Hormel Foods - Q2 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Hormel Foods Corporation second quarter earnings conference call. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If anyone has any difficulties during the conference, please press star zero for operator assistance at any time. I would now like to turn the conference over to David Dahlstrom, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

David Dahlstrom (Head of Investor Relations)

Good morning. Welcome to the Hormel Foods conference call for the second quarter of fiscal 2024. We released our results this morning before the market opened. A copy of the release can be found on our website, hormelfoods.com, under the investor section. On our call today is Jim Snee, Chairman of the Board, President, and Chief Executive Officer, Jacinth Smiley, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Deanna Brady, Executive Vice President of the Retail segment. Jim will review the company's second quarter results and give a perspective on the rest of fiscal 2024. Jacinth will provide detailed financial results and further commentary on our outlook. Deanna will join Jim and Jacinth for the Q&A portion of the call. The line will be open for questions following Jacinth's remarks. As a courtesy to the other analysts, please limit yourself to one question with one follow-up.

If you have additional questions, you are welcome to rejoin the queue. At the conclusion of this morning's call, a webcast replay will be posted to our website and archived for one year. Before we get started this morning, I need to reference the Safe Harbor statement. Some of the comments made today will be forward-looking, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed in or implied by the statements we will be making. Please refer to our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, which can be accessed at hormelfoods.com under the investor section. Additionally, please note the company uses non-GAAP results to provide investors with a better understanding of the company's operating performance on a consistent basis.

The presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. Non-GAAP figures adjust for the costs associated with the company's Transform and Modernize initiative and pork antitrust litigation settlements. These non-GAAP measures include adjusted earnings before income taxes and adjusted diluted net earnings per share. Discussion on non-GAAP information and reconciliations to the GAAP results are detailed in our press release, which can be accessed from our corporate or investor website. I will now turn the call over to Jim Snee.

Jim Snee (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. We delivered a strong first half of the year with consecutive quarters of better-than-expected earnings, a significant improvement in operating cash flows, food service strength, recovery in our international business, and stable volumes across our business. Importantly, we made further progress on our strategic initiatives, and we remain on track to deliver on our commitments to drive long-term shareholder returns and growth. We entered the year with a realistic and achievable path to improve our business over the next three years, and our first half performance demonstrates meaningful progress. We are driving savings, minimizing complexity, and reducing costs. As a result of this work, we delivered meaningful gross profit improvement in both the second quarter and the first half of the year. We are also capturing incremental value from our investments.

The best example of this is the momentum our team has generated for the Planters snack nuts business, which is responding positively to our brand building and innovation efforts. Taken together, we are pleased to report first half Adjusted Diluted Net Earnings Per Share in line with last year. This represents improvement compared to our expectations heading into the year, given the uncertain consumer environment and significant headwinds in our turkey business. Core to our success so far this year is strong execution against our six strategic priorities, which include driving growth for each of our business segments, executing our enterprise, entertaining and snacking vision, and continuing to Transform and Modernize our company. We delivered an excellent first half within food service, growing volume, net sales, and segment profit, mid-single digits, respectively.

The second quarter represented the fourth consecutive quarter our team achieved volume and segment profit growth, and the food service team has now delivered year-over-year segment profit growth for 9 out of the last 10 quarters. We continue to leverage our highly differentiated business model to provide innovative solutions to solve operator challenges. In the second quarter, we once again saw strong contributions from Bacon 1, our premium prepared proteins, pepperoni, and Jennie-O Turkey. With the help of our culinary collective and direct sales force, we continue to introduce innovative new offerings that are positioned to disrupt large food service categories. Two of our newest items, Hormel Flash 180 Sous Vide Chicken and Hormel Ribbon Pepperoni, have already exceeded our fiscal 2024 sales projections, and our new Café H pork al pastor product also has been well received in the marketplace.

We recently featured these products at the National Restaurant Association Show, where the response from customers was overwhelmingly positive. We believe our food service business is exceptionally well-positioned to drive category growth, brand value, and operator engagement well into the future. Transitioning to our international segment, our performance has been very encouraging given the challenging conditions the team faced last year. From a profitability standpoint, international had a strong first half of the year, with segment profit up almost 30%. Our team drove growth in many areas, including our partnerships in Indonesia and the Philippines, our refrigerated export business, and in-country operations in China and Brazil. Notably, in China, our food service business is performing relatively well, and our retail business continues to recover.

We expect our retail business in China to improve in the back half of the year, led by distribution gains of SPAM Singles, the launch of new Skippy spreads, and innovation in our shelf-stable meat snacking portfolio. Overall, we remain confident that we have the right strategy and structure in place to drive growth in our international business and develop our global presence over the long term. In our retail segment, we continue to navigate an environment characterized by an uncertain consumer backdrop and pressure from whole bird turkey dynamics. That said, there are many proof points showing that our focus on winning with consumers, winning with customers, and driving profitable growth is delivering positive returns. According to Circana, we gained share across several of our flagship brands during the second quarter, including Planters, Black Label, SPAM, and Jennie-O.

Additionally, we increased total points of distribution by 6% for our flagship brands and 4% for our rising brands, which includes brands such as Applegate, Herdez, Corn Nuts, and Hormel Square Table. From a vertical perspective, we delivered strong results both in terms of shipments and consumer takeaway with bacon. Black Label raw and convenient bacon products are resonating with consumers, and we expect this trend to continue in the back half of the year, supported by further advertising and innovation. Emerging brands, which contains our Applegate and Justin's brands, also delivered a strong quarter, with mid-single-digit volume and net sales growth compared to last year. Similarly, within snacking and entertaining, we delivered net sales growth for Planters snack nuts. I'll provide more detail on our successes within this important category later in my remarks. Within convenient meals and proteins, we are experiencing mixed results.

Our SPAM family of products and Square Table entrees portfolios both delivered a strong first half, even in response to pricing actions. But we did experience softer demand for other center store canned and convenient items. We are also seeing similar softness across the global flavors vertical and within the Mexican categories in which we compete. These trends are not entirely new, and our teams are actively working to address this in the back half of the year. Lastly, our value-added meats vertical continues to be negatively impacted by turkey dynamics. While we did drive growth during the first half across the Jennie-O value-added retail portfolio, these gains were more than offset by weaker whole turkey markets. We expect this business to remain challenged for the rest of the fiscal year. Our objective in retail is to balance volume and net sales gains to drive consistent, profitable growth.

We are managing through challenges such as turkey pricing and pockets of softer consumer demand. Longer term, the team remains focused on winning with our consumers and our customers, better allocating our resources, and improving the margin structure of the business. Now, moving on to our enterprise-wide entertaining and snacking strategy, where we continue to win by unlocking the value of our brands across the channels where we compete. Within retail, we saw some of the most positive in-market data for the Planters and Corn Nuts brands since our acquisition of the business, including volume, sales, and share gains during the quarter for mixed nuts, cashews, and Corn Nuts. This momentum is a direct result of expanded distribution and our investments in innovation, higher ROI advertising, and brand building. Additionally, we released several new entertaining and snacking items, including Planters Salt and Vinegar Cashews ...

Planters Nut Duos, Loaded Taco flavored Corn Nuts, and a summer-themed hard salami and pepperoni tray under the Hormel Gatherings brand. We are supporting Hormel Pepperoni, America's number one pepperoni brand. Our new national advertising campaign, Boldly Irresistible, highlights the versatility and craveability of this popular snack, and is expected to help drive growth in the back half of the year. In food service, our team delivered excellent growth during the quarter in the convenience channel, led by Planters flavored cashews and Corn Nuts innovation. Internationally, we recently announced that the Skippy brand is returning to the Canadian market in the form of five all-new peanut butter-inspired snack products. This complements the work the team is doing to drive entertaining and snacking growth globally. Turning now to our last two strategic priorities, future-fitting our one supply chain and advancing our Transform and Modernize initiative.

In the second quarter, our supply chain efforts once again resulted in lower overall logistics expenses, lower distressed sales, and higher investment income from responsible capital management. We also made further progress on our Transform and Modernize initiative in the areas of supply chain efficiency, portfolio optimization, and data and analytics. Now, within our plan work stream, we continued the implementation of a new end-to-end planning process and are integrating new planning technology. In the buy work stream, we are realizing the benefits from our new procurement and productivity programs. For the balance of the year, we are broadening our efforts outside the supply chain to all procurement areas. Within make, we completed a major improvement project to expand the capacity for our retail can portfolio, allowing us to limit external production. Additionally, we launched a project to increase capacity for Bacon 1.

Both projects use existing assets and infrastructure and are expected to generate strong returns. In the move work stream, we implemented analytics across our refrigerated network to further enhance our service levels. We are also exploring an expansion of our refrigerated network to drive added benefits, and we continue to advance our total company portfolio optimization effort. Leveraging our analytics tools and capabilities, we are finding opportunities to enhance and support margin profile improvements. We are eliminating lower margin SKUs, allowing us to maximize production time for more profitable items. Also, this quarter, we celebrated the opening of our new $5 million childcare center in Austin, Minnesota. Not only does this new facility assist the company's recruiting efforts in today's tight labor market, but more importantly, the center provides a needed service for our team members and our community.

This transformational work is a key driver of our growth over the next several years and is essential for building significant and scalable capabilities for our future. Now, shifting to our updated 2024 outlook. We are reaffirming our full-year top-line outlook and updating our earnings outlook. We continue to expect net sales growth of 1%-3%, assuming volume growth in key categories, a benefit from higher brand support and innovation, and our current assumptions for raw material input costs. In food service, we expect continued volume growth led by bacon, turkey, pizza toppings, and our line of premium prepared proteins. We expect net sales increases in our international business, driven by branded exports and further recovery in China. In retail, we expect higher net sales for our bacon and emerging brands verticals.

