Hawaiian Airlines - Q2 2022
July 26, 2022
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Greetings, and welcome to the Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. second quarter 2022 financial results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Jay Schaefer, Vice President and Treasurer. Please go ahead, sir.
Jay Schaefer (VP and Treasurer)
Thank you, Maria. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Hawaiian Holdings second quarter 2022 results conference call. Here with me in Honolulu are Peter Ingram, President and Chief Executive Officer, Brent Overbeek, Chief Revenue Officer, and Shannon Okinaka, Chief Financial Officer. Peter will provide an overview of our performance. Brent will discuss revenue, and Shannon will discuss costs and the balance sheet. At the end of the prepared remarks, we will open the call up for questions. By now, everyone should have access to the press release that went out at about 4:00 P.M. Eastern Time today. If you have not received the release, it's available on the investor relations page of our website, hawaiianairlines.com. During our call today, we will refer at times to adjusted or non-GAAP numbers and metrics.
A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP numbers and metrics can be found at the end of today's press release posted on the investor relations page of our website. As a reminder, the following prepared remarks contain forward-looking statements, including statements about our future plans and potential future financial and operating performance. Management may also make additional forward-looking statements in response to your questions. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and do not guarantee future performance, and therefore, undue reliance should not be placed upon them. We refer you to Hawaiian Holdings' recent filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statement. These include our most recent annual report filed on Form 10-K, as well as subsequent reports filed on Forms 10-Q and 8-K.
I will now turn the call over to Peter.
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
Mahalo, Jay. Aloha, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Demand for travel to, from, and within Hawaii remains very strong. As you know, we updated our second quarter outlook at the end of May due to improved demand throughout our network, and today's results are better than our May expectations. We anticipate strong demand continuing into the third quarter as we increase our international schedule. Importantly, with stability returning to the demand environment, we continue to reduce our debt levels while maintaining a healthy liquidity position. In North America, yields improved throughout the quarter compared to the corresponding months in 2019, with premium demand leading the way. Every indication suggests a continuation of these trends as we enter the third quarter. Internationally, the recovery and demand has taken root in Australia, South Korea, New Zealand, Tahiti, and American Samoa.
Travel restrictions in Japan have prevented us from resuming a full pre-pandemic schedule. These restrictions are incrementally easing, and next month we are resuming service to Haneda at the same time as we increase frequency from Narita and Osaka. As we saw when restrictions loosened in North America, consumers in international markets are showing strong interest in visiting Hawaii. In the second quarter, the commercial team fully implemented variable seat pricing on all North America routes, and early results are exceeding the business case expectations. Building on our success in the premium cabin and with our Extra Comfort product, variable seat pricing helps us better capitalize on our award-winning service. As we discussed on last quarter's call, work on the implementation of our passenger service system transition is underway and on track to launch in the spring of 2023.
Turning to our sustainability efforts, in May, we released our corporate Kuleana report. Kuleana is the Hawaiian word for responsibility, and this report reflects our commitment to our environmental, social, and governance priorities. This year, we announced commitments to replace single-use plastics in our cabins by 2029, to increase local sourcing of food and beverages served on board to 40%, and an ongoing focus on sustainable tourism. As we work toward our commitment to become carbon neutral by 2050, we also announced a strategic partnership with REGENT to support the development of the Monarch, a 100-seat electric seaglider for potential application in Hawaii and inter-island travel. We also announced an agreement with Par Hawaii's largest supplier of energy products, to explore the commercial viability of locally produced sustainable aviation fuel or SAF.
SAF is by far the most important near and medium-term component of our efforts to reduce our carbon footprint, and this study will be an important step toward developing SAF supply in our home state, which will be critical to our long-term sustainability goals. I know that staffing has been in the news recently as delays and cancellations create frustrations for travelers and airlines. Our team has worked diligently to stay out of these headlines with a completion percentage of 99.5% for the quarter and 99.9% from the beginning of the Memorial Day travel period through the end of the quarter. We continue to see strong demand for open pilot and flight dependent positions. Executing on our pilot training efforts will remain a focus of our management team through the end of the year, as this represents the primary constraint on our scheduling flexibility.
