Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered higher volumes but materially lower pricing; total revenue fell to $297.5M and GAAP diluted EPS to $0.02 as average net selling price dropped to $154.54/ton, while adjusted EPS was $0.15 and adjusted EBITDA $53.2M .
Mix shifted toward Mine 4 high-vol A and widened HV A-to-PLV relativities, reducing pretax income by ~$9M; non-cash items (Black Lung valuation +$7M, stock comp +$3M, gas hedge MTM +$2M) further weighed on results .
2025 guidance targets 8.2–9.0M tons sold, 7.8–8.6M tons produced, cash cost $117–$127/ton; Blue Creek expected to produce ~1.0M tons HV A in 2025 (second-half sales post prep plant startup) .
Capital allocation remains conservative with $0.08 regular dividend declared for March 3, 2025; liquidity at 12/31/24 was $654.7M (cash $491.5M; available ABL $113.5M) .
Near-term stock narrative centers on pricing pressure from excess Chinese steel exports and ample seaborne supply; medium-term catalyst is Blue Creek scale-up, with updated post-quarter disclosures increasing nameplate capacity to 6.0M tons and implying ~$735M incremental adjusted EBITDA at full run-rate .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

“We delivered a strong operational and financial performance despite high-quality steelmaking coal prices reaching the lowest levels since 2021,” with sales volumes up 23% YoY and production up 7% YoY in Q4; 2024 met/exceeded all guidance and produced first Blue Creek tons .
Blue Creek stayed on schedule/budget: three continuous miner units developing first longwall; 209K tons produced in 2024; longwall shields arriving; prep plant expected mid-2025; longwall startup no later than Q2 2026 .
Cash cost per ton improved sequentially versus Q3 and was at the low end of full-year guidance: $119.55/ton in Q4 vs $123.45/ton in Q3; SG&A and interest expense within ranges; effective tax rate ~12% for 2024 .

What Went Wrong

Pricing: average net selling price fell 34% YoY (to $154.54/ton), compressing adjusted EBITDA margin to 17.9% (Q4’23: 45.0%); cash margin per ton dropped to $34.99 (Q3: $48.47; Q4’23: $113.87) .
Mix and relativities: HV A-to-PLV realization was unusually wide; higher Mine 4 HV A mix lowered pretax by ~$9M; Asia spot CFR exposure remained meaningful (spot 17% in Q4), pressuring realizations .
Non-cash headwinds and lower other income: Black Lung valuation (+$7M), higher stock comp (+$3M), gas hedge MTM (+$2M) reduced pretax results; interest income lower on smaller balances and rates .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$396.5	$327.7	$297.5
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$1.35	$0.80	$0.02
Adjusted EPS ($)	$1.35	$0.80	$0.15
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$115.9	$78.5	$53.2
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	29.2%	24.0%	17.9%

YoY snapshot (Q4 2023 vs Q4 2024):

Metric	Q4 2023	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$363.8	$297.5
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$2.47	$0.02
Adjusted EPS ($)	$2.49	$0.15
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$163.7	$53.2
Avg Net Selling Price ($/ton)	$234.56	$154.54

KPIs and cost metrics:

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Tons Sold (000s)	2,098	1,861	1,887
Tons Produced (000s)	2,172	1,917	2,108
Avg Net Selling Price ($/ton)	$186.09	$171.92	$154.54
Cash Cost FOB Port ($/ton)	$123.78	$123.45	$119.55
Adjusted EBITDA per ton ($/ton)	$55.00	$42.18	$28.20

Cash flow and liquidity highlights (Q4 2024):

Metric	Q4 2024
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)	$54.2
Capex + Mine Development ($USD Millions)	$142.2
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	$(88.0)
Liquidity ($USD Millions)	$654.7
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)	$491.5

Segment breakdown: Warrior does not present formal segments; operations primarily span Mine 7 (PLV) and Mine 4 (HV A) with mix shifts and geographic sales mix commentary provided in calls .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Coal sales (short tons)	FY 2025	N/A	8.2–9.0M	New
Coal production (short tons)	FY 2025	N/A	7.8–8.6M	New
Cash cost of sales FOB ($/ton)	FY 2025	N/A	$117–$127	New
Sustaining capex (existing mines)	FY 2025	N/A	$90–$100M	New
Blue Creek capex	FY 2025	N/A	$225–$250M	New
Blue Creek mine development	FY 2025	N/A	$95–$110M	New
Depreciation & depletion	FY 2025	N/A	$185–$210M	New
SG&A	FY 2025	N/A	$65–$75M	New
Interest expense	FY 2025	N/A	$4–$6M	New
Interest income	FY 2025	N/A	$10–$15M	New
Effective tax rate	FY 2025	N/A	10%–15%	New
Dividend	Next payment	$0.08 (regular)	$0.08 (regular; paid 3/3/25)	Maintained

Drivers noted: three longwall moves (Q2, two in Q3), pricing geo/freight, inflation, labor contract, and working capital impact from Blue Creek ramp .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3)	Current Period (Q4)	Trend
Pricing & demand	Steep price correction; PLV FOB ended Q2 at $212; CFR China $224; weak demand; HV A spread narrowed vs earlier; realization ~90%	Prices at lowest since 2021; PLV FOB averaged $184; gross realization ~86%; HV A relativity widened in 2024	Continued pressure; realizations lower
Geography mix	Q3 sales: 44% Europe, 41% Asia, 15% South America; spot 23%	Q4: 38% Asia, 36% Europe, 25% South America; spot 17%	Asia share up; spot down
Blue Creek execution	Q2: seam access complete; first miner Q3; 2024 dev tons ~200K	Q4: three miner units; 209K tons in 2024; prep plant mid-2025; longwall by Q2 2026	On track; ramping
Costs	Q2 cash cost $123.78/ton; sensitivity to price via transport/royalty	Q4 cash cost $119.55/ton; guidance midpoint decline driven by lower prices	Sequential improvement; price-sensitive
Tariffs/macro	Caution on global demand; Europe/South America spot soft	Potential new tariffs/trade measures could pressure seaborne prices	Macro risk elevated
Labor contract	Not highlighted	Ongoing UMWA contract not yet resolved	Uncertain
Working capital/inventory	Inventories up slightly to 915K (Q3)	Inventories up to 1.1M; expect higher WC from Blue Creek in 2025	WC build near term
Realization guidance	85–90% full-year aspiration with caveats	HV A relativity was 79% in 2024; long-term ~95%; near-term lower end likely	Lower near term

Management Commentary

CEO: “We delivered a strong operational and financial performance despite high-quality steelmaking coal prices reaching the lowest levels since 2021… we met or exceeded all guidance targets… and produced the first tons from our world-class Blue Creek growth project.”
CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA margin was $28 per short ton in the fourth quarter… decreases were primarily driven by 34% lower average net selling prices, partially offset by 23% higher sales volume.”
CEO on Blue Creek: “We expect… preparation plant… mid-2025 and the longwall startup… no later than the second quarter of 2026.”
CFO on costs: “Most of the lower end of our guidance is going to be because of the lower met coal prices… driving down transportation and royalties.”

Q&A Highlights

Blue Creek contribution: ~1.0M tons planned production in 2025; shipments largely in 2H post prep plant; Mine 4 likely “over 2M tons” in 2025 .
Cost guidance sensitivity: Cash cost $117–$127/ton assumes PLV ~$200/short ton; lower prices reduce transportation and royalties .
Realization outlook: HV A relativity 79% in 2024 vs ~95% 10-yr avg; expect lower-end relativities near term; still target 85–90% over time .
Inventory and logistics: Inventory expected to normalize late 2025 as Blue Creek sales commence; overland belt, rail and port readiness on track .
Labor and capital structure: Contract negotiations ongoing; minimum cash balance likely to rise as company scales with Blue Creek .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q4 2024 and FY periods were unavailable due to request limit constraints during retrieval; therefore, explicit comparisons to Wall Street estimates are not provided in this recap [GetEstimates errors].

Key Takeaways for Investors

Pricing headwinds dominated Q4, but operational execution and cost discipline limited damage; volumes and cash costs trended favorably heading into 2025 .
Mix and relativities matter: elevated HV A share and unusually wide HV A-to-PLV spread hurt realizations; near-term realizations likely at lower end of historical range .
Blue Creek is the medium-term catalyst: ~1.0M tons HV A in 2025 (sales in 2H), longwall by Q2 2026; post-quarter update increased nameplate capacity to 6.0M tons with strong implied economics .
2025 guidance points to higher volumes and lower unit costs with PLV ~$200 assumption; watch pricing, longwall move timing, and WC build from Blue Creek ramp .
Capital allocation remains conservative (regular $0.08 dividend); liquidity supports completion of Blue Creek without added leverage; potential to reevaluate minimum cash buffer as scale increases .
Macro risks (tariffs, Chinese exports) could prolong pricing pressure; management expects persistence and is positioning via contracted volumes and selective spot activity .
Trading setup: sensitivity to PLV index moves and HV A relativities; positive catalysts include prep plant commissioning mid-2025 and any tightening in seaborne supply or decline in Chinese exports .

WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary