Executive Summary

Q1 2025 results reflected severe price compression but solid execution: revenue $299.9M, Adj. EBITDA $39.5M (13.2% margin), and GAAP EPS of -$0.16 as PLV index fell ~40% YoY; volumes rose modestly and cash cost/ton improved to $112.35 on variable cost relief and tight spending .
Results were better than conservative Street expectations: revenue beat ($299.9M vs $284.6M*), EPS beat (-$0.16 vs -$0.23*), and Adj. EBITDA beat ($39.5M vs $32.2M*), aided by stronger shipments and lower variable royalties/transport costs (estimate values from S&P Global) .
2025 guidance was maintained across production, sales, cost, and capex; management cited tariff/trade uncertainty and will update outlook with Q2 earnings. A regular $0.08 quarterly dividend was declared (paid May 12) .
Strategic catalyst: Blue Creek hit early milestones (prep plant Module A completed, first trains loaded) with initial shipments in Q2 and longwall start no later than Q2 2026; total project spend reached ~$772M, on budget and fully funded by internal cash flows .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Cost outperformance: cash cost of sales per ton fell to $112.35 (vs $133.48 LY) and below the low end of FY guide range due to lower royalties/transport and disciplined spending; CFO expects similar levels near term if prices stay here .
Operational execution: 2% YoY sales volume growth to 2.17M ST and 10% production increase to 2.25M ST including 251k ST from Blue Creek development units; positive operating cash flow of $10.9M despite weak pricing .
Blue Creek milestones: “completed the A module of the preparation plant,” “started washing coal,” and “began loading first trains,” with initial shipments expected in Q2; project on schedule/budget with liquidity to complete .

Quote (CEO): “We were able to… deliver an increase in volume and strong cost performance… enabling us to maintain positive cash margins… [and] make excellent progress at Blue Creek” .

What Went Wrong

Pricing/realizations: average net selling price dropped 41.9% to $135.79/ton; gross realization of ~83% of PLV was below the 85–90% long-term target on mix/geography/tariff/freight spreads .
Profitability compression: Adj. EBITDA fell to $39.5M (13.2% margin) from $200.2M (39.8%) LY; GAAP EPS was -$0.16 vs $2.62 LY, primarily on the ~40% lower benchmark and widened spreads .
FCF pressure and working capital build: FCF -$68.4M on $79.3M capex+development; net working capital ex-cash rose $31.8M QoQ, with management flagging further build before Blue Creek sales unwind in 2H .

Financial Results

P&L vs prior periods (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)	$327.7	$297.5	$299.9
GAAP Diluted EPS	$0.80	$0.02	-$0.16
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$78.5	$53.2	$39.5
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	24.0%	17.9%	13.2%
Average Net Selling Price ($/ST)	$171.92	$154.54	$135.79
Cash Cost of Sales per Ton ($/ST, FOB port)	$123.45	$119.55	$112.35
Tons Sold (k ST)	1,861	1,887	2,172
Tons Produced (k ST)	1,917	2,108	2,254

Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus (beats in bold)

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Surprise
Revenue ($M)	$284.6*	$299.9	+$15.3M
GAAP EPS	-$0.23*	-$0.16	+$0.07
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$32.2*	$39.5	+$7.3M

Values with asterisks (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and Cash Flow (oldest → newest)

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Cash Margin per Ton ($/ST)	$48.47	$34.99	$23.44
Adj. EBITDA per Ton ($/ST)	$42.18	$28.20	$18.18
Cash from Operations ($M)	$62.2	$54.2	$10.9
Capex + Mine Development ($M)	$122.8	$142.2	$79.3
Free Cash Flow ($M)	-$60.6	-$88.0	-$68.4
Total Liquidity ($M)	$746.4	$654.7	$616.6
Cash & Equivalents ($M)	$583.2	$491.5	$454.9
Blue Creek Dev Tons (k ST)	39	170 (in Q4)	251

Guidance Changes

Warrior maintained its full-year 2025 guidance; no changes vs Q4 2024.

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Feb 2025)	Current Guidance (Apr 2025)	Change
Coal sales	FY 2025	8.2–9.0M ST	8.2–9.0M ST	Maintained
Coal production	FY 2025	7.8–8.6M ST	7.8–8.6M ST	Maintained
Cash cost of sales (FOB port)	FY 2025	$117–$127/ST	$117–$127/ST	Maintained
Sustaining capex (existing mines)	FY 2025	$90–$100M	$90–$100M	Maintained
Blue Creek capex	FY 2025	$225–$250M	$225–$250M	Maintained
Blue Creek mine development	FY 2025	$95–$110M	$95–$110M	Maintained
D&D	FY 2025	$185–$210M	$185–$210M	Maintained
SG&A	FY 2025	$65–$75M	$65–$75M	Maintained
Interest expense	FY 2025	$4–$6M	$4–$6M	Maintained
Interest income	FY 2025	$10–$15M	$10–$15M	Maintained
Income tax rate	FY 2025	10%–15%	10%–15%	Maintained
Dividend (regular quarterly)	Ongoing	$0.08/sh (declared Feb 11)	$0.08/sh (declared Apr 23)	Maintained

Notes/caveats management flagged: one longwall move in Q2 and two in Q3; tariff/trade policy uncertainty may affect realizations and freight; guidance will be revisited with Q2 results .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024 and Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Price environment & realizations	Q3: prices at 3-year lows; Q4: PLV avg $184/ST; realization ~86% 4Q/89% FY; Asia mix rising .	PLV avg ~$168/ST; realization ~83% on mix/geography/tariffs/freight; spreads widened .	Worsened vs 4Q; still under pressure
Regional demand/mix	Q4 sales mix: Asia 38%, Europe 36%, S. America 25%; China included in Q4 mix .	Q1: Asia 43%, Europe 37%, S. America 20%; no China sales in Q1 .	Shift toward Asia; China exposure reduced
Tariffs/trade	Q4: warned tariff/trade measures could weigh on pricing .	China retaliatory tariffs halted U.S. coal trade; management monitoring; longwall shields not impacted by tariffs .	Heightened uncertainty
Cost structure	Q4 cash cost/ton $119.55; guide $117–$127/ST based on PLV ~$200 metric .	Q1 cash cost/ton $112.35; could sustain near term if prices stable; variable royalties/transport drive deltas .	Improving due to lower variable costs
Blue Creek execution	Q3: first dev tons (39k) and infra progress ; Q4: 3 CM units, 209k in 2024; prep plant mid-2025 .	Q1: Module A done, washing coal, first trains loaded; shipments begin Q2; longwall startup no later than Q2 2026 .	Ahead of near-term milestones
Working capital/inventory	Q4: inventory up to 1.1M ST; expected WC build in 2025 before sales .	Q1: WC ex-cash up $31.8M QoQ; expect build through early Q3 then unwind with H2 sales .	Building now; unwind 2H
Labor contract	Q4: no agreement yet with UMWA .	No incremental update in Q1 prepared remarks; still a factor in key outlook risks .	Unchanged risk factor

Management Commentary

Strategic posture: “We… delivered an increase in volume and strong cost performance… enabling us to maintain positive cash margins” despite “weak market conditions” .
Macro lens: “Broad economic uncertainty… seasonal demand weakness, and ample spot supply” are pressuring prices; focus is “protecting margins and cash flow” .
Blue Creek progress: “Completed the A module of the preparation plant… started washing coal… began loading our first trains… expect to begin shipping small amounts… in the second quarter ahead of schedule” .
Guidance philosophy: Guidance unchanged; inability to quantify tariff impacts yet; will update with Q2 call .

Q&A Highlights

Realizations: Expectation for 80–85% price realization is “reasonable” near term vs long-term 85–90% target given widened spreads .
Costs: Q1’s ~$112/ton cash cost could be sustainable near term if prices remain at current levels; cost moves with price via variable royalties/transport .
Tariffs on equipment: Blue Creek longwall shields will not incur 10% tariffs; delivery schedule avoids impacts .
Freight and Asia mix: Realization impacted by geography and freight; Asia CFR freight fell from $50–$55/t last year to mid-$30s but has ticked up with tariff noise .
Volumes cadence: No quarterly guide; 85% of FY volume contracted; quarter-to-quarter swings possible due to vessel timing .
Working capital: Expect WC build through Q2/early Q3, then improvement as Blue Creek sales commence in H2 .
Guidance assumption: FY 2025 cost guidance based on PLV ~~$200/metric ton (~~$185/ST) .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 comparison: Revenue $299.9M vs $284.6M consensus*, EPS -$0.16 vs -$0.23*, Adj. EBITDA $39.5M vs $32.2M* — all beats (values with asterisks from S&P Global) .
Near-term consensus backdrop: For Q2 2025, Street penciled revenue ~$285.6M* and EPS ~$-0.36*, implying continued weak pricing; management’s cost sensitivity to price suggests estimate risk skews to variable-cost assumptions and volumes .
Values with asterisks (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Pricing headwinds drove negative EPS, but HCC beat conservative Street estimates on revenue, EPS, and EBITDA via volume execution and variable-cost leverage .
FY guide unchanged; key swing factors are PLV price, widened spreads/realizations, tariffs/trade, and three scheduled longwall moves (1 in Q2, 2 in Q3) .
Blue Creek is de-risking with early plant/trains milestones and Q2 shipments; longwall start no later than Q2 2026, with ~$772M invested and liquidity sufficient to complete .
Expect working capital to remain a use of cash through early Q3, then improve as Blue Creek sales ramp; near-term FCF remains pressured by project capex .
Cost per ton likely stays near Q1 levels if prices remain subdued, but will rise with met coal prices due to variable royalties/transport; monitor freight and Asia mix impacts on realization .
Contracted volume (~85%) supports shipment stability; spot expected ~15% with greater Pacific Basin exposure, partially mitigating Atlantic weakness .
Dividend maintained at $0.08/sh; capital allocation remains balanced with Blue Creek funding and potential for enhanced returns post-completion .

References: Q1 2025 8-K/press release ; Q1 2025 press release ; Q1 2025 earnings call transcript ; Q4 2024 8-K and call ; Q3 2024 8-K ; Dividend press release . Values marked with asterisks (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary