Hudbay Minerals - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded today, February 19, 2025 at 11:00 A.M. Eastern Time. I will now turn the conference over to Candace Brûlé, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Candace Brûlé (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you. Operator, good morning and welcome to Hudbay's 2024 fourth quarter results conference call. Hudbay's financial results were issued this morning and are available on our website at www.hudbay.com. A corresponding PowerPoint presentation is available in the Investor Events section of our website and we encourage you to refer to it during this call. Our presenter today is Peter Kukielski, Hudbay's President and Chief Executive Officer. Accompanying Peter for the Q&A portion of the call will be Eugene Lee, our Chief Financial Officer, and Andre Lauzon, our Chief Operating Officer. Please note that comments made on today's call may contain forward-looking information and this information by its nature is subject to risks and uncertainties and as such actual results may differ materially from the views expressed today.

For further information on these risks and uncertainties, please consult the Company's relevant filings on SEDAR plus and EDGAR. These documents are also available on our website. As a reminder, all amounts discussed on today's call are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. And now I'll pass the call over to Peter Kukielski.

Peter Kukielski (President and CEO)

Thank you, Candace. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for today's call. I'll start by saying we had another incredible year in 2024. It was a year of execution as we delivered record financial performance and fully transformed our balance sheet. We proudly achieved consolidated production guidance for all metals with gold production significantly exceeding the top end of the guidance range and we outperformed our twice improved consolidated cash cost guidance demonstrating industry leading cost performance. These strong operating results enabled us to achieve record revenues of more than $2 billion and record free cash flow generation of more than $350 million in 2024. This was driven by our enhanced and diversified operating platform where we continue to demonstrate operational excellence and disciplined capital allocation.

Our Peru operations delivered steady copper production and better than expected gold production in 2024 as mill throughput continued to exceed design capacity and we took advantage of a recent government initiative to allow mining companies to operate above permitted throughput levels. Pampacancha also continued to contribute high grade copper and gold ore. In addition, the team is advancing studies on future opportunities to further increase mill throughput in Peru.

Our Manitoba operations achieved record annual gold production increasing by 14% from 2023 and exceeding the top end of our production guidance range. I am very proud of the team's continuous improvement efforts which resulted in impressive cost performance that significantly exceeded our expectations. This success was in part due to the contribution from the New Britannia mill which was refurbished in 2021 and we continue to deliver high returns from this brownfield investment project. Our British Columbia operations have enhanced our operating platform with 2024 being the first full year of having a third operating asset. We continued our stabilization and optimization efforts in 2024 including increasing mining activities, and our focus for 2025 will be on mill optimization initiatives to enhance mill throughput.

As a result of the free cash flow generation from the enhanced business plus the proceeds from the successful equity offering we completed in May, we have proudly reduced net debt by more than $500 million in 2024. We have transformed our balance sheet to now be in the lowest leverage position of our peers, a significant change from one of the highest leveraged positions more than a year ago.

We are in the best financial position we have ever been in to prudently deliver our attractive pipeline of growth opportunities and this is timely as our Copper World project in Arizona has received the final key permits and we are now advancing the project through feasibility studies and a minority joint venture partner process.

I'll go into more detail on our recent achievements throughout today's presentation, along with our outlook for 2025 and our plans for advancing many exciting growth initiatives to continue to unlock value for all stakeholders.

Turning to Slide 4, the fourth quarter of 2024 had strong production and operating cost performance across the business. Consolidated copper production was 43,000 tonnes in the quarter, an increase of 38% compared to the third quarter and in line with quarterly production cadence expectations. Consolidated gold production was 94,000 ounces, which significantly exceeded our expectations for the quarter and increased 6% from the strong levels achieved in the prior quarter. This was primarily due to higher grades in Peru and continued strong gold production in Manitoba. As a result, we achieved our consolidated full year production guidance for all metals and significantly exceeded the top end of our production guidance range for gold.

We had another quarter of industry-leading cost performance with consolidated cash costs of $0.45 per pound of copper and sustaining cash costs of $1.37 per po.

While a majority of our revenues continue to be from copper, our unique copper and gold diversification adds further cash flow, resiliency and strong leverage to higher metal prices. This is seen through the increasing portion of our revenues from gold representing 35% of total revenues in 2024 compared to 29% in 2023. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $257 million, a 25% increase compared to the prior quarter, resulting in full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $823 million, a substantial increase from $648 million a year ago.

Adjusted net earnings was $0.18 per share in the fourth quarter, a 40% increase compared to the third quarter.

Our financial results would have been even higher if excess copper concentrate in Peru was sold in the quarter. As a result of the strong ramp up of production during the quarter, there remained approximately 30,000 tons of copper concentrate inventory at the end of December compared to the typical levels of 15,000 tons. The excess copper concentrate is expected to be sold in the first quarter of 2025.

Slide 5 highlights our efforts to transform our balance sheet in 2024, which has positioned us as the lowest levered company in our peer group. As I mentioned, we ended the year with $582 million in cash and cash equivalents, an increase of $332 million over the course of 2024 due to a successful equity offering and record free cash flows bolstered by strong copper and gold prices. Hudbay has successfully delivered six consecutive quarters of meaningful free cash flow generation as a result of recent brownfield investments, continuous operational improvement efforts and steady cost control across the business.