We have assumed net sales will be negatively impacted by volume and pricing headwinds in whole bird turkeys and higher elasticities in our center store business, as previously discussed. From a bottom-line perspective, we have increased the lower end of our diluted net earnings per share and adjusted diluted net earnings per share ranges to reflect our solid first half performance and our expectations for growth from our food service and international segments, ongoing improvements across our supply chain, and benefits from our Transform and Modernize initiative. Consistent with our prior guidance, our full-year outlook assumes higher salaries, normalized employee-related expenses, and costs associated with planned investments in the business, including higher advertising investments. An additional factor expected to impact both our net sales and earnings guidance ranges is an unplanned production interruption at our Planters facility in Suffolk, Virginia.

We discovered a food safety issue in April, which has since been resolved. Jacinth will provide more detail regarding the financial impact in her comments. Taking all these factors into account for the full year, we expect net sales growth of 1%-3%, diluted net earnings per share of $1.45-$1.55, and adjusted diluted net earnings per share of $1.55-$1.65, and benefits to net earnings from our Transform and Modernize initiative, which is expected to deliver its strongest level of savings in our fourth quarter. In closing, our first half performance demonstrates our team's ability to execute our clear and achievable plan. We have line of sight to a strong second half of the year as we make further progress on the initiative we laid out last fall.

Our team remains focused on growing operating income, driving savings through our Transform and Modernize initiative, and capturing incremental value from our investments. At this time, I will turn the call over to Jacinth Smiley to discuss detailed financial information related to the second quarter and first half, and additional color on our outlook.

Jacinth Smiley (EVP and CFO)

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. As Jim noted in his opening comments, we delivered a strong first half of the year. Volume for the first half was 2.2 billion pounds, comparable to last year. Broad-based volume growth in food service and growth in international offset a decline in our retail segment. Of the 29 million pound decline in retail, approximately two-thirds of the decline was related to lower sales across whole bird turkeys. Net sales for the second quarter and first half of the year were $2.9 billion and $5.9 billion, respectively. Similar to volume, there is some nuance in the numbers. The approximate negative impact in net sales for the first half of the year related to whole bird turkeys was 1%, weighted more heavily against the second quarter.

We increased gross profit by 3% in the second quarter and the first half, driven by strength across the supply chain and benefit from our Transform and Modernize initiative. Gross profit margin improved 90 basis points to 17.4% in the second quarter. All segments delivered higher gross profit margins during the first half of the year. SG&A increased $54 million in the second quarter and $73 million during the first half of the year. These increases include the settlement of pork antitrust litigation, higher employee-related expenses, and higher external expenses, including $19 million related to incremental investments in our Transform and Modernize initiative. Advertising investments were up 27% in the second quarter and up 9% for the first half.

We continue to support our leading brands in the marketplace with new advertising creatives and stepped up spending for the balance of the year, including for the Spam, Hormel Pepperoni, Planters, and Black Label brands. Equity in earnings for the second quarter and first half decreased due to lower results from MegaMex, partially offset by improvement from our international partnerships. Interest and investment income for the second quarter and first half increased as interest income from higher cash balances and favorable market interest rates offset higher interest expense associated with the recent debt issuance. Earnings before income taxes were $244 million for the second quarter and $530 million for the first half.

On an adjusted basis, earnings before income taxes for the first half were $564 million, a 1% increase compared to the first half of last year. The effective tax rate was 22.5% for the second quarter and 23% for the first half, which were higher than last year. Our prior year effective tax rate benefited from higher federal deductions. Given the higher rate to date, the effective tax rate for the fiscal 2024 year is now expected to be between 22% and 23%. The net result of all these factors was second quarter and first half diluted net earnings per share of $0.34 and $0.74, respectively. First half adjusted diluted net earnings per share were $0.79, in line with last year. We also delivered strong operating cash flow during the first half of the year.

Year to date, cash flow from operations was $640 million, an increase of 55%. We remain committed to dividend growth, investing in our business, and maintaining an investment-grade rating. We paid our 383rd consecutive quarterly dividend, effective May fifteenth, at an annual rate of $1.13 per share. We also announced our August dividend, which will represent our 96th year of uninterrupted dividends. We invested $60 million in capital projects during the second quarter. The largest capital projects for the quarter included the packaging projects for Planters and investment in our new order-to-cash system. Our outlook for capital expenditures in 2024 remains at $280 million. We ended the quarter with $1.5 billion in cash and short-term securities and $3.8 billion of debt.

During the quarter, we completed a debt offering of $500 million. We plan to use the proceeds of the issuance and the cash on hand to pay off the $950 million note that is due in June of this year. As Jim shared, we are reaffirming our full-year net sales expectations and updating our earnings expectations. We expect third quarter pork input costs to increase seasonally and are seeing this pattern play out for key inputs, such as bellies, trim, and hogs. We continue to assume full-year pork input costs to be higher than last year and above five-year averages. In turkey, supply disruption this spring from HPAI was minimal, and we remain in a strong position to service our customers and attract new business opportunities.

