HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 delivered strong GAAP results but mixed non‑GAAP: GAAP diluted EPS rose to $0.74 (vs. $0.23 YoY) on higher income from equity method investments, while Adjusted EPS declined to $0.60 (vs. $0.63 YoY) due to lower gain on sale timing.
• Adjusted Recurring Net Investment Income increased 25% YoY to $85.3M, reflecting larger portfolio size and higher yields; managed assets grew 13% YoY to $14.6B; pipeline expanded to >$6B.
• Capital structure actions and credit quality were positives: S&P upgraded HASI to investment grade (third rating), the company issued $1.0B senior unsecured notes at ~6.3% blended yield, repurchased $700M (2026/2027 notes), and repaid $200M converts; debt-to-equity remains 1.8x with $1.4B liquidity.
• Guidance reaffirmed: Adjusted EPS CAGR of 8–10% through 2027 (midpoint ~$3.15), dividend payout ratio trending to 55–60% by 2027, and quarterly dividend maintained at $0.42 per share; estimate beat/miss: Adjusted EPS slightly missed S&P Global consensus for Q2, while revenue comparisons are definition-sensitive (see Estimates Context).
• Near-term stock catalysts: confirmation of capital efficiency via CCH1, stronger recurring income trajectory, and clarity on gain-on-sale cadence skewing to H2 may drive expectations revisions and sentiment.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Recurring income momentum: Adjusted Recurring Net Investment Income rose 25% YoY to $85.3M, driven by higher yields and portfolio growth.
• Pipeline and yield strength: “We have increased our pipeline, which now exceeds $6,000,000,000 and our new business year to date has an average yield greater than 10.5%”.
• Balance sheet/rating wins: S&P upgrade to investment grade and $1.0B bonds issued at effective ~6.28% weighted cost; management expects ~20 bps increase to average debt cost next quarter, still supporting ROE and guidance.

What Went Wrong

• Adjusted EPS softness: Q2 Adjusted EPS fell to $0.60 (vs. $0.63 YoY), primarily due to lower gain on sale timing; management reiterated majority of 2025 gain-on-sale expected in H2.
• GAAP NII negative: GAAP-based net investment income was $(3.3)M, reflecting inclusion of full interest expense and an $11M debt extinguishment loss (excluded from Adjusted Earnings).
• Quarterly transaction lumpiness: Q2 closings of ~$189M were below Q1’s ~$706M; management emphasized cadence variability and expects full-year closings to exceed 2024 levels.

Transcript

Speaker 10

Welcome to HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. At this time, all participants are in the listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press *0 on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Aaron Chew, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Speaker 0

Thank you, Operator, and good afternoon to everyone joining us today for HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital's second quarter 2025 conference call. Earlier this afternoon, HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital distributed a press release reporting our second quarter 2025 results, a copy of which is available on our website along with a slide presentation we will be referring to today. This conference call is being webcast live on the Investor Relations page of our website, where a replay will be available later today. Some of the comments made in this call are forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties described in the risk factors section of the company's Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC. Actual results may differ materially from those stated. Today's discussion also includes some non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is available in our earnings release and presentation.

Joining us on the call today are Jeff Lipson, the company's President and CEO, as well as Chuck Melko, our Chief Financial Officer, and also available for Q&A are Susan Nickey, our Chief Client Officer, and Marc Pangburn, our Chief Revenue and Strategy Officer. To kick things off, I will first turn it over to our President and CEO, Jeff Lipson, who will open the presentation today on slide three. Jeff?

Speaker 10

Thank you, Aaron, and thanks everyone for joining our Q2 2025 call. We are pleased to report another strong quarter and remain very confident in our business model and strategy. Our business model, focused on climate-positive investments with programmatic clients, investing in non-cyclical revenue-producing projects, is indeed the ideal strategy for today's environment. In addition, our thoughtful approach to leverage, capital, and liquidity likewise positions us well for long-term growth in all policy and macroeconomic environments. Importantly, we also value diversification, investing in several different asset classes and consistently expanding our scope to create additional opportunities for growth and avoiding any material impacts of slowdowns in a particular market. Our FTN business has grown meaningfully over the past few years, and we continue to explore opportunities beyond our historical focus, including investments that have very limited public policy ramifications.

The impact of this consistent approach to our business has led to a number of accomplishments in the second quarter. We have increased our pipeline, which now exceeds $6 billion, and our new business year to date has an average yield greater than 10.5%. On the capital raising side, we issued $1 billion of term debt and used $900 million of the proceeds to pay off maturing convertible notes and near-term senior debt. We also successfully closed a nearly $600 million debt offering on our CCH1 joint venture, expanding its capacity and extending the investment period until late 2026. Our adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.60, slightly down from last quarter simply due to the timing of gain-on-sale revenue.

We are introducing a new metric that reflects the recurring revenue nature of our business, entitled Adjusted Recurring Net Investment Income, which is 19% higher year to date as compared to 2024. I'm also pleased to reaffirm our guidance of 8% to 10% compound annual adjusted EPS growth through 2027, as we remain on track to meet this target over the next three years. Turning to page four, I'd like to provide context for why certain recent macroeconomic, legislative, and policy items will result in positive outcomes for our business. First, the United States remains at a current and forecasted level of power demand that requires an all-the-above energy strategy. In fact, even with an all-the-above approach, supply is unlikely to keep pace, leading to higher power prices, which in turn will drive additional development, including renewables.

The impact of changes in tax credit policy for renewables is still a few years away, and given existing safe harboring, more than enough time for the industry to adapt, particularly when economic viability without tax credits has fundamentally already occurred. Storage ITC will also incrementally improve solar economics well into the next decade, and RNG remains an attractive asset class bolstered by the extension of the clean fuels BTC. For our business, these developments have a number of implications. The value of our existing portfolio increases as power prices increase, and although we don't mark to market our assets, we may see a higher yield on these investments over time. Our pipeline remains unimpacted by any policy changes, which I will discuss more in a moment. We also maintain a diversified approach to the business, and we continue to expand our scope.

This approach, coupled with lower-risk asset-level investing, allows us to be significantly more insulated from policy changes than other business models. The lack of tax equity in the project capital stack a few years from now may create additional opportunities for HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital to fill the void, and we are also well-positioned to continue our longstanding client solution of providing capital recycling. Finally, we expect the policy environment to result in less competition for project-level investments. In summary, we have no need to make any material changes to our existing strategy to thrive in the current operating environment. Turning to page five, we emphasize that our investments are funded after development risk has been eliminated. This slide also reinforces that our existing pipeline is insulated from policy changes. The slide provides an example of the chronology of HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital's participation in utility-scale investments.

The underlying projects are already at an advanced stage when we add the investment to our pipeline. The project is even further advanced by the time we close our commitment and typically at or very near commercial operation when we fund our investment. This is a reminder that our investments occur at a de-risk stage of development, and we typically do not incur permitting or policy risk. Further, this graphic provides a depiction of the stage of the investments in our pipeline and strong evidence that our pipeline is not at risk related to permitting, tariffs, or subsequent tax policy changes. Turning to page six, our pipeline has grown over the past few quarters and now exceeds $6 billion.

Our pie chart reinforces the diversification of our business with strong representation from each of our markets and a new slice representing the next frontier asset classes discussed on our February earnings call. The behind-the-meter pipeline includes a long list of energy efficiency, community solar, and residential solar and storage projects with several existing and new clients. The grid-connected pipeline is also very active as many developers are in search of capital to execute on their pipelines. Our fuels, transportation, and nature pipeline continues to reflect the significant opportunity, particularly in renewable natural gas and transportation, which are less impacted by policy changes. Turning to page seven, I'd like to emphasize the significant improvement in the efficiency of our balance sheet. Putting aside our securitization activity and our retained capital, prior to CCH1 closing in 2024, $100 of equity raising resulted in $300 of investments.

Following CCH1, we have doubled the investment dollars for each dollar of equity. Now that we have closed a debt facility at CCH1 with a vehicle leverage target of 0.5, the investment dollars for each dollar of equity has tripled from the original business model. As a reminder, we also earn fees on both the KKR equity investment and the funded CCH1 debt balance. This slide is a powerful reminder of the significant strides we have made in our efforts to grow earnings while limiting additional equity issuance. With that, I will pass the call over to Chuck Melko to discuss our financial results.

