Ferroglobe - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Transcript

Speaker 5

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ferroglobe PLC's second quarter 2025 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference call may be recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to Alex Rotonen, Ferroglobe PLC's Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Speaker 4

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Ferroglobe's second quarter 2025 conference call. Joining me today are Marco Levi, our Chief Executive Officer, and Beatriz García-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started with some prepared remarks, I'm going to read a brief statement. Please turn to slide two at this time. Statements made by management during this conference call that are forward-looking are based on current expectations. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements can be found in Ferroglobe's most recent SEC filings and exhibits to those filings, which are available on our website at ferroglobe.com. In addition, this discussion includes references to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross debt, adjusted net debt, and adjusted diluted earnings per share, among other non-IFRS measures. Reconciliation of non-IFRS measures may be found in our most recent SEC filings.

Before I turn the call over to Marco Levi, our Chief Executive Officer, I want to announce that we'll be participating in the Seaport Virtual Conference on August 19th and 20th, and the IDEAS Midwest Conference in Chicago on August 27th. We hope to see you there. Marco.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Alex, and thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your continued interest in Ferroglobe. There is a rapidly evolving market environment, particularly on the trade front, resulting in elevated uncertainty and limited visibility around global trade policy and regulatory developments. This was particularly evident as it relates to global tariffs, safeguards, and trade measures both in Europe and in the U.S., adding complexity to an already challenging market environment. Despite these headwinds, we are pleased with the recent progress, as evidenced by the newly agreed trade framework between the U.S. and the EU, signaling a shift toward greater clarity and cooperation. This development is expected to reduce disruptions and provide improved visibility across global markets. As these measures take effect, we are optimistic that the uncertainties will be resolved in the near term, creating a stronger and more stable market environment heading into 2026.

However, given the current uncertainty and limited visibility on market dynamics, trade measures, and tariff structures, we believe that it is prudent to withdraw our 2025 guidance at this time. We will revisit it once we have greater clarity on these key matters. I'll now walk through several key developments and uncertainties, many of which we believe will ultimately support a strong outlook for our industry. As discussed previously, the European Commission launched a safeguard investigation last December into silicon metal, silicon-based alloys, and manganese-based alloys, a significant and necessary step to address unfair trade practices. The preliminary decision, which was initially expected in May, has not been officially announced. At this time, we don't know what measures will be adopted or what the timing will be. As a result of delays, we believe that Ferroglobe will benefit from these measures in 2026.

As Chairman of EURO-LIANGE, I am actively engaged with its industry participants, EU member states, and other stakeholders to advocate for a positive outcome to ensure necessary protections for our industry. Our products play an essential role in many key industries such as aluminum, chemicals, steel, solar, microchips, and most critically, defense. With a final EU decision due by the end of November, we are optimistic that the strategic importance of our industry will result in a favorable outcome. The final implementation of safeguards requires approval from at least 15 of the 27 EU member states and by states representing at least 65% of the population. Adding to the uncertainty are trade tensions involving the United States. While a key preliminary trade deal was reached with the EU, many others remain undecided. One of the key U.S.

trade negotiations is with Canada, which is an important supplier of aluminum and steel to the United States. There is a lack of clarity regarding how and when these trade policies will be finalized, which affects our business and overall global trade. In addition, we are waiting for the outcome of the U.S. Silicon Metal Trade Case, which was filed in April, with the preliminary countervailing duties decision expected in late September, and anti-dumping decision expected two months later in late November. The countries investigated are Angola, Australia, Laos, Norway, and Thailand. One of the key developments this quarter was a notable decline in European silicon metal prices, which was driven by a substantial increase in imports from China. These aggressively low-priced imports have placed considerable pressure on the market, where EU 27 producers' market share has dropped from 40% just a few years ago to approximately 15% today.

