Executive Summary

Q4 2024 diluted EPS was $1.27 and net income $14.9M, up year over year from $1.11 and $13.1M, respectively; net interest income rose 9.7% to $49.5M and NIM improved to 3.49% (vs. 3.30% YoY, 3.42% QoQ) .
Results included a non-recurring $2.0M litigation/contract dispute expense that reduced EPS by $0.13; excluding this, core profitability would have been modestly higher .
Asset quality remained strong: NPAs were 0.16% of assets; a $6.0M non-performing CRE loan was transferred to OREO (Clayton, MO office), lifting foreclosed assets to ~$6.0M, while allowance stayed at 1.36% of loans .
Liquidity and capital are robust (FHLB $1.06B, Fed $346.4M lines; TCE 9.9%; CET1 12.3%); deposit costs and mix are easing with recent Fed cuts, supporting NIM stability over the next 2–3 quarters per management .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Net interest income and margin improved: NII up $4.4M YoY to $49.5M; NIM 3.49% vs. 3.30% YoY and 3.42% QoQ, driven by higher loan yields and funding cost management .
Credit quality solid: NPAs fell YoY to $9.6M (0.16% of assets), NPLs 0.07%, and net charge-offs were just $155K in Q4; allowance for credit losses held at 1.36% .
Management tone constructive: “We remain committed to managing our business prudently… in what we expect will be a challenging operating environment,” highlighting resilience and disciplined ALM strategy .

What Went Wrong

Non-recurring expense hit: $2.0M litigation/contract dispute expense reduced EPS by $0.13 and lowered ROA/ROE (–10 bps ROA, –103 bps ROE) .
Deposit balances fell $91.9M in Q4 with declines across interest-bearing checking, non-interest-bearing checking, time, and brokered deposits; funding competition remains elevated .
Efficiency ratio rose QoQ to 65.43% (from 61.34% in Q3), with non-interest expense up sequentially (including the $2.0M item) .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Diluted EPS ($)	1.11	1.41	1.27
Net Income ($M)	13.145	16.490	14.922
Net Interest Income ($M)	45.147	47.975	49.534
Non-Interest Income ($M)	6.563	6.992	6.934
Provision for Credit Losses – Loans ($M)	0.750	1.200	—
Provision (Credit) – Unfunded Commitments ($M)	(1.689)	(0.063)	1.556
Net Interest Margin (%)	3.30%	3.42%	3.49%
Efficiency Ratio (%)	70.17%	61.34%	65.43%
ROA (Annualized, %)	0.91%	1.11%	1.00%
ROE (Annualized, %)	9.71%	11.10%	9.76%

KPIs – Asset Quality and Capital

KPI	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Allowance for Credit Losses / Loans (%)	1.39%	1.36%	1.36%
Non-Performing Assets / Assets (%)	0.20%	0.13%	0.16%
Non-Performing Loans / Loans (%)	0.25%	0.16%	0.07%
Annualized Net Charge-offs / Avg Loans (%)	0.07%	0.13%	0.01%
TCE Ratio (%)	9.7%	10.0%	9.9%
CET1 / Tier 1 / Total Capital Ratios (%)	11.9 / 12.4 / 15.2	12.3 / 12.8 / 15.5	12.3 / 12.8 / 15.4

Liquidity and Deposits

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
FHLB Line ($M)	—	1,116.7	1,058.8
Federal Reserve Line ($M)	—	305.0	346.4
Cash & Equivalents ($M)	211.3	208.4	195.8
Unpledged AFS Securities ($M)	—	344.3	329.9
Unpledged HTM Securities ($M)	—	25.5	25.0
Total Deposits ($M)	4,721.7	4,697.5	4,605.5
Uninsured Deposits ($M, %)	—	~$668 (14%)	~$670.3 (15%)

Notes: “—” indicates not explicitly disclosed in cited period tables.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Effective Tax Rate (combined federal & state)	Forward periods	~18%–20% (introduced 2024)	~18%–20% expected to continue	Maintained
Net Interest Margin (NIM) Outlook	Next 2–3 quarters	Neutral/stable (Q3 commentary)	No significant catalyst; expect around Q4 levels	Maintained
Terminated Swap Accretion to Interest Income	Q1–Q3 2025	~$2.0M per quarter (Q3 disclosure)	~$2.0M per quarter through Q3 2025; ceases thereafter	Maintained (timing reiterated)
Time Deposit Replacement Rates	Next 12 months	~3.50%–4.20% (Q3)	~3.50%–4.00% (Q4 based on Dec 2024 market)	Slightly lowered range
Operating Expenses Run-Rate (ex non-recurring)	Q1 2025	Low-$35M baseline with seasonal Q1 uptick	~$35M baseline; Q1 higher (payroll taxes, merit increases)	Maintained
Dividend	Ongoing	$0.40 per quarter	$0.40 declared in Q4 2024	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (Prev Mentions)	Q3 2024 (Prev Mentions)	Q4 2024 (Current)	Trend
Deposit Pricing & Competition	Funding costs elevated; borrowings used amid deposit runoff	Competition softened slightly; brokered/IBD mix managed	Markets remain competitive; prudent rate reductions; deposit declines in Q4	Gradual improvement but still competitive
Net Interest Margin Outlook	Defend margin; swap headwind removed; securities added at ~5.2–5.4% yields	Neutral positioning; large time deposit maturities to reprice lower	No major catalyst; expect NIM near Q4 level for 2–3 quarters	Stable
Interest Rate Swaps	One swap terminated Mar-2024; benefit from 2018 terminated swap persists	2018 terminated swap accretion continues; active swaps reduce loan interest	~$2M/quarter accretion through Q3 2025; then stops	Tailwind ends after Q3 2025
Loan Growth & Pipeline	Modest growth; pipeline ~$1.1B; multifamily transition from construction	Pipeline >$1.04B; growth led by multifamily; construction balances down	Pipeline increased in Q4 (construction unfunded); funding cadence discussed ($50–$70M/month)	Steady pipeline; growth constrained by repayments
Asset Quality & OREO	NPAs rose to 0.34% mid-year; credit metrics strong overall	NPAs down to 0.13%; significant resolutions	NPAs 0.16%; $6.0M office OREO (Clayton, MO), marketing underway	Strong, minor sequential uptick due to OREO
Core Conversion & Litigation	Terminated new core; +$2.7M other income from termination	Litigation ongoing; settlement uncertain	Agreement in principle; $2.0M accrued expense; card servicing expansion planned	De-risking; near-term expense impact

Management Commentary

“Our fourth-quarter earnings of $14.9 million, or $1.27 per diluted common share… driven by increased net interest income and strategic loan portfolio growth… despite rising funding costs” .
“We do not currently see any significant catalyst to drive the net interest margin significantly higher or lower from the fourth quarter level in the coming 2 to 3 quarters” .
“Time deposit market rates have begun to decline… we expect to renew at slightly lower rates” .
“An agreement in principle was reached… Master Agreement terminated; card servicing expanded… recorded a $2.0M accrued expense” .

Q&A Highlights

Margin outlook: Analysts queried whether margin bias is higher; management expects stability around Q4 levels, contingent on deposit mix and non-interest-bearing trends .
Deposit competition: Markets remain competitive; negotiated rates allow some reductions as Fed cuts proceed, but pace is dictated by competition .
Expense run-rate: Baseline ~$35M ex one-time, with seasonal Q1 uptick (payroll taxes, merit increases) .
Funding cadence: Unfunded construction lines typically fund $50–$70M/month; portfolio growth likely modest as repayments offset fundings .
OREO asset: $6.0M Clayton, MO office now OREO; property produces cash flow; sale timing opportunistic .

Estimates Context

Attempts to retrieve S&P Global Wall Street consensus (EPS, revenue, # of estimates) for Q4 2024 were unsuccessful due to provider rate limits; as a result, estimate comparisons are unavailable at this time. We will update when S&P Global data becomes accessible.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Core earnings momentum with NII and NIM improvement, despite a $2.0M non-recurring expense; underlying spread management is effective .
Near-term NIM should be stable as CDs reprice lower and competition eases; monitor deposit mix shifts and non-interest-bearing runoff risk .
Swap accretion of ~$2M/quarter persists through Q3 2025, then becomes a headwind; incorporate into 2H25 earnings bridges .
Asset quality remains a strength; the single CRE OREO is in a strong submarket (Clayton), reducing disposition risk; allowance steady at 1.36% .
Liquidity and capital provide flexibility (TCE 9.9%, CET1 12.3%); dividend maintained at $0.40 and buyback capacity remains, though capital also earmarked for sub debt actions .
Operating expenses baseline ~$35M; watch Q1 seasonal uptick and any residual litigation/IT transition expenses as core provider enhancements roll out .
Loan growth likely modest and timing-dependent; construction-to-perm transitions drive mix; repayments could temper headline growth .

Citations: All figures, statements, and management commentary are sourced from the Q4 2024 8-K earnings press release and exhibits , the Jan 21, 2025 press release –, and the Q4 2024 earnings call transcript – and –.

GREAT SOUTHERN BANCORP, INC. (GSBC)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary