GREAT SOUTHERN BANCORP, INC. (GSBC)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• EPS $1.47, net income $17.2M; strong YoY and QoQ growth driven by higher net interest income, lower deposit costs, and a negative provision on unfunded commitments .
• EPS beat Wall Street by ~$0.20 (consensus $1.27*) and revenue modestly beat ($56.27M actual* vs $55.53M consensus*) — aided ~5bps by interest recoveries and ~$2M quarterly swap accretion through Q3 .
• Net interest margin expanded to 3.57% (+25bps YoY, +8bps QoQ); efficiency improved to 62.27% as legal/professional fees fell vs last year .
• Deposits rose $152.5M QoQ with brokered +$123.3M, while uninsured deposits remained ~14% of total; liquidity lines >$1.5B plus $337M of unpledged securities support flexibility .
• Capital strong (TCE ~10.1%, CET1 12.4%); board approved new repurchase authorization of up to 1.0M shares after ~173K shares repurchased in Q1 at $58.38, reinforcing shareholder return catalysts .

Note: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• “Net interest income totaled $49.3M… up ~10% YoY; NIM 3.57%” — margin expansion on lower deposit rates and better loan/securities yields; ~5bps uplift from recoveries .
• Credit quality remained strong: NPAs 0.16% of assets; NPLs 0.07%; net charge-offs only $56K; no provision on loans and a negative provision on unfunded commitments of $348K .
• Management quote: “Our balance sheet remains well positioned… tangible common equity ratio of 10.1% and approximately $2 billion of secured available lines and on-balance sheet liquid assets” .

What Went Wrong

• Noninterest income declined modestly YoY (-$216K to $6.6M), with softer overdraft fees and gains on loan sales vs prior year .
• Loan growth muted QoQ (gross loans essentially flat); management noted competitive lending environment and limited demand, tempering near-term growth expectations .
• Swap accretion benefit (~$2M per quarter) ends in early Q4’25, creating a foreseeable headwind to run-rate net interest income absent offsets .

Financial Results

Segment/KPI details:

Deposit mix:

Capital/liquidity:

Guidance Changes

Management does not provide formal revenue/EPS/expense guidance; qualitative commentary emphasized margin protection, cost discipline, funding mix optimization, and neutral rate posture .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• CEO: “Our first quarter results reflect the strength of our core banking franchise… profitability strengthened by higher interest income, disciplined expense management” .
• CFO: “We will lose the benefit of the terminated interest rate swap after the third quarter of 2025… approximately $2 million per quarter through the first three quarters of 2025” .
• CEO: “Our balance sheet remains well positioned… tangible common equity ratio of 10.1% and approximately $2 billion of secured available lines and on-balance sheet liquid assets” .
• CFO: “Efficiency ratio… 62.27%, an improvement compared to 66.68% recorded in the first quarter of 2024” .
• CEO on loan demand: “It’s not a lending environment where we would expect a lot of growth at all” .

Q&A Highlights

• Margin trajectory: modest tailwinds from CD replacement rates but limited room to further reduce non-time deposit rates; asset-side repricing gradual; ~5bps one-time recovery in Q1 .
• Rate cuts impact: balance sheet positioned near neutral; a 50bp cut could be a slight immediate negative, then recover as liabilities reprice .
• Loan demand: competitive environment with fewer opportunities; cautious on near-term growth .
• Buybacks: management expects to remain active; price and availability dependent; noted shares trade near book .
• Expenses: ex one-time $433K annual reimbursement, expect modest growth without material planned spikes .

Estimates Context

Values retrieved from S&P Global. EPS and revenue surprises reflect S&P Global “Primary EPS” and “Revenue” definitions.*

Implications: Upward bias to near-term NII/NIM expectations given deposit cost relief and stable asset yields, but the expiration of swap accretion in early Q4’25 should temper out-quarter run-rate projections .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• EPS and revenue beats, margin expansion, and efficiency gains indicate resilient core earnings despite muted loan growth — constructive near term .
• Deposit cost relief and CD rollovers support NIM; watch for the ~$2M/quarter swap tailwind ending in early Q4’25 to avoid overestimating out-year NII .
• Credit metrics remain best-in-class (NPAs 0.16%, NPLs 0.07%) with minimal net charge-offs; reserve ratio steady at 1.36% .
• Liquidity and capital are robust (TCE ~10.1%, CET1 12.4%); new 1.0M-share buyback authorization provides a tangible capital return lever, particularly if shares hover near book .
• Lending pipeline exists but near-term production likely modest; investors should focus on margin and cost control as principal earnings drivers rather than volume growth .
• Noninterest income softness is manageable; expense discipline (lower professional fees, tech investments paced) helped improve efficiency .
• Monitoring items: deposit competition trends, CD replacement rates vs market, swap roll-off timing, progress on core/technology initiatives (ITMs, banking center upgrade) as potential catalysts or expense swing factors .