Speaker 8

Thanks, Jeff. Before I get into our quarterly results, I would like to take a minute to discuss the ways we create value for our shareholders. First, we generate returns from closing accretive transactions into our portfolio, either through our CCH1 structure or directly onto our balance sheet, and minimizing the cost of capital related to our funding sources. Second, once we have funded the investment, we can further optimize the portfolio and also reinvest cash received into other high-yielding investments. Lastly, we generate recurring and one-time fees related to our securitization activities and CCH1. These fees typically do not require any equity capital, which further enhances our return on equity. Now to take a look at our transaction activity, on slide eight, we have closed approximately $900 million in transactions in the first half of this year, which is 9% higher than last year.

Q2 was lower than Q1 and was not the result of a particular theme, rather normal course changes in the closing timeline. Given the strength of our pipeline, we feel good about the outlook of closings the remainder of the year and the total being higher than 2024. We continue to be successful in closing transactions with double-digit yields and had a weighted average closing yield of greater than 10.5% and continue to execute across all of our asset classes. On slide nine, we are meaningfully scaling our platform with managed assets of $14.6 billion and a portfolio of $7.2 billion, up 13% and 16% respectively from the same time last year. Our CCH1 co-investment structure is now at $1.1 billion of funded assets, and with a recent debt transaction at CCH1 has $1.5 billion of additional capacity that we expect will be filled before the end of 2026.

As a reminder, the investments in CCH1 are comprised of both receivables and equity investments, but due to the structure, show up in equity method investments on our balance sheet. Our portfolio yield is 8.3%, and we expect it to increase over time as we fund the higher-yield investments that we have closed over the past year. To sum it up, we have built a base of diversified transactions, creating a recurring income stream that is a reliable source of income year after year, especially given the high-quality performance of the assets, as is evidenced by our realized loss rate of less than 10 basis points. On slide 10, we are making a modification to one of our metrics, adjusted net investment income, to include other recurring sources of revenue, and it is now called adjusted recurring net investment income.

In addition to the income generated from our portfolio, we are also beginning to generate meaningful recurring fees from our retained interest in securitizations and CCH1 asset management fees. Combining these other recurring income sources with our portfolio income will provide a metric that is a helpful indicator of the growing high-quality recurring income that we are generating. When comparing our adjusted recurring net investment income for the first half of 2025 of $164 million to the same period last year, it has grown 19%. As a reminder, this is not our only source of income, and we also have income from gain-on-sale from our securitization activities and upfront fees from our CCH1 co-investment structure, which are more dependent on new transactions. On slide 11, the efforts we have put into scaling a high-quality investment platform have resulted in our third investment-grade rating.

We already had this rating with Moody's and Fitch, and we were recently upgraded to investment-grade by S&P. Having three investment-grade ratings assists us in minimizing our cost of debt. This upgrade from S&P is a notable validation of our business model, especially given the macroeconomic backdrop that we have seen thus far in 2025. Subsequent to receiving our S&P upgrade, we issued $1 billion of bonds with $600 million that matures in 2031 and $400 million that matures in 2035. The proceeds were largely used to refinance $900 million of debt, and this transaction displays our capabilities in managing our debt structure to minimize risk and cost. To further illustrate these capabilities, we partially tendered the 2026 bonds that were issued in 2021 when the 10-year Treasury was at 75 basis points, and it was evident that interest rates could be much higher when we refinanced the bonds.

We managed our business and scaled our platform to give us access to the investment-grade market and also executed some hedges and were able to refinance at a cost that keeps us well-positioned to meet our earnings guidance and hit our target ROE. This is a great example of the resilient balance sheet we have built and the capabilities of our liability platform. Related to our capital structure, we ended the quarter with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.8 times and continue to operate within our target range of 1.5 to 2 times. Lastly, we continue to operate with strong levels of liquidity, which was $1.4 billion at the end of the second quarter. This liquidity will provide us flexibility in funding our business and managing the refinancing of our remaining 2026 bond maturity. On slide 12, we illustrate the trend in our portfolio yield and our realized cost of debt.

