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CI

CHART INDUSTRIES INC (GTLS)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered record orders ($1.68B, +43.9% YoY) and 34.1% gross margin, but GAAP EPS was impacted by a $266M termination fee related to the Flowserve merger; adjusted EPS was $2.78 while sales were $1.10B (+3.6% YoY) .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, Chart missed on adjusted EPS ($2.78 vs $3.12*), revenue ($1.10B vs $1.186B*), and EBITDA ($266.1M* vs $308.5M*); drivers included a difficult RSL comparison and the absence of large orders in Q4 guidance commentary .
  • Adjusted operating margin reached a record 22.9%; adjusted EBITDA was $277.1M (25.2% of sales), aided by HTS mix (LNG and data centers) and productivity improvements .
  • Strategic catalyst: pending Baker Hughes acquisition at $210 cash per share received shareholder approval (Oct 6) and is expected to close by mid-2026; Chart is not providing 2025 guidance due to the transaction .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record order momentum across HTS and Specialty Products, including awards for Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 and a major U.S. data center heat rejection system, driving backlog to $6.05B .
  • Operational execution lifted profitability: adjusted operating margin hit 22.9% and adjusted EBITDA reached $277.1M (25.2% of sales), reflecting productivity and favorable project mix (more full solutions) .
  • Management emphasized continued strength in LNG and data centers and record safety performance (TRIR 0.37): “Our commercial momentum continues… strength in LNG and data centers... record adjusted operating income margin of 22.9%” — CEO Jill Evanko .

What Went Wrong

  • RSL sales declined 8.4% YoY on non-repeat, high-margin aftermarket equipment purchases and completion of a large field project in Q3 2024; RSL adjusted OI margin fell 460 bps YoY to 34.6% .
  • CTS sales fell 7.0% YoY with adjusted OI margin down 510 bps to 11.1% due to lower industrial gas volume and pass-through inflation impacts .
  • Company flagged no large orders anticipated in Q4 2025, tempering near-term upside despite strong base momentum; CFO also cited $79M semi-annual interest in Q3 affecting cash flow .

Financial Results

Headline Financials – Sequential (Q1 → Q2 → Q3 2025)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Sales ($USD Millions)$1,001.5 $1,082.3 $1,100.6
Gross Profit Margin %33.9% 33.6% 34.1%
Operating Margin % (GAAP)15.2% 15.7% -8.0%
Adjusted Operating Margin %19.9% 21.1% 22.9%
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$0.99 $1.53 $(3.23)
Adjusted Diluted EPS$1.86 $2.59 $2.78
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$215.2 $245.1 $(29.7)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$231.1 $267.3 $277.1

YoY Comparison – Q3 2024 vs Q3 2025

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Sales ($USD Millions)$1,062.5 $1,100.6
Gross Profit Margin %34.1% 34.1%
Operating Margin % (GAAP)16.8% -8.0%
Adjusted Operating Margin %22.2% 22.9%
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$1.33 $(3.23)
Adjusted Diluted EPS$2.18 $2.78
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$248.4 $(29.7)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$260.7 $277.1

Segment Breakdown

SegmentSales Q3 2024 ($MM)Sales Q2 2025 ($MM)Sales Q3 2025 ($MM)Adj. OI Margin Q3 2024Adj. OI Margin Q2 2025Adj. OI Margin Q3 2025
Cryo Tank Solutions (CTS)$162.5 $155.9 $151.2 16.2% 18.2% 11.1%
Heat Transfer Systems (HTS)$256.2 $295.3 $349.3 24.5% 25.2% 34.6%
Specialty Products (SPC)$283.3 $292.9 $269.9 16.7% 17.2% 15.7%
Repair, Service & Leasing (RSL)$360.5 $338.2 $330.2 39.2% 34.2% 34.6%

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Orders ($USD Billions)$1.168B $1.498B $1.680B
Backlog ($USD Billions)$4.535B $5.537B $6.049B
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$174.6 $124.0 $94.7
Net Leverage Ratio3.04 2.85 2.78
TRIR (12-month)0.37

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q1 2025)Current Guidance (Q3 2025)Change
SalesFY 2025$4.65B–$4.85B Not provided due to Baker Hughes transaction Withdrawn/Maintained “no guidance”
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$1.175B–$1.225B Not provided Withdrawn/Maintained “no guidance”
Adjusted Diluted EPSFY 2025$12.00–$13.00 (≈45.5M shares) Not provided Withdrawn/Maintained “no guidance”
Tax RateFY 2025~22% Not provided Withdrawn/Maintained “no guidance”
Net Debt (EoY)FY 2025~$3B Not provided Withdrawn/Maintained “no guidance”
FCFFY 2025$550M–$600M Not provided Withdrawn/Maintained “no guidance”

