Hawaiian Electric Industries - Q2 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon, and thank you for attending today's second quarter 2023 Hawaiian Electric Industries earnings conference call. My name is Jason, and I'll be the moderator for today's call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portion of the call, with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to pass the conference over to our host, Mateo Garcia.

Mateo Garcia (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Jason. Welcome, everyone, to HEI's second quarter 2023 earnings call. Joining me today are Scott Seu, HEI President and CEO; Paul Ito, HEI CFO; Shelee Kimura, Hawaiian Electric President and CEO; Ann Teranishi, American Savings Bank President and CEO, and other members of senior management. Our earnings release and our presentation for this call are available in the investor relations section of our website. As a reminder, forward-looking statements will be made on today's call. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations can be found in our presentation, our SEC filings, and in the investor relations section of our website. Scott will begin with his remarks.

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

Aloha kākou. Greetings, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I'll give an overview of our results, update you on our businesses and the Hawaii economy, and then turn the call over to Paul to further discuss our financial results and guidance. Our combination of businesses continued to work well for us in the second quarter, as it has through many different business cycles and economic environments. Both operating companies delivered solid results in the quarter, and HEI generated net income of $54.6 million and earnings per share of $0.50, compared to $52.5 million and $0.48 in the same quarter last year. Despite the headwinds the bank sector has seen this year, ASB's low-risk community banking model and the utility's execution within our new performance-based regulation, or PBR framework, both contributed to our earnings this quarter.

Our utility grew net income to $45.3 million, and although there were elevated operations and maintenance expenses during the quarter, we expect this to moderate in the second half of the year, with full-year expenses expected to be within Annual Revenue Adjustment, or ARA, allowed levels. The utility has executed well on its capital plan this year, ensuring the reliability and resilience of our system as we continue to aggressively pursue our clean energy transition. The PBR framework continues to work well for us, and we've been pleased with the improved visibility and predictability the framework provides. Our bank grew net income to $20.2 million this quarter, despite industry-wide funding cost pressures impacting banking sector profitability. ASB's net interest margin compression in the quarter was relatively small compared to peers, and our primarily insured and mostly retail deposit base remains stable.

Credit quality remains excellent, supported by the continued stability of Hawaiʻi's economy. Overall, our bank remains very well-positioned to continue delivering value to our enterprise. I'm proud to say that ASB was recently named to Forbes' America's Best-In-State Banks list, the only bank in Hawaiʻi to receive this prestigious recognition this year. In addition, we recently received credit ratings upgrades at both the utility and HEI from Fitch. The upgrades were based on our utility's more predictable regulatory construct under PBR, management's ability to manage near-term renewable targets, and the bank's role as a low-risk, well-run institution providing stable dividends over time. Fitch also reaffirmed ASB's triple B rating with an outlook of stable. While ASB has been successful in maintaining deposit levels, we've seen a continuing shift to higher cost funding sources that is expected to persist for the remainder of the year.

Last quarter, we mentioned that we'd revisit bank guidance this quarter, given some of the trends we thought were likely to play out. As a result of continued funding cost pressures, we're revising guidance for the bank, which Paul will cover in more detail. Turning to the utility, we continue to advance our decarbonization initiatives while improving reliability, resilience, and affordability for our customers. Affordability has improved significantly since last year, with the average residential customer bill on Oʻahu down 17% from last year's peak in September. In late May, we filed our final Integrated Grid Plan, or IGP, which proposes a clear path forward to meeting our state's clean energy goals while prioritizing reliability and affordability. The proposed plan would require significant investment in our transmission and distribution systems, as well as new firm and variable renewable generation.

Our IGP is the result of industry-leading planning and analysis for a renewables-powered and highly distributed energy-reliant grid. The plan is the culmination of a robust stakeholder engagement effort over five years and includes a stakeholder-driven governance structure focused on technical, market, and social aspects. Our IGP is crucial to achieving our state's clean energy goals of net zero carbon emissions and 100% renewables by 2045. The utility is on track with milestones for the stage 3 renewable energy request for proposals, or RFP. For the Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi Island, and variable generation portion of Maui RFPs, the utility is currently evaluating best and final offers from the selected priority list and will announce the selection of the final award group in late October. Proposals for the firm generation portion of the Maui RFP are due on August 17, 2023.

The utility is bidding into the RFP, consistent with the reliability requirements under the competitive bid framework. The utility has submitted its best and final offer to provide firm renewable generation by repowering the Waiau Power Plant on Oʻahu. The proposed project would replace six aging fossil fuel-powered steam generators with smaller, more efficient, and fuel-flexible units. The proposed new units can provide firm renewable generation to back up the expanding portfolio of variable resources on Oʻahu's grid. The project has advanced to the selected priority list. My last highlight is that we're ahead of schedule on our system-wide smart meter deployment. We now have 285,000 smart meters deployed, serving about 60% of our customers. Advanced meters provide data and tools that help us operate our grid more efficiently, reliably, and affordably.