We are projecting growth across several parts of our genuine branded turkey business, including lean ground turkey in retail and value-added turkey in food service. Lower volumes and pricing for commodity whole turkeys are expected to continue to pressure earnings. As Jim noted, we experienced an unplanned production interruption at our Planters facility in Suffolk, Virginia. This issue is expected to affect service levels on some of our highest volume and innovative items, primarily impacting the third quarter. We have included in our updated earnings outlook an estimated $0.03 impact related to this issue. In terms of our back half cadence, we expect third quarter Adjusted Diluted Net Earnings Per Share to be lower compared to last year and the second quarter. The primary drivers are continued whole turkey headwinds and the Suffolk production interruption.

We expect adjusted diluted net earnings per share growth in the fourth quarter, anticipating growth from all business segments and the strongest contribution of the year from our Transform and Modernize initiative. To conclude my remarks, I would like to thank the entire team for their contributions to a solid first half of the year and for their continued commitment. There is more work ahead, and we're confident that we have the right strategy, people, and balanced portfolio to drive the business forward and deliver long-term sustainable value. At this time, I'll turn the call over to the operator for the question and answer portion of the call.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touchtone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Questions will be taken in the order received. Should you wish to cancel your request, please press the star followed by the two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. Your first question is from Ken Goldman from JPMorgan. Please ask your question.

Ken Goldman (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, good morning, and thank you. I wanted to ask about the EPS guide range, a $0.02 increase roughly at the midpoint. Your first half EPS alone came in $0.08 or $0.09 above consensus. You mentioned that the Virginia plant interruption is expected to affect earnings by about $0.03 or so. Still leaves a little bit of a gap between how much the first half beat, and I think it beat your own expectations, you said, and kind of what you're, you know, looking for from the back half in terms of guidance.

So just wanting to get a little bit of idea of, you know, if there's any prudence that you might call out in your guidance or just kind of how you're thinking about, you know, some of the puts and takes in the back half of the year from a bottom line perspective that might, you know, be holding back your guidance range from what it otherwise could have been?

Jim Snee (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, good morning, Ken. Thanks for the question. You know, as we sit here today, yes, we're ahead of expectations. We feel, we feel good about the business, and as you commented, you saw this morning that we took up the low end of our adjusted EPS range, increased the midpoint. You know, we also delivered stronger margins for the second quarter and first half, which really demonstrates the progress we're making on key initiatives. And if it wasn't for, you know, the Suffolk issue that we talked about in our prepared remarks, we would be having a more positive conversation today. You know, a couple of the more specific items to think about, we mentioned Planters and Suffolk.

You know, would also think about on our first quarter call, we talked about the incremental impact of the full year turkey, which was roughly $0.05. And then also, you know, we talked about the tax rate as well. That'll have an impact of, you know, one to two cents. So, you know, when you take all those things together, we feel like the increase in the raises is appropriate. You know, when we think about what's, you know, what's really positive, you know, we're gonna still expect strong performance from food service and international. You know, we've got a path to growth in retail. We still expect our strongest Transform and Modernize delivery in the back half of the year.

You know, but clearly, we got some things that we're watching, talking about the Planters business, and then also really keeping a close eye on what's happening with the turkey market overall. But when you boil it all down to the bottom line, you know, we're really pleased with our half one performance, and a clear line of sight to growth in the back half of the year.

Ken Goldman (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, thank you for that. And then for my follow-up, you know, guidance for top line growth was reiterated, of course, for the year. It does imply pretty decent step-up in the back half rate despite comparisons that are, you know, slightly more difficult. You talked about better innovation, more advertising. You talked about your current assumptions for raw material inputs. Can you elaborate a little bit, though, on kind of what the key drivers will be to maybe, you know, accelerate that top line in the back half of the year? Just how do we think about bucketing the most important of those drivers, especially in retail, where you said the whole bird turkey business will remain challenged? Thank you.

Jim Snee (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah. Thanks, Ken, for the follow-up. You know, I think there's, you know, one of the things I would say is let's take food service and international maybe off the table. Food service has got broad-based strength, outperforming the industry. Really expect that momentum to continue for the balance of the year. The international business, we expect to have strong sales growth in the back half of the year as well. So I think those two businesses are going to provide strong growth, and really, the story is in retail. So, you know, as we said, it's a bit of a mixed bag. We've got, you know, a lot of verticals that are doing just fine.

You know, you talk about turkey, and the impact that that'll have in the back half of the year. And then we also said in our prepared remarks, you know, just watching what happens in the convenient meals and protein vertical. And so, you know, we, we have had bright spots with SPAM, refrigerated entrees, Skippy, but, you know, we've got some other brands and categories that, that we're watching. We do have really strong syndicated data over the last four weeks, which is really, really encouraging. And so there is a lot of good news, and we, we do expect to be able to deliver in that range.

What I would say is, as we think about it, the most likely scenario would be towards the low end of that net range or the low end of the range for the net sales guide.

Ken Goldman (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Understood. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Your next question is from Peter Galbo, from Bank of America. Please ask your question.

Peter Galbo (Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions and for all the color actually on the quarter and go forward. Maybe just for my first question, a little bit of a two-parter. Jacinth, I just wanted to clarify. I think you said that turkey accounted for two-thirds of the volume decline in U.S. retail. I wasn't sure if that was a first half or a 2Q comment specifically. And then, Jim, maybe if you can just elaborate a bit more on the convenient meals and protein side. I mean, obviously, we've now gone through kind of lapping the lower SNAP benefits. That would seem to be kind of a category that maybe would be a bit more exposed to that.

Just what's the playbook from here to kind of try and improve the volume forward as kind of that, you know, well, perceived tailwind is maybe not as much of a tailwind as we would have thought? You know, I think that's probably a broader question across food, but would love your thoughts there.

Jacinth Smiley (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Hi, good morning, Peter. Yes, indeed. So the volume impact for the first half on is related to two-thirds of that is related to turkey.

... and then, Deanna will take the next part of your question.

Deanna Brady (EVP, Retail)

Yeah, thanks, Peter. Relative to convenient meals and protein, I think it's important to kind of tease apart. There was strong growth in SPAM and entrees as well as Skippy, which we bucket under convenient meals and protein. Where we're really seeing the softer demand and the consumer pullback is in the canned or center store area. When we think about, you know, the quarter and some of the impacts, as you mentioned, it really was related to SNAP, weather, you know, weather being softer. Historically, that's a quarter that has colder weather, and it influences the purchase of those types of products. And competition and promotions have heated up in those categories.

So as we think about it heading into Q3, you know, that is seasonally a lower quarter for convenient meals and protein. But that doesn't mean our team isn't hard at work attacking. Some of the opportunities that they're thinking about is, you know, making sure our promotions are in place, making sure our promotions are driving depth, pulling up on frequency to make sure we're getting to those promoted price points that are gonna encourage purchase. We're also working close with our retailers on displays and getting product out of center store and out into the other areas where we disrupt people, on their path to purchase. We're also shifting some dollars into the category to be speaking with consumers about the value that these items play, especially as consumers are thinking about, you know, value options, as they're shopping.

And then I think the final piece is, you know, thinking about as we head into the fall, you know, making sure that we already have really significant promotions in place, for a heavy holiday season, back to school, what have you.

Peter Galbo (Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. That's super helpful. Thanks, Deanna. And then, Jim, maybe just to follow up on Ken's question, you know, around kind of the back half sales guidance and understanding the, you know, kind of the low end of the range is helpful. Any thoughts just as we model out the back half kind of volume, you know, relative to price, mix, how we should think about that?

I think, you know, given what you've said about some of the raw materials and maybe the pass-through nature, just wanna understand some of those components in the back half. Thanks very much.

Jim Snee (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, sure. And we can do that for you, Peter. You know, as we go through the segments, food service, you know, we expect, you know, volume mid-single digits, you know, sales in the high single-digit range. You know, international will be a bit more nuanced, where volume will probably be down high single digits, and a lot of that is, you know, lower fresh pork, some of the commodity businesses. But sales, because the mix improves, will be up high single digits. And then the retail business, you know, we do expect volume and sales to be in that mid-single-digit range down. I'm sorry, low single-digit range down.

And then all of that, you know, there's still that path to get us into that guided range, but we do think the most likely scenario would be to be at the low end of the range.

Peter Galbo (Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Very helpful. Thanks, Jim.

Jim Snee (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Your next question is from Rupesh Parikh from Oppenheimer. Please ask your question.

Rupesh Parikh (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So just on the advertising front, so we know there was an increase this quarter in advertising. Just curious how the returns are playing out thus far versus your expectations.

Deanna Brady (EVP, Retail)

Yeah. Thanks, Rupesh. This is Deanna. You know, as we introduced back at Investor Day, we talked about our flagship and our rising brands and resourcing those brands to drive higher growth rates. When you think about the performance of SPAM, Black Label Bacon, Jennie-O, and where we're spending our advertising, we're seeing really strong performance in both volume and market share gains.

In addition to the advertising, we're also introducing innovation in all of those categories, and so it's really a one-two punch of, you know, not only reminding the consumers about the products, but when they get to shelf, that they're seeing some innovation there as well. So we're excited about the advertising. We've also introduced a lot of new advertising with new brand positioning backing it up, and happy to, as we think about the quarter coming up, pepperoni is already in market with new packaging as well as new advertising. And we're really excited about what that's gonna continue to do as one of our other flagship brands. So working well for us, strong returns, and continuing to get stronger and stronger as we progress.

Rupesh Parikh (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Great. And then maybe just one follow-up question.

As you look at your retail segment, how would you describe the current promotional competitive backdrop? I know, you know, some of the retailers out there are talking about reducing prices. So just wanna get a sense of how you guys would characterize the backdrop right now.

Deanna Brady (EVP, Retail)

So it depends by category. You know, I think in most categories, we're comfortable, you know. And for us, we're really thinking about the desired outcome, and is our, our promotional dollars really driving returns for us? And in some cases, under the new structure that we have, we're able to shift dollars from trade into advertising or into other areas to support growth if it's not providing the right return.

We're also, though, then shifting dollars, like I said, on convenient meals and protein into convenient meals and protein to help support the right promoted price points that we need in this particular, you know, a lower seasonality for us in convenient meals and protein. That category, in particular, is seeing more competition. But across the board, we're, you know, not seeing anything that's out of the ordinary. Relative to our customers, you know, they get to control price at shelf. We can influence, and we can have conversations. We can make sure they understand, based on our insights and analytics, what is gonna drive growth and profitability, and we can inform as a category leader and a category supporter, that's our role.

Rupesh Parikh (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

... Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Your next question is from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler. Please ask your question.

Michael Lavery (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. Good morning. Just looking at the retail scanner data and how it compared to your reported figures, there was a little bigger gap than we had expected. And I guess first was curious how much SKU rationalizations might be a factor there, or you've touched on the turkey weakness. Is that maybe a more unmeasured piece of the business relative to others? And just how we should think about that, how that might look over the rest of the year. How the gap might look, but how they would compare.

Jim Snee (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah. Good morning. Thanks for the question, Michael. I think, you know, as you've talked about really positive trends in our scanner data with, you know, five of the six verticals showing growth. You know, and really the decline is in, you know, turkeys and in some of the non-tracked areas of the business. You know, we still do have some contract manufacturing business that is showing declines, you know, in addition to the turkey that we discussed. But, those are really the drivers for the volume decline.

Michael Lavery (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, great. That's helpful. And when you talk about the pressure in the center store on at least certain categories, can you point to any common thread? You know, the brands where there's weakness, is it ones that face more private label exposure? Or are they do they have higher price gaps? Or is it higher absolute price points? Is there any sort of consumer read there that you can get from what you're seeing in the center store part of the business that you called out?

Deanna Brady (EVP, Retail)

Yeah. Thank you. There's gonna be a couple of things. One, there's a lot more competition in those categories. We're also seeing price elasticities play out based on the price increases we took in Q2, based on beef markets and as a strong component in the majority of those items. So the price elasticities was something that we anticipated and expected. The competition, obviously, and the heavier promotional activity is something that we're working to counteract as we speak.

Michael Lavery (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, thanks so much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Your next question is from Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.

Adam Samuelson (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yes, thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Jim Snee (Chairman, President and CEO)

Morning, Adam.

Adam Samuelson (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Morning. So I guess I wanna maybe dig in on the retail side. And, Jim, I appreciate the clarity you gave around the sales and volume expectation for the retail segment in the second half of the year. I know there were some parts of the business where there was targeted price increases that you were putting in place for the end of the second quarter. I just wanna maybe hone in on those because they do seem to be touching on some of the categories having more weakness right now. And, are you seeing the elasticities proving to be higher than you thought going in? Are you seeing pushback from retailers on not just not taking the price increases?

Or help me think about how successful those actions are relative to the plans you might have had 3 or 6 months ago.

Jim Snee (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, I think, you know, Adam, I'll start with kind of the, the pricing with retailers. And, you know, clearly there's a heightened level of discussions in terms of, of pricing, and, you know, that's not anything new. We've talked about that in the past. And, you know, the, the retail, the retail team does a really nice job making sure that there's solid rationale and clarification on, on why the, the pricing was needed. You know, the, the other part of this is, you know, the, the team is working to re-address those issues now. And there's, you know, it's a combination of short term and also really the long-term vision of, of where we see some of these things playing out. And I'll let Deanna add some additional color on that.

Deanna Brady (EVP, Retail)

Yeah. So while, you know, when I think back to Planters, as an example, a year ago, where we took a really thorough approach to thinking about what short-term actions do we need to take to address the in the quarter, maybe in the half. But longer term, we were also doing work and similar work that we're doing against the convenient meals and protein, when we think about our revenue growth management team and Price Pack Architecture, and really evaluating our price points, evaluating our promotional productivity. Again, as I mentioned, shifting some of our promotions to a more productive strategy, perhaps. We're also thinking about innovation. You know, we mentioned some of our flagship brands that performed so well in the first half and that we expect to continue to perform well.

The drivers of the performance were really three things. It was advertising and refreshed advertising, in many cases, based on brand positioning work that was done, is based on innovation. And so when we got consumers to the shelf, they were also excited to try new flavors, new pack sizes, new shapes, forms, what have you. So we're also thinking about innovation and advertising. And really, some really great work that drove a lot of progress in the first half was our retail selling organization and the total points of distribution that they've been able to gain in both our flagship and our rising brands in the 5% range of increase.

And so we expect that important work to do, which, you know, comes through sitting down with your category managers, and usually can be six months to a year out as those we sell a new total distribution point. So it's gonna be a very thorough approach that we, again, execute in the short term through promos, displays, turning on social media, as well as long term through PPA innovation, advertising, and gaining distribution.

Adam Samuelson (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

... Okay, that's very helpful, Caller. And then just taking a step back on the SG&A side this quarter, obviously, there's a bigger year-on-year increase in employee incentive payments on top of the advertising that you kinda more clearly break out. As we think about the full year, how—what's the right range of non-advertising related SG&A growth that we should be thinking about? And presumably, that growth would moderate next year because you're not gonna have the year-on-year expansion or the same magnitude of year-on-year expansion in employee compensation as you are this year. But just help us frame that trajectory going into through the end of the second half and next year. Thanks.