This surge in imports is not only undermining local producers but also destabilizing pricing across the region. As a result, silicon metal indexes in Europe have declined by approximately 20% in just the past month. This sharp drop has created a considerable market disruption, making visibility into future supply and pricing very difficult. While macro conditions remain challenging and unpredictable, we continue to focus on things that we can control and manage the business with discipline, maintaining operational efficiency and a strong focus on discretionary cost control. Our actions, combined with our operational excellence, enabled us to deliver positive adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter. At the same time, we remain committed to returning capital to shareholders. In the second quarter, we purchased 600,000 shares for $2 million and paid $2.6 million in dividends.

Looking ahead to 2026, we see several positive developments on the horizon that are expected to significantly enhance our performance. First, we are beginning to see tangible benefits in the U.S. market from the anti-dumping and countervailing duties imposed last year on ferrosilicon imports from Russia, Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Malaysia. Additionally, newly announced tariffs targeting major Asian ferrosilicon importers to the U.S., like Vietnam and Malaysia, plus India, would be imposed with minimum tariffs ranging from 20% to 40%, along with any applicable anti-dumping duties. Brazil ferrosilicon producers, by comparison, face 50% tariffs plus both anti-dumping and countervailing duties. These tariffs should further improve the market dynamics in the U.S. In fact, during the second quarter, we recorded the highest volume of ferrosilicon sales in the past eight quarters, a clear indication of how the U.S. trade actions are supporting domestic producers.

We expect this trend to continue in the coming quarters. Another reason for the positive outlook for 2026 is the expected benefit from EU safeguard measures, as previously mentioned. Besides this trade-related event, there are additional encouraging macro developments anticipated to benefit Ferroglobe. Production containments of silicon metal are taking place in China, Europe, and Brazil, indicating that the current price level is unsustainable. We are optimistic that these actions will help stabilize the market and reverse the recent price trend. Another important factor for the coming month is that NATO has committed to increasing defense-related spending substantially, which is expected to boost the steel and aluminum industries. Importantly, the NATO countries are in our key markets, Europe and North America. In addition, Germany has committed to investing more than $500 billion in its infrastructure.

More specific to Ferroglobe, our operational flexibility to optimize production enables us to better match the market need. Recently, we switched two silicon metal furnaces to ferrosilicon, one in the U.S. and one in Europe, due to better economics. This allows us to increase ferrosilicon production by approximately 35,000-40,000 tons annually. To reiterate our strategic advantage, being a local company with a vertical supply chain integration positions us well to take advantage of any tariffs or trade restrictions in the U.S. or Europe. Ferroglobe reached an important milestone on June 30 by joining the Russell 2000 and 3000 indexes. This increases our visibility among institutional investors and improves trading liquidity, delivering sustainable value to our shareholders. Next slide, please. As we anticipated on our last earnings call, the second quarter showed substantial improvement in our performance, with a 27% increase in volumes and a 26% increase in revenue.

Our adjusted EBITDA rebounded to a positive $22 million from a loss in the first quarter, while remaining net cash positive. Next slide, please. Moving to our segment update, I'll start with silicon metal on slide five. While shipments increased substantially over the first quarter, Q2 volumes were still impacted by weak demand and low-priced silicon metal imports from China into the EU. Overall volumes improved 23% over the previous quarter, mainly as a result of our contract structure due to the restart of our French operation at the beginning of April. The main driver of these predatory imports was the collapse of the polysilicon market in Asia, which continues into the third quarter. Polysilicon prices have recovered from their lows, but remain well below earlier levels.

Until the Asian polysilicon market recovers further or relevant safeguards become effective, silicon metal imports from China to the EU are likely to continue. The chemical sector weakness persists, as aggressive silicon metal imports have resulted in oversupply in the US and Europe. Our increased focus on the aluminum segment is yielding positive results on volumes. The impact of Chinese imports was pronounced in Europe, with index prices declining 33% from €2,450 to €1,650 in the second quarter. At the same time, the US index increased by 3%. Next slide, please. The silicon-based alloys market also showed a robust volume increase in the second quarter, with a 24% jump in overall volumes. The main reason for the increase was the restart of our French operations, followed by improved demand in the US, which was helped by the favored trade decision against Russia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Brazil.