They'll help us get distributed energy resources, or DER, connected to our system faster, contribute to our efforts to achieve the DER Interconnection Performance Incentive Mechanism, or PIM, and enable time of use rates, which are currently in a pilot phase and will further contribute to customer affordability. Turning to the bank on Slide 4, ASB continues to be well-positioned compared to peers, despite the headwinds the sector has seen this year. We're performing well in a local banking market characterized by stability and customer loyalty. Our depositor base remains strong and stable, and 86% of deposits are FDIC-insured or fully collateralized. Total deposits at the end of the second quarter were essentially flat compared to deposits at year-end, down a modest 8 basis points. ASB remains a consistent contributor to earnings and cash flow, and during the quarter, paid HEI $11 million of dividends.

We continue to see positive trends in credit quality, evidence of the stability of our economy and financial health of our borrowers. Our high-quality loan book, most of which is Hawaiʻi real estate secured, saw a continuation of low delinquency rates and net charge-offs this quarter. ASB's capital position remains very strong, with excess liquidity of approximately 3 times the amount of uninsured or uncollateralized deposits. Turning to Slide 5, key indicators continue to point to a healthy Hawaiʻi economy. The University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization, which provides regular forecasts of our state's economy, is projecting growth in Hawaiʻi in 2023, driven by continued strength in tourism despite the delayed Japanese market recovery and strong public sector construction spending. Hawaiʻi's labor market has continued to strengthen throughout the year.

Our state's unemployment rate was 3.0% in June, an improvement from 3.1% in May and lower than the national average of 3.6%. Visitor arrivals have been hovering near pre-pandemic levels throughout 2023. In June, over 889,000 visitors arrived in Hawaiʻi, an increase of 5.5% from last year, and reaching 94% of June 2019 levels. International arrivals were up over 60% compared to June of last year and have nearly doubled year to date. Visitor spending remains robust, year-to-date June expenditures were up 17% compared to last year. Hawaiʻi's supply-constrained housing market continues to see prices near record levels. While sales volumes have been lower this year, given high mortgage rates, Oʻahu's median prices are still over $1 million.

Hawaiʻi's housing market is a key focus of our state's policymakers, and in July, Governor Green signed an Emergency Proclamation on housing. The proclamation aims to streamline the development process and empower developers and stakeholders to contribute to the creation of more housing opportunities across our state. I'll now hand the call over to Paul to further discuss our financial results and outlook.

Paul Ito (CFO)

Thank you, Scott. I'll start with our results for the quarter on Slide 6. Consolidated net income of $54.3 million, and EPS of $0.50 were up from $52.5 million, and EPS of $0.48 last year. The utility grew net income despite elevated O&M expenses during the quarter, some of which were due to timing. The bank grew net income amid a challenging interest rate environment that has pressured net interest margins across the industry. Our consolidated last twelve months ROE remains healthy at 10.2%, which is down slightly from 10.4% last year, due primarily to higher last twelve-month earnings in the prior year, due to a gain on sale recognized in the first quarter of 2022.

Utility ROE remains stable at 8.2%. Bank ROE on an annualized basis was up 400 basis points compared to the same quarter last year. On Slide 7, we show major variances across the enterprise compared to the second quarter of last year. Higher bank net income was primarily due to higher non-interest income from higher bank-owned life insurance income, a gain on sale of real estate and higher fee income, as well as a lower provision for credit losses and higher net interest income, primarily due to higher interest and fees on loans. These impacts were partially offset by higher non-interest expense, primarily due to higher compensation and benefits expenses and FDIC insurance premiums.

On the utility side, we saw higher ARA and MPIR revenues, higher fossil fuel cost risk-sharing revenues, higher AFUDC from increased CapEx, and higher revenues from a one-time true-up of billable costs related to our pole infrastructure. These are partially offset by higher O&M, primarily due to higher transmission and distribution expenses, higher outside services costs, increased labor and employee benefit costs, higher facilities expenses, and higher legal and other fees associated with environmental matters, partially offset by fewer overhauls performed in the quarter. The higher holding company and other segment net loss was primarily due to higher interest expense. Turning to Slide 8, year-to-date utility CapEx was $225 million, about $100 million higher than at this same time last year.

