Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Hayward delivered a clean beat: revenue $0.244B (+7% y/y) and Primary EPS (adj.) $0.14, both above S&P Global consensus; adjusted EBITDA rose 16% to $59.1M with 170 bps margin expansion to 24.2%. The beat was driven by positive price realization (mid-single digits), resilient aftermarket demand, and tariff mitigation actions . Primary EPS and revenue consensus retrieved from S&P Global*.
- Management raised FY25 guidance: net sales to $1.095–$1.110B (from $1.070–$1.100B) and adjusted EBITDA to $292–$297M (from $280–$290M); free cash flow guidance increased by ~$20M to ~$170M, citing stronger profitability, capex timing, and inventory improvements .
- Operational execution: gross margin 51.2% (+150 bps y/y), net leverage reduced to 1.8x (lowest in ~4 years), liquidity $552M; Omni controls logged double-digit growth and AI-enabled customer service resolved ~80% of inbound calls without human intervention .
- Near-term watch items: Q4 faces tough hurricane comps (no repeat of Q4’24 storm repair demand); tariff environment remains fluid though mitigation (China exposure cut from ~10% to ~3% by year-end) is ahead of plan .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Positive price and resilient aftermarket drove a revenue and EPS beat; adjusted EBITDA up 16% with margin up 170 bps to 24.2%: “strong execution… resiliency of our aftermarket model… continued traction in our strategic initiatives” .
- Technology/commercial momentum: Omni controls posted double-digit growth, “nearly twice the overall Hayward growth rate”; AI agents resolved ~80% of customer calls, eliminating hold times .
- Balance sheet and cash generation: net leverage down to 1.8x; total liquidity $552M including $448M cash/short-term investments and $104M availability; YTD cash from operations $283M .
What Went Wrong
- Non-recurring litigation expense of $2.8M affected results (captured in “Other” adjustments); SG&A rose 8% y/y to $69.8M with 30 bps deleverage on higher incentive comp and wage inflation .
- Europe & Rest of World pricing mix: ERW net price declined due to increased mix of discounted early buy shipments; ERW margin benefited from a tariff refund (~100 bps one-time), so some margin lift is non-repeatable .
- Q4 outlook headwind: lapping prior-year hurricane-driven repair demand; volume expected “slightly down” versus last year absent positive weather extension .
Financial Results
Quarterly trend (sequential; oldest → newest)
Q3 2025 vs prior year and vs estimates
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)
KPIs (Q3 2025)
Guidance Changes
Note: Management also reiterated mid-single digit net price realization in 2025 and announced 2026 U.S. price increases mid-to-high single digits (partly discounted via early buy); not formal line-item guidance but directional price commentary .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Net sales increased 7%… gross profit margin increased 150 bps to 51.2%, and adjusted EBITDA margin increased 170 bps to 24.2%… we’re raising our full-year guidance.” — CEO Kevin Holleran .
- “Our new AI agents… resolving approximately 80% of [customer service] calls without the need for human intervention.” — CEO Kevin Holleran .
- “We are lowering direct sourcing from China into the U.S. as a percentage of COGS from ~10% to 3% by year-end… de-risks our supply chain.” — CEO Kevin Holleran .
- “Free cash flow guidance increased by ~$20M… half attributable to higher EBITDA midpoint… plus capex timing and inventory day reductions.” — CFO Iveyann Jones .
- “We proudly support the U.S. market with over 90% of products sold in the U.S. built in one of our four U.S. manufacturing facilities… reputation for quality and service means more than just lower price.” — CEO Kevin Holleran .
Q&A Highlights
- Demand cadence: sales-out strengthened through the quarter, with a “really strong September”; warm weather extended the season; Canada +21%, Europe low-teens, Asia >20% .
- Early buy: tracking solid; discount off price increase and extended terms; price increases offset tariffs dollar-for-dollar, with internal actions to restore structural margins .
- Innovation and pricing: OmniX ecosystem aims to automate the installed base via break-fix upgrades; no material trade-off observed between price and volume; tech adoption supporting margins .
- Private label risk: management emphasized full-line offering, service network, U.S. manufacturing footprint (>90% U.S.-built for U.S. market), and brand loyalty among dealers .
- Capital allocation: stepped-up capex (~3%+ of revenue over next several years) for automation and ERP; optionality across M&A (residential/commercial pool, flow control) and share repurchases under $450M authorization .
- Q4 guidance context: hurricane lap headwind; NA early buy modest improvement; ERW early buy shipped more in Q3 so less y/y in Q4; net volumes expected slightly down y/y barring weather extension .
- Pricing outlook: 2026 U.S. pricing mid-to-high single digits (discounted through early buys), aiming to return to more normal inflationary environment longer term .
- ERW margins: improved with stabilization in Spain and one-time tariff refund (~100 bps benefit); sequential margin progress should persist even without one-timers .
Estimates Context
FY25 context: Guidance ($1.095–$1.110B revenue; $292–$297M adj. EBITDA) compares to S&P Global consensus of ~$$1.103B revenue and ~$$294.6M EBITDA, implying modest upward bias to estimates post-raise . FY25 Primary EPS consensus ~0.761*.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Where estimates may adjust: upward revisions to FY25 revenue/EBITDA/Primary EPS likely given the Q3 beat and guidance raise; potential tempering for Q4 volume on hurricane lap noted by management .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Beat-and-raise quarter with expanding margins and resilient aftermarket; pricing and Omni-driven mix support profitability — constructive for near-term sentiment .
- Guidance now brackets S&P FY25 consensus; further estimate upgrades plausible if early buy translates to sustained demand and tariff mitigation continues to outpace headwinds .
- Watch Q4 comp headwinds (no storm-driven repair tailwind) and weather sensitivity; any season extension could offset management’s slightly down y/y volume expectation .
- Structural margin actions (supply chain reshoring, automation, ERP) and AI-enabled service provide medium-term earnings durability; monitor capex ramp (~3%+ of revenue) and execution milestones .
- Commercial pool expansion (ChlorKing cross-sell) and flow control optionality add inorganic levers; valuation-sensitive buybacks under $450M authorization enhance capital return flexibility .
- Pricing discipline looks intact; 2026 price actions mid-to-high single digits in U.S. (with early buy discounts) should be absorbed by innovation and installed-base value-add, though consumer inflation fatigue warrants monitoring .
- Risk monitors: tariff policy shifts, private-label competition, litigation one-offs (Q3 $2.8M), and European pricing mix; mitigation plans and U.S. manufacturing footprint remain key offsets .