We have been able to maintain our margins even as interest rates have risen, and expect to see our portfolio yield further increase as our higher-yielding investments are funded. We will see a slight increase in our cost of debt next quarter when the recent debt issuance impacts our interest expense. The effective weighted average cost of this recent issuance was 6.28%, and we expect it to impact our total average cost by approximately 20 basis points. On slide 13, our Q2 adjusted EPS was $0.60, and we are continuing to deliver an attractive return with our ROE of 11.9% in Q2. Our newly modified metric, adjusted recurring net investment income, was $85 million for the quarter and increased 25% from the same period in the prior year. Our gain-on-sale origination fee and other income was $9 million.

As highlighted on our Q1 call, our full-year gain-on-sale activity is expected to be more in line with the levels seen between 2021 and 2023, and we expect the majority of the total gain-on-sale this year to come through in the second half of the year due to the expected timing of closings. Overall, we are executing on the activities that will continue to deliver value through the growth of our adjusted recurring net investment income and the efficiency created from CCH1 on the need for equity capital, and we believe we are well on track to deliver on our guidance to grow earnings into 2027. Before I hand the call back to Jeff, in an effort to ensure we are providing information that is most useful to our investors, we will be publishing on our website a summary of our key historical metrics that should assist in building models.

We hope that it is helpful and certainly would like to hear your feedback. With that, I will pass it back to Jeff for a few topics in closing.

Speaker 10

Thanks, Chuck. Turning to page 14, we present our sustainability and impact highlights, noting our cumulative carbon count and water count numbers reflect the significant impact of our investment strategy over time. Concluding on page 15, our business model has produced the powerful combination of robust investment activity, access to deep pools of capital, attractive margins, and results that are non-cyclical and sustainable in all interest rate and policy environments. The core components of this resilient business model have been in place for several years, validating its true durability. Successful execution of this business model relies on a talented team, and my HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital colleagues continue to flawlessly and relentlessly overcome all obstacles reflected in our ongoing ability to achieve our goals. As always, thank you to this outstanding team. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press *1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press *2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the * key. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question comes from Chris Dendrinos with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you and good evening. Maybe to start here, we noted that you all were an acquirer, I think, of the ServiceCo from Sonova. Can you maybe chat a little bit about that transaction and what that does for you all going forward? Thanks.

Speaker 10

Sure. Thanks for the question, Chris. Just to clarify, SunStrong is a joint venture that's 50% owned by HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital and is a servicer of residential solar leases. SunStrong has been awarded the servicing by the purchasers of Sonova of the Sonova portfolio, and we're certainly pleased by that. We're pleased by the progress of SunStrong overall. We have a good management team there. The company is well-positioned in the current environment, and the Sonova transaction will provide scale to the business. We're certainly very pleased with the progress of our SunStrong team, but that's a 50% joint venture in terms of HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital's ownership.

Speaker 1

Got it. Thank you. I mean, I guess you know any kind of color you can provide on how that might impact EPS going forward, and I have a quick follow-up as well.

Speaker 10

Go ahead, Chuck.

Speaker 2

Yeah. Hey, Chris. This is Chuck. Right now, SunStrong, as Jeff mentioned, is a JV, and the JV that we'll be servicing at this current time is not really coming through in our results that you can see. As the servicing platform does get some scale with the Sonova assets coming into it and over time, whatever other activities it might get into, we will start to see some of the margins from that business come through, most likely with where you see our other equity investments coming in.

Speaker 1

Got it. Thanks. I guess just a related note on RESI performance. I think there was an article in The Wall Street Journal a couple of weeks back highlighting some underperformance of loans out there. I think they mentioned GoodLeap specifically. Anything to comment on as far as that portfolio is performing? I think you've highlighted that you have really low losses, so I assumed that you all weren't being impacted. Any kind of thoughts there? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thanks for the question. You did say loans in your question, and the Wall Street Journal article specifically referenced loans. More than 95% of the HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital portfolio is leases, and lease customers have significant incentives to continue to make the payments, much more so than loan customers. Our portfolio continues to perform very, very well. Many of the issues that were brought about in that article were present in residential solar loans, they're just not present in leases. That's a little bit of apples and oranges there.

Speaker 1

Got it. That was very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hey, guys. This is Tyler Bisset for Brian. Thanks for taking our questions. You've seen steadily increasing adjusted ROEs, suggesting ROEs on new deals as meaningfully higher than your legacy deals. You also called out some incremental ROEs of like 19% and up to 28% with the additional CCH1 leverage. Can you discuss how you expect your adjusted ROE to trend from here? Could you see a meaningful bump as you work through the CCH1 funding?

Speaker 10

Thanks for the question. Maybe I will start, and Chuck can add on. I just want to make a clarification that the ROEs that are on slide seven are incremental ROE dollars invested without taking into account expenses or SG&A or anything like that. There are a cluster of ROEs of incremental dollars put to work under the more and more capital-efficient structure that we're displaying on that slide. That doesn't relate directly to the ROEs on HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital's business, but ROEs on HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital's business do have an upward trend influenced by some of the same impact on this slide. I wouldn't compare them specifically to the ROEs on the full business when we include the operating expenses of the business. Chuck, if you want to add anything to that.

Speaker 2

Yeah. I think the other thing I'd add is, you know, in the prepared remarks, we mentioned some commentary around capital efficiency. To the extent that we continue on that trend to reduce the amount of equity needed to fund our investments in some of these activities we're getting into with asset management fees with CCH1, to the extent we're increasing our earnings there because they don't need equity, we will see a steady increase in ROE. I wouldn't say that there's going to be any big jump. It'll most likely just be a gradual increase.

Speaker 3

Super helpful. On the CCH1 debt, how will this mechanically flow through your income statements, and how do credit rating agencies treat this debt? Is this going to be applied to your leverage ratio?

Speaker 2

Yeah. On the first part on how the debt comes through in our financials, the debt, so CCH1 is not in its entirety on its balance sheet. It is a joint venture. The debt was placed at CCH1. It does not show up in our financials, and the way that it will come through in our results is through increasing our returns a bit on CCH1 as investments are funded with the proceeds. In terms of the rating agencies, we have talked to the rating agencies about this, of course. In fact, I think S&P may have actually written this in their report that when they look at these kinds of structures, as long as you are keeping the debt-to-equity ratio under 0.5 to 1, they don't really factor it in.

It's just kind of a non-event, and we don't have any intent to go any higher than that leverage ratio. I think we're going to be just fine from a rating agency standpoint.

Speaker 3

Great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Maheep Mandloi with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Good evening. Thanks for the question, yeah. On slide six, as looking at the mix here, could you just talk about what is included in the mix trend here? I think it's the first time we saw this broken out. It's nice to see that. What's in there? Secondly, just on the mix of BTM solar and BTM energy efficiency, can you talk about historically how's that trended? Are you seeing more of energy efficiency now, or how do you think about that?

Speaker 10

Thanks, Maheep. On the next frontier, just as a reminder, in our February call, we put forth this notion of next frontier where we may expand the business. I talked a little bit about that in the prepared remarks. The relevant slide is on page 17 in the appendix in this afternoon's deck. The progression from disclosing in February where we may take the business next to disclosing that we have some of these investments in the pipeline is sort of the natural chronology. We're not going to talk specifically about exactly what's in the pipeline. The third step of that will be to actually close a transaction, and then we'll talk about it. I will say I'm very pleased that in relatively short order, we've identified next frontier investments, and they're at a stage where they are in the pipeline.

I think we feel good about that and the diversification that it'll bring to the business. On the second part of your question, I think the breakout in behind the meter between solar, which is primarily community, and residential solar and storage, and a little bit of C&I solar and the energy efficiency is just something we thought would be helpful. I think that split, which this quarter is roughly 50/50, is relatively consistent in terms of what has been the behind-the-meter slice and the relevant sizes of those two pieces of business. Hopefully, that's helpful in understanding what's in the pipeline.

Speaker 9

No, that's helpful. Maybe just one clarification. I think somewhere on the slide, maybe slide four, I saw you guys talking about replacing tax equity. Just to clarify, that's for post-tax credit timeline, or is it something you're looking to invest in, even or replacing tax equity in the next few years here as well?

Speaker 10

Okay. I'm going to ask Marc to answer that one.

Speaker 7

Hey, Maheep. It's Marc. We would not anticipate replacing tax equity in the current structure, but as tax credits go away, there is less need for tax equity, and that will create more room in the capital stack for investors like us who focus on monetizing cash positions. This is primarily a post-tax credit opportunity.

Speaker 9

Perfect. Thank you.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Oh, great. Thanks for taking the questions. Last quarter, you talked about, I think, a record volume of inbound client requests, and we saw that with the pipeline expanding quarter over quarter. I would just like to get a sense of what you and really your customers are trying to solve for in the current environment. I think you made some comments in your opening remarks around the shifting policy environment and your expectations that transactions will continue to pick up in the back half. We'd just sort of love to get an understanding of how you and your clients are approaching some of the policy and regulatory changes here as it relates to developing not only the 12-month pipeline, but further add opportunities.

Speaker 10

Sure. Thanks for the question, Noah. I'm actually going to ask Susan to go ahead and answer that.

Speaker 5

Yeah. Thanks, Noah. The fundamentals are so strong. That's what's the core tailwinds for our clients' business. Obviously, we follow on as those projects and their pipelines mature. With the demand side of the business, not only on the utility scale side, but behind the meter, Sunrun and some of their clients have reported out, that's really where the fundamentals are. Clearly, everyone's now navigating through what's a pass with the LBB, but have invested through safe harborings to be able to continue and plan and build out their pipelines for not only next year, but for the next several years. Our pipeline, again, is that we report out is for 12 months.

Speaker 7

Yeah. To follow up on the previous question, I mean, I believe certainly for grid-connected, but you know, probably for a decent chunk of the overall portfolio, there's been substantial safe harboring already. This future opportunity around replacing tax equity, I imagine that might flow first to behind the meter and later to utility, but over a multi-year period. Is that kind of the right way to think about it?

Speaker 10

I think that's right, Noah. As Marc said, that's still a couple of years out. We just wanted to plant the seed that there's now going to be a void in the capital stack. You know, an outcome of this tax policy change may be that HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital is able to put more dollars to work per project. Again, this is not for a couple of years, and I think the way you laid it out is likely the way it will play out.

Speaker 7

Great. If I could sneak one more in, I just want to talk about cash generation. You know, the continued helpful disclosures around adjusted cash flow from ops and other portfolio collections. I do notice that that is somewhat down on a run rate versus 2024. Can you just talk through any kind of expected timing in cash generation for the back half?

Speaker 2

Hey, Noah. This is Chuck. Looking at what's going into these numbers, when we look at cash collected from our portfolio, certainly that includes all of the cash distributions that we're receiving related to the operations of the projects. There can be other activities that occur at the project, such as refinancing of debt or initial debt that's being put onto a project that, getting favorable terms on that financing, we oftentimes get a distribution out of it. It's tough to really get a trend of that, of course. In 2024, there was a little bit of that going on that is causing this to look like there's a little bit of a downtrend here. I will say that this quarter, we did have a bit of an uptick in cash received from both our equity investments and our loans. We're seeing a positive trend there.

I would say that the trend that you're seeing right now, the rest of the year, we'll probably continue that same growth rate and will probably mirror the growth in our portfolio.

Speaker 7

Excellent. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

You're welcome. Thank you.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Moses Sutton with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Thanks for taking my question. Closed transactions seemed rather low. I think you noted the year-to-date numbers, so it implies around $190 million, if I'm getting that right. How should we characterize that in the timing element? Conversely, on the adjusted cash from operations plus other portfolio collections, that was back up to $200 million from the negative number in the first quarter. I know that's also a lumpy thing based on how you get your collections. Should we think of that as returning to a $300 million plus a quarter number? Just those two on transactions and then the adjusted cash from operations.

Speaker 10

Thanks, Moses, for the question. I'll take the first part. I'll ask Chuck to take the second part of that question. I would encourage you to read absolutely nothing into the second quarter volumes in isolation. I think we've consistently talked about the lumpiness in the business and the nature of closings being out of our control and really driven by our clients. Sometimes we have outsized quarters and slower quarters in terms of actual investment volume. It's part of the reason we do guidance over three years. Certainly, on a number such as volume in the business, I'd encourage you to at least look at a one-year number and not a quarterly number. As Chuck mentioned in the prepared remarks, it is our expectation at this point that volumes will exceed last year. I wouldn't read anything into the second quarter. For the other part of the question, Chuck.