While aircraft technician and airport operations staffing remain tighter than we would prefer, we are working to ensure that we can successfully attract the right talent. Tight coordination between our recruiting, training, and schedule planning teams is ongoing to ensure that we can operate the schedules that we publish. The labor agreement covering our pilots became amendable this month. We've had positive and productive conversations with ALPA well ahead of this month's amendable date, and we look forward to completing a new contract that recognizes the critical contribution our pilots make to our business and the competitive environment for these highly skilled professionals. At this point, we can't put a specific timeline to completing these negotiations. High-end volatile fuel prices will continue to be a challenge going forward, especially on our more fuel-intensive long-haul operations.
While the gyrations of the global jet fuel market are beyond our control, we will focus on managing what we can, including cost management elsewhere in the business and revenue generation. Compared to the challenges of 2020 and most of 2021, these are high-class problems, and I'm pleased with our performance in the second quarter and the outlook for the third quarter. Our team throughout the operation and here at our headquarters has done a fantastic job navigating the twists and turns of the past several quarters, and their hard work is being recognized by the traveling public who selected Hawaiian Airlines as the best domestic airline in Travel + Leisure magazine's World's Best Awards recent survey. The progress we continue to make on our goals for 2022 sets us up well for the remainder of the year and for years beyond.
With that, let me turn the call over to Brent to discuss our commercial results and outlook in more detail.
Brent Overbeek (SVP and CRO)
Thank you, Peter. Aloha, everyone. As Peter mentioned, our second quarter revenue performance was better than expected throughout our network. Passenger revenue was down just 5.5% from 2019. Although two points of the quarter's revenue performance compared to 2019 was due to an accounting revision that Shannon will elaborate on later. We operated 112% of our domestic capacity and 31% of our international capacity compared to 2019. Demand for our North America markets was robust throughout the quarter, peaking with a 92.9% load factor in June. Yields also strengthened as we progressed through the quarter, with June up about 9% versus 2019. For our Inter-island market, the second quarter saw a good recovery in both fare and volume. Recovery has been rapid for those international markets that have fully relaxed travel restrictions.
As we increase our Japan flying, our performance there in the near term will be constrained by the passenger arrival caps, currently at 20,000 per day. However, we are optimistic that the cap will be increased or lifted altogether in the coming months. Similar to last quarter, our premium products continue to perform very well. We saw continued strong demand for our front cabin with North America premium cabin PRASM up 37% for the quarter versus 2019. Total ancillary revenue, including seats, bags, cargo, and other products, continues to perform exceptionally well. Systemwide Extra Comfort revenue was up 2% compared to the second quarter of 2019, despite reduced capacity. In North America, Extra Comfort revenue was up 25% on 15% more capacity.
As Peter mentioned, Preferred Seats are off to an encouraging start, and the benefits will approach steady state as we get later in the year. Our co-branded credit card program continues to show strong performance with another record quarter as revenue was up 11% versus 2019. Net retail sales were up 14%, and new accounts increased by 11% compared to 2019, both records for the program. Acquisition and spend remain strong with no signs of weakening. The cargo team recorded its highest second quarter of revenue ever, up 50% compared to the second quarter of 2019. Second quarter yields remain strong, up 84% compared to the second quarter of 2019, with the strongest demand from our Asia Pacific sales. Looking forward, we are encouraged by both domestic and international bookings and are expecting continued strong demand for travel to Hawaii.
For the third quarter, we anticipate overall revenue to be down about 1.5% from 2019. Breaking this further down by geography, in North America, we continue to see strong demand, anticipate our load factor to approach third quarter 2019 levels. The revenue environment continues to improve, and we anticipate our third quarter PRASM for North America to exceed 2019 levels of roughly two points sequential improvement from the second quarter. We expect to fly a similar amount of capacity to the second quarter at about 116% of our 2019 schedule. While industry capacity to Hawaii is still elevated, we continue to see moderation both versus last year and 2019 as we move through the summer and into the fall. We remain well-positioned and based on the latest data from the DOT, we continue to materially outperform our competitors on PRASM in North America.