The second quarter was the strongest shipment quarter in three years, with the EU and US improving volumes by 43% and 6% respectively over the first quarter. While shipments were up across our footprint, the pricing was a tale of two markets. In the US, the demand was driven by higher steel production and ferrosilicon trade decisions, which bolstered the index price by 10% to $1.26 per pound. In contrast, the European prices declined by 8%, primarily due to weakness in the regional steel production. We expect the EU market to begin improving in 2026 for both volumes and prices as the safeguards decision becomes effective. Next slide, please. Our manganese segment was our strongest segment, with volume increasing 31% over the first quarter. This was our highest shipment volume quarter in three years.

Part of the improvement over Q1 was the restart of French operations and delayed shipments carried over from Q1 due to low manganese ore inventories. Manganese alloy index prices declined in the second quarter by 6% and 11% respectively for ferromanganese and silicon manganese. The outlook for manganese demand remains strong, and we expect robust performance from this segment in the coming quarters, further supported by potential safeguards, which could serve as a catalyst for accelerated growth. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Beatriz García-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer, to review the financial results in more detail. Beatriz?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Marco. Please turn to slide nine for a review of the income statement. Sales increased 26% in the second quarter to $387 million, while raw material cost increased only 6%, driving significant improvement in margin with raw material as a percentage of sales declining to 66% from 78% in the previous quarter. This improvement reflects better fixed cost absorption as production ramped up, particularly in France, and also lower energy costs. Top line growth was driven by a 27% increase in volumes across all product categories, along with higher average selling prices, primarily in the manganese-based alloys segment, which was up 9%. The increase in volumes was primarily attributable to the restart of our French operations. Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 improved substantially, increasing to $22 million versus a loss of $27 million in Q1, an improvement of $48 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the second quarter was 6%.

The margin increase was largely cost-driven, supported by both volume and price improvement. Next slide, please. Silicon metal revenue increased to $130 million in the second quarter, up 24% over Q1. The increase was driven by a 23% increase in shipments, combined with a 1% increase in average selling prices. Volume gains were strongest in EMEA, supported by the restart of our French operations. Adjusted EBITDA for silicon metal shrunk from $15 million loss in Q1 to a $7 million gain in Q2, with margins improving to 5%, up from negative 15% in the first quarter. This primarily reflects cost improvement resulting from stronger production levels, lower energy cost, and better fixed cost absorption. Next slide, please. Silicon-based alloys revenue rose 23% to $112 million, supported by a 24% increase in shipments. Pricing was slightly lower, down 1% versus the prior quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA increased significantly from $2 million in Q1 to $7 million in Q2, tripling quarter over quarter. Margins expanded from 3% to 6%, driven by improved fixed cost absorption, resulting from a significant increase in production volumes as a result of our French operations. Next slide, please. Manganese-based alloys post the strongest improvement, with revenue up 43% to $106 million. This was driven by a 31% increase in volumes, combined with a 9% increase in average selling prices. Adjusted EBITDA improved from a $6 million loss to a profit of $17 million, with margins reaching 16%. These gains were fueled by higher throughput, improved cost absorption, and contributions from the resumed French operations, partially offset by the higher cost of manganese ore. Next slide, please. During the second quarter, we generated $16 million in operating cash flow, reflecting a working capital release of $14 million.

Please note that the difference in working capital between cash flow and balance sheet is the decline or depreciation in the U.S. dollar. In addition, we collected a $7 million energy rebate related to our 2025 energy contract and paid $12 million of income taxes. Capital expenditures totaled $6.0 million in Q2, up slightly from the prior quarter. Despite the tough market conditions, our free cash flow for the second quarter was neutral. Next slide, please. During the second quarter, we preserved a strong balance sheet while maintaining our dividend and continuing our share repurchase program. During the quarter, we repurchased 600,000 shares at an average price of $3.31 for a total of $2 million. Since initiating share buybacks in the third quarter of 2024, we have repurchased a total of 1.9 million shares for approximately $7 million. We will continue to do so opportunistically.