Speaker 2

Yeah. Hey, Moses. I think the answer to your question really is tied into the response to Noah's question here. When you're looking at the trailing 12 months from last quarter, going to this quarter, it drops off a little bit because the last quarter in the trailing 12 months that was in their last period had some of the, I'll call it, one-time cash distributions coming off of some of our projects. I wouldn't read into that decline in the trailing 12 months at all there, in terms of a run rate.

That's very helpful. If I could squeeze one more in, if I recall from maybe it was two or three years ago when there was confusion in the investor community on the timing of cash collections or sort of cash flow waterfall in projects where tax equity got money before you, just the structure of the matter, it implied that at a certain point in project life, in aggregate, when you did a lot of equity, after you did a lot of equity investments, you would actually earn more than the amount that was shown up in adjusted earnings. Is there a certain point that we might expect?

This is a further out question on cash flow and cash waterfall, where you, even though you're continuing to make equity investments, prep equity investments, JV investments like that, where some of the legacy stuff will be seeing cash come in at a pretty significantly higher number as tax equity reaches their hurdle. Is that around 2025, 2026, 2027? Is that a fair view there? Could you quantify that? Sorry for the long question.

Yeah, it's kind of tough to pinpoint exactly when that's going to happen. Yes, it will start to happen. As I mentioned a little bit ago, we are starting to get a little bit more cash coming in the door. Because we are continuing to add investments with that similar profile, we can't really put a definitive date where you're going to start to see that in our portfolio. It has started to happen on old deals.

Okay. Fair enough. Very helpful. Thank you.

Thank you.

Speaker 6

Thank you. I'd remind all participants, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Vikram Bhakri with Citi. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. It's Ted on for Vik. Just one question on the model. I think there's a comment on the prior quarter call that gain on sale revenue would be more in line with 2021 to 2023 levels. Should we still expect that to be the case this year? If so, what do you expect in terms of cadence for the third and fourth quarters?

Speaker 2

Yeah, that's the case. We do still expect to see gain on sale in the levels that we mentioned, average of 2021 through 2023. Q3 and Q4 certainly will be higher than we saw in Q2 here. I would just prorate Q3, Q4 to get to those total average annual levels.

Got it. Thank you.

You're welcome. Thank you.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ben Kallo with Baird. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good evening. How are you?

Speaker 2

Good. Thanks, Ben.

Speaker 7

Just on the ITC, can you talk about what you're seeing in terms of projects being pulled forward from ITC changes? Or is it, if we could break it down by solar and everything else, and then utility solar and everything else. When you look at the next frontier investments like geothermal and fuel cells, which now have a favorable tax treatment, how do you view this under that next frontier type of investment label? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Ben. I think on the first part of the question, we're not seeing meaningful pull forward. I think the nature of many of the investments that we make and the projects that our clients develop is such that they're normally moving as fast as they can. I think our page five is a good indication of how much work they have to do to get a project to commercial operations. We're not really hearing or seeing from our clients much in the way of acceleration. We are seeing our clients remain active. We're not seeing delays, but we're really not seeing much in the way of acceleration. On your second part of your question, I would just answer it more holistically that many of the investment categories in the next frontier are less susceptible, I would say, to policy changes and less driven by tax policy.

That's one of the evolutions of our business that over time, our business, through the phase-out that we're already seeing in some of the core business and through the next frontier, there'll be less of a tax policy orientation to our business over time as well. I think that that's probably the best way to answer your question there.

Speaker 7

Okay. If I could sneak one more, sorry if you covered it, I've jumped around, but in the past, you talked about maybe moving internationally. Could you just give us an update there?

Speaker 2

Sure. I don't think we really have anything to report, Ben. You know, we've talked about it a few times. I think the most likely approach there, as we've said before, is to work with one of our existing long-term clients, many of whom are multinationals, on a non-U.S. project and use that as a way to expand our business internationally. We really just don't have anything currently to report on that front on this call.

Speaker 7

Okay. Great. Thank you very much, sir.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Ben.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, there are no further questions. The conference of HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.