The utility is on track with the execution of their capital plan, with steps taken to mitigate supply chain challenges, including advanced planning for the availability of labor and material resources. For the full year, we expect to be in the top half of our $370 million-$410 million CapEx guidance range. On Slide 9, we show utility earnings drivers for the remainder of the year. The utility saw elevated O&M expenses in the second quarter. However, there were approximately $2 million of elevated expenses due to timing, and we expect O&M to moderate in the second half of the year. The timing-related expenses included vegetation management and generating station maintenance work that was accelerated into the first half of the year in preparation for hurricane season and the fall generation peak.

Efficient execution will remain a key area of focus for us for the remainder of the year, and we still expect to manage O&M increases within the 3.68% inflationary adjustment allowed under the ARA. Performance incentive mechanisms, or PIMs, will also be a key driver of our full-year earnings. We still expect total net PIMs of approximately $4 million, although a different mix of PIMs are contributing to this total than originally forecast. Fuel prices have decreased since the beginning of the year, and during the second quarter, we recognized approximately $1 million of net income from fuel cost risk-sharing mechanism due to our fuel costs being lower than the benchmark, which was set based on our January fuel costs. Lower fuel prices have also contributed to lower customer bills across our islands.

We are also expecting a higher Interconnection Approval award as we improve interconnection times for our DER customers and increase renewable generation. We no longer expect to recognize any rewards from our RPSA PIM this year, as we've seen delays in one of our third-party-owned generators on Hawaiʻi Island in ramping up to full capacity after undergoing repair work, as well as delays in ramping up at two other renewable projects. However, we expect the higher fuel cost risk-sharing reward and rewards from our Interconnection Approval PIM to offset the RPSA PIM reduction. Turning to the bank. ASB's loyal and long tenure deposit base, along with our conservative approach to lending, underpin our low-risk community banking business model.

This model has continued to serve us well this year as we navigated challenges arising from the bank failures and sector liquidity fears that occurred earlier this year, and as we've worked to manage the industry-wide funding cost pressures caused by the rapid interest rate increases of the last year and a half. As a reminder, the vast majority of our deposits, or 85%, are from our retail customers. Nearly 50% of our retail customers have been with us for 10 years or longer. We also have strong commercial customer relationships, with nearly 40% of our commercial accounts having a tenure of more than 10 years. The long-term nature of our customer base contributes to our funding stability. 86% of ASB's deposits were FDIC-insured or collateralized as of the end of the second quarter, up slightly from 85% at the end of the first quarter.

79% of deposits were FDIC-insured, equivalent to last quarter. This is a very high level of deposit security for our customers and contributes to deposit stability. Total deposits as of quarter end of $8.2 billion were roughly flat compared to December 31, 2022. Time deposits were up, while core deposits saw a modest decline of 2.8%, as we've continued to see a slight uptick in customer spending due to the inflationary environment. We have not seen any unusual customer behavior as a result of the mainland bank issues experienced earlier this year. In addition to higher customer spending, we continue to see some depositors seeking higher-yielding alternatives and will continue to mitigate these pressures through cost efficiencies, as well as prioritizing bringing in new deposits.

On the asset side of the balance sheet, the very high quality of ASB's loan book is a result of our conservative approach to lending. This has served the bank well as we've started to see a focus on the quality of commercial real estate credits for mainland banks. The quality of our CRE loan portfolio and the quality of our broader loan book remain very strong. Delinquencies, net charge-offs, and nonaccrual loan % are at low levels. The vast majority of our loan book is backed by real estate, all located within Hawaii, where real estate values are supported by the real estate supply-constrained nature of our island markets. Turning to Slide 11.

Although higher interest rates have continued to benefit our yield on earning assets, which was up 7 basis points in the second quarter, the higher rates and a shift in funding mix have increased funding costs, which are similarly pressuring net interest margins industry-wide. Our cost of funds still remains relatively low compared to similarly sized peers, but was up 17 basis points to 83 basis points in the second quarter. The increase was due to higher rates and a shift in funding mix to include higher amounts of certificates of deposits and wholesale borrowings, as you can see at the bottom left of the slide. During the quarter, our net interest margin was down 10 basis points to 2.75%. Our NIM compression compares favorably to similarly sized peers and places us in the top quartile of the KRX constituents.

Turning to drivers of bank performance for the rest of the year on Slide 12. Due to the shift in funding mix and higher funding costs we've seen across the industry, we are expecting net interest margin to be lower for the full year than previously anticipated. We are expecting relative stability compared to our peers, and we've seen this play out so far this year. Our net interest margin guidance, which I'll cover in more detail on the next slide, reflects the continued composition shift in our funding mix. Further Fed Fund rate increases this year are expected to be immaterial to our guidance due to our balance sheet being interest sensitive neutral and the limited period left in 2023 that a rate increase would affect. Our credit outlook remains very positive, and we now expect a lower provision for credit losses than previously anticipated.

We are seeing strong credit quality with low net charge-offs and delinquencies. Our credit outlook and our expectations of continued stability in the Hawaii economy have contributed to our expectations of a lower provision now in the $0-$6 million range for the year. Expense management remains a key focus for ASB as we continue to make critical investments in digital transformation while prudently controlling costs. Turning to Slide 13. I'll provide a recap of our updated guidance expectations for the remainder of the year. We are reaffirming our utility guidance of $1.75-$1.85 per share. Achieving Performance Incentive Mechanism rewards and controlling O&M expenses remain key areas of focus for management. As mentioned, we expect other PIMs, such as fuel cost risk-sharing and Interconnection Approval, to offset our lower expectations for our RPSA rewards.

The utility's liquidity remains strong, having proactively addressed all near-term financing needs early in the year. Turning to the bank's outlook for the remainder of the year. Higher short-term interest rates and a challenging deposit environment continue to create margin pressures across the sector. Although our net interest margin has fared well relative to peers in the current environment, we now expect net interest margin for the year to be 2.7%-2.8% versus our previous expectation of 2.8%-2.9%. Given continuing stable credit trends, we are forecasting a lower provision for credit losses at $0-$6 million versus $0-$10 million previously. We still assume low single-digit loan growth for the year. Last quarter, we indicated that we would revisit bank EPS guidance this quarter, given uncertainty in macro trends.

Due to continued funding cost pressures and the resulting impact on net interest margin, we now expect bank EPS to be $0.62-$0.66, down from our previous expectation of $0.75-$0.85. Our guidance assumes a continued gradual funding mix shift for the balance of the year. The bank has managed non-interest expense increases within our guidance this year, and we expect this to continue as we proceed through the second half of the year. Due to the lower than anticipated Pacific Current performance, we expect holding company and other segment net losses of $0.37-$0.39 per share, compared to our previous expectation of $0.34-$0.36 per share. We still do not anticipate any equity issuances for 2023.

Based on the combined forecast for the segments, consolidated EPS is expected to be in the range of $2.00-$2.10, down from $2.15-$2.35 previously. Although our updated forecast reflects some near-term bank headwinds resulting from an unusually rapid rise in interest rates and its related impacts, the bank performed well overall in the second quarter. I'll now turn it back over to Scott, who will provide closing remarks.

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

Mahalo, Paul. Mahalo to all of you for joining us today. In summary, HEI delivered solid performance in the second quarter, growing net income at both the utility and bank, despite the macro challenges that face the broader banking sector. The utility is executing well under performance-based regulation, and we continue to make progress on our clean energy transition. ASB's conservative business model, with our mostly retail and largely insured deposit base, has proven its stability through different business and interest rate cycles, consistently contributing earnings and dividends that reduce HEI's need to issue equity. Our management team is laser-focused on execution and efficiency, and our combination of businesses continues to serve HEI's shareholders well. With that, let's open up the call for questions.

Operator (participant)

If you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If for any reason you'd like to remove that question, please press star followed by two. Again, to ask a question, it is star one on your telephone keypad. Our first question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, good afternoon, team. Thanks for the time, appreciate it.

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

Hey, Julien.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Senior Research Analyst)

Can you guys hear me okay? Hey, hey, absolutely.

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

We can.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, just wonderful. Just picking up on the, on the bank side here real quickly here. I mean, obviously saw the revisions here that you, you just mentioned in the remarks. How do you think about growth here, year-over-year into 2024? What are going to be the puts and takes? Do you think that we've sort of re-baselined at this point? How do you think about the, the, the moving pieces here, within the guidance and, and, and the, sort of incremental trends from here as you annualize at this level?

Paul Ito (CFO)

Yeah, Julien, thank-thanks for the question. In terms of, you know, year-over-year growth, I think, you know, we're, we're starting our planning process, and we won't have sort of the outlook for 2024 until later in the year. Of course, we'll give our guidance in the first quarter of next year. The factors that would drive what happens next year are some of the things that we're seeing now, right? In terms of interest rates, you know, where they head from here and, and when the Fed starts to, to reduce those rates. Loan growth, of course, would be a factor for next year as well.

As we messaged, for this- for the balance of the year, we do expect loan growth to be in the low single- mid single digits, but low, low single digits, as higher interest rates have reduced, you know, borrower interest in taking out loans. Of course, you know, on the mortgage side, it's, it's also has led to lower activity. The other thing is, is deposit mix shift is an important factor in terms of driving our margin. As we've messaged, right, for the balance of this year, we, we are seeing sort of a gradual mix shift continuing, and we've built that into our guidance. To the extent, those, you know, those trends change, that obviously will affect our earnings.

