Hallador Energy Company - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Executive Summary

• Hallador delivered a decisive beat: revenue rose 40% YoY to $146.8M and diluted EPS was $0.55, far ahead of S&P Global consensus of $110.9M revenue and $0.06 EPS; Adjusted EBITDA increased to $24.9M. Drivers were stronger summer power pricing, higher dispatch after maintenance, and increased coal shipments. Q3 2025 consensus values marked with asterisks are from S&P Global estimates: revenue $110.9M*, EPS $0.06*, EBITDA $9.5M* (see Estimates Context below).
• Management filed an application under MISO’s Expedited Resource Addition Study (ERAS) to add 525 MW of gas generation at Merom (target online 4Q28), citing accelerating demand for accredited capacity from data centers and utilities as a multi‑year growth catalyst.
• Liquidity improved to $46.4M and bank debt was stable at $44.0M; operating cash flow was $23.2M, helping fund $19.5M of Q3 capex; contracted third‑party forward sales totaled $921.7M through 2029, with contracted power revenue of $571.7M (energy + capacity) at quarter‑end.
• Near‑term caution: management tempered expectations, indicating Q4 should resemble Q4 2024 unless extreme cold boosts demand; focus remains on securing one or more long‑term agreements, evaluating M&A, and progressing refinancing ahead of 2026 maturities.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Strong operational quarter: “significant gains across all key financial metrics,” with revenue up 40% YoY to $146.8M, net income of $23.9M, and Adjusted EBITDA of $24.9M; OCF was $23.2M.
  • Power market tailwinds and execution: warmer summer, higher energy demand, and stronger natural gas prices supported pricing; both Merom units operated efficiently post‑maintenance, boosting dispatch and reducing inventories.
  • Strategic pipeline advances: ERAS filing for 525 MW at Merom plus “advanced discussions” with multiple counterparties (utilities and data center developers), with CEO citing accelerating demand for accredited capacity.

• What Went Wrong

  • Seasonality and outlook caution: management flagged that Q4 likely resembles Q4 2024 unless extreme cold emerges, implying Q3 strength may not repeat near‑term.
  • Transcript discrepancy on coal sales: the CFO remarks referenced $68.8M coal sales YoY increase, while the 8‑K shows Q3 third‑party coal sales at $51.3M; we anchor on the filed 8‑K/press release for accuracy.
  • Financing still pending: while discussions to refinance the credit facility are progressing, maturities cluster in 2026; timing and terms are not finalized, introducing some execution risk.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon.Thank you for attending Hallador Energy's Q3 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following our prepared remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this call will be recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sean Mansouri, the company's CIO. Please go ahead, Sean.

Sean Mansouri (CIO)

Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us to discuss our Q3 2025 results. With me today are President and CEO Brent Bilsland and CFO Todd Telesz. This afternoon, we released our Q3 2025 financial and operating results in a press release that is now on the Hallador Investor Relations website. Today, we will discuss those results as well as our perspective on current market conditions and our outlook. Following prepared remarks, we will open the call to answer your questions. Before we begin, a reminder that some of our remarks today may include forward-looking statements subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties, and assumptions contained in our filings from time to time with the SEC and are also reflected in today's press release.

While these forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to us, if one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or if our underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we projected or expected. In providing these remarks, Hallador has no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, unless required by law to do so. With the preliminaries out of the way, I'll turn the call over to President and CEO Brent Bilsland.

Brent Bilsland (President and CEO)

Thanks, Sean, and thank you, everyone, for joining us this afternoon. We are very pleased with our strong Q3 results, which reflect the continued momentum of our strategy and the operational resilience of our vertically integrated platform. During the quarter, we delivered significant Q3 year-over-year gains across key financial metrics, including revenue, which increased 40%, net income increased 14x, and adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, increased 1.6x. The current market signals for our product offerings are strong, and we believe that the robust interest in the types of long-term arrangements that we are currently evaluating justifies attempting to increase generation at our Merom site.