We used part of the equity offering, use of proceeds and the free cash flow generation to make $245 million of debt repayments during the year. This included repurchasing and retiring a total of $83 million of senior unsecured notes and as well as completing the repayment of $100 million on the revolving credit facilities. We also fully repaid the gold prepay facility with $62 million in gold deliveries during 2024. As a result, we have reduced our net debt by over $500 million in 2024 and as of December 31st we have $526 million of net debt. The net debt reduction together with higher levels of adjusted EBITDA over the last 12 months has significantly improved our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio to 0.6 times in comparison to a ratio of 1.6 times at the end of 2023 and over 2 times at the end of 2022.

In addition to these efforts in November we took further action to improve balance sheet resilience and financial flexibility by proactively extending our senior secured revolving credit facilities from October 2025 to November 2028. This provides increased financial flexibility to accretively maintain our 4.5% coupon bonds until maturity in 2026 and advance Copper World towards a sanction decision in accordance with the three plan.

The newly extended $450 million revolving credit facility includes an improved pricing grid reflecting the enhanced financial position of Hudbay and features an opportunity to increase the facility by an additional $150 million at our discretion, providing additional financial flexibility.

Looking at our Peru operations on Slide 6. In the fourth quarter we produced 34,000 tonnes of copper, 38,000 ounces of gold, 970,000 ounces of silver and 195 tonnes of molybdenum. Copper, gold and silver production was significantly stronger than the third quarter as a result of high grades from Pampacancha as the planned stripping program was successfully completed in the third quarter as well as a larger portion of all mill feed coming from Pampacancha. The strong fourth quarter in Peru resulted in the full year annual guidance ranges being achieved for all metals with the production of 99,000 tonnes of copper and 98,000 ounces of gold in 2024. Peru gold production exceeded the upper end of the guidance range by 6%, primarily a result of additional gold benches that were mined in the Pampacancha pit ahead of schedule and pulled forward from 2025.

The Peru operations continued to benefit from strong and consistent mill throughput averaging approximately 87,000 tonnes per day in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024. The mill achieved record copper recoveries of 88% in the fourth quarter, higher than the previous record of 87% achieved in the fourth quarter of 2023. Peru demonstrated strong cost performance and exceeded our expectations in the fourth quarter. As a result, full year cash costs were $1.18 per pound in 2024, outperforming the low end of our annual cost guidance range. Strong mill performance and focus on cost efficiencies has proudly positioned Constancia as the lowest cost open pit. We continue to evaluate opportunities to further increase mill throughput in the coming years with the government regulatory allowance to exceed permitted levels by 10%.

This opportunity has the potential to increase production volumes to partially offset grade declines following the depletion of Pampacancha in late 2025. Slide 7 highlights the record year we had in Manitoba. Our Snow Lake operations delivered exceptional operating performance and continued to exceed expectations in both production and efficiency in the fourth quarter. We also proudly achieved a significant milestone in December with the production of a total of 1 million ounces of gold from the Lalor mine, reflecting the success of our strategy to maximize gold production from the Snow Lake operations.

Record annual gold production of 214,000 ounces was achieved in 2024 through a combination of higher metallurgical recoveries at the New Britannia and Stall mills and the strategic allocation of more gold ore feed to the New Britannia mill. This success reflects the positive impact of ongoing continuous improvement initiatives across the entire business unit. Full year gold and copper production both exceeded the upper end of the 2024 guidance ranges. Zinc production was in line with guidance and silver production was at the top end of the guidance range. The Lalor ore mine achieved strong results averaging 4,600 tons per day in the fourth quarter, marking the highest quarterly ore production in 2024. This strong performance was driven by positive muck fragmentation, stope availability and improved mobile equipment availability.

The New Britannia mill had another quarter of exceptional performance with the mill operating consistently above nameplate capacity, achieving an average throughput of above 2000 tonnes per day in the fourth quarter. Plant availability remained strong, supported by ongoing low capital projects aimed at further increasing throughput while maintaining targeted gold recoveries of 90%.

At the Stall base metal mill, we produced a similar quantity of ore in the quarter compared to the prior, while annual processing declined by 7% year over year. Aligned with our strategy to allocate more Lalor ore feed to New Britannia to maximize gold recoveries.

Manitoba's gold cash costs were $607 per ounce in the fourth quarter and $606 per ounce for the full year. These costs remain better than expected as a result of continued operating efficiencies and focus on strong cost control, resulting in full year Manitoba cash costs significantly outperforming the low end of the 2024 guidance range. Similarly, our sustaining cash costs remain stable throughout the year in Manitoba, averaging an impressive $868 per ounce in 2024.

Our Snow Lake operations are generating significant cash flows as operating costs remain stable and we benefit from expanding margins in the current high gold price environment. Slide 8 ranks our operations against other large scale gold mines in Canada at $868 per ounce in sustaining cash costs. Snow Lake is the lowest cost gold mine in Canada, achieving margins of roughly 70% at current gold prices through our continuous improvement efforts, focus on cost control efforts to maximize gold production and benefits from base metal byproduct diversification. We are proud to say that our Snow Lake business was the highest margin gold operation in Canada in 2024.

Moving to our third operating business unit on slide nine, our British Columbia operations produced 6,000 tonnes of copper, 4.6 thousand ounces of gold and 59,000 ounces of silver. In the fourth quarter, production in the quarter was impacted by lower mill throughput due to planned and unplanned maintenance shutdowns. Full year copper production was below the guidance range primarily as a result of lower grades in stockpiled ore and lower throughput during the ramp up of stabilization and optimization efforts throughout the year. Full year gold production was in line with annual guidance.