This demonstrates the strength of our North America network, focus on the Hawaii premium leisure traveler, award-winning service, and optimally configured aircraft. In the Neighbor Islands, we expect to fly about 82% of our 2019 capacity in the third quarter. As with last quarter, we have implemented modest schedule adjustments based on some of the pilot bottlenecks impacting our 717 fleet. We remain well-positioned and continue to maintain a share of local traffic well in excess of our seat share and earn a very sizable load factor premium as well as yield premium versus our competitor. However, the recent reintroduction of deeply discounted fares will pressure industry PRASM in this entity. Internationally, as I mentioned earlier, we are seeing a fairly rapid recovery for markets that are not subject to ongoing travel restrictions. South Korea performance is very strong since the quarantine requirement was removed in April.
Sydney has built a bit more slowly, but July load factors are in the 80s, which is positive, and yields remain strong. Auckland, where we just resumed service in July, is beginning to accelerate, and we are optimistic of our performance there. Of course, a full recovery in Japan is dependent on the easing of government restrictions on arrivals. The current yen-dollar exchange rate, which is down about 22% compared to 2019, will increase the cost of a Hawaii vacation for these travelers. However, consistent with our other international geographies, as restrictions ease, we do anticipate demand to pick up materially. Moving to our capacity outlook, we anticipate our overall capacity for the third quarter to be down approximately 6.5% from 2019 levels.
This is about 6 points higher than the same comparison for the second quarter as we continue to build back our international network. For the full year, we expect capacity to be down approximately 9.5%. However, this may move a bit depending on the changes to the Japanese government's cap on arrivals. To summarize, we anticipate strong domestic demand, and we expect our load factor to be close to 2019 levels. Premium cabin PRASM improvements to continue to accelerate to historical highs and Extra Comfort revenue to exceed 2019 levels. Internationally, travel restrictions continue to ease, and we're seeing robust demand for Hawaii vacation. We have the right products for our markets, a strong brand, exceptional team, and a winning formula for success. With that, I'll turn the call over to Shannon.
Shannon Okinaka (EVP and CFO)
Thanks, Brent, and thanks everyone for joining us today. Let me start with an update on the balance sheet. We closed the quarter with $1.8 billion in total liquidity, inclusive of cash, short-term investments, and our undrawn revolver. Adjusted net debt was $944 million, which continues to be below 2019 levels. During the quarter, we fully redeemed the remaining principal on our 2020 EETC bonds. The combination of the tender offer in November 2021 and the redemption in June reduced our outstanding debt by $223 million or 11%. Not only does this improve our leverage but will trim our interest expense by $18 million per year.
In total, since we issued our loyalty program bonds in 2021, we've reduced our debt load by $607 million or 27%. The remaining debt and lease principal payments for this year total $36 million. Our balance sheet remains strong, and we have ample liquidity. With high fuel prices and an uncertain economy, we plan to maintain liquidity above pre-pandemic levels for the coming quarters. Turning to the P&L, we finished the quarter with an adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 million. These results were better than we originally expected despite increases in fuel costs, given the strong domestic revenue results that Brent discussed. As Brent noted, in the second quarter, we recorded additional passenger revenue to accelerate the recognition of spoilage of unused tickets. This change in estimate was based on an evaluation of the trends for passenger use or non-use of unflown tickets.
The impact to the second quarter was $10 million more than what we had anticipated entering the quarter. On the cost side, our second quarter non-fuel costs, excluding non-recurring items, totaled $491 million, with unit costs up 16% compared to 2019, which was at the better end of our expectations. This year-over-year increase is primarily due to wage and airport rate increases accompanied by lower ASMs. For the third quarter, we expect our unit costs, excluding fuel and special items, to be up about 10% compared to the third quarter of 2019 on a capacity decrease of 6.5%. As with last quarter, this quarter's biggest drivers are wages and benefits and airport rent.
For the full year, we expect unit costs to be up approximately 14% compared to 2019 on a capacity decrease of about 9.5%. Fuel costs rose in the second quarter to $3.95 per gallon, up approximately 5% from our May guidance update. We're forecasting our price per gallon for the third quarter to be $3.50 based on the forward curve as of July 14th. We expect our fuel consumption for the third quarter to be down about 12.5% as compared to 2019. Our capital expenditure forecast for 2022 is approximately $115 million, with about two-thirds for aircraft and the remaining third for non-aircraft spend. The majority of the aircraft CapEx is pre-delivery payments for our 787s.
Some or potentially all of these payments may shift into 2023 depending on the timing of our delivery schedule, which is still in flux. The non-aircraft expenditures reflect investments in technology and in our facilities. We expect our adjusted EBITDA to increase in the third quarter to approximately $45 million. While fuel has moderated somewhat in the past month, as Peter mentioned, yields will need to improve further to fully offset the high fuel cost environment. As we have seen through the first half of the year, fuel prices are susceptible to volatility.
In conclusion, we're confident that we're on the road to recovery, and our focus is on the long-term success of our business by strengthening our brand and award-winning hospitality and service to differentiate us from the competition and win in the marketplace, restoring our international service and returning operations to full scale, hiring and training our people as we plan and prepare for our future, and investing in foundational technology to enhance our commercial agility and increase our cost competitiveness. We believe that these priorities are the winning formula to growing value for our shareholders. With that, we can open the call for questions.
Operator (participant)
At this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we poll for questions. Our first question is from Helane Becker with Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Helane Becker (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Oh, thanks very much, operator. Hey, everybody. I have, I think, just two questions. One is on Orlando. You guys went to Orlando and now you're leaving Orlando. Can you just talk a little bit about that decision?
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
Yeah, Helane. I think, listen, as with the delay of our 787s, we've known for some time we wouldn't have sufficient aircraft to continue operating on all the routes that we had added in North America as demand for those aircraft increased. Orlando has been a strong market during the peak periods, but during some of its off-peak periods was a little bit softer than we anticipated. Kind of given where we were with aircraft, it was the best decision right now in terms of the network.
Helane Becker (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Got it. Okay. Maybe you can just say this. Like, as we think about the guidance, you've taken those ASMs out. What percentage of the growth in ASMs would represent Orlando?
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
We've taken them out in terms of the guidance, and it would have been relatively small. We're talking about, you know, something that was operating, you know, three days a week in the back part of September for three weeks. I don't have that number handy, Helane, but it's pretty de minimis.
Helane Becker (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. That's fine. Then on the 717s, with fuel prices going up, does that change the way you're going to be thinking about replacing the 717s? I know you talked about the new Monarch, which kind of could be an exciting opportunity. What about the shorter term, right? Because that's probably a 2030 kind of a thing.
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
Yeah. Thanks, Helane. The 717s, we still expect to be operating that airplane at least through the middle of the decade, as we've communicated before. Frankly, fuel costs on short-haul flying like we have in our Neighbor Island operation is a smaller proportion of the total cost equation than is, you know, ground handling costs, airport costs, other things associated with the fact that it's a very high frequency, high cycle environment. Frankly, that goes for the operating costs of the airplane and the cycle costs on Power by the Hour deals and things like that. It's really not as fuel sensitive. The 717's a terrific airplane for what we do.
If we could replace 717s with new 717s, that would probably be the ideal aircraft choice for us at some point. We're happy with that airplane, and it doesn't really change the equation.
Helane Becker (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. All right. Well, that's really helpful. Thanks, Peter.
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
Sure. Thanks, Helane.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Mike Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Company Research Analyst)
Oh, hey. Good morning, everyone. I guess a couple here. On the A330s.
You're obviously bringing the plane back from Orlando since I think you indicated, you know, to backfill into, you know, some of the international that you're ramping back up. What is the utilization on that airplane? You know, when I sort of think what your schedule looks like in September and beyond, it still seems like you're down pretty meaningfully. Can you talk about what the utilization is and what sort of embedded productivity gains that you should see as you ramp that fleet back up to full utilization? What's the headwind?
Brent Overbeek (SVP and CRO)
We aren't at kind of peak productivity in terms of the 330s. We'll get there as we get later in the year and build Japan back a little bit more. I don't have the exact number in terms of productivity. It's probably a little bit less than where we were back in 2019, but as we continue to build back Japan in the latter part of the year, I think we'll get back to those same levels, if not maybe a little bit higher of productivity. I wanna say at that point it was around 12 hours a day, but I don't have that number handy.
Mike Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Company Research Analyst)
Okay. Then when I look at, you know, the EBITDA guide for the third quarter, it does look like that, you know, you still may be close to, you know, at the high end, maybe you're slightly profitable. You know, at the midpoint, maybe you're not. I think the third quarter seasonally is also one of your better quarters. You know, where are we at the limit on how much you can take fares up, you know, given where the fuel prices are and the elasticity of demand, are we pushing on a string here? You know, assuming that, you know, Asia doesn't or Japan doesn't come back, where do you get that additional revenue when, you know, you're dealing with a largely discretionary, relatively more price-sensitive customer base?
How should we think about that?
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
Yeah. Let me touch on a couple of things and then see if Brent or Shannon wanna add on to it a little bit. I think there is you know still some opportunity for upside. One of the things we're encouraged about as we you know look at DOT data which has a little bit of a lag but we really haven't seen changes in the trends. We continue to outperform our competitors in all the geographies we serve in terms of revenue generation and we know our cost structure is competitive as well. I think we are the most profitable airline in the markets we serve.
Mike Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Company Research Analyst)
Mm-hmm.
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
The market mix we have is a little bit different competitively than you know some of our competitors have across their networks. I think as we get back to you know flying more to Japan, you'll see that manifest itself in terms of improved productivity on the labor side. Today, we have more pilots on payroll than we did in 2019, but we aren't doing as much flying as we did in 2019. Clearly, as we get that utilization up, we have improvement on the cost side. We haven't seen any weakening in the demand in North America, which is the biggest part of our market. You do see you know some seasonal changes as we go into the fall, but really nothing that indicates demand.
We're optimistic about Japan. You know, Brent mentioned the potential headwind of the exchange rate. But if you look at how robust demand has been in places like Australia and South Korea, which haven't necessarily benefited from favorable exchange rates themselves, we've seen a real strong desire for travel and a willingness to spend. I think Japan is gonna help us a lot as we move, you know, through the end of the year and into 2023.
Mike Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Company Research Analyst)
Okay. Peter, just a quick follow on, and maybe Brent can add on this. Just, you've done a nice job on the premium product, and I think that your product stands out. But when I look at your wide-bodies, I feel like you don't have enough seats. You, maybe you'll disagree with me, but I think the premium has been where people are paying up, and some of those fares are pretty high. If you had your druthers, what is it? Is it 18 seats on the A330? And maybe is the right number 24 or 28? Like, if you could have more seats, or maybe it doesn't matter. Maybe that's not the issue there because I feel like, you know, your.
Relative to some of your competitors, you do have a smaller premium cabin, and it may be where you're leaving revenue on the table. I don't know if correct.
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
Yeah. Mike, this is a subject we discuss a fair bit around here. You know, I think we felt when we modified the A330s back several years ago now that we had the right sweet spot for that moment in history.
Mike Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Company Research Analyst)
Mm-hmm.
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
I think your observation is right. Brent's been getting on these calls quarter after quarter and telling you that our premium demand has been improving faster than our main cabin demand. I think if we you know if there was zero cost to doing a fleet transition, and we could complete it overnight and not have aircraft out of service for a long time, we probably would stretch that front cabin back a little bit, particularly on the A330s and possibly even on the A321s as well.
Mike Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Company Research Analyst)
Interesting.
Brent Overbeek (SVP and CRO)
Yeah. I think, Peter, you took the words out of my mouth. I think, you know, if we had a no-cost option there, we would clearly go do that. It's something that we'll continue to evaluate kind of the economics over the life of that airplane, not just in the short term in terms of today's environment. I will say, you know, we have seen probably a little more strength on the A330 than we have the A321. Some of that's a market mix issue, but overall, you know, it's done exceptionally well.
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
Mike, the one last thing I'd add on this subject was as we look forward to the 787, which isn't gonna be a huge contributor to our fleet over the next couple of years, but obviously will be going forward, the LOPA that we have designed for that aircraft actually has a larger premium mix. We dedicate a little bit more of the geography of the airplane to the premium cabin in the 787. It's gonna be well-suited to where the market has been evolving over the last couple of years.
Mike Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Company Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks for the time, everyone.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Dan McKenzie with Seaport Global. Please proceed with your question.
Dan McKenzie (Senior Equity Analyst)
Yeah. Hi. Thanks, guys. Just, you know, following up on Mike's question, just given the movement in the U.S. dollar, you know, I'm just wondering if you can talk about how that's impacting foreign point of sale versus U.S. point of sale internationally to international destinations. It sounds like things are pretty strong, and that's not really having an impact at this point. You know, maybe just clarifying, can you just remind us what % of the bookings that represents, you know, the international inbound and then just related to this, how that distribution strategy augments that foreign point of sale?
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
We haven't seen a material shift in point of sale. Maybe we're up slightly in U.S. point of sale, particularly to kind of Australia, New Zealand, but not a material shift there. I think in all of those markets as they've opened up, we've seen a desire for guests in those countries to travel and have been willing to kind of offset a higher dollar-denominated trip for them. In terms of point-of-sale mix, it differs a fair amount from kind of I'll call it Australia. New Zealand is a bit different than Japan and Korea.
Australia and New Zealand were generally about two-thirds point of sale non-US, about a third U.S., and Japan, Korea are you know probably closer to 90% heavily weighted towards foreign point of sale.
Dan McKenzie (Senior Equity Analyst)
How that distribution strategy is augmenting that foreign point of sale?
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
Our distribution strategy internationally really hasn't changed at all. The recent changes we've made in terms of our distribution policies is with a domestic focus.
Dan McKenzie (Senior Equity Analyst)
Yeah. I think.
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
Understood
Dan McKenzie (Senior Equity Analyst)
You know, throughout the pandemic, we have seen a little bit of behavioral shift from guests, and more activity getting conducted online, both direct through our website and a little bit more through OTA. We are seeing a little bit of a shift away from some of the traditional agencies across geographies, and some of that is coming direct to us, where we can transact and offer more products and services. Really our distribution strategy is intended to continue that and offer that in more channels. Very good.
Second question here, just, you know, looking out, you know, one to three years, three to five years, you know, I'm just wondering if you can help us reconcile the inflation pressures we're seeing today from where you sit. You know, just internally, if the plan calls for margins that can get back to pre-pandemic levels, or, you know, should longer term investors anticipate potentially some, just some erosion here from the cost pressures?
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
Well, Dan, it's hard to, you know, specifically forecast inflation going forward. I think obviously in the near term, we're in an inflation environment that many of us haven't seen in our professional careers. I do think that this industry has proven resilient over time, particularly in the United States, at being able to adjust and adapt, maybe not always as quickly as people would like quarter-to-quarter, but over a period of time, you see supply and demand fall into balance and strategies emerge to be able to develop different revenue sources and different cost savings opportunities.
I think that will play out again, and we'll be able to return to you know, profitability levels that are comparable with what we've been able to produce historically.
Shannon Okinaka (EVP and CFO)
Yeah. I would add that, you know, in the medium term, I think we have a lot of opportunity, especially on the cost side. I think, once we have more of our fleet plans, firmed up, I think the commercial team can then do, you know, medium-term planning, and that will provide more opportunities for revenue increase. Looking at the cost side, I think we have a lot of opportunity, for labor productivity, from a variety of things. You know, when we get new contracts with our labor groups, obviously the rates go up day one, but a lot of times we are able to get some work rule benefits that take time to implement.
I think you'll see we'll see better productivity from those contracts over the next few years. I think some of the contracts also get productivity improvements with more flying, so we'll see better productivity from that. Also, we're making a lot of investment in technology and facilities, and we should be able to get a lot of good cost savings from those in the next few years.
Dan McKenzie (Senior Equity Analyst)
Terrific. Thanks for the time, you guys.
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
Thanks, Dan.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Chris Stathoulopoulos with Susquehanna International Group. Please proceed with your question.
Chris Stathoulopoulos (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, thanks. Good afternoon. Thank you. Peter or Shannon, there's a lot going on here with the international regions with respect to FX, different reopening timetables. Could you rank in terms of utilization, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, where you are today, and then how you're ranking these markets or weighting, excuse me, these markets into your planning for 2023? I realize some of this here that you can't control, but in your prepared remarks, there's just a lot of moving pieces here with respect to your flights into these markets. Kind of want to better understand, if you could, where you are in terms of utilization, but also going forward, how you're thinking about these individual markets in your planning for next year. Thank you.
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
Yeah. Let me start, and hopefully I hit the mark correctly on where you're going with the question. I think in Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, we're pretty much at a steady state level in terms of the amount of capacity that we would have in those markets. It may vary by a frequency or two here, or we may make some adjustments seasonally, but we're not dramatically below where we intend to be for, you know, the near term on how we allocate aircraft to those regions. Japan, we're still pretty considerably below. During this period, we were just operating a single daily flight to Osaka. You know, pre-pandemic that was a daily. We're less than daily on Narita. That was daily before.
We had 2 flights in Haneda, daily flights before the pandemic. We were about to add a 3rd. You know, we don't start flying to Haneda until August. There's Fukuoka and Sapporo. Japan, we're still operating really a fraction. I don't have the precise number, but we can get that for you. It's a fraction of what we were doing before. That's where the growth is coming on the international as we look forward to the end of this year, but even more importantly, into 2023.
Chris Stathoulopoulos (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. My second question here, so, you know, from your competitors', recovery in their, core markets here is moving forward. I was wondering if you could give some color here, with respect to, capacity off the U.S. mainland, how that's what you're seeing, and also, any color, with respect to, fares and, anything that, you're able to speak to confidence with, 30 or 60 days out there. Thank you.
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
Yeah. I'll start with that one and then maybe hand it over to Brent. On North America to Hawaii flying, capacity has come down a little bit from where it was in 2021, but it still remains above where it was in 2019, pre-pandemic. You know, it's still been a net add over the course of the pandemic, although some of our competitors have made some adjustments over the last few months. That's probably the biggest one. International, we've seen more of the capacity come back again with the exception of Japan, where the competitive capacity is still substantially on the sidelines as we are.
Brent Overbeek (SVP and CRO)
Yeah. Relative to 2021, clearly we've peaked and are coming off of that, and we're still from an industry capacity a bit above where we were at in 2019, albeit that's abating a little bit as well as we get into the fall. Obviously that's a fair amount more than the capacity that remains for travel within the lower forty-eight, where industry capacity is down a fair amount. We are a little bit, in terms of our geography, at a bit of a capacity disadvantage there. Not to get into specifics on pricing, but I'll say, you know, yields have held up throughout the summer. We had, you know, a really strong June that I referenced. The rest of the summer looks good.
Even into the fall, we're continuing to see pricing improvements and average fare improvements versus 2019 at this point.
Chris Stathoulopoulos (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Andrew Didora with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Andrew Didora (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Brent or Peter, and you both mentioned the variable pricing initiative. Can you maybe, you know, provide a little bit more color around that, when it was introduced in each of the regions? I guess, you know, what kind of impact do you think it has had on pricing in these early days?
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
Well, the early days, the impact is quite small. We implemented it fairly early in the quarter. What we're doing is charging for some of our more desirable main cabin seats. All the guests who had pre-reserved seats in those seats, we let them remain in those seats. Our ability to sell some of those in the second quarter was rather small. As we get into the third quarter, it gets greater. It gets in the fourth quarter, obviously even more. You know, we've been really encouraged by the take rate. Again, we've got a little bit of a restricted supply as we were moving through the quarter.
You know, our business case on this has it, you know, at, kind of in the $10-$15 million on an annual basis. I think at this point we're, you know, while the results are still early and we've got a long ways to go, I think we're pretty encouraged with the domestic results we've seen so far. We have not rolled it out in any of our international markets yet, and that's a process that we're working through. Our intention in there is that we'll roll the product out in those geographies as well in the months ahead.
Andrew Didora (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Then I guess just on the implied four Q capacity here, I guess, you know, one, there's pretty big disconnect versus your schedules. I think your schedules are up mid-single digits. I guess, you know, where do you have to adjust the most? You know, I guess sequentially three Q to four Q, just curious on like what's the limiting factor here? Like, why isn't there a bit more of a step up in capacity, especially with international reopening?
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
We've got, I think, going back to one of the previous questions, you know, for the most part we're reopened internationally and everywhere but Japan. We've got a little bit of schedule cleanup that we need to do, particularly in the front part of the fourth quarter, and you'll see that probably in the not-so-distant future. That, I think, is probably the majority of the disjoint that you're looking at.
Andrew Didora (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, we've reached the end of the question and answer session, and I would like to turn the call back over to Peter Ingram for closing remarks. Please go ahead.
Peter Ingram (President and CEO)
Thank you, operator. Mahalo again to all of you for joining us today. On the strong demand improvement as we move through the first half of 2022 gives us confidence for the periods ahead. I'm extremely proud of our team and their commitment to deliver an outstanding guest experience, and we appreciate your interest and look forward to updating you on our progress in a few months. Aloha.
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.