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    HARMONIC (HLIT)

    Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jul 29, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$9.14Last close (Jul 28, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$7.85Open (Jul 29, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-1.29(-14.11%)
    • Diversified revenue base: Management highlighted that excluding major customers like Comcast and Charter, the rest of world revenue is stronger than 50% of total company revenue, indicating a healthy diversification that can support future growth.
    • Robust unified DOCSIS 4.0 progress: Executives noted significant advancement with the unified DOCSIS 4.0 platform, including active lab trials and planned early shipments, signaling an accelerating upgrade cycle and energy in broadband innovation.
    • Effective tariff mitigation: Despite potential tariff pressures, management demonstrated that the actual impact has been limited to less than $1,000,000 in broadband, reflecting proactive supply chain and cost management that preserves margins.
    • Tariff and Supply Chain Risk: Concerns remain over escalating tariffs—especially in regions like Malaysia where rates could reach 25%—which may eventually impact margins if exemptions or rates change further.
    • Customer Concentration and CAPEX Timing: Heavy reliance on a few key customers (e.g., Comcast at 39% of revenue and Charter delaying CAPEX) poses a risk, as any shift in their investment timing could negatively affect the revenue mix.
    • Deployment Uncertainties: The lag between inventory shipments and actual network deployments, along with challenges in ramping up new technology like Unified DOCSIS 4, creates uncertainty on the timing and sustainability of future revenue gains.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Broadband Revenue

    Q3 2025

    $75 million to $85 million

    $75,000,000 to $85,000,000

    no change

    Broadband Gross Margin

    Q3 2025

    44% to 45%

    45% to 46%

    raised

    Broadband Adjusted EBITDA

    Q3 2025

    $2 million to $6 million

    $5,000,000 to $9,000,000

    raised

    Broadband Tariff Impact

    Q3 2025

    Approximately $3 million

    Estimated to be less than $1,000,000

    lowered

    Video Revenue

    Q3 2025

    $45 million to $50 million

    $45,000,000 to $50,000,000

    no change

    Video Gross Margin

    Q3 2025

    63% to 64%

    65% to 67%

    raised

    Video Adjusted EBITDA

    Q3 2025

    $2 million to $4 million

    $2,000,000 to $5,000,000

    raised

    EPS

    Q3 2025

    $0.00 to $0.04

    $0.02 to $0.07

    raised

    Non-GAAP Tax Rate

    Q3 2025

    20%

    21%

    raised

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Unified DOCSIS 4.0 Transition & Broadband Innovation

    Described in Q1 2025 with volume shipments, 13‑Gbps demo and deployment headwinds ( ), in Q4 2024 with industry‐wide transition challenges and order reductions ( ), and in Q3 2024 with ecosystem integration requirements and customer delay signals ( )

    Emphasized progress toward real‑world deployment with volume shipments, early lab testing for the unified RF front‑end, a 14‑Gbps milestone, and new customer wins ( )

    Positive progression – Earlier periods raised concerns over timing and ecosystem readiness; now there is stronger technical validation and early deployment momentum.

    Tariff Impacts and Supply Chain Risks

    Q1 2025 projected a worst‑case $3 million impact with tariff‑related uncertainties and supply chain exposures ( ); no specific discussion in Q4 2024 or Q3 2024

    Q2 2025 revealed actual tariff impact was less than $1 million, with effective operational and supply chain adjustments in place ( )

    Improved mitigation – Earlier concerns have eased as actual impacts are much lower and supply chain management has proven effective.

    Customer Concentration and CAPEX Timing Risks

    Q1 2025 noted significant reliance on Comcast (34%) and Charter (12%) with caution in guidance ( ); Q4 2024 showed higher concentration with Comcast (43%) and Charter (24%) and inventory order reductions ( ); Q3 2024 acknowledged top‐two customer dominance but expected gradual diversification ( )

    Q2 2025 showed Comcast remains dominant (39%) while Charter fell from previous prominence and rest‑of‑world growth helped diversify revenue; CAPEX shifts (e.g. Charter’s $500m push to 2026) remain a near‑term headwind ( )

    Mixed outlook – While customer concentration remains high, there is a gradual diversification with geographic gains; CAPEX timing uncertainties continue but are expected to rebound in 2026.