I would say. Then, of course, non-interest expenses is the other factor for, for drivers. Over the long term, we expect to manage our expenses, you know, sort of low, mid, mid single digits. Those are various factors that would, would drive next year. In terms of talking about this year, you know, I think we've, we've given our guidance, so we, we feel like, although we're not seeing, in terms of the trends, in, in terms of deposit growth, I'm sorry, deposit mix, we, we, we built that into our 270 to 280 NIM guidance there.

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

Yeah, you know, Julien, this is Scott.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Senior Research Analyst)

Right. Good-

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

I'll just add-

Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Senior Research Analyst)

Oh, go for it.

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

... yeah, I'm, I'm just going to add to what Paul said. You know, of course, I'm, I'm thinking about this from an enterprise-wide perspective. You know, of course, the whole banking sector this year has seen some challenges. As we said in some of our remarks, you know, what we expect to see through the remainder of the year for the bank is, you know, impacts those challenges, moderating, performance starting to, to get better. Then, of course, the rest of the, of the, enterprise, the utility, will continue to see pretty stable growth, as, as we've projected there. Overall, working through 2023, I think the utility and the bank combination continues to serve us pretty well. Sort of points to the, the value of having the combination.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Senior Research Analyst)

Right. You're, you're comfortable that you would annualize still at this level of the, the reduced NIM here, the 2.7%-2.8%? I, I know that obviously that's what you incrementally brought down here quarter to quarter, but I just want to get, get some degree of confidence in that new level here, if, if you will.

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

Yeah, we are. Yeah, Julien, we're confident that's the range that we're putting out there. That takes into effect, it takes into account what we see in terms of the market here in Hawaii and the trends.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Senior Research Analyst)

All right, fair enough. Then, I want to come back to the, you know, procurement avenues. I, I know that there's two separate avenues there. You also alluded to in your comments that there are some wires investments potentially as well. Can you just give us a sense of the scale of opportunity of represented here? I mean, obviously, there's megawatts released here as well, but as you think about, especially the T&D side of that, right? Whether, whether or not you're awarded some of these projects, how do you think about that, that wire side in both Maui and Oʻahu, if you can speak to it? Presumably, those announcements will be made simultaneously for the wires and the generation in, in late October.

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

Well, just to, just to clarify a bit, Julien, the announcement will be for the final award group for the generation. I mean, this is a renewable generation RFP. The investment, the added investment down the road in the transmission and distribution system would come about partly to support these renewable generation projects that would be brought online. Also just continued investment in modernization, as we see more distributed energy resources, and the like. You know, I think I referenced our IGP plan, and that's where I made reference to this additional T&D investment. Most of that would probably come in post 2025, because that would be aligned with the timing of a lot of these new resources coming online.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. Any indications on, on the scale? I mean, obviously, you said you'll be in the top half year of, of the overall CapEx range for the current year, and maybe call it $410. Any sense of, of what that could do as you think about scaling into that, you know, post 25 period? Then, obviously difficult to say necessarily early on in the RFP process, but any commentary about what that's, you know, kind of the range of opportunities that could emerge there?

Paul Ito (CFO)

Julien, in terms of the, the IGP plan, we, we do have the, the final draft of filed, and in, in that plan, we do put out some forecasts of what that investment could be. Now, obviously, a lot could change until those plans are finalized, but in terms of building out the renewable energy zone, you know, infrastructure, it is a pretty significant investment. I, I think we do have, you know, post 2025, as Scott mentioned, some numbers in, in the IGP. There's a portion of about $60 million, and then there's a larger portion that's, you know, very, very significant, you know, over $1 billion, but that's over a long period of time. Those are the sort of the numbers. Again, very preliminary until we, we, we have these plans developed in more detail.

That's the guidance that we can give. It's a long-term investment opportunity for us going forward.

Shelee Kimura (President and CEO)

I'll just add to Julien. This is Shelee Kimura. I'll just add that those numbers that Paul provided of $60 million and over $1 billion, that would happen after 2025 through 2035. On the generation side, because we're in a competitive procurement process right now, we're not gonna be discussing any more details on, you know, the, the scale or amount of the bids that we either already put in for the Oʻahu RFP or the bid that we will be putting in for the Maui RFP.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah. No, I understand it's difficult to speak to exactly today. Is it fair to assume that the next quarter, we'll, we'll, we'll get a formal update, post the awards here, on what, what that would translate to in dollars and timing?

Shelee Kimura (President and CEO)

Yeah. For the Oʻahu RFP, the results will come out in October, so we would be able to talk about that at that time. For the Maui RFP, we won't have the results at that point.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Senior Research Analyst)

Indeed. All right. Thank you, guys.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Your line is now open.