Jacinth Smiley (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Hi, good morning. So you know, the perspective that we're thinking about and you should have relative to SG&A is certainly the biggest component year-over-year is going to be the expenses related to our Transform and Modernize. And so that will drive a double-digit increase year-over-year in the back half of this year, but also going into next year as well, in addition to the fact that we do have that higher compensation that we outlined in our prepared remarks.

Adam Samuelson (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

That's, that's helpful, Caller. I'll, I'll pass it on. Thanks.

Jacinth Smiley (EVP and CFO)

Okay.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Your next question is from Tom Palmer from Citi. Please ask your question.

Tom Palmer (VP of Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning. Thank you. You noted lower whole turkey volumes, especially at retail. How does this align with your turkey production? Are you pulling back that as well, or is this more reference to kind of what you're selling to customers? Because if you're not cutting supply by as much, I guess, where is the turkey essentially going? And is there a point where maybe volumes inflect a bit more?

Jim Snee (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah. Tom, good morning. I think the biggest takeaway in turkey from where we sit today is there really is no change in our outlook. You know, we've got strong internal supply and capacity. The teams are doing a great job, both at retail and food service. We're gaining share with our lean ground turkey. Our food service team, as we've talked about, you know, they've been hard at work regaining some of the lost business that we had during the AI event. And so, you know, there's really no change to how we're thinking about the business for the rest of the year. Really, we think that we've de-risked the turkey outlook for the rest of the year.

Tom Palmer (VP of Senior Equity Research Analyst)

All right, thank you. Just on the food service side, at an industry level, we've seen, you know, pull back in, in traffic. It seems like you're really not seeing the effects of this, and, at least the, the guidance you gave would appear that, you know, you don't really expect a, a whole lot of, of pressure in the second half of the year either. Could you just give any detail on, on what's really driving this growth in, in terms of, are you seeing your customers not, not seeing the traffic pressure, just given maybe a different mix than the broader industry? Are there new customer wins to be thinking about? Just any detail there. Thank you.

Jim Snee (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, thanks. Thanks, Tom. You know, obviously the food service team, another excellent start to the year, and it remains well positioned for the balance of the year. And so, you know, just as a reminder, you know, we compete both in the commercial and non-commercial elements of the business, and so we've really got a broad array of a customer base. You know, when we think about who we're targeting and who we're selling to, you know, we talked about the great work happening in the convenience channel, not only with our Planters business, but also thinking about, you know, some of the grab-and-go opportunities for us, where we're more of an ingredient. And so it's those things, you know, thinking about the channel diversification.

You know, we've talked, you know, at length about the competitive advantage we think our direct sales force offers us, being front and center with the customer, talking to them about their challenges, what's happening in their business. And then, you know, last, but certainly not least, is just this continued innovation pipeline that the team has been able to build. You know, we've again, talked for many years about Bacon 1 and how that business continues to grow. You know, this, this quarter, we're talking about our Flash 180 Sous Vide fully cooked chicken item that we're bringing to operators to help, help them have high-quality chicken items on their menu when maybe they don't have the right equipment or staff to do it.

So there's a lot of things at play that, again, we believe puts us in a very advantaged position and helps us, especially in the face of some of the data that you're seeing. Our team is still out there able to drive results.

Tom Palmer (VP of Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Your next question is from Ben Theurer from Barclays. Please ask your question.

Ben Theurer (Managing Director)

Yeah, good morning, Jim, Jacinth. Thanks for taking my question. Obviously, a lot's been asked already. Just wanted to follow up first on some of your expectations on the international business. Clearly, it was good on the profit side, but top line was down.

... Did I hear this right that you said, like, volume down high single digit, but sales actually up high single digits? Just wanted to clarify that, that commentary and, to understand a little bit, if you can share with us a regional nuance as to, to the performance in international. That would be my first question. Thank you.

Jim Snee (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah. Yep. So, Ben, you did hear that correctly in terms of volume being down high single digits and sales being up high single digits. And a big part of that is mix when we think about, you know, some of the lower commodity sales that we'll have, and we'll have a lot more, you know, branded business going through that segment. You know, as we think about China, the retail business is continuing to improve. It's not where it has been in the past, but there's a lot of great work happening in terms of regaining distribution, innovation in our shelf-stable meat snacking portfolio. But the food service business is really, really strong and continues to gain momentum in China. We've been pleased with the results of the investments that we've made in Indonesia.

You know, our partners in the Philippines continue to have a strong performance. So, you know, again, it really is, as we've said that, you know, going into the year and even in Q1, is that the business has continued to improve throughout the year as we expected. We do expect some acceleration in half two. You know, and I would remind you, you know, again, that, you know, when we think about especially Q4, international is lapping a pretty weak Q4 comp. That's something else to think about.