Note: Company withdrew FY25 guidance in Q2 upon announcing Baker Hughes transaction and reiterated no FY25 guidance in Q3 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2025 and Q1 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
AI/Data CentersDedicated focus; data center pipeline expanded to ~$400M over next 12–18 months; conversion of backlog to sales in HTS; multiple discussions on cryogenic cooling, air coolers, fans Received a heat rejection system order for one of the largest U.S. data centers; HTS sales up 36.3% YoY on data center and LNG mix Strengthening; pipeline converting to orders/sales
LNGQ1: Woodside Louisiana LNG Phase 2 booked; LNG ~¼ of backlog; ~$1B LNG pipeline over 12 months; Q2: no big LNG orders but strong LNG sales, pipeline >$24B Awarded Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 equipment (Bechtel/Sempra); HTS orders +79% YoY, sales +36% YoY; anticipate no large orders in Q4 Robust but lumpy; large orders timing cautious in Q4
Tariffs/MacroEstimated gross annual tariff impact ~$50M pre-mitigation; mitigation via in-region sourcing, pricing, exemptions; seasonality intact; cash tax heavier in Q2/Q4 No new quantification in Q3; continued narrative on impacts to cash flow (semiannual interest $79M); maintained operational discipline Manageable with mitigation; watch Americas hydrogen/industrial gas
Aftermarket/RSLRecord service orders; resilient through cycles; growth in LTSA and digital uptime; RSL contributed ~½ adjusted OI in 2024 RSL orders -3.4% YoY; sales -8.4% YoY on tough compare; adjusted OI margin 34.6% in expected range Solid margin but growth paused on tough comp
Nuclear/HeliumPipeline growing, especially helium circulation, liquefaction/compression; retrofit consistent; SMR opportunities emerging Specialty Products orders +84% YoY with nuclear and carbon capture strength; specialty margin pressured by FOAK cost Opportunity expanding; execution risk on FOAK projects
Balance Sheet/LeverageTarget net leverage sub-2.5 in 2025; FCF ramp in 2H; conservative capital policy until leverage target achieved Net leverage 2.78 (lowest since Howden close); FCF $94.7M; preferred conversion in Dec 2025 Improving trajectory

Note: No Q3 call was hosted; Q2 call was cancelled due to Baker Hughes transaction .

Management Commentary

  • “Our commercial momentum continues… strength in our end markets, especially in LNG and data centers… record adjusted operating income margin of 22.9% and gross margin… 34.1%.” — Jill Evanko, CEO .
  • “We recorded an expense of $266 million for the merger termination fee to Flowserve… a liability of $258 million as we could be required to repay Baker Hughes in certain limited circumstances.” .
  • “We do not anticipate any large orders in the fourth quarter 2025.” .
  • “Third quarter 2025 net leverage ratio of 2.78… our lowest since the close of the Howden acquisition.” .

Q&A Highlights

Note: No Q3 2025 earnings call; highlights are from Q1 2025 call.

  • Tariffs mitigation: estimated ~$50M gross annual impact pre-mitigation; actions include regional sourcing, exemptions, pricing mechanisms; aim to avoid material margin impact .
  • Data center opportunity: pipeline grew to ~$400M over 12–18 months across cryogenic cooling, air coolers, fans; accelerating addressable opportunities .
  • LNG demand: ~$1B LNG pipeline over 12 months; IPSMR process technology driving visibility and mix benefits .
  • RSL resilience: mission-critical installed base supports maintenance spend in downturns; aftermarket seen as countercyclical; growth across retrofit/service and spares .
  • Seasonality: margins and revenue seasonality expected to be consistent with recent years .

Estimates Context

Consensus vs actual (S&P Global; Q3 2025):

MetricConsensusActual# of EstimatesOutcome
Primary EPS (Adjusted)$3.12*$2.78*11*Miss
Revenue ($USD)$1,185.5M*$1,100.6M*11*Miss
EBITDA ($USD)$308.5M*$266.1M*Miss

Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Company-reported adjusted EBITDA was $277.1M (25.2% margin) and adjusted EPS $2.78, with adjustments including the $266M termination fee (EPS impact +$5.92), step-up amortization (+$0.92), and other items .

Drivers of misses:

  • Revenue: RSL tough YoY compare (non-repeat aftermarket equipment, large field project completed in Q3 2024) and segment mix (CTS softness) .
  • EBITDA/EPS: mix shift plus FOAK cost in Specialty Products and lower CTS profitability; GAAP EPS impacted by termination fee (non-operational) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term narrative: strong orders/backlog and record adjusted margins, but Q4 lacks large order catalysts; trading setup skews to execution and backlog conversion rather than fresh megaproject wins .
  • Mix tailwinds: HTS benefiting from LNG/data centers with >1,000 bps YoY margin expansion; watch for continued conversion and full-solution content to sustain high-20s+ adjusted operating margin .
  • RSL normalization: margins in expected range but growth paused on tough comps; aftermarket remains strategic ballast through cycles; monitor service agreements growth and digital uptime adoption .
  • Specialty Products: orders robust (carbon capture, nuclear, mining), but FOAK production costs and HLNG vehicle tank timing are profit headwinds; expect incremental efficiency gains in coming quarters .
  • Balance sheet improving: net leverage 2.78 and FCF generation despite $79M semi-annual interest; preferred stock auto-conversion in Dec 2025 will affect share count dynamics .
  • Transaction overlay: Baker Hughes acquisition at $210/share frames medium-term outcome; regulatory/timing risks persist but shareholder approval secured; no standalone FY25 guidance while deal pending .
  • Medium-term thesis: diversified end-market exposure (LNG, data centers, nuclear/helium) plus full-solution strategy positions Chart for sustained high-margin execution; watch order timing, FOAK cost management, and backlog-to-revenue cadence .