HIMS Q2 2025: weight-loss sub growth, Canada generic GLP-1 at $75-100
- Strong growth and retention in key specialties: Management highlighted that their personalized weight loss offering—with innovative components like personalized GLP‑1 treatments and a shift from on‑demand to daily sexual health services—is driving robust subscriber growth and improved retention, suggesting a broad base for revenue expansion.
- Significant opportunity in international expansion and pricing disruption: The firm’s strategy to leverage the Zava acquisition and launch generic semaglutide in Canada—with expected consumer prices around $75–$100 compared to the mid‑$300–$400 range for branded versions—positions them to capture a large market with structural cost advantages.
- Platform differentiation through technology and AI integration: The company is aggressively investing in AI-powered tools, at‑home lab testing, and personalized digital agents to enhance customer engagement, adherence, and ultimately transition into a membership‑driven preventive care model, which could lead to sustainable long‑term growth.
- Revenue headwinds from GLP-1 offboarding: The company experienced material headwinds as it offboarded subscribers on commercially available GLP-1 dosages, leading to lower revenue recognition per order and potential volatility in overall weight loss revenue.
- Risks from international expansion and integration: The acquisition of Zava and planned global market entries introduce potential integration challenges and the risk of management distraction from the core U.S. business.
- Near-term uncertainty in sexual health segment transitions: The deliberate shift from on-demand to daily sexual health offerings may cause short-term revenue softening and uncertainty in subscriber growth, impacting overall performance.
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | Q3 2025 | no prior guidance | $570 million to $590 million, 42% to 47% YoY | no prior guidance |
Adjusted EBITDA | Q3 2025 | no prior guidance | $60 million to $70 million, 11% margin | no prior guidance |
Revenue | FY 2025 | $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion, 56% to 63% YoY | $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion, 56% to 63% YoY | no change |
Adjusted EBITDA | FY 2025 | $295 million to $335 million, 13% margin | $295 million to $335 million, 13% margin | no change |
Weight Loss Specialty Revenue Contribution | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $725 million | no prior guidance |
Incremental Revenue | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $50 million | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Evolution of GLP-1 Weight Loss Treatments | Previously, earnings calls in Q1 2025, Q4 2024, and Q3 2024 focused on personalized dosing, subscriber offboarding challenges, managing side effects, and revenue volatility associated with GLP-1 treatments. | In Q2 2025, the discussion remains centered on personalized dosing, management of side effects, and highlights material headwinds from offboarding subscribers that led to a drop in monthly revenue per subscriber and increased revenue volatility, even as gross margins improved. | The focus on personalized GLP-1 solutions is consistent, but there is an increased emphasis on handling revenue volatility and managing the offboarding impact. |
Sexual Health Service Transition | The Q1 2025 call detailed the shift from an on‐demand model to daily, multi‐condition treatments that improved retention despite short‐term risks, while Q3 and Q4 2024 had little to no discussion on this topic. | In Q2 2025, the company emphasized strong growth in its daily sexual health offerings with 65% of new subscribers adopting daily models and a deliberate phase-out of on‐demand offerings, despite immediate headwinds. | The transition is being consolidated with emerging strong adoption of daily offerings and long‐term retention prospects, even as short‐term declines in on‐demand segments continue. |
AI and Technology Integration for Personalized Care | Earlier calls (Q1 and Q4 2024, Q3 2024) discussed the deployment of AI‐driven tools, enhanced diagnostics (including MedMatch), and overall platform differentiation to support personalized care. | Q2 2025 deepens this narrative by outlining the rollout of AI‐powered personalized agents, integration of lab testing and wearables into a unified data platform, and initiatives for AI governance and immediate tactical improvements. | There is a continued and deepening focus on AI integration with expanded functionalities and real‐time support to further enhance personalized care. |
Expansion into Preventative Care and Lab Diagnostics | Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 calls highlighted integration of whole‐body lab testing, preventative care strategies, and investments in longevity markets, while Q3 2024 did not cover this topic. | Q2 2025 emphasizes integrating a newly acquired blood testing lab into the platform for comprehensive lab diagnostics and outlines a broader preventative care strategy that includes investments in longevity care. | The expansion remains a strategic priority, with continued maturation of lab diagnostic capabilities and a stronger commitment to preventative care and longevity, indicating an evolving and integrated offering. |