Since acquiring Copper Mountain in June 2023, we have been focused on advancing operational stabilization plans including opening up the mine by reactivating the full mining fleet, adding additional haul trucks, adding additional mining faces, optimizing the ore feed to the plant and implementing plant improvement initiatives that mirror Hudbay's successful processes at Constancia. Stabilization plans have successfully increased the total tonnes moved and resulted in stronger mill performance as demonstrated by high mill availability of 92% and copper recoveries of 82% in 2024 compared to 85% and 80% respectively in 2023.

The focus in the fourth quarter of 2024 was on mining efficiencies and operator recruitment to effectively utilize the available haul truck fleet. As a result, total material moved is expected to continue to increase in 2025 as per the mine plan. As I mentioned earlier, mill performance in the fourth quarter was impacted by the ramp up periods following the planned and unplanned maintenance shutdowns. In addition, elevated clay material impacted the secondary crushing circuit. Several initiatives were advanced in the quarter to address these issues.

Full-year cash costs in British Columbia were $2.74 per pound and were above the high end of the annual cost guidance range due to lower copper production. As mentioned, progressive operational improvements are expected throughout 2025. Mining activities will continue to execute the three-year accelerated stripping program intended to bring higher grade ore into the mine plan, and in January we completed feasibility engineering to debottleneck and increase the nominal plant capacity to its permitted capacity of 50,000 tons per day earlier than contemplated in the technical report.

We released our 2025 annual guidance with our 2024 results and our production guidance is summarized on slide 10. The 2025 consolidated copper production guidance midpoint of 133,000 tonnes is expected to remain consistent with 20.

This is a result of higher expected production in British Columbia as mill throughput optimization plans are implemented, offset by a lower portion of ore feed from Pampacancha in Peru as it depletes this year. The 2025 consolidated gold production guidance midpoint of 278,000 ounces reflects continued strong gold production in Manitoba offset by lower gold grades in Peru as high grade gold benches were mined ahead of schedule in 2024 as well as a lower portion of ore feed from Pampacancha in 2025.

Specifically for Peru, the 2025 copper production guidance midpoint is expected to be 88.5 thousand tonnes and gold production is expected to be 54.5 thousand ounces lower than 2024 levels as less mill ore feed will be coming from Pampacancha. As mentioned earlier, additional high grade gold benches were mined in late 2024 and pulled forward from 2025. The Pampacancha deposit is now expected to be depleted in early December 2025 as opposed to October as the mine plan has smoothed Pampacancha production throughout the year. Total mill ore feed from Pampacancha is expected to be approximately 25% in 2025 lower than the typical 1/3 in prior years.

In Manitoba we expect to produce 200,000 ounces of gold based on the midpoint of the 2025 guidance range. The impressive operating performance we saw in 2024 is expected to continue into 2025 resulting in our updated 2025 gold production guidance to be 8% higher than the previously announced guidance of 185,000 ounces. Zinc production for 2025 is expected to be 24,000 tonnes which is lower than 2024 production due to lower grade base metals in the mining sequence at Lalor. As we continue to prioritize the gold zones.

In British Columbia, 2025 copper production is expected to be approximately 35,000 tonnes based on the midpoint. This is a 31% increase from the 2024 levels as a result of mill throughput ramp up and higher grades in the second half of the year. This is a result of several mill initiatives including the conversion of the third ball mill to a second SAG mill and higher grades from the accelerated stripping schedule. The mill throughput ramp up reflects the first half of 2025 at similar throughput levels seen in 2024 with a significant increase in the second half of 2025 concurrent with the completion of the second SAG mill project, ramping up towards 50,000 tonnes per day in 2026.

As shown on slide 11. Consolidated copper cash costs in 2025 are expected to be within $0.80 to $1.00 per pound as we continue to focus on maintaining strong cost control across our operations to drive industry leading margins. Sustaining cash costs are expected to be within $2.25 to $2.65 per pound reflecting slightly lower copper production, lower byproduct credits and higher sustaining capital expenditures compared to 2024. In Peru, 2025 cash costs are expected to be between $1.35 to $1.65 per pound as continued, strong cost control offsets lower production and byproduct credits compared to 2024 in Manitoba. 2025 gold cash costs are expected to be between $650-$850 per ounce remaining at industry low levels during strong margins at current gold prices. In British Columbia, cash costs are expected to be between $2.45 to $3.45 per pound.

This is an increase from 2024 due to higher mining costs related to more material moved as we execute the planned accelerated stripping program and higher milling costs as we implement the mill improvement projects this year, offset by higher copper production.

Our capital expenditures guidance is shown on Slide 12. In 2024, total capital spending was $10 million lower than guidance of $360 million as lower growth capital and certain sustaining capital deferrals were partially offset by higher sustaining capital. In British Columbia for 2025, total capital expenditures are expected to be $580 million. This increase reflects higher growth capital spending as we reinvest in several high return growth projects as well as higher sustaining capital at the operations including some that was deferred from 2024.

Peru's 2025 sustaining capital expenditures are expected to be $170 million with higher capitalized stripping and required mine equipment purchases along with some capital deferrals from 2024. Growth capital of $25 million in Peru is related to the installation of the pebble crusher to increase mill throughput starting in 2026 and other mill optimization initiatives.

Manitoba's 2025 sustaining capital expenditures are expected to increase to $60 million, primarily the result of additional underground capitalized development costs. We also plan to spend $15 million of growth capital in 2025 for the exploration and haulage drifts at the 1901 deposit, and a portion of the cost has been funded by a premium flow-through financing that was completed in the fourth quarter.

In British Columbia, 2025 sustaining capital is expected to remain consistent with 2024 at $50 million for mine and mill equipment capital and we expect to spend $85 million on capitalized stripping costs related to the continued accelerated.

Growth capital at Copper Mountain is expected to be $75 million in 2025 including $55 million for the conversion of the third ball mill to secondary SAG mill to increase throughput rates starting in the second half of 2025 and ramping up to 50,000 tonnes per day in 2026.

At Copper World in Arizona we anticipate spending a total of $90 million in growth capital in 2025. This includes $25 million of typical annual holding costs and roughly $65 million related to de-risking activities and definitive feasibility studies to advance the project towards a sanctioning decision in 2026. 2025 exploration expenditures are expected to total $40 million in line with 2024 exploration spending as we continue to execute a multi-year extensive geophysics and drilling program in Snow Lake to extend mine life and explore for new discoveries. A portion of the Snow Lake exploration program has been funded by Premium Critical Minerals flow-through financing.

Moving to slide 13, Hudbay has a proven track record of prudently allocating capital to generate the highest risk-adjusted returns as we execute our growth strategy and advance our world-class asset portfolio. As an example of this success, we completed a post-project review of our capital investment in the New Britannia mill refurbishment project. We acquired the New Britannia mill in 2015 for $12 million to potentially process high-grade Lalor gold ores and allow us to achieve higher gold recoveries of approximately 90%. The refurbishment project construction had an initial capital cost of $115 million and an estimated IRR of 19% at the time of project sanction in early 2020. The initial investment was funded by a $115 million low-cost gold prepay facility. The project construction was completed on time with mill ramp-up and commissioning achieved in late 2021.

The mill was refurbished with a nameplate design capacity of 1,500 tons per day and has been consistently exceeding performance expectations, reaching record throughput levels of over 2,000 tonnes per day in 2024. Project Payback was achieved after 2.5 years and in August we completed the final payment under the gold prepay facility increasing our exposure to the current high gold price environment.

After three years in operations, it is estimated that the IRR for the New Britannia refurbishment project has increased to a remarkable 36% after adjusting for higher production rates, stronger gold prices and higher capital and operating costs. In 2024 we received a permit to increase the production rate at New Britannia to 2,500 tonnes per day. With over 2 million ounces of contained gold in current reserves and another 1.4 million ounces of gold in inferred resources, the New Britannia investment has the potential to generate even higher returns that could be further enhanced by regional exploration upside and the current strong gold price environment. We expect to replicate this success through our disciplined capital allocation approach when reinvesting in brownfield growth projects such as our mill throughput improvement projects in British Columbia and Peru.

We expect to generate attractive returns and unlock significant value through our Copper World project which is shown on slide 14.

Copper World is the most advanced greenfield project in our portfolio and offers significant copper exposure and highly attractive project economics. Copper World is a standalone operation requiring state and local permits and is expected to produce 85,000 tons of copper per year over the initial 20 year mine life. In the first phase, the project generates an NPV of $1.1 billion and an after tax IRR of 19%. At a copper price of $3.75 per pound, Copper World is one of the highest grade open pit copper projects in the Americas with mineral reserves of 385 million tons at 0.54% copper as shown on slide 15. Copper World is expected to be the fourth largest copper producer in the United States and its cost base compares favorably to current operating mines.

Once in production, Copper World is expected to be a meaningful copper producer in the U.S. domestic supply chain. The made in America copper cathode anticipated to be produced is expected to be sold entirely to domestic U.S. customers.

Turning to slide 16, we have recently obtained all key permits needed for the development and operation of Copper World. This includes the aquifer protection permit which was received in August and the air quality permit which was received in early January. With Copper World now fully permitted and with our transformed balance sheet and significantly improved financial flexibility, we are well positioned to prudently advance Copper World in accordance with our 3P plan. Once in production, Copper World is expected to increase our consolidated copper production by more than 50% from current levels. Our focus in 2025 will be on advancing feasibility studies with completion expected in the first half of 2026. Now that the permits have been received, we have commenced a minority joint venture partner process. We have also expanded our team in the United States to build bench strength and to establish key leadership roles.

This includes the recent hiring of a highly qualified project director and a seasoned mining law expert, both of whom are significant assets. As we advance Copper World towards a sanctioning decision in 2026.

We have several exploration opportunities as part of our long-term growth pipeline, including many high-priority exploration targets in Snow Lake. As noted on slide 17, in 2024 we began the largest exploration program in the company's history in Snow Lake with the goal of extending known mineralization near the Lalor deposit to further extend mine life as well as to find a new anchor deposit within trucking distance of the Snow Lake processing infrastructure. To follow on this in 2025 we will be completing the largest geophysics program in Hudbay's history with plans to complete 800 km of ground electromagnetic surveys and an extensive airborne geophysics survey at Lalor Northwest. Follow-up drilling in the second half of 2024 confirmed the potential for a new gold-copper discovery located approximately 400 meters from the existing Lalor underground infrastructure.

Several new intersections have helped establish the geometry of this new discovery and we plan to continue to drill Lalor Northwest in 2025 at the regional Rail property which was acquired through the Rockcliffe acquisition in 2023. The 2024 program yielded new intersections of high grade copper gold mineralization. These results will be combined with historical drilling results to update the geological model and assess its economic potential. Recent step out drilling at the 1901 deposit from the underground exploration drift targeted down plunge extensions of the ore body. All five holes that were drilled beyond the known extent of the mineralization have intersected visible copper gold mineralization extensions. Additional drilling at 1901 is expected in 2025 to confirm and potentially extend the ore body geometry and to convert inferred mineral resources in the gold lenses to mineral reserves.

One of the recent geophysical targets is a very strong deep anomaly located at Cook Lake North approximately 6 km from Lalor. Drilling at the Cook Lake North property is continuing throughout the winter season.

We are pleased to have signed our first ever exploration agreement with the Kichiwapa Cree Nation, reflecting our commitment to meaningful collaboration as we explore for new mineral resources in the Snow Lake and Flin Flon regions. Additionally, in Flin Flon we continue to advance tailings reprocessing studies to recover critical minerals and precious metals while creating environmental and social benefits for the region.

An early economic study on the zinc plant tailings reprocessing opportunity has confirmed the potential for a technically viable reprocessing alternative, so we have further engineering work underway in Peru. Our exploration activities surrounding the Maria Reina and Caballito properties near Constancia continue to focus on permitting and drill preparation as part of the drill permitting process. Environmental impact assessment applications were approved by the government in June 2024 for Maria Reina and in September 2024 for Caballito. We anticipate the drill permitting process to be completed in 2025, at which point we will initiate an extensive 18-month drill program.

Concluding on slide 18, Hudbay is set up for another highly successful year in 2025. Core to our 2025 objectives is the continued focus on operating safely and sustainably, aligning with our purpose to ensure that the company's activities have a positive impact on our people, communities and the planet. We believe that copper has highly robust long term supply and demand fundamentals as global copper mine supply will be unable to meet growing copper demands. Hudbay's leading copper development and exploration pipeline and low cost stable operating platform in Tier one jurisdictions are offers investors meaningful copper exposure, complementary gold exposure and continued strong near term free cash flow generation. This together with our resilient balance sheet provides significant upside potential for additional value creation as we prudently advance our many high return copper growth opportunities, and with that we are pleased to take your questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you ladies and gentlemen. We will now begin the question and answer session. To join the question queue you may press stars and 1. On your telephone keypad you will hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Today's first question comes from Orest Wowkodaw with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Orest Wowkodaw (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Hi, good morning.

Curious if we can get some more?

Color on your 2025 production guidance in Peru. It's been meaningfully reduced from the 25 guide you put out in March of last year. Can you give us some color in terms of what's driving that reduction? I assume it's Pampacancha, but what exactly are you seeing there and are there any implications to 2026?

Peter Kukielski (President and CEO)

Morning, Orest. No, thank you. Thanks for the question.

As we mentioned with our last quarter results, we've been experiencing more mining dilution and ore losses than planned in one of the high grade areas at Pampacancha and we've since investigated quite a bit further. Our guidance for 2025 includes conservative resource to reserve conversion factors tested by very thorough reconciliation work in the 2024 results. Now, so this is certainly limited as you suggested, to 2022 Pampacancha and specifically in 2025 only on the gold production side, we accelerated some high grade benches from 2025 into 2024 which resulted in 2024 gold production exceeding the top end of guidance levels, and then in addition 2025 copper production is expected to be slightly lower than 2024. Since Pampacancha is contributing ore feed, approximately 25% of the ore feed in 2025 will be from Pampacancha compared to approximately one-third in 2024.

That's really.

What the primary factors are. I'd also add, even though you've not asked it, that I kind of watched the market's reaction today to our results and frankly I'm pretty surprised because 2024 was an outstanding year and 2025 will be another strong year of delivery with stable production, stable costs, outstanding margins. So perhaps it's just a bad day in the market.

But I think it's been driven by what we've described in Peru, specifically at Pampacancha. Andre, would you add anything?

Andre Lauzon (COO)

So what I would say just to build on what you said is. So when we went into Q4, as we started recognizing some of the challenges in the model, we signaled being towards the low end of guidance last year and we delivered that with the updated model. We since revised the models to build and forecast into 2025. And so now we're anticipating being at the midpoint. It's not like last year. So this is a really prudent forecast going forward. And you know, there may be a little upside on that as well.

Peter Kukielski (President and CEO)

Yeah, I'd add or. Sorry, carry on please.

Orest Wowkodaw (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

I was going to say just.

Thanks for the color, but I'm curious.

On what the blended average grade for copper may be now at Constancia in 2025, given the revisions?

Andre Lauzon (COO)

The blended average grade over 25 is above 0.3133 in that range.

Orest Wowkodaw (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Thanks.

Peter, I do share your feelings.

In terms of the overreaction on the share price today, but clearly the guidance cut for 2025 is negative.

Peter Kukielski (President and CEO)

Thanks for that, Orest. I'd also stress that Constancia is the 90,000 ton per year copper mine with extremely attractive costs and it carries on at this level at least through the end of the decade. And after that there's massive upside offered by our exploration satellites within trucking distance of Constancia. So we remain very excited about the asset.

Andre Lauzon (COO)

if we were to build for the future is. The forecast for next year and incorporated in the guidance we just discussed were some subtleties in the model for Pampacancha. I'd say that the cost structure for Peru is year on year. We've been able to hold it flat almost the same and with no increases. That strong cost performance and production performance will carry forward post Pampacancha into the future.

Orest Wowkodaw (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Thanks for the color.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And our next question comes from Lawson Winder with Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.

Lawson Winder (Wall Street Analyst)

Yeah, thank you very much, operator. Good morning, Peter and team. I wanted to.

Ask about the Copper World minority interest process and get an idea from you what kind of interest you're seeing. Is it corporate strategics more, is it potentially financial investors, sovereign wealth funds, or is it more of the traditional type of partners that we've seen with off-takers?

And then.

In terms of early indications, what do the numbers look like? And then finally, so you started the process, what is the expected timing and completion of the sale process?

Thank you.

Peter Kukielski (President and CEO)

Morning, Lawson.

Thank you for that question.

So, you know, the very simple answer to your question is all of the above. We've had very, very strong interest from, as you put it, the traditional investors, so trading houses and the like. But you know, we visited with several.

Middle Eastern potential partners later last year. We had very, very strong interest from the Middle East. We've also had very, very strong interest from strategics.

On top of that we've had some interest also from some financial advisors. I would say the interest has been extremely strong. We expect it to be a very competitive process.

To your question with respect to timeline, we think it'll take of the order of four to six months to complete.

Lawson Winder (Wall Street Analyst)

Okay, great.

And then the other thing that would be helpful to get a bit of an idea for would be sort of an ex-growth CapEx run rate.

When you think about the.

Four.

Key assets or operating regions of the business, if we were to just put a FX number in our model each year like an average for the next 10 years and of course at current pricing at 2020 by pricing level, what's kind of a good run rate?

Andre Lauzon (COO)

Good morning, Lawson. So our sustaining capital guidance for this year is approximately $365 million. It's a little higher than last year. That includes a lot of stripping in BC. The sustained capital in Manitoba is in that $50 to $60 million range per annum. Peru ranges between about $130 to $170 million per year depending if it's a tailings dam raise and then BC's in that kind of $50 million range. So you know, we add all those numbers up that that's kind of in the $250 to $300 million range on an annual basis.

Lawson Winder (Wall Street Analyst)

Okay, that's great. Thank you both for those responses. Very helpful.

Operator (participant)

Thank you.

Our next question today comes from Dalton Barreto with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Dalton Baretto (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Thanks.

Good morning, Peter and team. Peter, I want to start by asking a couple of longer-term questions, if you will. You mentioned that, you know, Constancia is pretty robust until the end of the decade, based on the mine life. I think the copper grades do drop off fairly significantly after that. If you start drilling the satellites this year, do you think Caballito maybe would be ready for production by then?

Peter Kukielski (President and CEO)

Morning, Lawson.

You know, so what I would say is first of all we, as.

I said during the, I've said in the past, we combined the permitting processes for Caballito and Maria Reina. So we'll obtain permitting for both of them at the same time and then we'll decide exactly what the process of or the sequence of our drilling will be. It's going to be an 18-month drilling program. So once we have completed that drilling program, we'll have a better idea of exactly what the high grade satellites or they will be talking about are going to be, will be targeted. I imagine that, you know, we'll have a roughly similar timeline associated with permitting for those operations. So it's unlikely that we would be in production before early 2030s.

But I would say that, you know.

With the type of production and.

The levels of production that we have moving forward now, as well as potential expansion of mill infrastructure to offset declining grades, you know, we will have a very clear line of sight to what those satellites will bring if there is a gap of a year or two between.

What we're talking about. So it's very difficult for me to say today with any sense of certainty whether we would bring a Caballito or a Maria Reina satellite into production by 2030. But I would say around about then in the next couple of years or something like that. But there will always be a very clear line of sight to it which I think would address any market concerns. But not only that, by then we'll have Copper World in production as well. So we'll already have added another 50% to our production portfolio.

Dalton Baretto (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Thanks for that, Peter.

Andre Lauzon (COO)

So I just wanted to add something, Dalton. There is. So with. So one of the things that we're going through this year is we're renewing some of our permits in Peru and looking for some expansion in anticipation of the Caballito and Maria Reina deposits. Although like Peter said, the timeline is going to be tight around 2030. With successful exploration there will be likely permitted in 2028 or so to be able to increase throughput to a much higher level that we can accelerate Constancia and bridge that gap. So we've been working on plans to mitigate those lower grade future years. And if we get Maria Reina and Caballito sooner, even better. So we'll be permitted to go at a high level of production with that super high grade.

But if it does slide a little bit, we have the opportunity to accelerate Constancia and produce more metal.

Dalton Baretto (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Got it.

Thanks for that, Andre. And then maybe switching gears to Manitoba. The Canadian dollar has been hammered. Just wondering how much exposure the Manitoba business has to the Canadian dollar and what you're doing to sort of lock in these rates.

Thanks.

Eugene Lee (Director)

Good morning, Dalton.

Yeah, we're.

We budgeted conservatively for 135 copper. Obviously that was, you know, today's spot price is slightly higher than that. A 10% change in the Canadian U.S. exchange rate is about a $60 million.

Impact on cash flow and EBITDA, and so it's a pretty significant increase in cash flows and that affects both the P&C business and the Manitoba business.

Dalton Baretto (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Got it. Thanks, Eugene. And if I can just squeeze one last one in, your balance sheet's in very good shape right now. You're still more than a year away from sanctioning Copper World. Just given the movement in the shares today and your valuation, any thought on maybe buying back some shares?

We're with Dalton again. We're, you know, we're in an enviable position. With our balance sheet having lowered our leverage a full turn over the course of 2024, we have some bonds that are more than a year away from being due. We're always looking at opportunities to.

