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Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • GSBD delivered a clean beat: Primary EPS (NII/share) was $0.40 vs S&P Global consensus $0.36* and Total Investment Income (revenue proxy) was $91.6M vs $88.2M*, aided by elevated originations and tight expense control .*
  • NAV/share fell 2.1% sequentially to $12.75, driven by realized/unrealized losses on legacy names and the distribution framework; non-accruals improved to 1.5% of FV from 1.6% in Q2 .
  • Activity inflected: $470.6M new commitments (highest since 2021), 100% first-lien originations; repayments remained high at $374.4M as the portfolio rotates into newer vintages .
  • Capital position strengthened: unsecured mix rose to 70.2% after issuing $400M 5-year IG notes (5.65% coupon, swapped to floating); net leverage 1.17x remains below the 1.25x target .
  • Dividend framework maintained: Q4 base dividend set at $0.32; Q3 supplemental dividend of $0.04 declared; management reiterated focus on dividend sustainability in a lower-yield environment .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record post-integration origination pace: $470.6M of new commitments across 27 companies; 100% first-lien; GS platform delivered lead roles on seven deals (e.g., Shields Health Solutions take-private; Newtek Merchant Solutions sole-lender financing) .
  • Consistent earnings power and beat vs Street: NII/share of $0.40 (annualized NII yield on book value 12.5%), topping consensus $0.36*; TII of $91.6M also beat; sequential NII/share up from $0.38 .*
  • Credit quality stable-to-better: non-accruals declined to 1.5% of FV (from 1.6% in Q2), interest coverage improved to 1.9x; ongoing portfolio rotation out of pre‑2022 assets supports forward quality .

What Went Wrong

  • NAV pressure persisted: NAV/share fell 2.1% q/q to $12.75; realized/unrealized losses of $(20.6)M reflect continued markdowns on legacy positions despite portfolio health elsewhere .
  • Yield compression: weighted average yield at amortized cost fell to 10.3% (from 10.7% in Q2; 10.8% in Q1) as base rates drifted lower and spreads remained tight; management not expecting near-term spread widening on “A+ credits” .
  • Isolated new non‑accrual: Specialty Dental Brands was added to non‑accrual (small exposure), underscoring idiosyncratic risks within legacy names that also drove some realized/unrealized losses .

Financial Results

Core P&L and Capital Metrics

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Investment Income ($M)$110.4 $96.9 $91.0 $91.6
Net Investment Income after taxes ($M)$68.2 $49.6 $44.5 $45.3
NII per share ($)$0.58 $0.42 $0.38 $0.40
GAAP EPS ($)$0.32 $0.27 $0.34 $0.22
Annualized NII yield on book value (%)12.4% 11.4% 12.5%
NAV per share ($)$13.20 $13.02 $12.75

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Ending Net Debt/Equity (x)1.16x 1.12x 1.17x
New Investment Commitments ($M)$87.8 $247.9 $470.6
Sales & Repayments ($M)$179.3 $288.8 $374.4
Net Funded Investment Activity ($M)$(87.7) $(131.5) $(59.8)
Non‑accruals (% of FV)1.9% 1.6% 1.5%
Weighted Avg Yield at Amortized Cost (%)10.8% 10.7% 10.3%
Portfolio FV ($M)$3,384.7 $3,264.5 $3,196.9
Portfolio Companies (count)163 162 171
Debt Mix: Unsecured (% of principal)48.0% 49.9% 70.2%
Liquidity: Cash & Revolver AvailabilityCash $82.8M; RC avail $720.1M Cash $108.1M; RC avail $792.5M Cash $147.9M; RC avail $1,142.6M

Portfolio Composition (by Fair Value)

Investment TypeQ2 2025Q3 2025
1st Lien/Senior Secured Debt90.2% 93.8%
1st Lien/Last-Out Unitranche5.7% 2.9%
2nd Lien/Senior Secured Debt1.5% 1.5%
Unsecured Debt0.3% 0.3%
Preferred Stock1.3% 0.8%
Common Stock1.0% 0.7%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Base Dividend per shareQ4 2025$0.32 (Q3 base maintained) $0.32 declared Maintained
Supplemental Dividend per shareQ3 2025 (declared post-quarter)$0.03 (Q2 supplemental) $0.04 declared Raised
Special Dividend per shareQ4 2025$0.16 declared for Q3 pay date (announced in Q2) None in Q4; management noted Q3 was last of three specials Lowered/Discontinued

No formal revenue/EPS/OpEx/tax guidance provided. Dividend framework (base + variable supplemental) unchanged since Feb 26, 2025 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Macro & M&A pipelinePortfolio shrinking due to elevated repayments; base dividend reset and specials initiated to right-size payout M&A dollar volumes +40.9% YoY; risk-on sentiment; GS origination engine driving record commitments Improving activity
Dividend policyBase reset to $0.32, with supplemental + special declared in Q1/Q2 Base maintained; $0.04 supplemental; final special now behind Stable base; variable supplemental
Credit qualityNon‑accruals 1.9% FV (Q1), 1.6% (Q2) 1.5% FV; one new non‑accrual (Specialty Dental Brands), tiny exposure; legacy names drive markdowns Gradual improvement, legacy clean‑up
Yield/spreadsWeighted avg yield 10.8% (Q1) → 10.7% (Q2) 10.3% (Q3); spreads tight, not expecting near-term widening on A+ credits Modest compression
Capital markets & fundingNo new unsecured issuance noted Issued $400M 5-yr IG notes at 5.65%; swapped fixed-to-floating; >4x peak orderbook Strengthened, more unsecured
Share repurchases$12.1M (Q2) under new 10b5-1 plan $25.1M in Q3; NAV accretive Increased
AI/technology underwritingNot highlighted in PRsProprietary AI/software disruption risk framework in underwriting for 2+ years Enhanced risk lens

Management Commentary

  • “Our net investment income per share for the quarter was $0.40, and net asset value per share was $12.75... This quarter marks the last of three special dividends that were announced earlier this year.” — Co‑CEO remarks .
  • “New investment commitments... reached the highest level since the integration of the platform in 2022... 100% of our originations during the quarter were in first-lien loans.” — Management on originations .
  • “We remain comfortable with risk dynamics in the private credit space... We have developed a proprietary framework to assess both software and AI disruption risk.” — Macro and risk framework .
  • “We issued $400 million of a five-year investment grade unsecured note with a coupon of 5.65%... hedged by swapping the coupon from fixed to floating.” — CFO on funding strategy .
  • “Overall investments on non‑accrual status decreased to 1.5% of fair value from 1.6%... weighted average interest coverage increased to 1.9x.” — Portfolio health .

Q&A Highlights

  • M&A durability: Management sees current activity as early innings of a longer-term trend, supported by PE dry powder and need for exits; expects more into 2026 .
  • Spreads: Not anticipating broad spread widening near term; GSBD aims to secure premium spreads via unique, platform-led originations rather than “regular way A+ credit” .
  • Credit watch items: Specialty Dental Brands moved to non‑accrual; exposure is sub‑$0.8M and non‑accruals declined to 1.5% of FV; continued markdowns concentrated in legacy names .
  • Strategy focus: Emphasis on dividend maintenance, disciplined underwriting, and rotation out of pre‑2022 assets; buybacks were NAV‑accretive .

Estimates Context

MetricConsensus (S&P Global)ActualSurprise ($)Surprise (%)
EPS (Primary/NII per share)$0.36*$0.40 $0.0411.9%
Total Investment Income ($M)$88.16*$91.60 $3.443.9%

Values with asterisks (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Consensus detail: EPS # of estimates = 4; Revenue # of estimates = 3.* Actuals reflect company-reported NII/share and TII. Results imply modest upward pressure to near-term NII expectations if origination pace sustains and credit costs remain contained.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Earnings quality: Clean NII/share beat with stable-to-better credit metrics; NAV pressure remains largely tied to legacy exposures being worked down .
  • Positive inflection in deployment: Highest commitments since 2021 and 100% first-lien originations suggest GSBD can offset yield drift with volume and mix; Street likely to mark higher near-term NII if activity persists .*
  • Funding advantage: Shift to 70% unsecured and new IG issuance (swapped to floating) improves asset-liability alignment and financial flexibility; leverage remains below 1.25x target, leaving capacity to deploy .
  • Dividend sustainability: Base $0.32 maintained; supplemental variable continues ($0.04 this quarter), with management focused on maintaining payout in a lower-rate environment .
  • Watch yield dynamics: Weighted portfolio yield is compressing with lower base rates and tight spreads; outperformance will hinge on platform-led origination and disciplined credit selection .
  • Portfolio de‑risking: Non‑accruals trended down and legacy markdowns concentrated; continued rotation should support steadier NAV once legacy names are resolved .
  • Trading setup: Beat on EPS and revenue vs consensus, accelerating commitments, and a supportive funding mix are near-term positives; NAV trajectory remains the swing factor for medium‑term multiple support .*

Additional Detail from Q3 Press Release

  • TII: $91.6M; NII after taxes: $45.3M; Adjusted NII after taxes: $44.8M; Net realized/unrealized losses: $(20.6)M; NII/share: $0.40; GAAP EPS: $0.22 .
  • Portfolio: FV $3,196.9M; 171 companies; 98.2% senior secured, 96.7% first lien .
  • Activity: New commitments $470.6M; Sales/repayments $374.4M; Net funded activity $(59.8)M .
  • Credit: Non‑accruals 1.5% FV / 2.5% amortized cost; weighted avg yield at amortized cost 10.3%; leverage 1.17x .
  • Liquidity: $147.9M cash; $1,142.6M revolver availability; blended debt cost ~5.37% .

S&P Global estimates disclaimer: Consensus values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.