Hesai Group - Earnings Call - Q4 2024
March 10, 2025
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Hesai Group, Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Please note that today's conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to our first speaker today, Yuanting Shi, the company's Head of Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Yuanting Shi (Head of Capital Markets)
Thank you, Operator. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining Hesai Group's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Our earnings release is now available on our IR website at investor.hesaitech.com, as well as via newswire services. Today, you will hear from our CEO, Dr. David Li, who will provide an overview of our recent updates. Next, our CFO, Mr. Andrew Fan, will address our financial results before we open the call for questions.
Before we continue, I refer you to the safe harbor statement in our earnings press release, which applies to this call, as we'll make forward-looking statements. Please also note that the company will discuss non-GAAP measures today, which are most thoroughly explained and reconciled to the most comparable GAAP measures in our earnings release and SEC filings. With that, I'm pleased to turn over the call to our CEO, Dr. David Li. David, please go ahead.
David Li (CEO)
Thank you, Yuanting, and thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. Let's start with a look back at the exciting journey we've had throughout 2024. 2024 was a transformational and a breakout year for Hesai, with LiDAR shipments and net revenues hitting record highs. Driven by accelerating LiDAR adoption in the ADAS and robotics sectors, we solidified our industry leadership and shipped over 500,000 LiDAR units in 2024, achieving an impressive growth rate of more than doubling each year for four consecutive years.
Stating the rising tides of LiDAR soaring demand and leveraging our unmatched vertical integration capabilities and economics of scale, we delivered the strongest financial performance in the global LiDAR industry, with the highest net revenues and blended gross margins. Most notably, we made history as the world's first LiDAR company to achieve full-year non-GAAP net profits, all while further strengthening our unmatched financial leadership with solid positive operating and net cash flows, making us the only company of our kind in the industry.
Building on this momentum, we would love to share our three expected goals for 2025. First, we are projecting 1.2-1.5 million LiDAR shipments, with nearly 200,000 of those being high-margin robotic LiDAR units. Second, we aim to achieve net revenues of RMB 3-3.5 billion. Third, we expect to achieve GAAP profitability of RMB 200-350 million. This marks a significant leap from non-GAAP break-even in 2024, solidifying our trajectory toward long-term success. Now, let's zoom out and look at the bigger picture.
China is leading the charge in electrification, with EV making up nearly 50% of the passenger vehicle market in 2024. As EVs become the new norm, the battlefield is shifting to ADAS and vehicle intelligence, critical areas where OEMs are fiercely racing to set themselves apart. According to Goldman Sachs, ADAS is poised for explosive growth, with market penetration expected to skyrocket from just 8% in 2023 to a staggering 70% by 2030 in China.
This trajectory mirrors adoption curves of smartphones from 2008 to 2015 and EVs from 2019 to 2026, signaling a transformative decade ahead. The long-term macro trends are directly reflected in the bold actions of OEMs in China. In 2025, our key customers, such as BYD, Changan Automobile, and Leapmotor, are ramping up their strategic upgrades, driving the push to make intelligent driving mainstream. ADAS is more affordable and accessible than ever.
Even more revolutionary is their universal intelligent driving strategy, which integrates cutting-edge ADAS across the new vehicle lineups, also shattering price barriers. With LiDAR-equipped models now entering the RMB 100,000 range, advanced driving technologies are within reach for a wider audience. We're thrilled to witness the democratization of intelligent driving technology and excited for what's ahead. As ADAS becomes ubiquitous, so does the demand for enhanced perception and safety, driving the rapid rise of LiDAR adoption.
Fueled by the growing acceleration of ADAS and autonomous driving, along with mass market adoption, LiDAR integration in EVs in China is set to surge from just 8% in 2023 to 20% in 2025, and then to an impressive 56% by 2030, according to Goldman Sachs' estimates. The future of driving is here, and LiDAR is at the forefront of this revolution.
The surge in LiDAR adoption is a testament to our long-held belief in LiDAR's three core values, making cars safer, smarter, and more desirable than ever. First and foremost, LiDAR is becoming as essential as seat belts, propelling LiDAR into the mainstream. Camera-only systems have been linked to crashes with stationary emergency vehicles and unexpected road hazards, as reported by The Wall Street Journal in 2024.
In contrast, LiDAR outperform cameras by cutting through glare and darkness, while accurately detecting irregular small objects and other corner cases with unmatched 3D clarity and perception. Research shows that integrating LiDAR into a vehicle can reduce severe accidents by up to 20% and improve overall crash avoidance by up to 9%. As reported by Li Auto last quarter, their active safety features have prevented over 3 million potential accidents, including 516 severe accidents.
In the race toward higher levels of autonomous driving, while safety is paramount, LiDAR aren't just a nice-to-have; they are a game-changer, actively protecting you and your loved ones on the road. Second, LiDAR do more than just keeping you safe. They supercharge advanced driving features like urban NOA, chassis tuning, and automated parking. In urban NOA, nearly 100% of the models use LiDAR for precise perception, enabling smooth lane changes and obstacle avoidance in complex environments.
For chassis tuning, LiDAR scans the road in real time, detecting conditions up to 150 meters ahead, including speed bumps and potholes. It then adjusts the suspension for better battery efficiency and ride comfort. In automated parking, LiDAR accurately maps the space and detects obstacles, offering robust performance in low-light conditions and ensuring precise safe parking even in the tightest spots. Our client, Leapmotor, recently said, "True high-level intelligent driving starts with LiDAR."
Finally, LiDAR are more than just a technical advancement. They are a statement of style and sophistication. Cars with LiDAR are seen as premium, cutting-edge, and safer. That is why Chinese carmakers are positioning LiDAR in front and center, showcasing it as a badge of innovation. A perfect example is Great Wall Motor's WEY Lanshan, one of China's largest shippers, which launched in August 2024 with our AT128 LiDAR as a standard. The result? Sales explosion.
By December 2024, monthly sales surpassed 8,000 units, three times the sales of the previous model that did not feature LiDAR. These core benefits are driving LiDAR into the spotlight, earning recognition from both OEMs and consumers alike. We are committed to lowering the barrier to LiDAR adoption and driving technological equality. ATX LiDAR, our category-defining product, delivers unbeatable cost-performance priced at just $200.
Equipping vehicle models starting as low as RMB 100,000, it offers OEMs a budget-friendly LiDAR solution designed to drive widespread adoption. With mass production kicking off in Q1 2025, the ATX LiDAR has already secured design wins with 11 OEMs, fueling the democratization of vehicle intelligence. This is opening doors, bringing new clients and converting others from rival suppliers.
We are particularly proud of our client partnerships with Chery, which is one of China's top three automakers and a major automotive group that includes the VOYAH premium EV brand. VOYAH's flagship electric MPV is a market powerhouse, shipping over 10,000 units per month. Production for these exciting wins kicks off in the second half of 2025 and is expected to accelerate in 2026.
In addition, our order book continues to diversify and expand as we forge new relationships and strengthen existing ones. In February, BYD, the world's largest EV maker, announced that all its models will feature next-generation ADAS, making it accessible to everyone. LiDAR will power two variants of the system, which is key from urban to highway NOA. We've deepened our collaboration with BYD and will supply LiDAR for more than 10 of its models, set for mass production in 2025.
This is just the beginning. Our momentum is unstoppable. We've also secured exclusive AT128 LiDAR design wins with Great Wall Motor and Changan Automobile, two of the top 10 Chinese automakers, covering multiple top-performing brands, including bestsellers like Qiyuan and WEY, slated for mass production in 2025. This marks a major leap for us, accelerating LiDAR adoption in mass-market vehicles and vastly expanding our total addressable market.
Building on our stellar domestic ADAS performance, we are thrilled to announce yet another major milestone as we expand further onto the global stage. We are beyond excited to be awarded a new groundbreaking exclusive design win with a top European OEM, further deepening our collaboration. This multi-year program will last into the next decade across both ICE and EV platforms, marking it the largest global program for the automotive LiDAR industry.
