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    GRANITE CONSTRUCTION (GVA)

    GVA Q4 2024: Adds $450M CAP Pipeline, Guides 11-12% 2025 EBITDA Margin

    Reported on Feb 13, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$86.68Last close (Feb 12, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$87.26Open (Feb 13, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.58(+0.67%)

    What went well

    • Robust CAP Pipeline: The management highlighted an addition of around $450 million in low bids in Q4 compared to the previous year, which is expected to convert into CAP in Q1 and Q2 of 2025. This positions the company for strong future revenue growth.
    • Margin Expansion through Improved Execution: Executives noted that margin expansion is anticipated, with the construction segment contributing over 1% improvement and overall adjusted EBITDA margins projected between 11% and 12% in 2025. This reflects improved project execution and conversion of best value contracts.
    • Strong Vertically Integrated Revenue Growth: The Q&A discussion confirmed that vertically integrated revenue is growing rapidly, consistent with overall business trends, reinforcing the company’s diversified revenue streams and positioning it well for sustained organic growth.

    What went wrong

    • Delayed Non‐Operating Gains: The expected $17 million gain on sale of an asset was deferred from Q4 to 2025, which introduces uncertainty around near-term margin improvements and could negatively impact expected earnings if the sale does not materialize as anticipated.
    • Execution and Conversion Risks in CAP: The conversion of best value contracts from the construction manager phase to general contractor work takes several years, and any delays or slower-than-expected performance in this process could adversely affect revenue growth and margin improvement.
    • Reliance on Favorable Market Conditions: The guidance is partly based on modest sales growth driven by public-funded projects and a strong CAP portfolio. If public funding or market dynamics change, or if lower-end sales guidance reflects underlying weakness, overall growth and profitability could suffer.

    Q&A Summary

    1. Free Cash Flow
      Q: What are 2025 free cash flow targets?
      A: Management expects operating cash flow of 9% of revenue and free cash flow conversion of about 50% of EBITDA, reflecting normalized, strong performance.

    2. Sales & Margins
      Q: How do low-end sales impact margins?
      A: They stressed that even with a modest low-end sales scenario, solid CAP strength and best value project wins will drive margin improvements through disciplined execution.

    3. EBITDA Breakdown
      Q: How will margins improve by segment?
      A: Approximately 1% margin expansion is expected from Construction, with the rest coming from Materials through pricing and automation, totaling about 150 basis points overall.

    4. CAP Pipeline
      Q: What’s the outlook for CAP improvement?
      A: They highlighted a strong pipeline with an additional $450 million in low bids expected to flow into early 2025, underscoring a positive CAP trajectory.

    5. Inflation Outlook
      Q: What inflation rate is anticipated in 2025?
      A: Management anticipates inflation to moderate to around 3%, a level already factored into their pricing strategies.

    6. Asset Sale Timing
      Q: When will the delayed asset sale occur?
      A: The anticipated $17 million gain on sale deferred from Q4 is now expected to be completed in 2025, which will aid overall guidance.

    7. 2027 Targets
      Q: Could high-end guidance shift 2027 targets?
      A: They mentioned that hitting near 12% EBITDA margin might allow for increased 2027 targets, provided capital investments continue to be executed well.

    8. Vertical Revenue
      Q: How did vertically integrated revenue perform?
      A: Vertically integrated revenue is growing robustly, mirroring overall sales trends, with key markets like California showing around a 10% boost.

    9. Regional Outlook
      Q: What is the regional market perspective?
      A: Management noted healthy conditions across home markets, particularly in the West, with strong public funding reinforcing steady CAP buildup.

    10. Margin Execution
      Q: Are project margins improving?
      A: They indicated that the shift toward best value contracts is translating into better margin realization compared to traditional as-sold pricing.

    11. Project Closeouts
      Q: Did project closeouts boost Q4 cash?
      A: They clarified that aside from a single milestone payment, no unusual project closeouts affected cash flow in Q4.

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