International Expansion and Pricing Disruption | Earlier mentions were limited in Q1 2025 with early traction reported in the U.K., while Q3 and Q4 2024 did not focus on this area. | Q2 2025 introduced significant details on the acquisition of Zava to expand into key European markets and plans for launching generic semaglutide in Canada with disruptive pricing strategies. | There is an emerging strategic push internationally, with clear signals of leveraging acquisitions and pricing disruption to tap new markets—a notable intensification compared to previous periods. |
Pharmaceutical Partnerships and Regulatory Challenges | Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 (with additional mentions in Q3 2024) featured discussions around the Novo Nordisk collaboration, the use of personalized semaglutide under compounding exemptions, and regulatory compliance. | Q2 2025 did not specifically address pharmaceutical partnerships or regulatory challenges in the available discussion. | There is a reduction in emphasis on pharmaceutical partnerships and regulatory topics in Q2 compared to previous periods, suggesting either resolution of earlier challenges or a strategic shift of focus. |
Transition Risks in Treatment Models | In Q1 2025 and Q4 2024, the risk of transitioning from traditional commercial dosing to personalized treatment (including potential revenue drops and subscriber offboarding) was noted, with Q3 2024 emphasizing the benefits of personalized regimens. | Q2 2025 revisits these risks by highlighting the revenue impact from offboarding GLP-1 subscribers and addressing headwinds in sexual health transitions, while maintaining that personalized approaches drive long‐term retention. | The discussion on transition risks remains consistent with a clear acknowledgment of short-term revenue challenges balanced by long-term retention benefits from personalized approaches. |
Supply Chain and Cost Challenges | Previous calls (especially Q4 2024 and Q3 2024) discussed difficulties in sourcing branded medications, high costs associated with launches (e.g., liraglutide), and challenges with tariffs and reimbursement, while Q1 2025 touched on these indirectly via strategic partnerships and investments. | In Q2 2025, the company detailed proactive measures such as increased inventory levels, strategic investments in automation and domestic supply chain strengthening to manage supply chain volatility and cost challenges. | The focus has shifted toward proactive management through significant investments and inventory adjustments, reducing the emphasis on high costs and sourcing challenges seen in earlier periods. |
Product Adoption and New Offering Launch Risks | Q1 2025 expressed confidence in launching low testosterone and menopause support before year-end, while Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 noted timelines for whole-body testing and new verticals without deep risk discussion. | Q2 2025 underscores robust subscriber growth across key offerings but also acknowledges headwinds from transitions (e.g., in sexual health and GLP-1) and maintains cautious optimism for upcoming hormonal health launches. | There is steady product adoption with recognized transitional headwinds; while new offerings continue to progress, the company remains mindful of rollout timing and operational challenges. |
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Weight Loss Trends
Q: What are the weight loss segment trends?
A: Management highlighted strong growth in oral weight loss and personalized GLP‑1 offerings, despite headwinds from offboarding commercially dosed subscribers and shifting sexual health dynamics. -
Canada Launch
Q: How will the Canadian generic GLP‑1 launch work?
A: They explained the Canadian rollout will strictly comply with local regulations—shipments go directly to Canadian addresses and pricing is expected to be dramatically lower (around $75–$100) compared to branded prices, unlocking significant market access. -
HERS Performance
Q: How is the HERS business performing?
A: Management noted that the HERS segment is growing robustly, fueled by dermatology, weight loss, and upcoming hormonal support initiatives, which provides further diversification. -
AI Strategy
Q: What is the AI implementation timeline?
A: They plan to deploy AI-driven personalized agents in the next 3–6 months to immediately improve efficiency and customer engagement across the platform. -
Tariff & Capacity Protection
Q: Are there concerns over tariffs or capacity?
A: Management reassured that all API suppliers are FDA‐approved, with no meaningful tariff pressure and ample capacity ensured through diversified sourcing. -
Hormone Therapy Launch
Q: When will hormone therapy launch occur?
A: The new hormone therapy, targeting perimenopause, menopause, and low testosterone, is expected to launch very soon, supported by existing investments in both company and partnered facilities.
Research analysts covering Hims & Hers Health.