Paul Patterson (Analyst)

Hey, good morning.

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

Hi, Paul.

Paul Patterson (Analyst)

Can you hear me?

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

Paul.

Paul Patterson (Analyst)

Hi. Just a couple of items on the bank here. It sounds to me that if I heard it correctly, and I apologize if I didn't, that you guys are seeing more competition from customers looking for higher interest rates than you were previously in the last quarter. Is that correct?

Paul Ito (CFO)

No, Paul. I think what we're seeing is, you know, compared to our, our previous forecast. Obviously, the interest rate forecast is higher than we had previously anticipated, so that's one driver. We are seeing a mixed shift, and we, we actually did, you know, a little bit, or we dug down in terms of deposit, deposit changes and what we were seeing there for the first half of the year. What we saw was probably a majority... What we're seeing is a lot more deposits coming in, but also a lot more deposits going out. There's a net, net outflow related to consumer spending. In other words, depositors spending more on sort of daily living expenses because of the higher inflationary environment.

We are seeing some migration to higher-yielding alternatives, in, in the data, and we expect that to continue if the rate environment stays elevated. In terms of your question on, on competition, you know, I think in the local Hawaii banking market, what we're seeing is, you know, all banks are, are, are competing on, on CDs. As, as we've mentioned before, right, this is new money that in order to take advantage of the higher rates, it, it requires a certain level of, of new money coming into the bank. So that's, that's where, you know, we are seeing a little bit more competition.

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

Yeah. Paul Ito, the other thing I'd say is that I don't think this was unexpected, given the higher interest rate environment, right? I mean, all the banks are competing. We are starting to see a little bit of shift from core deposits to the time-based CDs, and that's, I, I think that was anticipated. Our overall total cost of funds still remains very attractive compared to our peers.

Paul Patterson (Analyst)

Okay, I apologize for not speaking more clearly. I guess when I was talking about competition, I meant from all sources. From Treasury direct to, you know, online banking, what have you, not just the Hawaiian market. I guess what I'm wondering, I guess, in this context is, I guess, back to Julien's question, this net interest margin. I'm wondering whether or not there's a risk of further deterioration, given the interest rate environment and just the rollover as we go into, you know, quarter after quarter, going into 2024, if you follow what I'm saying?

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

Yeah, Paul. I'm going to ask Ann Teranishi, our bank president, to comment a little bit on that. I think in general, though, what we're starting to see is a moderation of impacts on NIM, maybe, Anne, you can expand.

Ann Teranishi (President and CEO)

Yeah, I think, Paul, to answer your initial question about are we seeing increased competition, I think, you know, the competition has been there and hasn't changed quarter-over-quarter. We have been quite successful in the second quarter with some of our CD campaigns and had great success in bringing in new retail deposit money, some from existing customers, from, from some from new customers, as well as being able to expand our commercial deposit base as well. We're feeling that the, the revised NIM is, is appropriate and, and tracking to what we've seen in the first six months, as well as what we're preliminarily seeing in the second half as well.

Paul Patterson (Analyst)

Right. I guess, what, what Julien was asking about, I believe, was the annualized rate. I think he was suggesting for the annualized rate starting now, and the new net interest margin. I guess, to be clear about this, how do you see the net interest margin for the next 12 months, I guess, is what I'm saying? Or for the next six months, how about that? Would it just be if we average it out, we could reverse engineer it, I guess, basically looking at what you guys had four months ago and, and what it is now, or how, how should we think about that?

Ann Teranishi (President and CEO)

Yeah. The, the, the NIM guidance is for the full 2023, and we're not really able to comment as to, 2024. The cost of funds is creating some pressure on the NIM, and we're just managing that, you know, being very surgical in how we apply pricing, as well as, as we originate new, new loans, how we're structuring and how we're pricing loans. That's all being very carefully managed.

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

Yeah. Paul, I think, I think, I'm, I'm, I'm trying to be clear on my answer here. So the $270-$280 range is for the full year 2023, right? Our Q1 was $285, Q2 was $275. As we project then throughout the remainder of the year, that's where we are estimating the full $270-$280. You know, that, that is our range, that's our, that's our. We're fairly confident in that.

Paul Patterson (Analyst)

Okay. I appreciate it. Thanks so much.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Jonathan Reeder with Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.

Jonathan Reeder (Equities Research Associate Analyst)

Hey, can, you guys hear me okay?

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

Yes. Hi, Jonathan.

Paul Ito (CFO)

Jonathan.

Jonathan Reeder (Equities Research Associate Analyst)

How are you guys?

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

Good.