This long-term partnership is a resounding endorsement of our unmatched performance and quality. Meeting the rigorous standards of a global market leader, our quality has become our name card, a powerful symbol of excellence and a vote of confidence in our visionary future. As we continue to push the boundaries of innovation, our unwavering commitment to delivering unparalleled quality and exceptional products propels us towards an even more exciting future. Our momentum is real.
As of today, we have already secured design wins for 120 vehicle models across 22 OEMs worldwide, including the remarkable 9 out of the top 10 largest automakers by market cap in China. It's just a win. That's a statement. A statement of industry leadership, trust, and the sheer power of our cutting-edge technology. In 2025, with demand surging, we're launching new production lines in Q1, which will begin production in Q3. By the end of the year, our annualized production capacity is expected to reach 2 million units.
We are not just building LiDAR. We're reshaping the future of mobility. We are bringing intelligence and safety to everyone and everywhere. This isn't just innovation. It's a movement. We're leading it. Meanwhile, enormous opportunities await us beyond the ADAS sector. We're taking our mechanical LiDAR solutions to the next level, expanding into the broader robotics market.
Our newly launched JT Mini LiDAR is already redefining robotics navigation with its innovative hyperhemispherical field of view ultra-light compact design. It's ideal for a diverse range of robotics applications: humanoid robots, delivery robots, cleaning robots, AGVs, port and yard automation, stationary applications, and many more possibilities we're exploring. We've also capitalized on the booming robotics market with the JT LiDAR.
We are thrilled to announce a partnership with a leading smart home robotics company for Mova Robotics lawnmowers, forecasting to deliver a six-digit order in 2025. This order book is expected to grow at client expense into new models launching in 2026 and beyond. Additionally, JT has also secured orders from Agtonomy, the autonomous agriculture vehicle solution partner, to the world's largest manufacturer of compact construction equipment. This further cements JT as the go-to choice for the booming robotics market.
We're only beginning to unlock its full potential. Building on the strong momentum of our JT series, we have also made significant strides in broader robotics applications. In Q4 2024 alone, beyond JT, we shipped approximately 7,000 robotic LiDAR units to L4 customers, powering thousands of autonomous vehicles. Our robotic LiDAR is fueling the robotaxi boom, transforming industrial automation and pushing the boundaries of autonomy. We are the exclusive long-range LiDAR supplier for all of China's top five robotaxi companies, including Baidu's Apollo Go.
We are also the sole supplier for a leading global robotaxi player, which clocked nearly a million autonomous miles in 2024 and is set for significant fleet expansion in 2025, all powered by our Pandar and QT series. Beyond mobility, our XT series LiDAR is driving advanced 3D vision for Unitree, robots, and automating in-plant driving systems at BMW factories. These partnerships unite industry leaders in autonomous driving and sensing technology, paving the way for the future of robotics.
Finally, I would like to extend my gratitude to our incredible team for an outstanding year. While we've made huge strides, we know this is just the beginning of an exhilarating journey. We are on a mission to redefine the future of mobility and revolutionize robotics with our cutting-edge technology. As we continue to push boundaries, I'm confident that our innovations will not only reshape how people and goods move, but also unlock opportunities of growth, efficiency, and sustainability. I will now turn the call over to Andrew to share more details on our financial performance and outlook. Andrew, please go ahead.
Thank you, David. And hello, everyone. Let's go through our operating and financial figures for the fourth quarter and the full year 2024. To be mindful of the length of our earnings call today, I encourage listeners to refer to our fourth quarter earnings release for further details. Beginning with the numbers for the full year 2024, our net revenues increased to a record high of RMB 2 billion, or $285 million, the highest in the global industry. Shipments in 2024 exceeded 500,000 units, more than doubling 2023's total, highlighting our robust growth trajectory.
