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    HARMONIC (HLIT)

    Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

    Reported on May 1, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$9.31Last close (Apr 28, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$9.09Open (Apr 29, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.22(-2.36%)
    • Robust Video & SaaS Growth: Management highlighted sustained momentum in the video segment—with strong appliance wins and a 15% YoY increase in SaaS streaming revenue—which suggests continued profitable execution and expansion in high-margin areas.
    • Broadband & Fiber Expansion: Executives emphasized sizable customer wins in broadband and a growing momentum in fiber deployments, indicating diversified revenue streams and a strong foundation for future top-line growth.
    • Proactive Tariff Management & Liquidity: The team is actively exploring supply chain diversification, such as potential nearshoring, and has ample liquidity to mitigate tariff impacts (e.g., the ability to bring in inventory ahead of potential tariffs), which underscores operational resilience.
    • Tariff-Driven Revenue Uncertainty: Q&A discussions pointed to significant tariff uncertainty that may lead customers to delay or shift orders, thereby compromising near-term revenue visibility. [doc 5][doc 21]
    • Margin Pressure from Unfavorable Mix and Tariff Costs: Management noted that Q2 guidance reflects lower margins due to a less favorable mix of cOS licenses combined with an estimated $3 million tariff impact, which could weigh on profitability. [doc 15][doc 5]
    • Supply Chain Vulnerability: The company's heavy reliance on manufacturing in Malaysia for Broadband products exposes it to potential risks if tariff policies change or if there are supply chain disruptions. [doc 21]
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total net revenue

    +9% YoY (from $122.1M to $133.1M)

    Total net revenue increased due to strong contributions from both segments: broadband revenue rose to $84.9M and video revenue to $48.3M, reflecting effective customer deployment and growth strategies compared to the previous period.

    Broadband Segment Revenue

    – (Contributed $84.9M in Q1 2025)

    The broadband segment drove revenue growth through increased deployments and enhanced sales to existing customers, building on improvements seen in earlier periods and reinforcing a favorable product mix.

    Video Segment Revenue

    – (Contributed $48.3M in Q1 2025)

    The video segment maintained its contribution by benefiting from operational efficiency and an improved appliance/integration mix, compared to earlier periods where margins and product mix were less favorable.

    U.S. Revenue

    +8% YoY (from $82.0M to $88.861M)

    U.S. revenue growth was driven by increased broadband deployments and expanded customer activity in a mature domestic market, building upon prior successes in technology transitions and deployments.

    Revenue from Other Countries

    +11% YoY (from $40.1M to $44.274M)

    The growth in international revenue reflects a recovery and expansion in key emerging markets, improved product mix and operational execution compared to previous quarters.

    Net Income

    Turnaround from a loss of $8.089M to a profit of $5.94M

    The significant turnaround in net income is attributable to operational efficiency improvements, including better margin management, cost control, and a shift from prior periods' higher expenses and restructuring charges.

    Operating Income

    Shift from a loss of $9.526M to a profit of $10.127M

    Operating income improved markedly, benefiting from increased revenues, controlled costs, and better margin performance in both broadband and video segments—a reversal from the previous period's losses.

    Gross Profit

    +25% YoY (from $63.081M to $78.574M)

    The 25% increase in gross profit was driven by an improvement in gross margins—with broadband margins expanding by 540 bps and video by 190 bps—reflecting a more favorable product mix and operational efficiencies compared to earlier performance.

    Cost of Revenue

    -7.5% YoY (declining from $58.979M to $54.561M)

    A reduction in cost of revenue was achieved through productivity improvements and tighter cost management across production and operations, further enhancing overall profit margins relative to the prior period's performance.

    Operating Expenses

    -6% YoY (declining from $72.607M to $68.447M)

    The decrease in operating expenses resulted from effective cost control measures and the benefits from prior restructuring initiatives, enabling the company to streamline its spending while supporting revenue growth.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Broadband Revenue

    Q1 2025

    $80 million to $90 million

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Broadband Gross Margins

    Q1 2025

    52% to 54%

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Broadband Adjusted EBITDA

    Q1 2025

    $9 million to $15 million

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Video Revenue

    Q1 2025

    $40 million to $45 million

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Video Gross Margins

    Q1 2025

    64% to 65%

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Video Adjusted EBITDA

    Q1 2025

    $0 to $2 million

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Broadband Revenue
    Q1 2025
    $80 million to $90 million
    $84.9 million
    Met
    Video Revenue
    Q1 2025
    $40 million to $45 million
    $48.3 million
    Beat
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Video & SaaS Growth and Profitability

    Q4 2024 emphasized profitability improvements, strategic SaaS transformation, and steady revenue growth ( ); Q3 2024 highlighted return to profitability with expanding SaaS revenue ( ); Q2 2024 noted modest growth and margin improvements ( )

    Q1 2025 reported strong video revenue growth, improved gross margins, robust pipeline with AI-based monetization tools, and accelerated SaaS revenue growth ( )

    Increased growth momentum with enhanced profitability and focus on advanced monetization tools

    Broadband Revenue Dynamics and Expansion Challenges

    Q4 2024 showcased record revenue driven by DOCSIS 4.0 leadership and noted expected 2025 headwinds ( ); Q3 2024 reported significant revenue jumps with caution around deployment timing ( ); Q2 2024 demonstrated sequential gains despite competitive and supply chain pressures ( )

    Q1 2025 confirmed strong revenue performance with multiple fiber wins and customer additions, but also flagged near-term challenges from Unified DOCSIS 4.0 transition and tariff impacts ( )

    Robust top-line performance continues, yet near-term transitional challenges and tariff effects persist

    Unified DOCSIS 4.0 Transition

    Q4 2024 discussed deployment delays, technology integration challenges, and inventory provisions ( ); Q3 2024 detailed broad availability, customer reevaluation, and ecosystem dependency issues ( ); Q2 2024 underscored leadership with record shipments and emphasis on unified solutions ( )

    Q1 2025 reiterated progress with volume shipments and planned mid-year product introductions, while acknowledging revenue headwinds due to deployment timing and ecosystem dependencies ( )

    Long-term growth opportunity remains, with ongoing short-term deployment and integration challenges

    Tariff Uncertainty and Liquidity Management

    Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 focused on liquidity measures with increased credit facilities and share repurchases ( ); Q2 2024 emphasized strong liquidity via credit facility repurchases without major discussion of tariff concerns ( )

    Q1 2025 introduced a clear focus on tariff uncertainty affecting guidance and customer order timing, while maintaining strong liquidity and proactive inventory strategies ( )

    Emerging emphasis on tariff uncertainty coupled with stable liquidity management practices

    Supply Chain Vulnerability and Inventory Management

    Q4 2024 reported inventory provisions related to the DOCSIS transition and improvements in days on hand ( ); Q3 2024 highlighted proactive inventory reductions and noted amplifier dependency risks ( ); Q2 2024 discussed inventory adjustments tied to evolving customer transitions ( )

    Q1 2025 addressed heightened supply chain vulnerability due to tariff exposure and emphasized proactive inventory management with improved DSO and lower inventory levels ( )

    Ongoing inventory optimization continues with added focus on mitigating tariff-related supply chain risks

    Customer Concentration Risk

    Q4 2024 noted heavy reliance on Comcast (43%) and Charter (24%) with efforts to diversify via Rest of World wins ( ); Q3 2024 revealed top-two customers (Comcast 51%, Charter 18%) dominating revenue ( ); Q2 2024 disclosed Comcast at 48% while mentioning diversification strategies ( )

    Q1 2025 disclosed Comcast at 34% and Charter at 12%, indicating continued concentration but with slightly lower percentages and ongoing diversification efforts ( )

    High concentration risk persists, though recent figures suggest modest improvements with active diversification measures

    International and Rest of World Expansion

    Q4 2024 highlighted over 50% revenue growth in Rest of World regions and multiple international wins ( ); Q3 2024 focused on expanding the customer base with new fiber deals and an open ONU strategy to disrupt traditional ecosystems ( ); Q2 2024 recorded significant international wins including a Tier-1 Latin American operator and key fiber initiatives ( )

    Q1 2025 reported strong momentum with new broadband customer wins, record fiber deals, and a key Tier-1 Latin American expansion, reinforcing international growth ( )

    Consistent, robust international expansion with continued new wins and higher revenue momentum outside domestic markets

    1. Tariff Impact
      Q: What’s driving second half uncertainty?
      A: Management explained that tariff changes and related macro uncertainties are the primary cause of hesitancy in full-year guidance, even though fundamentals remain strong.

    2. Broadband Margins
      Q: Why will Q2 margins drop?
      A: They noted that margins in Q2 will be impacted by a lower mix of cOS licenses and an estimated $3 million tariff adjustment, making margins lower than Q1.

    3. Inventory Strategy
      Q: Consider buying ahead to beat tariffs?
      A: Management is evaluating options to bring in inventory sooner, leveraging strong liquidity to mitigate potential tariff impacts if they increase.

    4. Fiber Revenue
      Q: When does fiber become material?
      A: Although not broken out separately, management described the fiber business as already sizable with major customer wins contributing material revenue.

    5. Manufacturing Options
      Q: Diversify manufacturing to reduce tariff risk?
      A: They are preliminarily exploring nearshoring options, such as moving production closer to home, pending final outcomes on tariff policies.

    6. Customer Spending
      Q: Are major customers reducing spending?
      A: Management observed no change in spending behavior among their largest U.S. customers, maintaining steady demand despite uncertainties.

    7. Unified DOCSIS Delay
      Q: Update on DOCSIS amplifier availability?
      A: They stated that there is no change from their initial expectations regarding amplifier availability for Unified DOCSIS deployments.

    8. Broadband Order Book
      Q: Is broadband ramp still intact?
      A: While caution is evident in guidance, the underlying broadband order book and customer backlogs support a continued, though prudent, ramp.

    9. Appliance Refresh
      Q: How’s the appliance refresh cycle?
      A: Management expects the traditional appliance refresh cycle to continue steadily, driven by upgrades for higher densities and improved features.

    10. SaaS Performance
      Q: Why did SaaS dip this quarter?
      A: They attributed the slight drop to seasonal factors, noting that year-over-year growth remains robust and midyear contributions from partnerships are anticipated.

    Research analysts covering HARMONIC.