Jonathan Reeder (Equities Research Associate Analyst)

I guess I might as well continue with a, with a bank question, but I guess, you know, for us utility dedicated folks, like, what can you do to limit or even eliminate the higher wholesale funding? Like, it seems like that's something that's, you know, more controllable on, on your end to some degree.

Paul Ito (CFO)

Yep. Yeah, Jonathan. In terms of the wholesale funding, what, what drives whether, you know, we can pay that down is really deposit trends or deposit growth. In this current environment, right, we're seeing deposits relatively flat. Being able to pay down those, that wholesale fundings, we're not expecting that for the balance of the year. The other thing that drives that is, is sort of pay down off of the investment portfolio and our, and our loan portfolio, the cash flow from that. The other offsetting factor is loan growth, right? We have to sort of balance all those three things in terms of loan growth, deposit growth, and then determine, is there excess cash flow, and if there's excess cash flow, we would pay down the highest cost funding sources first.

Specific to wholesale funding, we're not expecting a significant, or we're not expecting to, to pay debt-- pay that higher cost funding down any meaningful amount for this year.

Jonathan Reeder (Equities Research Associate Analyst)

Okay. I mean, in, in your opinion, it's still worth having, I guess, that wholesale funding balance out there, if that, you know, in, in order to, I guess, grow your loan book still? Like, that's, that's a trade-off that still is worth it, versus just saying, "You know, let's keep the loans flat," versus low, low single-digit growth.

Paul Ito (CFO)

Yes. Yes, I think... I mean, yes, it, you know, just given the current interest rate environment that we're in, the fact that, you know, loans are pricing or being issued at higher, higher rates, but our funding is also at, at a higher rate. It is a little bit, non-accretive to NIM, but accretive to NII.

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

Yeah, the other thing, Jonathan, is, you know, we are being very careful in terms of the loans that we're, we're issuing. We recognize that there is still a need by our customers for, for funding, but at the same time, we're being fairly selective in, in the loan book, in terms of how we're growing it, because, you know, again, balancing all these different factors.

Jonathan Reeder (Equities Research Associate Analyst)

Sure. Okay, that makes sense. I, I kind of missed it, but what was driving the revision in, in the holdco drag? Was that just higher interest expense at Parent?

Paul Ito (CFO)

No, this was related to Pacific Current. We're, we're expecting a little bit lower performance this year at one of their, their projects. There were some equipment issues that continued, resulting in, you know, the, the plant being down for, for a little bit of time. You know, that's largely been resolved, so in effect, for the full year, we're expecting a little bit lower or higher net loss related to, to that.

Jonathan Reeder (Equities Research Associate Analyst)

Okay. That should hopefully be something that, I guess, bounces back in 2024, not having that outage.

Paul Ito (CFO)

Yes, correct.

Jonathan Reeder (Equities Research Associate Analyst)

Okay. Then last for me, following up on Julien's question on the IGP. Is that filing, is that something that, like, the commission actually approves and, like, sets a definitive, you know, roadmap for you to follow and an approval process to move forward with the CapEx? Then, you know, if so, what's the HPUC's timeline for approving that IGP?

Shelee Kimura (President and CEO)

This is Shelee. The IGP was filed. We're waiting for PUC approval. Our next steps are to file the RFP that builds off of the IGP. We plan to file a draft in September, and our hope is that we can issue the final RFP in March of 2024. With respect to your question about the T&D investments longer term, that would require a separate filing to request approval for that kind of program, but it would be based in the broader master plan of the IGP.

Jonathan Reeder (Equities Research Associate Analyst)

The commission does, you know, give their blessing to the IGP, but you just have these other ways of actually, I guess, definitively moving forward with projects and maybe setting costs.

Shelee Kimura (President and CEO)

Yeah, that's right. I'd also like to add that, just a reminder, under PBR, we have, our, our, cost recovery. There is some level of CapEx that's already built into the PBR, and we get the inflationary increases each year.

Jonathan Reeder (Equities Research Associate Analyst)

Right. Right. Okay, great. Thanks for taking my questions today.

Shelee Kimura (President and CEO)

You're welcome.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Ashar Khan with Verition Fund. Your line is now open.

Ashar Khan (Portfolio Manager)

Hi, how are you doing? Can I just ask a question?

Operator (participant)

Sure.

Ashar Khan (Portfolio Manager)

The bank earnings are now expected to be down $0.14 from quarter one guidance. Can you break it down? How much is it NIM-related, how much of it is ROA-related? Could you help us to break down the drop in guidance? What are the factors which lead to the $0.14?

Paul Ito (CFO)

Yeah, really, the driver is essentially the NIM, right? Because of the mix shift and higher interest rate environment, that significantly increased our interest expense that we were previously forecasting. That resulted in a large compression in our NII. Again, you know, given our first quarter forecast, we weren't expecting as much of a mix shift, and we were expecting total deposits to be flat to modestly up. Now our guidance incorporates continued mix shift for the balance of the year.

