Harmonic - Q1 2023
May 8, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Welcome to the Q1 2023 Harmonic Earnings Conference call. My name is Latif, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. Please note that this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Scott Eckstein, investor relations. Scott, you may begin.
Scott Eckstein (SVP of Investor Relations)
Thank you, operator. Hello everyone, and thank you for joining us today for Harmonic's first quarter 2023 financial results conference call. With me today are Patrick Harshman, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Jeremy Rosenberg, Interim Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I'd like to point out that in addition to the audio portion of the webcast, we've also provided slides for this webcast, which you may view by going to our webcast on our investor relations website. Now turning to slide 2. During this call, we will provide projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or future financial performance of the company. Such statements are only current expectations and actual events or results may differ materially. We refer you to the documents Harmonic files with the SEC, including our most recent 10-Q and 10-K reports, and the forward-looking statements section of today's preliminary results press release.
These documents identify important risk factors which can cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward-looking statements. Please note that unless otherwise indicated, the financial metrics we provide you on this call are determined on a non-GAAP basis. These metrics, together with corresponding GAAP numbers and the reconciliation to GAAP, are contained in today's press release, which we have posted on our website and files with the SEC on Form 8-K. We will also discuss historical, financial, and other statistical information regarding our business and operations. Some of this information is included in the press release. The remainder of the information will be available on a recorded version of this call on our website. Now I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Patrick Harshman. Patrick.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
Thanks, Scott. Welcome everyone to our first quarter call. In the first quarter, Harmonic delivered another period of excellent results. Revenue was $157.6 million. EPS was $0.12. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 14%. Our broadband segment revenue grew 23% year-over-year, and our Video SaaS revenue was up 72% for the same period. Both segments had book-to-bill greater than 1. Strong demand for our products and services was further evidenced by strategic multi-year contracts signed for both CableOS and Video SaaS during the quarter. These new contracts, overall demand trends, and the competitive success we're seeing gives us continued confidence in our ability to deliver on our full year 2023 and previously stated multi-year growth objectives. Taking next a closer look first at our broadband segment.
It was another excellent quarter characterized by strong financial growth, promising market development, and expanding technology leadership. Segment revenue was $104 million, up 23% year-over-year. Adjusted segment EBITDA margin was 21.5%, demonstrating consistently improving operating leverage. New customer wins brought the total number of broadband operators deploying our solution to 94, up 22% year-over-year. At quarter end, our CableOS deployments expanded to serve 18.4 million cable modems worldwide, still only approximately 10% of the global cable modem footprint. Looking ahead, we see expanding opportunity associated with both the remaining 90% of this global cable footprint for distributed DOCSIS 3.1 and follow-on investment waves associated with DOCSIS 4.0, fiber to the home, and network expansions.
Breaking this down a little further, our 2023 growth expectations remain centered around our existing customers who continue to reaffirm and execute their advanced DOCSIS 3.1 and distributed access deployment plans across their networks. Looking a little further ahead, engagements with prospective new accounts are increasingly encouraging, aided by the visible success of our current customers and accelerating industry recognition of the unique market-leading benefits of our solution. Notably, during the quarter, we announced our partnership with Charter. We're very excited to contribute to their new network evolution, footprint expansion, and operational efficiency initiatives. We're also excited about the progress we continue to make with our new DOCSIS 4.0 and fiber solutions, important contributors to our multi-year growth plan. In the DOCSIS 4.0 area, our technology is out in front and we're actively supporting our customers with advanced demonstrations and trials.
In the fiber area, our unique cloud-native vBNG and remote PON solution continues to gain traction with both new and existing customers. The new orders and sales pipeline are growing in line with our 2025 fiber growth target. I'll conclude this broadband update by reminding you of our overall 2025 financial targets. Over $825 million revenue and over 28% EBITDA margin. The combination of our existing customers have already begun multi-year deployment programs. New customers we expect to begin scaling in 2024. Our increasingly strong competitive position across both cable and fiber all give us high confidence in delivering on these 2025 targets and building an even stronger broadband business that will drive profitable growth for years to come. Turning now to the video segments.
Here also, we delivered a solid quarter. First quarter segment revenue was $57.3 million. Although the top line was down, gross margin was 60.4%, up 160 basis points year-over-year, reflecting a continued shift to software, reduced low margin server sales, and especially continued SaaS transformation and growth. SaaS revenue was up over 72% year-over-year, exceeding 20% of total segment revenue for the first time. The strong streaming SaaS growth was primarily driven by existing media accounts expanding their live sports content rights and consumer reach, resulting in growing consumption of our services. A second significant highlight of the quarter was several new SaaS contracts with major media players that will begin to contribute recurring SaaS revenue in the coming periods.
Among these were a greater than $10 million expansion with an existing sports streaming customer, and a greater than $20 million contract with a historically appliance-based broadcaster who's flipping the majority of their traditional operations to our SaaS. Associated with the April industry NAB event in Las Vegas, we recently made several announcements that highlight our growing leadership and success in live sports, streaming, and dynamic service monetization. On the customer front, we announced very exciting relationships with Madison Square Garden, Bally's Interactive, and VertiCast. On the technology and services front, we announced significant new SaaS technology advancements and ecosystem partnerships for dynamic ad insertion and FAST channel creation.
Recapping our video business strategy, we're focused on taking a leading position in the growing streaming SaaS market, particularly for live sports, and maximizing profit from the traditional video appliance market, with a financial focus on recurring revenue, gross profit, and EBITDA. The first quarter results, both financial and strategic, demonstrate that we continue to make excellent progress towards these objectives. In fact, we're increasing our internal streaming SaaS forecast for 2023, and we remain highly confident in the 2025 business transformation, SaaS revenue growth, and composite EBITDA targets we previously shared with you. With that, I'll now turn it over to you, Jeremy, for further discussion of our financial results and our outlook.
Jeremy Rosenberg (Interim CFO and SVP of Business Development)
Thanks, Patrick. Thank you all for joining us today. Before discussing our quarterly results as well as our outlook, we remind everyone that the financial results being referred to are provided on a non-GAAP basis. As Scott mentioned earlier, our Q1 press release and earnings presentation includes reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP that are discussed on this call. Both of these are available on our website. We delivered another quarter of strong financial results, highlighted by record first quarter revenue and solid operating profit. We ended the quarter with a solid balance sheet as well as record backlog and deferred revenue, positioning us well for continued growth in 2023 and into 2024. Before reviewing our Q1 2023 financials in more detail, let's briefly review the key highlights here on slide 7.
For the quarter, we reported record revenue of $157.6 million, with EPS of $0.12, record bookings of $325.5 million, and record backlog and deferred revenue of $623.5 million. Let's review our first quarter financials in detail. Turning to slide 8. Total Q1 revenue was $157.6 million, up 6.9% on a year-over-year basis. Looking first at our broadband segment, Q1 revenue was $100.4 million, up 4.5% sequentially and 23% year-over-year, reflecting continued current customer ramp-up and newer customer launches, including modest fiber revenue generated during the quarter. In our video segment, we reported Q1 revenue of $57.3 million, down 16.1% sequentially and 13% year-over-year.
Our video revenue included SaaS revenue of $11.6 million, up 72% from the prior year, which was ahead of our expectations. We had one customer representing greater than 10% of total revenue during the quarter, with Comcast representing 47% of total revenue, which was similar to last quarter. Total company gross margin was 53.9% for Q1 2023, up 120 basis points sequentially and 660 basis points year-over-year, reflecting increased gross margins in both of our business segments. Broadband gross margin was 50.1% for Q1 2023, up 250 basis points sequentially and 1,210 basis points year-over-year.
This improvement was due mainly to a very favorable product and services mix and to a lesser extent, our strategic inventory investments to enable sea freight versus air freight. Video segment gross margin was 60.4% in Q1 '23, up 50 basis points sequentially and 160 basis points year-over-year. This was primarily due to SaaS continuing to scale. Moving down the income statement on slide 9. Q1 '23 operating expenses were $66.2 million, up 5.2% sequentially and 13.4% year-over-year. The increases were primarily due to increased research and development to support the growth of our broadband business and the ongoing strategic transition of the video segment to SaaS.
Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 '23 was $21.4 million, or 13.6% of revenue, up 48.3% versus Q1 '22, comprised of $21.6 million from broadband, representing 21.5% of segment revenue, and a loss of $0.2 million from video. This all translated into Q1 '23 EPS of $0.12 per share, compared to $0.17 per share in Q4 '22 and $0.08 per share for Q1 '22. We ended the first quarter of 2023 with a calculated diluted weighted average share count of 117.8 million compared to 117.3 million in Q4 '22 and 110.6 million in Q1 '22.