Allocate capital, so the highest risk-adjusted returns, and you'll see in our capital forecast this year that we have some investments in our business that we think are high return businesses. The past practices that we've embarked on, including New Britannia, were over 35% return projects, and as we look at.

Dividends and share buybacks, we'll always be evaluated against those internal projects. But as Peter mentioned, we are a bit surprised with the overreaction today in the share price. So it's always something we consider actively as we allocate capital.

Thanks very much, guys.

Operator (participant)

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Anita Soni with CIBC World Markets. Please go ahead.

Anita Soni (Managing Director)

Good morning, Peter, Eugene, and Andre. So a question for Andre on the dilution and ore losses. Could you give some color on what you think the source of the issue there is? I'm just wondering if it was a geostatistical model or is it something that's happening from the mining side of the operation?

Peter Kukielski (President and CEO)

Yeah, thanks for the question. So as we are going through, actually with all of our operations, we're continually updating our models. It's something that we do every quarter and in all cases monthly. Looking at reconciliation factors, in this case here, it does appear to be more geostatistical because it didn't affect the gold. Like, we had positive reconciliation on the gold and there was just slight more variability on the copper. But those were corrected and like, we projected in the fourth quarter and we updated with our models in the fourth quarter.

So.

So those are all the best estimates that we have going forward into 2025.

We're very confident that in achieving the midpoint or better.

Anita Soni (Managing Director)

I mean, what did you use for your geostatistics? ID 3 and ordinary kriging or ID 2.

Peter Kukielski (President and CEO)

All of our models are ordinary creek.

Anita Soni (Managing Director)

Just ordinary kriged. Okay, and then how much of the. So what was the cutting factor that you used for the 2025? And how many tons did that impact in 2025?

Peter Kukielski (President and CEO)

Say that again.

Sorry, can you repeat that in?

Anita Soni (Managing Director)

Yeah, you reduced. You reduced the grade in 2025. So I'm just trying to get an understanding of how much. How much in terms of tonnage was impacted by the grade, the reduction in grade. And what did you, like, how, how much did you reduce it by, like, what was the factor? Like 10% or 15% or so?

Peter Kukielski (President and CEO)

We could.

We could probably take it offline. It's pretty detailed, but what I'd say is it's very focused to Pampacancha. Pampacancha is only about a third of the production, and what we have right now is a resource model that has a lot of information with blast holes and new information that makes it. It's the best model going forward, so it's not a cutting.

It's.

We have a lot more information now.

Anita Soni (Managing Director)

My last question would be how much of the Pampacancha ore would have been in 2026 then?

Peter Kukielski (President and CEO)

Zero.

There's no.

Andre Lauzon (COO)

Our Pampacancha is done in 2026. Yeah, we're done this year. Okay.

Anita Soni (Managing Director)

All right, that's it for my question. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Farooq Hamed with Raymond James, please. Go ahead.

Farooq Hamed (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you, operator. And good morning, everyone. So just a couple of questions, you know, from the presentation here, the first one just on Copper World. Peter, in your slide there, you talk about, you know, a made in America strategy producing copper cathode. I just wanted to revisit that because I know in the past there's been some discussion about whether you actually end up going all the way and making the cathode or whether you just produce a concentrate. And I think that there was a CapEx trade off related to that decision. So have you now committed that you're going to kind of go down the path of producing cathode in country or is that still something that's up for debate?

Andre Lauzon (COO)

Morning, Farooq. So very easy answer to your question. Yeah, we're committed to it. It's, you know, it is certainly a key component of pre-feasibility study and it will be a key component of the feasibility study going forward. We think that the opportunity to produce made in the United States copper cathode is, is very, very attractive, especially given some of the geopolitical disconnects that we're seeing in the environment now. And I think is very, very supportive of building our business in the United States. I mean of course we'll, you know, we'll, we'll take a hard look at the technologies that we're going to use but we still planning to the Albion Process. But remember that it's a project that's funded out of cash flow in approximately year four while we're operating.

Farooq Hamed (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, thanks for that. Maybe just earlier in the conference call you made a reference to the Manitoba running above permitted capacity and there was an allowance from the government. Can you provide some more detail on the allowance from the government and how long you expect that to persist?

Andre Lauzon (COO)

So far I think that you're mixing up Peru and Manitoba. It's Peru where we have an allowance from the government to exceed production permitted capacity by 10%. The answer on the Manitoba side is we received a permit to increase production at New Britannia to 2,500 tonnes per day. And you know, as we mentioned in the materials we've been producing at over 22,000 tonnes per day in the last quarter.

Farooq Hamed (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, thanks for that clarification. Yeah, I think I misheard you on that one. And then just the last one there, just a question related to Dalton's question on, you know, potential buyback. You know, part of the reason why your balance sheet has strengthened is related to the equity issuance that you did earlier in 2024. So I'm just wondering at this point, you know, and I imagine that part of strengthening the balance sheet was to get ready for Copper World. So at this point is it safe to assume that, you know, kind of a share buyback would kind of be off the table given part of the raise was to get ready for Copper World coming potentially in 2026 or starting the construction in 2026.

Andre Lauzon (COO)

I'll let Eugene give you a broader answer to it, but in essence it is unlikely that we would do a share buyback in the wake of issuing equity. Eugene, anything you would add to that?

