GS
Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- GSBD delivered a clean beat: Primary EPS (NII/share) was $0.40 vs S&P Global consensus $0.36* and Total Investment Income (revenue proxy) was $91.6M vs $88.2M*, aided by elevated originations and tight expense control .*
- NAV/share fell 2.1% sequentially to $12.75, driven by realized/unrealized losses on legacy names and the distribution framework; non-accruals improved to 1.5% of FV from 1.6% in Q2 .
- Activity inflected: $470.6M new commitments (highest since 2021), 100% first-lien originations; repayments remained high at $374.4M as the portfolio rotates into newer vintages .
- Capital position strengthened: unsecured mix rose to 70.2% after issuing $400M 5-year IG notes (5.65% coupon, swapped to floating); net leverage 1.17x remains below the 1.25x target .
- Dividend framework maintained: Q4 base dividend set at $0.32; Q3 supplemental dividend of $0.04 declared; management reiterated focus on dividend sustainability in a lower-yield environment .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record post-integration origination pace: $470.6M of new commitments across 27 companies; 100% first-lien; GS platform delivered lead roles on seven deals (e.g., Shields Health Solutions take-private; Newtek Merchant Solutions sole-lender financing) .
- Consistent earnings power and beat vs Street: NII/share of $0.40 (annualized NII yield on book value 12.5%), topping consensus $0.36*; TII of $91.6M also beat; sequential NII/share up from $0.38 .*
- Credit quality stable-to-better: non-accruals declined to 1.5% of FV (from 1.6% in Q2), interest coverage improved to 1.9x; ongoing portfolio rotation out of pre‑2022 assets supports forward quality .
What Went Wrong
- NAV pressure persisted: NAV/share fell 2.1% q/q to $12.75; realized/unrealized losses of $(20.6)M reflect continued markdowns on legacy positions despite portfolio health elsewhere .
- Yield compression: weighted average yield at amortized cost fell to 10.3% (from 10.7% in Q2; 10.8% in Q1) as base rates drifted lower and spreads remained tight; management not expecting near-term spread widening on “A+ credits” .
- Isolated new non‑accrual: Specialty Dental Brands was added to non‑accrual (small exposure), underscoring idiosyncratic risks within legacy names that also drove some realized/unrealized losses .
Financial Results
Core P&L and Capital Metrics
KPIs and Balance Sheet
Portfolio Composition (by Fair Value)
Guidance Changes
No formal revenue/EPS/OpEx/tax guidance provided. Dividend framework (base + variable supplemental) unchanged since Feb 26, 2025 .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our net investment income per share for the quarter was $0.40, and net asset value per share was $12.75... This quarter marks the last of three special dividends that were announced earlier this year.” — Co‑CEO remarks .
- “New investment commitments... reached the highest level since the integration of the platform in 2022... 100% of our originations during the quarter were in first-lien loans.” — Management on originations .
- “We remain comfortable with risk dynamics in the private credit space... We have developed a proprietary framework to assess both software and AI disruption risk.” — Macro and risk framework .
- “We issued $400 million of a five-year investment grade unsecured note with a coupon of 5.65%... hedged by swapping the coupon from fixed to floating.” — CFO on funding strategy .
- “Overall investments on non‑accrual status decreased to 1.5% of fair value from 1.6%... weighted average interest coverage increased to 1.9x.” — Portfolio health .
Q&A Highlights
- M&A durability: Management sees current activity as early innings of a longer-term trend, supported by PE dry powder and need for exits; expects more into 2026 .
- Spreads: Not anticipating broad spread widening near term; GSBD aims to secure premium spreads via unique, platform-led originations rather than “regular way A+ credit” .
- Credit watch items: Specialty Dental Brands moved to non‑accrual; exposure is sub‑$0.8M and non‑accruals declined to 1.5% of FV; continued markdowns concentrated in legacy names .
- Strategy focus: Emphasis on dividend maintenance, disciplined underwriting, and rotation out of pre‑2022 assets; buybacks were NAV‑accretive .
Estimates Context
Values with asterisks (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.
Consensus detail: EPS # of estimates = 4; Revenue # of estimates = 3.* Actuals reflect company-reported NII/share and TII. Results imply modest upward pressure to near-term NII expectations if origination pace sustains and credit costs remain contained.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Earnings quality: Clean NII/share beat with stable-to-better credit metrics; NAV pressure remains largely tied to legacy exposures being worked down .
- Positive inflection in deployment: Highest commitments since 2021 and 100% first-lien originations suggest GSBD can offset yield drift with volume and mix; Street likely to mark higher near-term NII if activity persists .*
- Funding advantage: Shift to 70% unsecured and new IG issuance (swapped to floating) improves asset-liability alignment and financial flexibility; leverage remains below 1.25x target, leaving capacity to deploy .
- Dividend sustainability: Base $0.32 maintained; supplemental variable continues ($0.04 this quarter), with management focused on maintaining payout in a lower-rate environment .
- Watch yield dynamics: Weighted portfolio yield is compressing with lower base rates and tight spreads; outperformance will hinge on platform-led origination and disciplined credit selection .
- Portfolio de‑risking: Non‑accruals trended down and legacy markdowns concentrated; continued rotation should support steadier NAV once legacy names are resolved .
- Trading setup: Beat on EPS and revenue vs consensus, accelerating commitments, and a supportive funding mix are near-term positives; NAV trajectory remains the swing factor for medium‑term multiple support .*
Additional Detail from Q3 Press Release
- TII: $91.6M; NII after taxes: $45.3M; Adjusted NII after taxes: $44.8M; Net realized/unrealized losses: $(20.6)M; NII/share: $0.40; GAAP EPS: $0.22 .
- Portfolio: FV $3,196.9M; 171 companies; 98.2% senior secured, 96.7% first lien .
- Activity: New commitments $470.6M; Sales/repayments $374.4M; Net funded activity $(59.8)M .
- Credit: Non‑accruals 1.5% FV / 2.5% amortized cost; weighted avg yield at amortized cost 10.3%; leverage 1.17x .
- Liquidity: $147.9M cash; $1,142.6M revolver availability; blended debt cost ~5.37% .
S&P Global estimates disclaimer: Consensus values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.