Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- Ferroglobe's investment in Coreshell and strategic partnerships in the electric vehicle battery market position it to capitalize on significant growth in silicon metal consumption. The company believes Coreshell's technology will speed up the massive introduction of silicon metal in batteries, potentially leading to significant growth in the next three years. ,
- Ferroglobe is preparing to meet rising demand in the U.S. silicon metal market by restarting capacity at its Selma facility with two furnaces and planning a potential brownfield expansion. The company expects silicon metal demand in the West to grow by at least 200,000 tons over the next five years, and is taking steps to ensure it can supply this demand without increasing leverage. ,
- The company is in a net cash positive position, with improved operations and a fixed balance sheet, giving it strategic flexibility to pursue growth opportunities in the battery and solar markets. This strong financial position enhances its ability to invest in expansions and partnerships.
- Weak demand and declining prices in Europe for silicon metal and ferrosilicon are expected to impact Ferroglobe's performance in that region. The company noted that while they have restarted plants in France, they "don't see an improvement in demand. On the contrary, aluminum market seems to be even weaker than in the previous quarters. So I would be very cautious on volume expectations in Europe."
- Rising manganese ore prices are increasing costs for the company's manganese-based alloys segment, while demand is weak in Europe. The CEO stated, "As I mentioned before, manganese price is skyrocketing, and this is very difficult for us because we sell in Europe where steel demand... is reduced... So demand is not there and the ore price is going up."
- Energy market prices in Europe are expected to rise in the second half of the year, potentially increasing operational costs and impacting profitability. The company anticipates that "energy market price in Europe in the second half of the year is expected to go up. So... there are also a lot of challenges, particularly in Europe."
-
Guidance Update
Q: What's holding back increasing the high end of the guidance?
A: We're facing multiple, sometimes opposing factors impacting our outlook. In Europe, demand is very weak, and prices are trending down for silicon metal and ferrosilicon. In the U.S., demand and pricing are stronger. Manganese alloy prices are affected by rising manganese ore costs, and energy prices in Europe are expected to rise in the second half. We've increased the bottom of our guidance due to slightly better prices and cost reduction efforts, but challenges remain, particularly in Europe. -
U.S. Brownfield Expansion
Q: Can you provide more details on the potential U.S. brownfield expansion?
A: At this stage, it's premature to provide more details. Initially, we'll restart capacity in Selma with two furnaces. We expect significant growth in the West for silicon metal demand—about 200,000 tons minimum in the next 5 years. To satisfy this demand, we're applying for a permit in the U.S. We don't intend to become highly leveraged, so we'll consider financing options including our own cash, U.S. subsidies, and leveraging partnerships. -
Investment in Coreshell
Q: What is the size and rationale of your investment in Coreshell?
A: Our initial investment is a few million dollars, with the right to further invest in the next capital raise. Our tests with Coreshell's technology are extremely promising, using our European-produced silicon. Their solution allows faster charging and longer battery life without changing the battery manufacturing process. Early next year, we'll produce 60 lithium batteries for testing in the automotive industry, aiming for significant growth in about 3 years, if successful. -
Strategic Priorities
Q: What are the company's strategic priorities over the next few years?
A: While our core business remains largely unchanged and linked to market dynamics, we're extremely bullish about the future. We're engaged in strategic discussions with partners in the battery market, particularly in the U.S. and Europe. We've invested in Coreshell and believe their solution will accelerate the massive introduction of silicon metal in batteries. We're also involved in new solar supply chains outside of China and are ready to exploit these opportunities. Our aspiration is to dramatically grow the company by expanding the silicon metal envelope. -
Unit Cost Expectations
Q: Could you touch on unit cost expectations across the businesses in 2Q?
A: In the second half, we expect lower energy credits—$40 million in 2024 vs $186 million in 2023—which will impact EBITDA in terms of cost. CO2 indirect compensation will be higher in the second half, partially offsetting increased energy prices. Raw materials will partially offset rising energy costs. Additionally, manganese costs are going up significantly due to an Australian shutdown; this will start impacting manganese alloys costs in Q3. We're working to increase alloy prices to reestablish the margin between manganese ore and final manganese alloy pricing. -
Silicon Metal Volumes
Q: What are your silicon metal volume expectations for the year, especially in 2Q?
A: We've restarted our plants in France in Q2, so we expect higher volumes. U.S. demand is strong, with better silicon and aluminum demand, and we expect the U.S. to become more robust. In Europe, we don't see an improvement; in fact, the aluminum market seems weaker than previous quarters, so we're cautious on volume expectations there. -
Working Capital
Q: Any major working capital considerations for the balance of the year?
A: We might see a small additional consumption of working capital due to ramp-ups in our plants and rising raw material costs like manganese ore affecting inventory values. Working capital can be lumpy, but overall, we expect a balanced picture. -
Partnerships Growth
Q: Are your partnerships referencing JVs or recent battery market collaborations?
A: We're referencing all kinds of partnerships. We have a partnership with [indiscernible] chemical at our plants, and the growth in silicon metal impacts both them and Ferroglobe. We're also talking about partnerships that may mature in the solar supply chain or the battery supply chain. We've announced our partnership with Coreshell, and as the main player in the West, we've been approached by other supply chain players. We have different opportunities than others. -
Executive Share Ownership
Q: Did your and Mr. Madrid's increased shareholdings result from grants or open market purchases?
A: It's due to both grants and open market purchases.