Ben Theurer (Managing Director)

Okay, perfect. And then my follow-up, if I, if I may, just, just real quick around the, the volume performance in retail, and, and you gave already a lot of detail, but just wanted to understand, like, what is your approach in terms of thinking to recover these, the lost volume? Is there any way of considering, certain isolated, caps on pricing, more temporary through promotioning, trying to stimulate the volume? So what is your, kind of playbook, to get the volumes going again, particularly in retail?

Jim Snee (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, you know, I think the one thing I don't wanna have lost in this conversation is that there are some brands in that vertical that are doing really well. You know, we talked about SPAM, our refrigerated entrees, Skippy Peanut Butter. You know, and so there is some really strong performance there. You know, I think Deanna has talked, and I'll maybe let her reiterate the fact that the team is thinking about this in two buckets. There's the short-term work that we can do, and then really the long-term opportunities for the team. And that's really where we wanna spend our time to make sure that we've got the parts of the businesses that need the support, that we have them on solid ground.

Deanna, just maybe reiterate some of that.

Deanna Brady (EVP, Retail)

Yeah, you know, beyond, you know, what I've already said about our flagship brands, which had a nice volume growth supported by advertising innovation in the first half, we'll continue to see that support as we head into the back half. The other areas that you'll see is continued innovation, and we've got numerous innovation launches. I believe they were in the pre-read deck that were launched in the first half and are launching in the second half. What we're really happy to see with the innovation is that we're bringing in new consumers. So think about the new Herdez entrees and the House of Tsang entrees, bringing in multicultural and a younger consumers into the portfolio. Seeing the same thing with the Planters innovation, both the flavored cashews and the Duos. So we'll continue to drive new consumers.

Obviously, those things support not, not only our baseline business, but incremental business as well. You'll can see us continue to advertise throughout the back half of the year. And then finally, from a promotional standpoint, you know, we've got a lot of promotional activity already secured through Q3, working on Q4 right now as our teams lock up back to school and think about holiday programming. So those are some of the key things the team will be executing, both in the short term as well as continuing to think about the long term.

The one, you know, that I don't wanna forget to talk about, because it's really important work, is the Price Pack Architecture work through our Revenue Growth Management team and the data and the insights that we're bringing to the table to really think about overall category growth based on having the right prices on shelf, having the right promotions in place, as well as the right assortment. That work does take some time to not only do the studies, but also to then get out and execute with customers and then get that new set and new sizing and new pricing and promotions on shelf.

Ben Theurer (Managing Director)

Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Your next question is from Heather Jones, from Heather Jones Research. Please ask your question.

Heather Jones (Founder)

Good morning. Thanks for the question. Hi. My first question is just, it's a really quick two-part details one. I was wondering what the turkey impact in Q2 was on volume and on the Suffolk impact for Q3, even assuming a really high contribution margin-

... It seems like that 3-cent would translate into about a 3%-4% impact to retail sales for Q3. So I just wanted to check my math on that.

Jim Snee (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah. So Heather, I'll start with the turkey volume. You know, we've been talking about it in the first half. David can get you the specific Q2 number in your follow-up call. And then, you know, your estimate in terms of the range for impact in Planters Suffolk, that's probably pretty close.

Okay. So then I just wanted to step back and just make sure I'm understanding the big picture clearly. So relative to when you gave guidance at the beginning of the year, in Q2, you, I think, if I remember correctly, increased the negative impact from turkey by about $0.05. And then now we've got this $0.01-$0.02 impact from taxes and then a $0.03 impact from Suffolk. So that's a pretty large number relative to your initial guidance. And so what would have been the primary drivers that the much greater strength than the other in the other components of your earnings?

Yeah. Heather, you know, we've seen really strong performance from our food service business, and our international business has rebounded in a really strong way. You know, the other part that, you know, I do wanna mention when we bring into this conversation is the work that we've been doing and Transform and Modernize. And so, you know, we've talked about that. Our investor day will have the opportunity here at the end of the year to provide some additional clarity.

But I think that that's a piece of the work that the team is doing, and we, again, had that in our prepared remarks, the work that we're doing to plan the business, you know, how we buy for the business, how we make it, how we move it, you know, all of those things have been really, really effective for us. And so, that would really be the third driver in our ability to overcome what you describe as our pretty, pretty good headwinds. But, you know, the bottom line is that, you know, we're ahead of expectations. We feel good about the business, pleased with half one, and a clear line of sight for half two growth.

Heather Jones (Founder)

Okay. Okay. Thank you so much.

Jim Snee (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yep. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I will now hand the call back to Jim Snee, CEO, for the closing remarks.

Jim Snee (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah. So I wanna thank all of you for joining us this morning. We're really pleased by our overall performance and the strong first half of the year we were able to deliver. This is a result of a total team effort, and I wanna take the opportunity to thank all of our teams. We have made a lot of progress on our initiatives, but we still have a lot of work to do. But as I said earlier, we have confidence that our business will keep moving in the right direction for the balance of fiscal 2024. Thank you, and have a great day.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now ended. Thank you all for joining. You may all disconnect.