In connection with these strong signals, on November 3rd, we took a meaningful step in our strategy to grow our generation portfolio by submitting an application to the MISO Expedited Resource Interconnection Service, or ERIS program, seeking to add an additional 525 MW of gas generation at our Merom site. While the application is only a first step in our growth process and does not guarantee that we will be able to add the full load or any additional generation as part of ERIS, we're excited to participate in the opportunity and for what it could mean to the future of Hallador. Favorable summer weather patterns, coupled with higher energy demand and elevated natural gas prices, created a supportive energy pricing environment that drove strong revenue, more than a 29% year-over-year increase for our Hallador Power subsidiary.

Following the completion of Unit 2's annual maintenance outage in early July, both units operated very well through the quarter, resulting in higher dispatch levels and improved reliability across the system. These conditions also provided a tailwind for our coal operations, where solid production up 18%, increased shipments, and consistent operating costs contributed to our strong results, which demonstrated the operating leverage inherent in our coal operations. The favorable power markets led to higher dispatch at both Merom and our customer plants, which boosted coal shipments and helped reduce fuel inventories at both our power plant and coal mine. During the quarter, we also executed a $20 million prepaid forward power sales contract, with delivery scheduled through the first half of 2027. As we have stated in the past, these types of sales are a key component of our commercial strategy, providing immediate liquidity while monetizing forward pricing.

The pre-paid proceeds are being used to support ongoing operations and capital investment across the business. As the quarter progressed, we saw accelerating interest in our capacity and energy offerings from both data center developers and load-serving entities seeking access to the limited inventory of large-scale dispatchable energy available in the coming decade. We are in advanced discussions on multiple fronts and remain encouraged about achieving positive progress towards an agreement by early 2026. Each potential counterparty brings unique value creation opportunities and challenges, but all share a recognition of the importance of securing reliable, accredited capacity. Many of the opportunities that we are evaluating are long duration, meaning a decade or more in length, and would likely consume the majority of the plant's energy output and accredited capacity at favorable prices.

The evolving energy landscape, driven by rapid data center growth, rising demand from load-serving entities, and a more supportive regulatory environment, is creating opportunities that simply did not exist when we began our RFP process last year. We recognize that these opportunities are time-sensitive, and our team remains focused on securing an agreement that maximizes value for Hallador and our shareholders. While we continue to view an agreement with a load-serving entity as the more straight-forward and faster path to execution, we're also seeing a meaningful process on the data center side, particularly with developers that have proactively secured critical infrastructure such as step-down transformers, switchgear, and other site-level equipment. From a broader market perspective, we continue to see the structural imbalance created by the ongoing retirement of dispatchable generators like coal in favor of intermittent renewables such as wind and solar.

This shift has increased the scarcity and value of reliable baseload generation. We believe this environment enhances the long-term value of our Merom Power Plant, its leverageable infrastructure, and the critical role that the site plays in supporting grid stability. As a result, in addition to our efforts to participate in the ERIS program, we continue to evaluate strategic opportunities to acquire additional dispatchable generation assets and infrastructure that could help diversify our portfolio, add scale, and enhance our growth trajectory. We also continue to assess the potential to add natural gas co-firing capabilities to our existing generation facilities at Merom. A dual-fuel configuration could enhance resiliency during periods of limited gas availability while allowing us to continue leveraging the competitive advantage of our own fuel supply through Sunrise Coal.

We are proceeding thoughtfully given the regulatory and consumer considerations that will determine the ultimate structure and timing of this type of opportunity. Operationally, Hallador Power delivered 1.6 million M-W-Hs during the Q3 of 2025 at an average sales price of $49.29 per M-W-H, compared to 1.2 million M-W-H at $47.55 per M-W-H during the same period in 2024. As indicated in our forward sales position, we are transitioning into a period of higher energy and capacity pricing above our historical rates as demand for reliable baseload power continues to grow. On the coal side of our business, operational consistency and increased shipments helped reduce inventories while maintaining adequate fuel supply to support higher potential dispatch levels during the upcoming winter season.

As of now, we expect to produce approximately 3.8 million tons of coal in 2025, having produced 3.1 million tons through the first nine months from our Oaktown mining complex. We also continue to strategically supplement our internal coal production with low-cost third-party purchases, providing flexibility to respond quickly to shifts in demand and pricing. This balanced approach enables us to optimize fuel costs at Merom while maintaining optionality to capture upside in coal markets. The transformation of Hallador from a commodity-focused coal producer to a vertically integrated independent power producer is evident in our results. We are leveraging the energy transition to capture the expanding margins of the power markets and the growing demand for reliable electricity.

If we are able to successfully navigate the associated challenges with building new generation, we believe that the ERIS program provides an opportunity for meaningful organic growth in a relatively accelerated timeframe as compared with traditional builds. With the potential to add roughly 50% of additional generation capacity to the Hallador fleet, we are excited by the unique opportunity this presents. The continued influx of interest from data centers and load-serving entities underscores the value of our platform, and we believe Hallador is well-positioned to take advantage of these opportunities for step-function growth and cash flow generation in the years to come. I will now pass the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, Todd Telesz, to take you through our financial results. Todd?

Todd Telesz (CFO)

Thank you, Brent, and good afternoon, everyone. Jumping right into our Q3 results, on a segment basis, electric sales for the Q3 increased 29% to $93.2 million, compared to $72.1 million in the prior-year-period, while coal sales increased 42% to $68.8 million for the Q3, compared to $48.3 million in the prior-year-period. Electric sales in Q3 benefited from traditional summer weather patterns, increased energy demand, and higher natural gas prices, which together create a supportive energy pricing environment. The increase in coal sales during the Q3 was driven by increased shipments to customers supported by favorable power markets that led to higher dispatch levels at both Merom and our customers' power plants. On a consolidated basis, total operating revenue increased 40% to $146.8 million for the Q3, compared to $105.2 million in the prior-year-period.

Net income for the Q3 increased substantially to $23.9 million, compared to $1.6 million in the prior-year-period. Operating cash flow for the Q3 increased to $23.2 million, compared to cash used of $12.9 million in the prior-year-period, with the increase primarily driven by the aforementioned favorable energy pricing environment, improved coal production efficiencies, and the $20 million pre-paid forward power sales contract executed in Q3 2025. Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, which is reconciled in our earnings press release issued earlier today, increased 1.6x to $24.9 million for the Q3, compared to $9.6 million in the prior-year-period. We invested $19.6 million in capital expenditures during the Q3 of 2025, compared to $11.6 million in the year ago period, bringing our total 2025 year-to-date CapEx to $44.3 million.

As of September 30, 2025, our forward energy and capacity sales position was $571.7 million, compared to $619.7 million at the end of Q2 and $685.7 million at December 31, 2024. When combined with our third-party forward coal sales of $350 million, as well as intercompany sales to Merom, our total forward sales book as of September 30, 2025, was approximately $1.3 billion. Our total bank debt remains relatively unchanged and was $44 million at September 30, 2025, compared to $45 million at June 30, 2025, and $44 million at December 31, 2024. Total liquidity at September 30, 2025, was $46.4 million, compared to $42 million at June 30, 2025, and $37.8 million at December 31, 2024. We are currently in discussions with members of our existing bank group and other potential lenders to refinance our credit agreement.

Our evolving credit facility matures in August 2026, and our term loan matures in March 2026, with the remaining balances scheduled for repayment in the Q1 of that year using restricted cash. While we have not yet finalized terms, we are making progress towards refinancing on market-based terms and conditions consistent with our existing facility. Of course, as with any financing, there can be no assurance of timing or final terms and conditions, but we remain confident in our ability to secure an arrangement that supports our ongoing liquidity and growth initiatives. This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now open up for questions from those participating on the call. Operator, back to you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. To remove yourself from the queue, you may press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Jeff Gramp of Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open, Jeff.

Jeff Gramp (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Afternoon, guys.

Hey, Jeff.

Hey, Brent. On the potential capacity expansion you guys are looking at now, what are the main milestones or key long lead items we should think about to track over the next, I don't know, couple quarters, six to 12 months, to kind of assess the progression there, the potential? Thanks.

Brent Bilsland (President and CEO)

Yeah. MISO created this expedited process to help generation that meets the requirements, which basically has the potential or likelihood to actually be built, get through the queue process in a timely fashion versus the traditional process. We filed an application that we feel complies with those timelines. They will come back later this month and tell us if our application is complete in their eyes and give us the time to cure anything that needs further clarification. They are, at various times of the year, announcing which applications they are picking up to review. The ERIS program only allowed for 50 total applications. I think back in August, they came out and said they were reviewing nine of those applications. I think here in November, they have come out and said they are doing another 15 or so.

It could be six months or so before they actually pick ours up. That is something that we will keep an eye on and certainly update the market at our quarterly filings. In the meantime, we are working on securing the equipment that we filed to build. That is what we are working on for now.

Jeff Gramp (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Perfect. That's really helpful. For my follow-up, you guys obviously had a super strong quarter in Q3. Can you touch on what you've seen in the first 40-ish days of Q4, just trying to get a sense of if some of these dynamics have continued or how we should think about Q4 expectations as we look to wrap up the year?

Brent Bilsland (President and CEO)

Yeah. No, Q3 was an exceptional quarter for us. A lot of things went right. We had units coming out of outage. We had really warm weather providing strong cooling demand in September. And coal shipments were just, quite frankly, exceptional. We do not expect that here in Q4. We expect Q4 to look very much like Q4 of 2024 unless we just see some extreme cold weather show up in December or something like that. We do not see much of a catalyst to really drive a performance like Q3.

Jeff Gramp (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful. I'll hop back in the queue. Thanks.

Brent Bilsland (President and CEO)

Thank you, Jeff.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Key of Texas Capital. Please go ahead, Matthew.

Matthew Key (Research Analyst)

Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I was wondering if you could provide any initial color on the economics of the 525 MW expansion, just like an initial read on CapEx and any potential impact it could have on operating costs long-term.

Brent Bilsland (President and CEO)

Yeah. We are still negotiating the equipment for that. Until we have those economics secured, we're not really releasing any information as far as the overall economics. We are encouraged by what we see through our long-term negotiations on PPAs about the robustness of volume and pricing and number of bidders. The market is just sending strong signals that it needs more capacity. That is ultimately what led us to the decision to file. As we progress through this process over the next three years, we'll continue to update all of our investors on what that project's going to look like. We are excited about the opportunities.

We've told investors, when you're a smaller company like ourselves, as far as being able to grow your production relatively quickly, and we think this project potentially does that with the potential to increase our generation by 50%.

Matthew Key (Research Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful. Just a quick macro question for me. In late September, the Trump administration announced, I think it was $625 million in funding directed at coal-fired power generation in the U.S. What impact, if any, do you think they'll have on the industry? Could Hallador potentially be a recipient of any of that funding?

Brent Bilsland (President and CEO)

Yeah. I mean, look, I think anytime the government is handing out money, that's helpful to the industry. I think that Hallador could have some projects that qualify for grants out of that basket of money. We'll just have to see. They made an announcement, and then we figure the rules out as we go. We're still trying to navigate that process and see how much of that we can secure for Hallador.

Matthew Key (Research Analyst)

Great. Appreciate the time, and best of luck moving forward.

Brent Bilsland (President and CEO)

Thank you, Matt.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jake Fekelski of A.G.P. Please go ahead, Jake.

Jake Fekelski (Managing Director and Head of Metals and Mining Research)

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question.

Brent Bilsland (President and CEO)

Yeah, no problem.

Jake Fekelski (Managing Director and Head of Metals and Mining Research)

Just on the M&A front, you mentioned you're always looking. I'm just curious if you're seeing plug-and-play type capacity additions out there, or are you more so looking at assets that have been starved of capital and in need of investment? I guess any color if you have a preference between the two.

Brent Bilsland (President and CEO)

I think typically you're probably going to find us play in the coal space. That seems to be our niche, our expertise. Traditionally, there's been less competition there. That is typically where we like to focus our attention. That said, those types of transactions are very bespoke, and they take more time. I come back to the Merom purchase. I mean, that took us NDA to closing. Signing the NDA to closing was 33 months. It was not a small amount of work. That said, it ended up being a tremendous value to the company. Those are the type of circumstances that we're looking for. I do not think we'll find a purchase price that low again, but the revenue to offset that has increased. We just have to take the opportunities as they come.

We are encouraged by some of the conversations that we're having, and we'll see if they develop.

Jake Fekelski (Managing Director and Head of Metals and Mining Research)

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. That's all for me. Congrats on the quarter.

Brent Bilsland (President and CEO)

Thank you, Jake.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nick Giles of B. Riley Securities. Your line is open, Nick.

Nick Giles (Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, thanks, Operator. Good evening, everyone. Guys, congrats on a really nice quarter here. Brent, in your prepared remarks, you noted advanced discussions with multiple parties. Would you look to re-enter into exclusivity? Would you really be focused on just announcing a definitive agreement at this point? Last quarter, you spoke to utilities entering the mix. Curious for any updated commentary around that, if a utility might be your preference or if you're still kind of in the mix with Hyperscalers as well. Thanks.

Brent Bilsland (President and CEO)

We're talking to both parties. I agree what's changed is the utility interest has increased. Quite frankly, everybody's interest has increased. I think that's due in large part, particularly on the developer side, as their projects start to get through permitting. Once they can get the land permitted and projects zoned for data center buildouts, they start focusing their attention on the next step, which is energy. We're seeing several of those projects kind of make it through those stages and now turn their attentions on Hallador because, again, as we've said before, we think we're one of the few places to get accredited capacity in the state of Indiana or MISO Zone 6, said another way. That's what's transpired. It's definitely piqued the interest here in the last several months.

Far more than interest, I mean, we are negotiating with several parties, and we're trying to get to a definitive agreement with all of those. They're on probably more of a time constraint than we are. They're trying to get a project to the point where it can be developed as quickly as possible. I think we're in a good spot. We're very encouraged by the process and how it's going and what we see. So much so that that led us ultimately to the decision to try to grow our generation by 50% through the ERIS process.

Nick Giles (Senior Research Analyst)

Brent, that's helpful. Maybe switching gears, you executed a five-month prepaid forward for $20 million in the quarter. How much more room do you have in your forward book until you feel like you need to preserve the remaining capacity for a long-term agreement? Just curious on that in the quarters ahead.

Brent Bilsland (President and CEO)

That was energy, right? Primarily. With the market, it is really sending the strongest signals forward to accredited capacity. You see a lot of articles about the world running out of energy. I disagree with that. The world has run out of accredited capacity. The sale we really made was for the 2027 timeframe, which we had not done much out there, and it was really for a relatively small volume.

Nick Giles (Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. Maybe just one more if I could. Is it fair to assume that this 525 MW expansion could be a part of any long-term agreement? Or maybe if not initially, could you see that potential customer having a rofer on the capacity? Or where does this ultimately fit in, if at all?

Brent Bilsland (President and CEO)

It will be interesting to see. I mean, we just went public about the project an hour ago. It is not something we have discussed with other parties. I mean, we just made the filing a week ago. This is all relatively new. We wanted—that is part of the reason we wanted to publicly announce—but when you make a filing like that, you are never really quite sure when that will become public. We wanted to tell the market at the same time. I think it will be part of our conversations going forward. We will see where that leads.

Nick Giles (Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. Brent and team, appreciate the update and continue to best of luck.

Brent Bilsland (President and CEO)

Thank you, Nick.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Brent Bilsland for closing remarks. Sir.

Brent Bilsland (President and CEO)

Yes. I want to thank everybody for joining us today and your continued interest in Hallador and just hope that we've been able to articulate and express our high level of excitement as we've had a great quarter, and we're excited about the opportunities that are in front of us. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.