We also made an additional $4 million investment in Corshell, bringing our total to $10 million to support the 60-amp pilot plant. We remained net cash positive at the end of the quarter, with a balance of $10 million versus $19 million at the end of the first quarter. Adjusted gross debt at the end of the second quarter was $125 million, up from $110 million in the prior quarter. In addition, in June, we made the final SEPI loan principal repayment of $18 million. Our year-to-date CapEx was $30 million. At this time, I will turn the call back to Marco.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Beatriz. Before opening the call to Q&A, I'd like to provide key takeaways from today's presentation on slide 15. First, due to increased uncertainty in the market, particularly around trade actions and volatile pricing in Europe, we are withdrawing our annual guidance. Visibility remains limited, and we believe this is the most prudent course of action until we have greater clarity. However, we expect the ongoing EU safeguard decision to reduce price pressure from imports, paving the way for robust market conditions in 2026. In the U.S., where we have seen a tangible improvement in the ferrosilicon market, we expect trade policies and anti-dumping actions to improve the market further. Despite some external headwinds, we continue to navigate the environment effectively, as highlighted by our second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $22 million.

Our operational discipline, cost control, and strong balance sheet, along with our flexible global footprint, position us well to manage through near-term volatility. Looking ahead, we are optimistic about 2026 and expect meaningful tailwinds from trade decisions in both U.S. and Europe, along with early signs of supply containment. These developments should significantly improve the operating environment next year. Operator, we're ready for questions.

Speaker 5

Thank you. We'll ask a question. Please press star one-one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one-one again. We will now take the first question. From the line of Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners, please go ahead.

Speaker 0

Hello. Good day, everyone. Wanted to quickly touch on why note the annual EBITDA guide was withdrawn. Do you have any visibility wherein you can speak to any forward-looking metrics like price, volume, cost, or broader qualitative views on the second half of this year for the company?

Speaker 2

Sure. At this stage, Martin, thank you for the question. At this stage, like we said, we are in an extremely uncertain environment, like I said in my speech. Uncertain beyond overall global trade tariffs, but also tariffs related to our business, both in terms of safeguards and anti-dumping. The big emerging factor in the second quarter has been the massive import of silicon metal from China at extremely low prices. We are talking about $1,100, $1,200 import price. You have to add duties and transportation. We have faced market prices of €1,400, €1,600 per ton that we could not simply match. By the way, it's not only Ferroglobe. It's most of the industry that cannot match these prices.

This is why we keep on hearing about production containments in Ireland, in Germany, in Brazil, and also China, because I think at this price, import price level basically gets to the cash cost of the best Chinese producers. Also, most of the Chinese players lose money at this level. As a consequence, waiting for more clear decisions is very difficult to project volume and prices for the rest of the year. From there, our suffered decision to withdraw the guidance for the rest of the year.

Speaker 0

Do you feel like there's any risk that EBITDA could revert negative again before the end of the year, or is that just unknown right now?

Speaker 2

We don't know the amount of EBITDA, but we know that we are going to deliver positive EBITDA again. Giving forecasts is impossible due to the current situations.

Speaker 0

Okay. Understood. Appreciate that the visibility is challenged out there because of the tariffs. Kind of along those lines with U.S. tariffs, can you touch on any exposure you might have here in the supply chain, meaning on the cost side of the business and implications for your facilities, and also how it's impacted Becancour?

Speaker 2

Yeah. From Becancour, Martin, at this point in time, Becancour is not impacted because silicon metal imports from Canada to the U.S. are not impacted at this stage with any trade measure. Talking about critical raw materials, as you know, we're pulling back integrated and fuel materials in the U.S., and we don't have any specific problem in Europe. We have to make some corrective actions on more raw materials like specific rare earths, but we have been solving the problem. This has not been impacting overall our supply chain at this stage.

Speaker 0

Can you remind us of what specific rare earth exposure you might have?

Speaker 2

A lot depends on the founder's formulation, but we're talking about bismuth, germanium, tellurium, mainly these three products. Of course, we have to see what happens with magnesium because the major producer of magnesium, guess what, is China. At the moment, we have been able to secure this supply. By the way, magnesium is not ready.

Speaker 0

All right. I appreciate the detail. Good luck. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Martin.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Martin.

Speaker 5

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Nick Giles from B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Operator. Good morning, everyone. My first question on the EU safeguards, it's encouraging to hear of the progress thus far. Should we have a price floor or a minimum import price in mind, or how should we think about overall structure? I was curious if you could speak to how volumes could respond in each of your product categories and any clarifying points on timing when this could really be implemented. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Okay. First of all, we don't know what is included in the decision of the European Commission. There have been a lot of speculations on the products covered, on the mechanism to protect our industry in Europe, but there is no final decision. As a consequence, I don't want to speculate on that. I just want to confirm that we keep on asking for safeguards covering our complete product mix: silicon metal, manganese-based alloys, calcium silicon, ferrosilicon, and foundry. We expect a preliminary decision on August 18, 2019, and the final decision on November 20. Speculating now on the impact, I think, is not a good exercise at this stage. What I want to underline is that we are still engaged with the European Commission on working on their final decision.

This makes us feel rather optimistic about having an outcome, which outcome we will see, and we will talk at the right time.

Speaker 1

Fair enough. Thanks for that, Marco. I guess maybe a follow-up to that. As we look across your three main product categories, which of your assets in Europe should we think about as best positioned to respond with higher volumes, assuming a favorable outcome in the safeguards?

Speaker 2

Yeah. You know, I want to remind you that the overall safeguard initiative is related to restore the local supply of critical and strategic raw materials at a rate of maximum 40%. So 60% will still be imported. This is a critical thing. Talking about our plants, of course, in particular, the silicon metal plants that run at a much higher rate, starting from Sabone in Spain, moving to Morichet, Anglefort, and Loudun in France. We have converted most of Loudun production already to ferrosilicon. The other plants are either manganese plants or foundry plants. Manganese is running well volume-wise. When you move, you know, safeguards Europe may impact also to a certain extent our production of foundry products in South Africa. At this stage, we are not operating any smelting facility in South Africa.

Speaker 1

That's helpful. Maybe just more on the U.S. side. I mean, you mentioned switching some furnaces from silicon metal to ferrosilicon. Apologies if I missed it, but you know, what's the overall volume impact, and any color on what the potential impact to EBITDA could be at current prices?

Speaker 2

Yes, we have switched one furnace in Beverly, Ohio, from silicon metal to ferrosilicon due to the increased demand of ferrosilicon in the U.S. We have switched one of the large furnaces in Loudun from silicon metal to ferrosilicon. The U.S. margin is supported by the price restoration in the second quarter at about 10%. It is positive EBITDA while the decision on Loudun is related to market opportunities in ferrosilicon due to our advantage cost position in France versus lack of business in the silicon metal arena.

Speaker 1

Thank you for that. One more, if I could. You did have an update on your Corshell investment, and apologies if I missed it there. Is there anything to highlight from a safeguard or trade case perspective that would ultimately benefit Corshell or silicon-rich anode technology more broadly? Thank you.

Speaker 2

First of all, you also can see that a very high %, ultra-high % of graphite comes from China. There is a natural positive push toward replacing graphite with silicon. As mentioned in our pitch, we have increased our participation in Corshell. During the second quarter, the new pilot plants started operating very smoothly. The first earths were produced, and the first results in cycle efficiency are simply outstanding. We are in the process of sampling the first earths to major OEMs in the U.S. and Europe.

Speaker 1

Guys, thank you so much for the update today, and continue best of luck.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 5

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand back over to Marco Levi for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

All of you, thank you again for your participation. We look forward to updating you on the next call in November. Have a great day.

Speaker 5

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.