Eugene Lee (Director)

It's part of a broader strategy. The equity issue was to prefund the stabilization optimization work in British Columbia and that's underway. That's going to be spent this year in 2025 and also put the balance sheet in a position to potentially sanction the copper project in the first half of 2026. And I think we're really well on track on that. You know, we always look at opportunities both internally and externally to generate returns for our shareholders. And we will continue to monitor the situation. But as Peter mentioned, we're, it's not, we don't take this lightly in a kind of a one quarter decision. This is, we're building a resilient balance sheet to be able to reinvest and generate superior returns over a sustainable time for our shareholders. And you know, we're on a really good pathway to do that.

I think we have the lowest leverage among our peers. We've reduced debt permanently in our capital structure and we have a lot of financial flexibility going forward in terms of the refi of the bonds and the sanction of Copper World in the context of all the capital allocation opportunities that.

Peter Kukielski (President and CEO)

We have in terms with the goal.

Of ultimately being stable big dividend payers.

Pierre Vaillancourt (Senior Analyst)

Correct.

Farooq Hamed (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, thanks guys.

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

And our next question comes from Pierre Vaillancourt with Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

Pierre Vaillancourt (Senior Analyst)

Thanks. I was wondering if you could elaborate on the tax expense this quarter and what implications are for future quarters?

Andre Lauzon (COO)

Hi Pierre.

Yes, there was an elevated tax expense in 2024 due to the differences in mining tax versus income tax. And you know, particularly given the strong production in Peru and the higher gold price as well as that strong production in Manitoba. So it was elevated in 2024. It will likely remain elevated in 2025 as these prices prevail but normalizes as Pampacancha is exhausted in Peru.

As we've exhausted our pools in Peru as of a year ago.

Pierre Vaillancourt (Senior Analyst)

Okay, thanks. Also, if I may, wondering if you can give us a sense, you know, with Pampacancha.

Finishing this year, the longer term profile for Constancia in general is in the context of the mill expansion. So it's going to, I mean it's down relative to what guidance was previously and it'll probably go down again in 2026.

How does that?

Where do you achieve steady state in the context of a planned mill expansion? You know, until of course, Caballito or Maria Reina. Come on.

Andre Lauzon (COO)

Sure. It's Andre.

It's a.

That's a pretty layered question.

We're going to give a lot more clarity on the future years guidance coming up.

In March with our reserve and resource declaration. We'll be able to give you a lot more color on that coming up. There are a sequence of production improvements that we're doing like right now we're doing, you know, and it's not really baked into the guidance or budget. We're doing pebble rejection successfully right now. We're seeing some improvements in grade and throughput. We're planning to implement towards the end of this year pebble crushers. We don't know. We might see some production this year, but it's probably going to. The benefits will go into 2026 and depending on the combined of those, we may expand that as well. Because right now we're planning only to install one pebble crusher but we have the opportunity and the permits will be.

In place to put up the four.

And so there's all of those baked in. And then, like I mentioned earlier about mod4 permit update, that's going to be a significant production increase that could happen after 2028. And so we'll signal some of that, like you say, all of that in.

The three-year guidance coming up in March.

Pierre Vaillancourt (Senior Analyst)

But is that going to be, you know, that double rejection? I mean, is that significant enough to matter? Do you think like it does?

Andre Lauzon (COO)

One of the challenges is the hardness. It's not every day that, you know, when we have good throughput as we're seeing, but some days, and our permit is on an annual basis, and so we're seeing days up as high as 100,000 tons per day. The 10% improvement that we're talking about is about a 94,000 ton per day over a permitted level. We're seeing, you know, some significant improvements as we're going through this, and we're in what we believe to be relatively hard ore. We're quite pleased with the work that the team's doing. They're continually making improvements in the mill and improving recovery. We're going to bake some of those into the guidance, and as we get further improvements, it will get better than what you see over time.

Pierre Vaillancourt (Senior Analyst)

But is it safe to assume the grade at Constancia will be maintained or is there any?

Andre Lauzon (COO)

The grade does improve with pebble rejection. Generally the pebbles are hard and lower grade. We do see a slight improvement in grade as that goes through as well, too, but it's too early to quantify it.

Pierre Vaillancourt (Senior Analyst)

Okay, thanks, Andre.

Peter Kukielski (President and CEO)

Thanks, Eugene.

Andre Lauzon (COO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Stefan Ioannou with Cormark Securities. Please go ahead.

Stefan Ioannou (Mining Analyst)

Yeah, thanks very much.

Just curious if you could just maybe?

Comment on the strategy of the recent.

Arizona Sonoran investment, how that kind of fits into the plan going forward in the portfolio?

Peter Kukielski (President and CEO)

Hi, Stefan. How are you? Thanks very much for the question. I think that, you know, we manage a portfolio of junior mining company investments, and we've done that for several years, and we look for investment opportunities that fit our strategic criteria. So, you know, we all know that copper is scarce, and we're always looking for ways to prudently increase our copper exposure. Now, Arizona Sonoran has a copper project in Arizona, which is, of course, an important region for us with our Copper World project located in Southern Arizona. So the strategic investment in Arizona Sonoran increases our copper exposure in what we consider to be a top mining jurisdiction. It provides them with some funding to de-risk their project, and it supports further copper mining in Arizona.

You know, we as shareholders together with Rio Tinto, we like the team, we like their asset. It's just something that we've tucked into the portfolio.

Stefan Ioannou (Mining Analyst)

Okay, great.

That's helpful. Thanks very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time, so I'd like to conclude the question and answer session and turn the conference back over to Candace Brûlé for any closing remarks.

Candace Brûlé (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, operator. And thank you everyone for joining us today. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out to our investor relations team. Thank you and have a great day.

Operator (participant)

Thank you.

This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.