complexity in deploying new ground infrastructure and gateways, specifically citing challenges around site selection, connectivity, redundancy, and resilience

    There is an increasing acknowledgement of operational challenges over time; Q4 explicitly highlights complex execution risks which were only subtly mentioned or absent in earlier periods.

    Technological Innovation and IoT Rollout

    Q1: Focused on the shipment of XCOM RAN units, demonstrating significant performance improvements and a boost in IoT service revenue. Q2: Emphasized in-house product development, technological enhancements, and steps to streamline IoT capabilities despite slower deployment. Q3: Discussed through alpha to beta testing phases and strategic partnerships enhancing the IoT ecosystem

    Q4 provided robust detail on delivering full 2-way satellite IoT solutions, beta testing progress, and a clear ramp-up plan for 2025 along with positive customer feedback

    An ongoing, steadily deepening focus; while the technological narrative was present in all periods, Q4 shows further refinement and readiness, with clearer rollout plans and enhanced features.

    Government and Defense Contract Opportunities (no longer emphasized)

    Q1: Included a significant government services contract opportunity featuring a 5‐year proof‐of-concept with escalating revenue. Q2: Active engagement with government services and exploration of additional government projects

    Q3 stated explicitly that these opportunities are no longer emphasized, and Q4 provided no mention of such contracts

    A clear de-emphasis over time; what began with active pursuit in Q1 and Q2 has been downplayed by Q3 and is absent in Q4, reflecting a strategic shift away from these opportunities.

    Direct-to-Smartphone and Terrestrial Connectivity Market Leadership

    Q1: No discussion was provided. Q2: Introduced with a focus on Globalstar’s unique position as the only company running commercial D2D services and cautious commentary on the unproven aspects of the business model. Q3: Explicitly emphasized leadership through operational services on millions of devices and strong industry partnerships

    In Q4, leadership was reinforced with detailed specifications (e.g. 100 Mbps download/60 Mbps upload in 10 MHz spectrum), a focus on globally licensed spectrum advantages, and regulatory renewals underpinning long-term market dominance

    The theme has grown from an initial introduction in Q2 to a dominant message in Q3 and Q4, with increasing technical details and competitive positioning reflecting strengthened market leadership.

    1. Margin Outlook
      Q: Is 25% EBITDA margin the trough?
      A: Management explained that margin compression is expected over the next 12–18 months due to strategic XCOM RAN investments, with free cash flow buoyed by upfront funding and reimbursable CapEx.

    2. 2-Way IoT Growth
      Q: When will 2-way IoT become material?
      A: The 2-way IoT service is currently in beta with a ramp-up beginning in 2025, indicating early but promising deployment.

    3. Aurora Constellation
      Q: Are Aurora satellites part of a new constellation?
      A: Aurora satellites constitute a new constellation that operates at the same altitude and spectrum, inter-operating with existing satellites.

    4. Satellite Launch Timing
      Q: When will the satellites launch?
      A: Management has not provided an update on the launch timing, leaving the full deployment schedule pending.

    5. Gateway Deployment
      Q: Are ground gateways being deployed this year?
      A: Work on new ground infrastructure and gateways is underway, though the process remains long-term and complex.

    6. Beam Forming
      Q: What benefits does beam forming provide?
      A: Beam forming allows the satellites to direct signals to specific antenna elements, enhancing connectivity efficiency.

    7. Retail Customer
      Q: Any update on a large retail customer rollout?
      A: Management noted improved cost reduction and technical readiness but awaits customer decisions for a significant rollout.

    8. Device Usage
      Q: Is usage broad beyond emergency scenarios?
      A: While early adoption shows usage during critical events like rescues, broad everyday usage remains limited and is developing.

    9. Samsung Integration
      Q: Is Samsung’s integration as simple as Apple’s?
      A: Implementation for Samsung is more complex due to significant overhead in adapting 3GPP standards compared to Apple’s approach.

    10. 2-Way Use Cases
      Q: What are the key 2-way IoT use cases?
      A: The enhanced 2-way service enables remote command and control of assets, supporting features like automated alerts and local processing for asset management.

    Research analysts covering Globalstar.