Ann Teranishi (President and CEO)

Yeah, I'd just like to add, too. I think banks are all experiencing this similar cost of fund pressure. Just want to highlight, though, with the change in our NIM guidance, we've been managing it well. Our NIM compression quarter-over-quarter was just 10 basis, and the average for peers was more like 20. I, you know, I think we're trying to be pretty upfront in what we think the impact will be on cost of funds for the remainder of the year. Just know that we're managing it very closely with our deposit pricing and managing that shift in deposits.

Ashar Khan (Portfolio Manager)

Can I just assume that, like, if I'm right, the NIM went down by about 10 basis points assumption between the two quarters. The 10 basis points is equivalent to $0.14. Is that the right sensitivity?

Paul Ito (CFO)

Yeah, in, in terms of. I, I'm, I'm thinking about total funding costs, right? There, there are different-- Sometimes banks talk, talk about their core funding costs. We, we generally refer to our, our total funding costs. Our total funding costs for the quarter, was a 17 basis point change. In, in terms of the full year, we haven't, I guess, given the guidance of what that change will be, but I think you can maybe take it from our NIM guidance in the first quarter versus our, our, our, our new guidance. Essentially moving down from, 2.80%-2.90%, down to 2.70%-2.80%. I mean, that would be the, in terms of the drivers, is really, really the NIM.

If your question is whether you can assume I mean, I think what you have to do is look at our, our earning assets and then take the change in the NIM, and that would be sort of what you could expect.

Ashar Khan (Portfolio Manager)

Okay. Okay, fair enough. Yeah, I'm just trying to see if there is further NIM pressure, what would be the impact on, you know, earnings? Whether this 10 basis points equals to 14 is a good, is a good, is a good benchmark to use for if one is to go up or down as things play out this year or next year.

Paul Ito (CFO)

Yeah. Again, Go ahead. Go ahead.

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

Go ahead, Ashar.

Ashar Khan (Portfolio Manager)

My, and my, final question is: so I, I see your cash flow slides have not changed. Can I ask you where-- so we are losing about $14 million or $15 million in, you know, earnings after tax? Where is that, how is that, being absorbed as the cash flow is, is exactly the same as in quarter one? What is coming in to replace that lost earnings in your cash flow projections for the year?

Paul Ito (CFO)

Yes, Ashar, I, I assume you're, you're talking about the cash flow dividends from, from the bank-

Ashar Khan (Portfolio Manager)

Yeah

Paul Ito (CFO)

to the holding company?

Ashar Khan (Portfolio Manager)

That's correct.

Paul Ito (CFO)

The way we... Yeah, the way we size the dividend to the holding company is based on the bank's Tier 1 leverage ratio. The Tier 1 leverage ratio is, you know, is affected by earnings to some extent, but also balance sheet size growth or contraction of the balance sheet also has an impact. Based on our, on our outlook, even though earnings have come down, but based on our outlook for Tier 1 leverage, we're still able to, manage the dividend that, that we set earlier in the year.

Ashar Khan (Portfolio Manager)

Okay. Can I just follow up to that, is, what is the maximum that you can dividend out of the bank to manage that Tier 1? Can I just have that information? What is, at the tier that you are, what is the maximum dividend that you can get out from the bank?

Paul Ito (CFO)

we manage our, our Tier 1 leverage ratio to be between 7.5%-8%. In terms of the maximum we could dividend out, I don't have the, that exact number in front of me. I think in our 10-K, we, we sort of touch on the amount of dividends that our subsidiaries are restricted from not able to, to be dividended up to the holding company. But at, at the end of the quarter, we were at 7.79% for our Tier 1 leverage ratio.

Ashar Khan (Portfolio Manager)

Okay. Okay, you can go down till 7.5? You said the range was 7.5-8, right? Correct, am I right?

Paul Ito (CFO)

I technically, but I think, you know, we like to manage our Tier 1 leverage ratio conservatively, so we wouldn't necessarily, you know, make a decision to dividend the maximum amount to get down to 7.5%. We generally try to-

Ashar Khan (Portfolio Manager)

Okay

Paul Ito (CFO)

... stay within that 7.5%-8% range.

Ashar Khan (Portfolio Manager)

Okay. Okay, thank you so much.

Operator (participant)

There are no more questions, so I'll pass the call back over to Scott Seu for closing remarks.

Scott Seu (President and CEO)

I just want to thank everybody again for joining us today. We look forward to another quarter of solid results supported by our stability, the efficiency and reliable performance at our companies. Thank you, everybody.