    Diversified Revenue Base (Broadband, Fiber Expansion, Geographic Growth)

    Q1 2025 highlighted broadband revenue growth ($84.9m), record fiber wins, and strong rest‑of‑world bookings ( ); Q4 2024 reported record broadband revenue ($171m) and significant rest‑of‑world gains ( ); Q3 2024 emphasized robust broadband performance and expanded fiber deals ( )

    Q2 2025 delivered record fiber revenue, introduced new products (Sistar), reported solid broadband revenue ($86.9m) with strong rest‑of‑world performance and multiple new customer wins ( )

    Consistent diversification – Across periods the company focuses on broadening its customer base and geographic reach, with Q2 2025 building on fiber innovation to further diversify revenue.

    Video and SaaS Revenue Growth in High‑Margin Segments

    Q1 2025 reported Video revenue of $48.3m and SaaS streaming at $14.8m with notable margin expansion ( ); Q4 2024 mentioned Video revenue of $51.1m and SaaS at $15.1m with strong margin performance ( ); Q3 2024 revealed a healthy mix with Video revenue around $50.4m and SaaS streaming growing significantly ( )

    Q2 2025 delivered Video segment revenue of $51.1m (11.6% YoY increase) and record SaaS streaming revenue of $15.4m (10.1% YoY growth) with high gross margins (67% for Video) ( )

    Stable with incremental gains – High‑margin segments show steady or slightly improved revenue and margin performance across periods, reflecting operational efficiency and growth in streaming services.

    Margin Dynamics: Profitability Improvements vs. Pressure

    Q1 2025 showed marked gross margin increases across segments (total gross margin of 59.4%, broadband at 55.5%, video at 66.4%) despite tariff anticipation ( ); Q4 2024 recorded strong margin improvements (total 56.1%, broadband 52.7%, video 67.4%) but noted inventory provisions; Q3 2024 noted improvements driven by product mix yet cautioned on short‑term broadband challenges ( )

    Q2 2025 reported overall gross margin at 54.1% (up 100bps YoY) and Video margin improvement (67% vs down 110bps in broadband margin due to tariffs managed better than expected) ( )

    Balanced outcome – Consistent improvements in video and overall margins are observed, although broadband experiences pressure; Q2 2025 benefits from lower-than‐expected tariff impact and refined product mix.

    Inventory Management and Technological Transition Risks

    Q1 2025 reported a slight decrease in inventory (-$1.9m) with strong cash flow aiding flexibility ( ); Q4 2024 noted a $5m inventory provision and a significant drop in days inventory on hand (to 59 days) due to transition issues ( ); Q3 2024 discussed inventory reductions and plans to rebuild inventory in Q4 amid transition delays ( )

    Q2 2025 saw a modest inventory increase (+$9.1m) with days inventory on hand slightly improved (101 days) to support broadband growth; continued focus on Unified DOCSIS 4.0 transition risks with evolving lab testing and field trials ( )

    Managed cautiously – Inventory levels are being actively managed to support growth and mitigate tariff and transition risks; while technological transition risks persist, proactive measures are in place with clearer progress in Q2 2025.

    Ecosystem Dependencies and Component Supply Challenges

    Q1 2025 mentioned dependency on amplifier availability and supply chain diversification options ( ); Q4 2024 focused on amplifier integration challenges and order push‑outs due to ecosystem dependencies ( ); Q3 2024 noted integration delays with Unified RF front‑end and dependency on full‑duplex amplifier availability affecting timing ( )

    Q2 2025 highlighted continued ecosystem dependencies (e.g. requirement for the unified RF front‑end) but noted that earlier amplifier challenges have been resolved, smoothing component supply issues ( )

    Easing concerns – While ecosystem dependencies remain inherent to the transition, improvements in key component availability (amplifiers) in Q2 2025 indicate progress, even as other integration challenges persist.

    Deployment and Order Timing Uncertainties

    Q1 2025 flagged uncertainties driven by tariffs and Unified DOCSIS 4.0 deployment delays ( ); Q4 2024 discussed deployment timing delays due to ecosystem dependencies and inventory provisions, with customer order timing affected by transition uncertainties ( ); Q3 2024 emphasized short‑term delays from deployment timing shifts and order inventory drawdowns ( )

    Q2 2025 continued to experience a lag between shipments and deployments with order timing uncertainties noted, but a steady pipeline and increased connected modem numbers provided reassurance about near‑term gradual increases ( )

    Consistent caution – Deployment and order timing uncertainties persist across periods, largely due to transition and ecosystem challenges; however, Q2 2025 shows a steady pipeline and some early signs of normalization in deployment lags.

    Research analysts covering HARMONIC.