Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered strong top-line and sales activity but softer profitability: revenues rose 26% year over year to $1.284B, contract sales climbed to $837M, while GAAP diluted EPS fell to $0.19 and adjusted diluted EPS to $0.49; adjusted EBITDA attributable to stockholders was $240M, down from $270M YoY due to a $49M construction deferral impacting results .
Momentum drivers: VPG reached $4,026 (+7.9% YoY), tours +36.1% YoY, financing revenue +$71M YoY; APAC strength and the launch of sales at Ka Haku (Waikiki) supported close rates and upgrades .
2025 outlook: Adjusted EBITDA (ex deferrals/recognitions) guided to $1.125B–$1.165B, share repurchase goal increased to $150M per quarter, and financing optimization to lift non-recourse borrowing to 65–70% in 2025, ramping to 70–80% by H1 2026; includes ~$25M incremental consumer financing interest expense headwind in 2025 .
Liquidity/capital markets: Term loans and revolver repriced lower in late Jan; adjusted free cash flow was a record $883M in Q4, aided by securitization activity and timing benefits, enabling $125M buybacks in Q4 and $66M more through Feb 20, 2025 .
Stock reaction catalysts: Acceleration in contract sales/VPG, Bluegreen integration benefits (MAX upgrades), and the financing optimization program enabling larger buybacks; near-term margin pressure from license fee step-ups and financing interest expense is a watch item .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

VPG and sales execution: “VPG of 4,026…at the best levels since the highs we saw in ’22,” driven by APAC strength and Ka Haku launch; “highest close rate since the record levels of 2022” .
Bluegreen integration/Max rollout: “We added nearly 5,000 new HGV Max members in less than 2 months post launch…quicker uptake than…early ’22,” with double-digit growth from Bluegreen in Q4 .
Cash generation and capital returns: “Record year in adjusted free cash flow generation at $837 million…allow us to return a record $600 million to shareholders” via optimization; Q4 adjusted FCF $883M .

What Went Wrong

Margin compression and deferrals: Adjusted EBITDA attributable to stockholders fell YoY to $240M, with a net construction deferral of $49M reducing reported EBITDA and EPS .
Rental segment loss: Rental and ancillary posted a $(11)M loss in Q4 due to Bluegreen’s rental business operating at a loss, elevated developer maintenance fees, and negative mix from Hawaii rooms shifted to member stays (reducing system RevPAR) .
Cost headwinds for 2025: Financing optimization adds ~$25M consumer financing interest expense, and license fee rate step-ups create a uniquely high headwind in 2025 (management cited ~$30M) .

Financial Results

Core quarterly metrics

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)	$1,235	$1,306	$1,284
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$0.02	$0.28	$0.19
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$0.62	$0.67	$0.49
Adjusted EBITDA Attrib. to Stockholders ($USD Millions)	$262	$303	$240
Adjusted EBITDA Profit Margin (%)	21.5%	23.5%	19.1%
EBITDA Profit Margin (%)	13.3%	18.7%	15.4%

Q4 YoY comparison

Metric	Q4 2023	Q4 2024
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)	$1,019	$1,284
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$0.62	$0.19
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$1.01	$0.49
Adjusted EBITDA Attrib. to Stockholders ($USD Millions)	$270	$240

Segment breakdown (revenues and segment adjusted EBITDA)

Segment	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Real Estate Sales & Financing Revenues ($MM)	$740	$814	$769
Real Estate Sales & Financing Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)	$193	$233	$170
Resort Operations & Club Management Revenues ($MM)	$386	$383	$399
Resort Operations & Club Management Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)	$152	$156	$162

KPIs and operating metrics

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Contract Sales ($MM)	$757	$777	$837
Tour Flow (count)	226,388	227,790	206,865
VPG ($)	$3,320	$3,392	$4,026
Fee-for-Service Contract Sales Mix (%)	19.5%	17.9%	18.3%
Financing Revenue ($MM)	$102	$105	$153
Financing Profit ($MM)	$58	$60	$93
Net Construction Deferral/Recognition ($MM)	$(8) (deferral)	+27 (recognition)	$(49) (deferral)

Consensus vs actual (Q4 2024)

Metric	Consensus	Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)	Unavailable (SPGI limit exceeded)*	$1,284
EPS (GAAP, $)	Unavailable (SPGI limit exceeded)*	$0.19
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	Unavailable (SPGI limit exceeded)*	$240

*Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable due to daily request limits.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA Attrib. to Stockholders (ex deferrals/recognitions)	FY 2025	Not previously provided	$1.125B–$1.165B	Initiated
Consumer Financing Interest Expense (incremental from optimization)	FY 2025	Not previously provided	~$25M headwind	New headwind
License Fee Rate Step-ups (EBITDA headwind)	FY 2025	Not previously provided	~$(30)M headwind if sales flat YoY (management)	New headwind
Share Repurchase Goal	FY 2025	$100M per quarter	$150M per quarter	Raised
Non-recourse Borrowing Rate (securitization)	FY 2025 (avg); H1 2026 (run-rate)	~mid-50s% (baseline)	65–70% in 2025; 70–80% at run-rate by H1’26	Raised target
Cash Conversion (Adj FCF / Adj EBITDA)	FY 2025	LT target 55–65%	65–75% in 2025	Raised near-term
Inventory Spend	FY 2025	N/A	Circa ~$450M (combined HGV+Bluegreen)	Set expectation

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Macro/Consumer (inflation, rates)	Q2: sales challenges and late-quarter consumer pullback ; Q3: momentum improving with staffing/regionalization	Environment consistent; travel intentions strong; focus on conversion and efficiency	Stabilizing consumer; improved execution
Bluegreen Integration & HGV Max rollout	Anticipated Max introduction to Bluegreen system (Q3)	~5,000 Max members added in <2 months; double-digit Bluegreen growth	Positive adoption accelerating
APAC/Hawaii & Ka Haku (Waikiki)	Net recognition in Q3 tied to Hawaii	Strong demand; upgrades at Ka Haku; 82% occupancy; pipeline >710k packages	Strong APAC tailwind
Financing Optimization & Securitization	Not detailed in Q2/Q3 press releases	Target 65–70% non-recourse in 2025; ramp to 70–80%; ~$700M cash unlocked at run-rate	Major strategic shift to fund buybacks
Rental Segment Profitability	Q2/Q3: rental profits modest and seasonal	Q4 rental segment loss $(11)M; Bluegreen rental losses, maintenance fees, Hawaii mix	Near-term pressure; expected improvement over time
License Fee Rate Step-ups	Not highlighted in prior press releases	Unique 2025 overlap creates YoY headwind (mgmt cites ~$30M)	Headwind to 2025 EBITDA
Controls/Regulatory	N/A	Material weakness remediated	Positive governance update

Management Commentary

“Reported contract sales were $837 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $289 million…came in ahead of our expectations.”
“We added nearly 5,000 new HGV Max members in less than 2 months post launch…quicker uptake than…early ’22.”
“VPG of 4,026…best levels since the highs we saw in ’22…strong performance out of our APAC region…initial sales launch of…Ka Haku.”
“Our goal in 2025 is to increase our nonrecourse rate to between 65% and 70%…unlock an additional $700 million of cash…increase our share repurchase goal…to $600 million.”
“We’ve remediated the material weakness that we previously disclosed in our 2023 Form 10-K.”

Q&A Highlights

Growth drivers and cadence: Management expects tours and VPG both in low-to-mid single digits for 2025; revenue growth to outpace EBITDA due to optimization interest and license fee headwinds; Q1 lowest growth/margin, better flow-through in Q2–Q3 .
Financing optimization: Program ramps over 18 months to ~70–80% non-recourse; trade-off is higher consumer financing interest expense (reduces EBITDA) in exchange for greater cash to fund buybacks; mid-2025 cash conversion 65–75% .
Loan loss provision: Expect mid-teens annualized in 2025; seasonality with Q4 lower; delinquencies stable .
Bluegreen MAX tailwind: Penetration to take 18–24 months as upgrades occur via in-person center engagements; strong initial uptake .
Geographic expansion: Broader regional footprint (e.g., Nashville, Texas, Japan Kyoto); emphasis on capital-efficient, just-in-time inventory .
Rental headwinds and mix: Hawaii rooms shifted to member stays lowered system RevPAR; Bluegreen rental losses and maintenance fees pressured segment .
Market momentum: No February softness observed; Q4 momentum carried into January .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS, revenue, and EBITDA was unavailable due to daily request limits. As a result, formal “beat/miss” vs Street cannot be determined here. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable due to daily request limits.

Where estimates may need to adjust:

Potential upward revisions to contract sales/VPG given Q4 strength and APAC upgrades; potential downward adjustments to EBITDA margins reflecting 2025 headwinds (optimization interest and license fees) despite revenue growth outlook .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Sales engine is re-accelerating: Contract sales and VPG up, APAC/Ka Haku fueling close rates; Bluegreen MAX upgrades provide a multi-quarter tailwind .
Near-term margin pressure: Deferrals in Q4, rental segment losses, and 2025 license fee/financing interest headwinds weigh on reported EBITDA despite higher revenues .
Capital return story strengthens: Optimization strategy aims to unlock ~$700M at run-rate and fund $600M repurchases in 2025; Q4 adjusted FCF of $883M underpins buybacks .
Watch credit metrics and provisions: Portfolio allowance at ~27%; provision expected mid-teens; originated WAI ~14.95%; defaults ~10.8% .
Inventory and development: 2025 inventory spend (~$450M) concentrated on pre-COVID projects (Hawaii); pipeline value $12.7B with 91.1% owned .
Strategic partnerships: Bass Pro rollout across ~125 stores in 2025, Great Wolf performing ahead of expectations, renewed Choice Hotels channel (digital opportunities) .
Governance improving: Material weakness remediated, capital structure repriced lower (SOFR +2.00% term loans; revolver maturity extended) supporting liquidity and lower spreads .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

Q4 segment details: Real Estate adjusted EBITDA margin 22.1%; Resort & Club 40.6% .
Balance sheet/liquidity (Dec 31, 2024): Cash $328M; restricted cash $438M; corporate debt $4.6B (WAIR 6.14%); non-recourse debt $2.318B (WAIR 5.24%); revolver availability $715M .
Share repurchases: 3.2M shares/$125M in Q4; additional ~1.6M/$66M through Feb 20; $361M remaining under 2024 program at that date .
Rental/ancillary: Revenues $174M; profit $(11)M; margin (6.3)% in Q4 .
Real estate profit: $118M in Q4; margin 21.7% (marketing revenue net adjustment noted) .

Citations: Press release Q4 2024 ; 8-K (Q4 2024) ; Earnings call transcript Q4 2024 ; Alternate transcript confirmation ; Prior quarters press releases Q3 2024 ; Q2 2024 .

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary