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Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 was driven by the delivery of Victoria Place in Ward Village ($778.6M condo revenue; ~27% gross margin), lifting total revenue to $983.6M and diluted EPS (continuing ops) to $3.25; Operating Assets NOI rose 9% YoY to $61.2M while MPC EBT was $56.9M amid lower superpad closings vs Q4 2023 timing .
  • 2025 guidance implies another record year in core segments: MPC EBT up 5–10% YoY (midpoint ~$375M) and Operating Assets NOI flat to +4% (midpoint ~$262M); Adjusted Operating Cash Flow guided to $325–$375M (midpoint ~$350M or ~$7/share) with year-end cash targeted at ~$600M .
  • Strategic pipeline remains robust: 96–100% pre-sold for Park Ward Village (97%) and Ulana (100%), Kalae 93%, and The Launiu 58%; Hawai‘i rule amendments potentially add 2.5–3.5M gross sq ft of Ward Village entitlements—an NAV tailwind .
  • Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS/Revenue was unavailable at time of analysis; beat/miss vs estimates cannot be assessed. Catalysts: strong 2025 outlook, condo closings cadence (Ulana in 2025), elevated land pricing in Summerlin/Bridgeland, and process developments regarding the Pershing Square proposal .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Record condo execution: all 349 units at Victoria Place closed in Q4, generating $778.6M revenue and ~$212M gross profit (~27% margin) .
    • Operating Assets resilience: Q4 Total Operating Assets NOI up 9% YoY to $61.2M with strength in multifamily (+13%) and retail (+15%); office +5% with stabilized office 89% leased by YE .
    • Strategic optionality/liquidity: $596.1M cash and >$900M total liquidity entering 2025; innovations like MUD receivable monetization augmented liquidity and extended Bridgeland Notes to 2029 .
    • Management tone: “another exceptional year…record-setting results in each segment” and confidence in 2025 record MPC/Operating Assets performance and ~$350M Adjusted Operating Cash Flow .

  • What Went Wrong

    • MPC quarterly comp softer vs Q4 2023: MPC EBT of $56.9M down from $139.3M prior year due to timing—superpad sales were pulled forward earlier in 2024, though full-year MPC EBT still a record $349.1M .
    • Downtown Summerlin retail refresh to weigh near-term NOI: tenant upgrades/new brands will cause a short-term NOI dip in 2025 before expected longer-term uplift .
    • Limited ability to assess Street vs. results: S&P Global estimates data were unavailable; could not frame beat/miss despite strong absolute prints [GetEstimates error].

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($M)$313.0 $327.1 $983.6
Net Income – Continuing Ops ($M)$52.8 $96.5 $162.3
Diluted EPS – Continuing Ops ($)$1.06 $1.95 $3.25
Total Operating Assets NOI ($M)$56.2 $64.8 $61.2
MPC EBT ($M)$139.3 $144.8 $56.9
Condominium Rights & Unit Sales ($M)$0.8 $0.0 $778.6

Segment Operating Assets NOI detail (Q4 YoY):

SegmentQ4 2023 NOI ($M)Q4 2024 NOI ($M)
Office$27.5 $29.0
Retail$11.3 $13.0
Multifamily$13.3 $15.0
Other$2.0 $1.5
Company share from unconsol. ventures$1.8 $2.3
Total Operating Assets NOI$56.2 $61.2

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024
Stabilized Office Leased88% 89%
Stabilized Retail Leased94% 96%
Stabilized Multifamily Leased95% 96%
MPC Residential Acres Sold (Qtr)191 (avg ~$1.03M/acre) 60 (avg $0.909M/acre)
Ward Village Condo StatusVictoria Place completed; +$760M Q4 revenue expected (delivered early Nov) Victoria Place closed all 349 units; ~$27% gross margin
Condo Pre-sales (YE 2024)Park Ward Village 96%, Kalae 92%, Launiu 55% Park Ward 97%, Kalae 93%, Launiu 58%; Ulana 100%

Notes: Q4 revenue surge reflects Victoria Place closings; MPC quarterly EBT pullback vs PY due to superpad timing earlier in 2024, but full-year records across segments .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
MPC EBTFY 2025N/AUp 5–10% YoY; midpoint ~$375MNew (initial)
Operating Assets NOI (incl. JV)FY 2025N/AFlat to +4% YoY; midpoint ~$262MNew (initial)
Condo Sales RevenueFY 2025N/A~$375M (Ulana closings; no gross profit)New (initial)
Cash G&AFY 2025N/A$76–$86M (midpoint $81M)New (initial)
Adjusted Operating Cash FlowFY 2025N/A$325–$375M (midpoint $350M/$7 per share)New (initial)
Year-end CashFY 2025N/A~ $600M (excl. any MUD sales)New (initial)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Housing demand / land pricingRecord residential land pricing; strong Summerlin superpads ($1.5M/acre in Q2); new home inventories tight; builder demand robust MPC EBT $56.9M in Q4 as superpad sales timed earlier in year; 2025 MPC EBT guided to new record (midpoint ~$375M) Strong and sustained; timing-driven quarterly lumpiness
Operating Assets leasingOffice momentum; abatements burning off; multifamily record NOI; retail steady-to-improving Office +5% YoY Q4; retail +15%; multifamily +13%; stabilized office 89% leased Continued improvement; office and MF lead
Retail repositioning (Downtown Summerlin)Tenant upgrades planned; short-term NOI headwind New premium tenants (e.g., Chanel); 2025 NOI dip expected during transitions Near-term headwind; longer-term uplift
Condos/Hawai‘i pipelineVictoria Place delivery expected Q4; pre-sales: Park 96%, Kalae 92%, Launiu >50% Victoria Place delivered and sold out; 2025 Ulana (~$375M revenue; no gross profit); Hawai‘i rules amendment adds 2.5–3.5M sf entitlements Strong execution; larger long-term runway
Liquidity / balance sheetKalae $420M construction loan; refinancings; MUD receivable sale boosted liquidity and extended Bridgeland Notes YE cash $596M; >$900M liquidity; 2025 YE cash target ~$600M (before potential MUD sales) Ample liquidity; self-funding model reinforced
Studios (Nevada)Legislative timing framed for next session; concept co-development with studios CEO testifying for AB 238; added Warner Bros. partner; pursuing film tax credits Advancing; policy-dependent
Corporate (Pershing Square)Special Committee formed; spin of Seaport completed (Q3) [67]Revised proposal received; Special Committee evaluating; no Q&A discussion Process ongoing

Management Commentary

  • “Howard Hughes delivered another exceptional year in 2024, led by record-setting financial results in each of our business segments…well positioned to deliver continued growth in the years ahead.” – CEO David O’Reilly .
  • “Overall, Adjusted Operating Cash Flow is projected to range between $325 million and $375 million in 2025 with a mid-point of approximately $350 million or $7.00 per share.” – CFO Carlos Olea .
  • “Subsequent to year end…the State of Hawai‘i amended rules…we estimate…potential for an additional 2.5 to 3.5 million gross square feet of residential entitlements in Ward Village.” – CEO David O’Reilly .

Q&A Highlights

  • Capital allocation: management continues to weigh high-return development (Hawai‘i condos; Ritz-Carlton Residences, The Woodlands) against share repurchases, tilting toward projects/share buybacks that maximize risk-adjusted returns given tight new development spreads .
  • Nevada studios: CEO actively supporting tax-credit legislation; partnership expanded to include Warner Bros.; 90-day legislative window highlighted .
  • Downtown Summerlin: upgrading tenant mix (e.g., Chanel) to elevate long-term performance; short-term NOI dip expected in 2025 due to turnover/buildouts .
  • Columbia office: turnover acknowledged; marketing underway; exploring strategic alternatives for an older asset; management sees improving leasing momentum .
  • Pershing Square proposal: Special Committee in charge; no timing details provided on the call .

Estimates Context

  • Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS/Revenue/EBITDA and counts was unavailable due to a data access limitation at the time of request; as a result, we cannot characterize beats/misses vs consensus for this quarter. We attempted to source S&P Global data but were unable to retrieve it (daily request limit exceeded) [GetEstimates error].
  • Directionally, absolute results were strong in EPS/revenue due to Victoria Place closings and Operating Assets NOI growth, but lack of consensus prevents formal beat/miss designation .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • 2025 setup is constructive: guidance midpoints imply record MPC EBT ($375M) and modest Operating Assets NOI growth ($262M), with ~$350M Adjusted Operating Cash Flow and YE cash near ~$600M—supporting the self-funding model and optionality for capital allocation .
  • Condo engine remains potent: Victoria Place monetization flowed in Q4; 2025 Ulana revenue (~$375M, no GP) de-risks the year; Park Ward and Kalae largely pre-sold, with The Launiu building presales for later years .
  • Operating Assets momentum: multifamily and office NOI improving on lease-up/abatement burn-off; Downtown Summerlin refresh a temporary NOI drag but positive mix upgrade over time .
  • Land pricing power intact: despite Q4 timing, full-year records in MPCs underscore durable demand and pricing in Summerlin and Bridgeland; 2025 land sale cadence likely 2Q–3Q weighted for Summerlin superpads .
  • Strategic upside: added Ward Village entitlements (2.5–3.5M sf) extend Hawai‘i runway, a notable medium-term NAV catalyst .
  • Process watch: ongoing Pershing Square proposal evaluation by Special Committee is a potential stock narrative driver; no new disclosures on timing .
  • Trading setup: without consensus data, focus near term on condo close cadence, MPC land sale timing, and leasing updates; mid-year Summerlin superpad closings and legislative progress on studios are monitoring points .

Citations

  • Q4 2024 8-K (press release, financials, guidance, supplemental):
  • Q3 2024 8-K and supplemental:
  • Q2 2024 8-K and supplemental:
  • Q4 2024 earnings call transcript:
  • Q3 2024 earnings call transcript:
  • Q2 2024 earnings call transcript:
  • Pershing Square proposal 8-Ks: