RM
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered broad-based strength: total net revenues rose 50% YoY to $927M, GAAP diluted EPS increased 106% YoY to $0.37, and net income grew 114% YoY to $336M .
- Results beat Wall Street consensus: revenue exceeded S&P Global consensus by ~$9.8M (1.1%)* and Primary EPS beat by ~$0.12*; GAAP diluted EPS of $0.37 contrasted with Primary EPS actual of ~$0.44*, reflecting non-GAAP normalization .
- Record customer engagement and scale: Net Deposits hit $18.0B; Gold subscribers reached 3.2M; options contracts set a quarterly record at 500M; Total Platform Assets reached $221B .
- Strategic catalysts: board increased share repurchase authorization by $500M to $1.5B (remaining ~$833M to execute over ~2 years), and management highlighted rapid product velocity (Legend, futures, prediction markets) plus Banking, Strategies, and Cortex initiatives .
- FY25 expense outlook updated to include TradePMR costs: Adjusted OpEx + SBC guided to $2.085B–$2.185B (vs. prior $2.0B–$2.1B), excluding Bitstamp costs and credit losses .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- “We significantly accelerated product innovation… Robinhood Strategies, Banking, and Cortex,” driving “record-breaking net deposits, Robinhood Gold subscriptions, and options volume” (Vlad Tenev) .
- Transaction-based revenues surged 77% YoY to $583M, led by crypto $252M (+100%), options $240M (+56%), and equities $56M (+44%) .
- Adjusted EBITDA rose 90% YoY to $470M and margin expanded to 51% (from 40% a year ago), signaling strong operating leverage .
What Went Wrong
- Sequential revenue fell 9% vs. Q4 2024 ($1.014B to $927M), largely reflecting lower crypto activity quarter-over-quarter .
- Provision for credit losses increased to $24M (vs. $19M in Q4), with brokerage-related losses (fraud) contributing to the step-up (team engaged) .
- GAAP operating expenses rose 22% QoQ to $557M; marketing and G&A both expanded sequentially, consistent with growth investments and strategic initiatives .
Financial Results
Consolidated P&L and Margins
Revenue Components
KPIs and Operating Metrics
Note: Total Platform Assets (TPA) introduced in Q1 2025 includes AUC plus $41B of RIAs’ assets managed on TradePMR’s platform not custodied by Robinhood .
Guidance Changes
Additional considerations:
- Management reiterated that outlook excludes provision for credit losses, Bitstamp costs, and potential significant regulatory matters .
- NII sensitivity: a 25 bps rate cut implies ~$50M headwind standalone; asset growth and trading provide offsets (no formal NII guidance) .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Customers have clearly responded — demonstrated by record-breaking net deposits, Robinhood Gold subscriptions, and options volume” (Vlad Tenev) .
- “Revenues grew 50% year-over-year and EPS more than doubled… adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 11 points” (Jason Warnick) .
- “Board… increased our share repurchase authorization by $500 million to $1.5 billion… remaining authorization now totals approximately $833 million” (Jason Warnick) .
- “Crypto… ~$260M in revenue… second highest quarter in recent years… we like to look at market share” (Vlad Tenev) .
- “April net deposits are around $6.5B… equities trading at a 4-year high… options near all-time high… crypto trading north of $8B” (Jason Warnick) .
Q&A Highlights
- Gold scaling: cardholders doubled to >200k; strong attach among new customers; banking slated for Q3 rollout as Gold-only product .
- Crypto take rates: sequentially improving; experimenting with tiered pricing for high-volume traders; April take rates similar to Q1 .
- Credit losses: delinquency/write-offs very low; Q1 step-up tied to brokerage fraud (non-margin); provisions expected to rise gradually as card rollout expands .
- Futures adoption: April volumes >4.5M contracts; behaviors incremental and enabled short positioning; futures on Legend planned .
- NII sensitivity: ~-$50M per 25 bps cut standalone; asset growth and trading offer natural hedge .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $927M actual vs $917.2M estimate* (beat ~1.1%); Primary EPS actual ~$0.44* vs $0.33 estimate* (beat ~35%)*. GAAP diluted EPS printed $0.37 .
- Prior trend: Q4 2024 revenue beat (~$1.014B actual vs ~$951.8M estimate*), and Primary EPS beat driven in part by a $369M deferred tax benefit in GAAP EPS; Q3 2024 revenue miss ($637M actual vs ~$658.2M estimate*) with Primary EPS beat* .
Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.
Implications:
- We expect sell-side models to raise FY25 revenue/EBITDA on sustained deposit growth, active trader engagement, and incremental products; some may moderate NII assumptions amid rate-cut sensitivity (-$50M per 25 bps) .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Strong beat-and-raise quarter anchored by diversified transaction revenue (crypto, options, equities) and disciplined cost control; operating leverage evident in 51% adjusted EBITDA margin .
- Deposit momentum continues into Q2 (April Net Deposits $6.8B), supporting interest-earning assets and securities lending revenue growth even as rates drift lower .
- Active trader franchise accelerating: Legend volumes largely incremental; futures/prediction markets scaling rapidly, enhancing resilience across market regimes .
- Strategic M&A and product expansion (TradePMR closed; Bitstamp mid-year target) broaden B2B/international footprint; FY25 expense guide updated to reflect TradePMR costs .
- Capital returns are a tangible support: buyback authorization increased to $1.5B with ~$833M remaining; management retains flexibility to accelerate repurchases .
- Watch mix effects: sequential revenue down from record Q4 on crypto normalization; options strength and equities volumes provide offsets; tiered crypto pricing experiments target higher-volume share .
- Near-term trading setup: catalysts include Banking (Q3), Cortex feature rollouts, and Bitstamp close; rate-cut sensitivities (~$50M per 25 bps on NII) balanced by trading tailwinds and asset growth .
Additional Notes
- Non-GAAP considerations: Starting Q1 2025, Adjusted OpEx and Adjusted OpEx + SBC exclude provision for credit losses (methodology change) .
- Q4 2024 GAAP EPS and margins benefited from a $369M deferred tax benefit and a $55M regulatory accrual reversal, inflating GAAP optics vs. underlying run-rate .
- April operating data corroborate continued engagement: equity notional +26% MoM; options ~flat; crypto -24% MoM; margin balances $8.4B .