The year-over-year increase was primarily due to the issuance of shares for settlement of the premium for convertible debt conversions upon maturity in December 2022, and the issuance of shares to employees for vested restricted stock units, ESPP purchases, and performance-based compensation. Turning now to the order book. We reported record bookings of $325.5 million. The book-to-bill ratio was 2.1 for the first quarter. For Q4 2022 and Q1 2022, our book-to-bill ratios were 0.8 and 1.4, respectively. Q1 bookings include particularly strong multiyear SaaS bookings and new CableOS commitments. Over time, as supply chain conditions improve, we expect this ratio to normalize and approach the historical benchmark of modestly greater than one. Turning to the balance sheet on slide 10.
We ended Q1 '23 with cash of $90.9 million, compared to $89.6 million at the end of Q4 '22. The net $1.3 million sequential increase was due to a variety of factors, including improved DSO. We generated $6.3 million cash from operations, net of investing $10.5 million in inventory. Increased inventory has, by design, enabled us to meet strong demand for our products and to proactively manage our supply chain, enhance product availability, and provide us with flexibility to use a higher proportion of ocean freight over air freight, resulting in improved gross margin. As noted earlier, these investments helped drive the gross margin expansion we reported for the quarter. We also used $2.3 million of cash in the purchase of fixed assets. Turning to days sales outstanding.
At the end of Q1 2023, DSO was 50, compared to 59 the previous quarter and 71 in the prior year period. Days inventory on hand was 163 days at the end of Q1 2023, up 16.4% compared to the end of Q4 2022, and up over 71.6% compared to the end of Q1 2022. The increase reflects our continued proactive investment in inventory as we prepare for growth during the rest of 2023 and into 2024. Regarding capital allocation, our top priority remains driving our future growth. As such, we will continue to strategically invest in building inventory to meet the strong demand that we're seeing. We continue to enjoy considerable success by employing this strategy.
If the supply chain situation improves substantially, as we've stated previously, we do have the flexibility to manage our working capital differently and generate additional cash by maintaining somewhat lower inventory levels. At the same time, our capital allocation strategy also takes into account our ability to return capital to our shareholders through stock repurchases. As we've stated previously, the timing and amount of any repurchases will depend on a variety of factors, including the price of Harmonic's common stock, market conditions, corporate needs, and regulatory requirements. At the end of Q1, total backlog and deferred revenue was $623.5 million. This record backlog in deferred revenue reflects strong demand from our large broadband customers and growing Video SaaS commitments. The majority of our backlog and deferred revenue has customer request dates for shipments of products and providing services within the next 12 months.
Please note that we are now guiding to majority within 12 months rather than our historical 80% guide. This change also reflects the timing of some commitments of greater than 12 months with scheduling in process. In summary, operating cash flow was solid in Q1 2023, taking into consideration our stated capital allocation strategy, whereby we invested our free cash into inventory to meet the persistent demand we're seeing from our customers and to support our continued growth and managing freight. Let's now review our revised non-GAAP guidance for 2023, beginning on slide 11. For total company for the full year 2023, we expect revenue in the range of $705 million-$740 million, up $8 million at the midpoint from prior guidance. Gross margin in the range of 50.9%-51.9%, an increase versus prior guidance.
Operating expenses to range from $262 million-$271 million, a slight increase versus prior guidance. Adjusted EBITDA to range from $108 million-$125 million, up $7 million at the midpoint from our previous guidance. An effective tax rate of 20%, up from 13% last year as we exhausted our NOLs in the past year. A weighted average diluted share count of approximately 118.1 million. Please note that the convertible debt-related dilution included in our share count uses the Q1 average stock price of $13.79. EPS to range from $0.63-$0.74 per share, subject to the just-mentioned dilution calculation, up $0.05 at the midpoint from previous guidance.
Cash at the end of 2023 is expected to come in between $125 million and $135 million. For total company for the second quarter of 2023 on slide 12, we expect revenue in the range of $161 million to $171 million. Gross margin in the range of 51.8%-52.9%. Operating expenses to range from $66 million to $68 million. Adjusted EBITDA to range from $20 million to $25 million. Effective tax rate of 20%. Weighted average diluted share count of approximately 117.8 million. EPS to range from $0.11 to $0.15, and cash to range from $90 million to $100 million. Turning to slide 13.
For the full year 2023, based on our progress to date and the latest customer information, we expect broadband to achieve revenue between $450 million-$470 million, which is $5 million above prior guidance at the midpoint. Gross margins between 46%-47%, a 100 basis point improvement over previous guidance, given our expectations for software-hardware mix. Operating expenses between $123 million-$128 million, up slightly from our previous guidance based on supporting increased customer activity. Adjusted EBITDA between $90 million-$99 million. For our broadband segment in Q2, we expect revenue in the range of $101 million-$106 million. Gross margin in the range of 47%-48%. Operating expenses in the range of $31 million-$32 million.
Adjusted EBITDA to range from $18 million-$20 million. Now, on slide 14, let's review full year 2023 video segment guidance. We expect revenue in the range of $255 million-$270 million, up $2.5 million at the midpoint from previous guidance. Gross margins in the range of 59.5%-60.5%. Operating expenses in the range of $139 million-$143 million, down slightly. Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $18 million-$26 million. For our video segment in Q2, we expect revenue in the range of $60 million-$65 million. Gross margin in the range of 60%-61%. Operating expenses in the range of $35 million-$36 million. Adjusted EBITDA to range from $2 million-$5 million.
In summary, during the first quarter, we continued to execute our strategic plans and drive strong growth in our broadband segment while advancing the planned transformation of our video segment. We ended the first quarter with record backlog and deferred revenue. We believe this and the strong demand we continue to see from both new and existing customers positions us well for the rest of 2023 and into 2024 as we continue to execute on our long-term business plan. Thank you, everyone, for your attention today. Now let's turn back to Patrick for final remarks before we open up the call for questions.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
Well, thank you, Jeremy. In summary, we delivered another very strong quarter characterized by excellent financial results, significant new contracts, and important new customer relationships in both the broadband and video sides of the house. Our technology, our customer relationships, and our team all continued to lead the markets we serve. We see great opportunity ahead and remain determined and confident in taking full advantage of these opportunities in 2023, 2024 through 2025 and beyond. Thank you for your continued support. With that, let's now open up the call for questions.
Operator (participant)
As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. Again, that's star one one on your telephone to ask a question. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Simon Leopold of Raymond James. Your question please, Simon.
Simon Leopold (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Communications Equipment)
Great. Thanks for taking the question. In March you announced the Charter award, which we've all been keeping our fingers crossed waiting for. What struck me was it specifically talks about the virtual CMTS products and does not discuss other products such as the DAA nodes. Given the revenue forecast, I'm sort of assuming your intent is to sell them DAA nodes as well, and not simply the CableOS headend solutions. If we could get a little bit more color on the composition of that project and the timing, I'd appreciate it.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
Well, it's a little awkward, Simon. It's, you know, we can't go there and talk in any specificity about any particular customer's plans. The communication that we agreed and that you saw with Charter was intended to really speak to, the partnership around the broad portfolio of the capabilities that Harmonic brings to bear. Certainly our virtualized core is central to our solution and hence the specific mention of that. I would say in any engagement that we're involved in worldwide, we see strong interest and opportunity around both the centralized core software, as well as, the hardware elements of the solution.
Without implying anything too specific about Charter, just kind of it's axiomatic that we would we would pursue hardware-related business with Charter just like we would with any other customer or partner.
Simon Leopold (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Communications Equipment)
Just as a follow-up, the forecast for the broadband segment suggests a pretty heavy back-end load to the year, given that the first half of the year is just a little over $200 million and even your low end is $450 million for the full year. How should we think about that? Is it a very back-end loaded sort of 4Q, or is the third quarter sort of a somewhere in between the 3Q, 4Q guide? How do we think about it given sort of trying to figure out where that revenue is coming from and the timing? Thank you.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
Yeah. Look, every one of our customers is actually still scaling. The overall theme is continued growth. I'd stop short of saying it's linear, but we expect Q3 to be up and we expect Q4 to be up on top of that. That's based on the aggregate continuing deployment plans of our global customer base.
Simon Leopold (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Communications Equipment)
Thank you very much.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Koontz of Needham & Company. Your question please, Ryan.
Ryan Koontz (Senior Analyst of Broadband Networking, Cloud Communications, and Satellite)
Thanks for the question. Nice work on the gross margin there moving up and great bookings number obviously. I'm sure you're not gonna respond so much quantitatively, but can you help us understand the software contribution there, in terms of the quarter? You know, bookings I assume with the shift in, long-term, deferred there's a stronger software contribution there as well. Maybe shed some light on that, be helpful. Thank you.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
Yeah. Hi, Ryan. Jeremy here. Thanks for the question. In our results, we absolutely did get a strong software mix and in our and that did push the margins up. That's, you know, as you well appreciate sometimes the timing on how those things happen. We've really taken a systems approach to how we sell, as you know, as between software and hardware. We're not breaking out software and hardware in the back walk, Ryan.
Ryan Koontz (Senior Analyst of Broadband Networking, Cloud Communications, and Satellite)
Sure. Okay. Then maybe if you can reflect on, you know, the non-Comcast revenue. You've had just a tremendous run there. How should investors think about the scale of the non-Comcast revenue forward here in the guide? Do you think we'll start to see some meaningful growth there as we go through the year?
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
The short answer is yes. Comcast is the largest cable operator, you know, in the planet. They're also furthest ahead. It's not surprising to see them out front. In aggregate, the rest of the market is much larger, and our competitive position with the rest of the market is growing increasingly strong. Over time, while we're excited about the work we still have ahead of us with Comcast, the just the math of the rest of the market says that the rest of the market will increasingly be a larger and larger portion of the business that we're seeing, we believe.
Ryan Koontz (Senior Analyst of Broadband Networking, Cloud Communications, and Satellite)
That's fair. Thanks so much, and congrats again on the Charter deal.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
Thank you, Ryan.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steven Frankel of Rosenblatt. Please go ahead, Steven.
Steven Frankel (Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst)
Good afternoon. Thanks. Keeping with the theme from the last couple of questions, going back to the last call, I think there was some color that you guys gave around the fact that there were three or four Tier 1s that were very early in their deployment phase, and you had anticipated that they would be scaling up between now and the end of the year. Is that still the case, or did any of those customers' plans get pushed out?
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
It's still the case. There's no material change in terms of the expectations or the forecast that we had, you know, for a bunch of them.
Steven Frankel (Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. You mentioned an interesting case in the video business of a legacy appliance customer, switching to broadband. Maybe, I'm sorry, switching to your cloud-based offerings and SaaS. Maybe walk us through the economics of that kind of transition. Do you think this is something that will become fairly commonplace in your customer base over the next couple of years?
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
Yeah. I'll start with the end of the question. I mean, the short answer is yes. I think that the, from both a technology perspective and from an economics or business model perspective, I think that the broadcast market is, has been kind of very much on a learning curve, understanding how to harness cloud. I think there's no question that it's not really a question of if, but when. The economics, both from a cost perspective as well as from a flexibility and innovation perspective, from a personalization perspective, it's just there's overwhelming advantages that are, I think, increasingly understood by the market, Steve.
You know, if you go back to the analyst day that we did in September, we talked about streaming sports as perhaps the largest opportunity. We also highlighted conversion of traditional broadcast infrastructure as another significant SaaS opportunity. It's great to see the first, from our perspective, the first major domino there to fall, if you will, in that regard.
Steven Frankel (Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst)
Great. Lastly, maybe an update on the CFO search.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
The headline is it's going well. Jeremy has a big smile. Yeah. We're fortunate. We're having discussions with a number of really excellent candidates. I can't give you specific dates, but we're making good progress. I think that we'll have a an world-class CFO on board in the not-too-distant future.
Steven Frankel (Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst)
Great. Thank you.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
All right. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tim Long of Barclays. Your question please, Tim.
Tim Long (Managing Director)
Thank you. Two, if I could. First on the video side, Patrick, can you talk a little bit more about kind of the SaaS wins you guys are getting? You mentioned, you know, live sports a few times, can you talk a little bit about the complexion of those wins? You know, how broad-based they are? Are these kind of competitive wins, or is it folks maybe were looking at doing it themselves? You know, just any color you can give us there. You also mentioned fiber to the home going well according to plan. Can you just give us an update there on how your customers are looking at that portfolio and how you see the ramp going? Thank you.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
Okay. Thanks. Both good questions, Tim. On the SaaS front, really, it's all of the above. As I reflect on our, perhaps our top 10 SaaS customers, they really come from all the different categories we've previously spoken about. I would say in general, they are all competitive with either, our traditional competitors or, as you say, with in-house. One of our top 3 customers, for example, it's the first time they've gone outside. They do their own VOD stuff themselves, which is a somewhat easier technical problem, but they turn to us for the live sports. Other recent wins were very much competitive situations with other peer companies, competitive companies like us, who are providing a more turnkey cloud-based SaaS offering.
As we touched on a couple of moments ago, from another dimension, the customers also span media companies that are new to us, maybe, you know, new brands out there, all the way to traditional brands that you and I know for, you know, the last 30 years that are changing their approach and their philosophy on infrastructure and moving from traditional appliances to SaaS. So it's really all of the above, and we previously described it as a fragmented market.
I'm impressed with the way our team is increasingly, sales and marketing is getting after it, kind of covering the market from all different dimensions to get engaged with these myriad kinds of opportunities. On the fiber side, I think fiber is becoming increasingly relevant for all participants in the market. Home base for us is really the cable operators, and there is increasing competitive pressure in certain markets from fiber-based competitors.
Having a fiber offering is part of the arsenal, particularly on what we call greenfield, seems increasingly important to our customer's strategic plans, and our solution seems to be a perfect fit for that kind of application, where we really layer on top of the CableOS cloud-native core and the already distributed multi-gigabit access point, our so-called node.
Tim Long (Managing Director)
Okay, great. Thank you.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
All right. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Again, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone at this time. Again, that's star one one on your telephone to ask a question at this time. Our next question comes from the line of Tim Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets. Your question, please, Tim.
Tim Savageaux (Senior Research Analyst)
Thanks. Good afternoon, and congrats on the crazy bookings number. I'll ask about that in a moment. I wanted to touch on, I think this may be kind of a new metric you've given us here about your cable modem served representing 10% of the global footprint. Is, is that, you know, is that 10% of, you know, cable broadband subscribers globally? I guess historically, you've talked about the footprint of your wins, which you added to substantially. I'm gonna assume that's up to 130 million now, so or something like that, in terms of homes passed. That's a different metric than the subscriber metric that you gave us.
I think in both cases, it suggests, you know, you're still pretty early on, whether it's 10% of the subscriber footprint or what looks to me to be 14% of your win homes passed. How should we look at either or both of those metrics in kind of assessing where you are in this cycle? I wanna follow up on that.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
Tim, I'm gonna pick this one up. Thanks so much. Great question, always. If you go back to our investor day, I think we did talk about the size of the TAM, maybe not so much on the quarterly calls. When we look outside of China, it's about 190 million households for high-speed data for our architecture. That is a TAM reference for us. To your question about how far along, I think as Patrick laid out, we're at about the 10% mark for DOCSIS 3.1.
As we laid out in September, you have a DOCSIS 4.0 wave that is coming up, and then you also have a fiber wave and then multiple speeds of fiber from that. We see ourselves still as very, in very early, exciting days here, Tim, and look forward to your follow-up question.
Tim Savageaux (Senior Research Analyst)
Specifically with your largest customer, they had talked about basically being at a 20% kind of, you know, complete with the upgrade of the footprint by year-end and moving over 30% by the end of the year, this year, which still seems like a long way to go. You know, does that represent is that similar to the cadence that you've seen, you know, say, last year? Does that represent an acceleration? You know, it seems with those type of metrics, you know, obviously, Charter's trying to do this a lot faster. I guess we'll see about that. You know, you've it seems like you've still got a ways to go with Comcast in particular, even though they've been going for a while. Any color on that front would be appreciated.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
Look, I mean, I think we're fortunate, we're all fortunate that Comcast has been pretty open at recent industry conferences, et cetera, in talking about their progress and their plans. I think we don't really have anything more to add to that. Their plans, I think, have laid out, that they've talked about publicly, have laid out their multi-year ambitions and both their continuing commitment to what they're doing and indeed to the fact that they still have a ways to go. We're just fortunate to be along working with them as a partner, and we've been at it for several years, as you know, with them.
Indeed, we see a pretty bright and exciting future around the current waves of technology and then coming waves of technology.
Tim Savageaux (Senior Research Analyst)
Great. If I could just sneak one more in quickly. I mean, you seem to imply in your commentary that, you know, as was the case last quarter, your guidance for broadband for this year is, you know, overwhelmingly, I don't know what the right word is, completely a function of your current customer base, and that, you know, as well as the backlog commentary shifting from 80% to majority. I just have to say, you expect the, you know, the big new orders that you got on the broadband side in Q1 to ship, you know, principally into 2024. Is that fair to say?
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
I mean, as we said, the backlog is still majority within 12 months. It is important to remember that while there's much discussion about the supply chain improving, we are still, in general, dealing with 12-month lead times and commitment requirements. That's something that our customers are cognizant of and working with us on. Indeed, order activity right now, it doesn't need really to be more than 12 months, but it reflects in general a 12-month view, which indeed does bring us into 2024. Coming back to the first part of your question, yes, 2023 predominantly existing customers. We see new customers really all the time kind of coming on and slowly beginning to ramp.
With that caveat to 2023, the best way to think about it is predominantly existing customers, and we really see material impact from new customers in 2024.
Tim Savageaux (Senior Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
All right. Thank you, Tim.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of George Notter of Jefferies. Your question please, George.
George Notter (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Communications Equipment)
Hi, guys. Thanks a lot. I guess I wanted to, if I go back to a conversation I think we had in the past, it was about, you know, how the sort of vendor ecosystem for optical nodes, you know, had kind of taken a step back. Cisco, of course, you know, more or less exited the node market. You know, as a result, there was a period of time there where Harmonic was getting more share than you guys anticipated, and I know it was diluting margins. If I, you know, if I come back to, you know, the environment currently, where do you think you guys are in terms of node market share? Do you think you guys could have a third of the market, a half, two thirds?
I mean, what kind of share do you think is reasonable in general for the company?
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
We believe and it's consistent with I think it's the Dell'Oro Group that tracks this. Let's focus specifically on the distributed access nodes, George, which is where we solely where we participate. We think we're in the neighborhood of about 70% of the DAA nodes that have been deployed to date. Our multi-year or 2025 model that we presented our Analyst Day envisions this percentage dropping somewhat, but perhaps closer to 50% than the than maybe the 30% that we might have discussed with you, I don't know, a year or 18 months ago. In short, we've been pleasantly surprised by the success that we've had.
We've built a great product. It's not just that it's tied to our cloud-native core from a power consumption, from a capability, from a throughput point of view, from being able to house both the DOCSIS and the fiber elements. Number of reasons, our node turns out to be extraordinarily competitive. We expect it will continue to be that way. Perhaps 70% market share is a bit lofty, hence our multi-year view that it comes down. We're increasingly confident that we'll be able to maintain a very healthy market share.
George Notter (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Communications Equipment)
Got it. That's great. Then as a follow-up, you know, I know from some of the metrics here, you guys have, I think you said 18.4 million homes that are now connected to CableOS. When I look at the second derivative of those numbers, you know, quarter-over-quarter, it's down a chunk relative to what you put up in December. I think this quarter you connected an additional 3.2 million homes. I think in December, that was 4.3 million homes. So, should I infer from that your CableOS revenue was down sequentially or, you know, should I not be, you know, kind of aligning revenue so tightly with homes connected as I think about you guys?
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
Yeah. I There's certainly a correlation over time, but quarter to quarter, a lot of different stuff happens in terms of shipment, deployment, et cetera. Particularly in the first quarter, where some geographies are affected by weather, George. I think I wouldn't read too much into a quarter to quarter fluctuation. I do think that our full year guidance and then the multi-year guidance is really the best indicator of the overall trend that we see around CableOS.
George Notter (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Communications Equipment)
Great. That helps. Thanks very much, guys. Appreciate it.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
All right. Thank you, George.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back over to management for closing remarks.
Patrick Harshman (CEO and President)
All right. Well, thank you all again, very much for joining us. We had a great first quarter. Second quarter is well underway. The rest of the year and the following years continue to look very positive. We're excited about our business, excited what we're doing, and we continue to appreciate your support. Look forward to our next opportunity to update and meet with you. Until then, have a good evening, everyone.
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.