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    HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE)

    HIVE Q3 2025: 300MW Paraguay Expansion Online in 8 Months

    Reported on May 12, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$2.75Last close (Feb 12, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$2.76Open (Feb 13, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.01(+0.36%)
    • Scalable Expansion in Paraguay: The Q&A highlighted discussion around HIVE’s Paraguay strategy with a 300-megawatt facility scheduled to come online in about 8 months, suggesting potential for further regional expansion and increased mining capacity.
    • Lean SG&A and Strong Operating Leverage: Management emphasized that SG&A expenses will remain lean as the business scales, with costs not increasing proportionately with revenue growth due to economies of scale—especially when large-scale facilities are involved.
    • Execution Risk in Scaling: The Q&A raises the concern regarding the ramp in SG&A expenses, suggesting that if the expected economies of scale do not materialize, the company might face unexpected increases in operational costs as it scales, which could pressure profitability .
    • Uncertainty Over Cost Management: The analyst's question about operating leverage hints at potential risks that maintaining lean SG&A operations might prove challenging during expansion, leading to higher-than-anticipated overhead and margin deterioration .
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Paraguay Expansion Strategy

    Focused on a 100-megawatt data center intended to double hash rate and capitalize on low-cost green energy, cost efficiency, and significant capacity increases.

    Announced a 300-megawatt expansion with a transformational scale-up, strategic regional engagement in Latin America, and operational collaborations (eg, with Bitfarms) to expedite energization.

    Significant scale-up and strategic refinement, moving from a single-phase development to a larger, more transformative project.

    Operational Efficiency and Cost Leadership

    Emphasized ASIC optimization, granular management, and profitability through down-clocking older machines to improve unit economics.

    Highlighted a differentiated growth strategy with improved fleet efficiency (16.5 joules per terahash), best-in-class uptime, and lean SG&A to support scale and maintain a strong balance sheet.

    Consistent focus with increased emphasis on scale and rigorous cost control, reflecting an evolution from machine-level optimization to enterprise-wide operational efficiency.

    GPU-Powered HPC Diversification

    Discussed a 20-megawatt infrastructure project for HPC, detailing customer demand, ARR targets of $10M and an intended push to $20M as part of the transition from crypto mining to AI compute, while acknowledging engineering challenges.

    Focused on next-generation NVIDIA compute, including liquid cooling of Blackwell and preparation for high-density clusters aimed at achieving $20M in annualized revenue from renting clusters, building on the existing GPU-generated cash flow.

    Shift from infrastructure build-out to next-gen technology integration and operational revenue expansion, indicating a maturing approach to diversifying revenue streams through advanced hardware solutions.

    Crypto Halving Impact and Bearish Mining Cycle

    Noted that the halving reduced Bitcoin rewards (from 900 to 450 per day), impacting revenue yet offset by a rising Bitcoin price and adjustments like firmware optimization to sustain profitability, amid a bearish mining cycle with high mining difficulties.

    Acknowledged halving’s effect of receiving half rewards while maintaining high revenues, citing historical post-halving bull market trends and emphasizing resilient operations despite challenging market cycles.

    Evolving optimism and resilience: Both periods address the halving and bearish cycle, but Q3 shows a stronger forward-looking tone anchored by historical recovery patterns and continued operational robustness.

    Execution and Scaling Risks

    Discussed scaling operations in Paraguay through a 100-megawatt project, retrofitting strategies versus greenfield builds, and post-halving challenges that necessitated careful capital allocation to manage risks.

    Risk factors are less explicitly detailed; instead, the focus is integrated into achieving lean SG&A, scaling the hash rate from 6 to 25 exahash, and leveraging economies of scale in larger facilities.

    Decreased explicit risk focus in Q3, reflecting increased confidence in execution as risk factors become embedded in overall operational strategies.

    External Volatility and Geopolitical Risks

    Provided detailed volatility metrics along with discussions of geopolitical triggers such as Japan’s rate hikes and unwinding of its carry trade that directly impacted Bitcoin prices.

    Offered general volatility comparisons (eg, daily and 10‑day measures) without explicit reference to geopolitical risks, with an emphasis on relative volatility between HIVE, Bitcoin, and other asset classes.

    Shift from detailed geopolitical risk analysis to a broader discussion of volatility, reducing explicit focus on specific geopolitical events while still acknowledging external market turbulence.

    1. Funding Strategy
      Q: Use debt versus ATM for growth?
      A: Management noted that while they’ve seen many convertible debt deals, those often restrict the actual proceeds received. They prefer to use their strong balance sheet—with $250M in Bitcoin and ample ATM capacity—to secure the lowest cost of capital for growth.

    2. Paraguay Growth
      Q: Expand further in Paraguay post-300 MW?
      A: The team sees additional Latin American opportunities but is focused on executing the current 300 MW project in Paraguay before stretching resources further.

    3. SG&A Efficiency
      Q: How will SG&A expenses scale?
      A: Management explained that SG&A will not increase linearly; instead, economies of scale from larger facilities such as those in Paraguay will help keep these costs lean as operations expand.

    4. Site Closure Logistics
      Q: What are the obstacles with Bitfarms closure?
      A: They are in close communication with Bitfarms to ensure smooth energization of the site, aiming to meet the 25 exahash target without major hurdles despite logistical complexities.

    5. US Asset Ownership
      Q: Does US policy change affect domestic assets?
      A: With the U.S. administration now favoring crypto, management is more comfortable owning operating assets domestically—as reflected by moving the head office to San Antonio—reducing earlier regulatory uncertainty.

    6. HPC Conversion
      Q: Plans for converting sites to HPC?
      A: They are evaluating repurposing existing facilities for high-performance computing, engaging consultants to estimate the necessary CapEx and ensure stable, 100% uptime, though details remain preliminary.

    Research analysts covering HIVE Digital Technologies.