GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. (GTE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 was operationally resilient but financially softer: WI production averaged 42,685 boepd (down 10% q/q; up 30% y/y) as a landslide in Ecuador and Moqueta trunk line repairs deferred volumes; net loss widened to $20M; Adjusted EBITDA fell to $69M .
• Management expects the lower end of FY2025 production guidance and guided to a Q4 exit rate of 47,000–50,000 boepd; liquidity was enhanced via a $200M Oriente crude prepayment and an increased C$75M Canadian credit facility .
• Exploration success continued: Conejo A-1 tested at 1,328 bopd; Conejo A-2 encountered 41 ft net reservoir; Chanangue-1 re-entry producing ~600 bopd; Cohembi waterflood lifted northern area output ~135% to 6,700 gross bopd (field >9,000 gross bopd) .
• Estimate context: EPS consensus coverage appears limited; actual EPS of $(0.57) contrasted with thin coverage and revenue of $149.3M; EBITDA declined to $59.2M; expect estimate revisions to reflect higher opex and deferred volumes (values from S&P Global* and company filings) .
• Key catalysts: Ecuador development ramp following exploration commitments completion, Cohembi waterflood strength, Canada Montney well performance, deleveraging enabled by prepayment facility; near-term narrative hinges on Q4 exit run-rate delivery and 2026 FCF-focused budget .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Ecuador exploration momentum: “Conejo A-1… produced at stabilized rates… 1,328 bopd… Conejo A-2… discovered 41 ft of net reservoir… suggesting high deliverability…,” plus Chanangue-1 re-entry producing ~600 bopd .
• Colombia waterflood execution: Cohembi northern area output +135% (2,800 → 6,700 gross bopd); total field >9,000 gross bopd—highest since 2014; Costayaco 63–65 added ~1,700 bopd combined during the quarter .
• Capital structure optimization: $200M Oriente prepayment and Canadian facility increased to C$75M with extended tenor to Oct 31, 2027, supporting liquidity and deleveraging priorities .

What Went Wrong

• Deferred volumes: Landslide in Ecuador and Moqueta trunk line repairs shut in production for weeks; WI production fell 10% q/q; gross profit dropped 36% q/q and 70% y/y; per-boe operating netback fell to $18.89 .
• Higher operating costs: Total opex rose 22% q/q to $68M, driven by workovers and Ecuador inventory/lifting costs; gross profit per boe fell to $3.62 (from $5.54 q/q and $16.45 y/y) .
• Earnings softness: Net loss widened to $19.95M; Funds Flow from Operations fell to $41.7M; Adjusted EBITDA slid to $69.0M amid lower sales volumes and higher costs .

Financial Results

Segment breakdown (Operating Netback and production):

Key KPIs and cost metrics:

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was not available; call scheduling and webcast links were provided .

Management Commentary

• “The Third Quarter showcased continued operational success across our portfolio… [Ecuador] Conejo A-1 and A-2… new discovery at Chanangue-1… In Colombia… Cohembi field delivered a strong waterflood response… In Canada… two additional Lower Montney wells onstream, both meeting or exceeding expectations.” — Gary Guidry, President & CEO .
• “We are… forecasting the lower end of our production guidance range… expected exit rate of 47,000 to 50,000 boepd… focus turns to free cash flow generation… and deleveraging.” — Gary Guidry .
• CFO perspective on prepayment facility: “The prepayment agreement… enhances financial flexibility and further strengthens our capital structure.” — Ryan Ellson .

Q&A Highlights

• The Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was not available in the documents catalog; only scheduling and webcast details were provided. As a result, specific Q&A themes and clarifications cannot be cited from primary source transcripts for Q3 2025 .

Estimates Context

• Q2 EPS beat: actual $(0.36) vs $(0.43) consensus (smaller loss), aided by lower differentials and opex per boe; Q1 missed (larger loss than consensus), reflecting lower prices and higher DD&A; Q3 EPS consensus unavailable, limiting direct beat/miss assessment (values retrieved from S&P Global*).
• Revenue consensus was not available across the reviewed quarters; expect street to reduce near-term cash flow estimates on higher opex and deferred volumes, while medium-term revisions may improve with Q4 exit-rate delivery and Ecuador development .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Near-term: Monitor recovery of deferred Ecuador volumes and Moqueta repairs; delivery of the 47–50k boepd exit rate is the key stock narrative into year-end .
• Medium-term: With exploration commitments substantially complete, 2026 budget pivots to FCF generation; prepayment facility and extended Canadian lines improve deleveraging capacity .
• Operational alpha: Cohembi waterflood response and Costayaco infill support South America stability; Conejo discoveries de-risk Ecuador development inventory .
• Cost/differentials: Favorable South American differentials persisted, but Q3 opex elevation pressures per-boe netbacks; watch normalization as operations stabilize .
• Canada portfolio: Montney wells trending above expectations provide diversification and liquids uplift; continued optimization could cushion portfolio volatility .
• Valuation drivers: Execution on exit run-rate, visible FCF in 2026 plan, and leverage reduction are primary rerating catalysts; absence of Q3 call transcript reduces immediate qualitative color, putting more weight on Q4 results and budget disclosure .
• Risk checks: Commodity price volatility, operational disruptions (e.g., landslides), and execution on Ecuador development phases remain key risks flagged in filings .

Citations:
Press release and 8-K Q3 results .
Q3 press release detailed tables and highlights .
Prepayment facility press release . NCIB press release .
Q2 press release & 8-K .
Q1 press release & 8-K .

Disclaimer: Values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.