December was a particularly strong month as we set an industry first with 100,000 monthly shipments, a stellar achievement, especially when compared to global peers who are still shipping in the lower thousands per quarter or even per year. Of the 100,000 units shipped in December, over 20,000 were delivered to our rapidly expanding robotics business, marking a significant leap forward for this booming market.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, our blended gross margin remained healthy at 39%, down from the third quarter, primarily due to a decrease in higher margin NRE revenues and a shift in product mix toward ADAS shipments. More importantly, we hit a pivotal milestone with our business turning profitable. We are extremely proud to be the world's first LiDAR company to achieve full-year non-GAAP net profits of RMB 14 million, or $1.9 million, marking a significant leap from our non-GAAP net loss of RMB 241 million, or $34 million in 2023.
At the same time, we further cemented our industry-leading financial strength with full-year positive operating cash flow of RMB 63 million, or $8.6 million. Fourth quarter 2024 was a standout quarter, driving a strong inflow of operating cash flow at RMB 641 million, or $88 million. These accomplishments not only validated our business model but also solidified our leadership in the LiDAR market, demonstrating how innovation and a strong financial performance can go hand in hand as we continue to drive the future of autonomous technology.
Looking ahead to 2025, we are preparing for another strong year that will reinforce our market leadership and drive further market share gains. We expect net revenues for the full year to be between RMB 3.0 billion, or $411 million, to RMB 3.5 billion, or $480 million, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 44%-69%. This growth will be driven by total shipments projected to reach 1.2-1.5 million units, with over 80% of units coming from the ADAS sector.
A key driver of our rapid shipment growth is the increasing adoption of our newly released ATX LiDAR, a category-defining LiDAR priced at approximately $200. It has quickly gained traction with OEMs, increasingly adopting it as a standard feature or integrated into mass-market vehicles. We anticipate it will contribute between the high six digits and nearly 1 million units to total shipments in 2025.
While positioned as a lower-priced offering to accelerate mass-market penetration, the ATX cost structure has been carefully optimized with 100% of the key components designed in-house, ensuring that we maintain a healthy margin for this product. Our LiDAR are also gaining tremendous momentum in the robotics market, driven by the newly launched JT series, our mini 3D mechanical LiDAR, now seeing strong adoption across AGVs, service robots, stationary solutions, and more.
We are excited to have secured a major multi-year order for Mova Robotics lawnmowers from a leading smart home robotic company, with six-digit shipments of JT expected in 2025. Mass production of the JT series began in December 2024, with over 20,000 units shipped in the first month alone. We anticipate its average gross margin to align with our existing mechanical LiDAR, reinforcing its strong financial contributions.
Meanwhile, our Pandar and XT series LiDAR continue to power a wide range of robotics applications, such as robotaxi and industrial automation. With pricing for our robotic LiDAR, including the JT, XT, and Pandar series, ranging from the low thousands to over RMB 100,000, we provide a versatile portfolio to meet diverse robotics needs. Robotics LiDAR shipments are expected to reach nearly 200,000 units in 2025, marking a major milestone in our robotics expansion.
Lastly, for the first quarter of 2025, we expect net revenues to be between RMB 520 million, or $71 million, and RMB 540 million, or $74 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 45%-50%, with a total shipment volume of approximately 200,000 units. We expect the revenue and shipment momentum to strengthen progressively each quarter throughout the year. In terms of our blended gross margins, we expect a full-year target of around 40%.
At the same time, we will continue to strategically invest in R&D to enhance the competitiveness of our technologies and strengthen product roadmaps while maintaining disciplined cost controls. This balanced strategy drives us toward incredible success. We are forecasting GAAP profitability to reach RMB 200-350 million, with non-GAAP profitability soaring to RMB 350-500 million, an astounding 25-35 times our 2024 non-GAAP profits.
This explosive growth not only sets the stage for unstoppable growth but also cements our path to long-term industry leadership. This concludes our prepared remarks today. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you would like to cancel your request, please press star two. If you are on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. For the benefit of all participants on today's call, if you would like to ask a question to management in Chinese, please immediately repeat your question in English. For the sake of clarity and order, please ask one question at a time. Management will respond and then feel free to follow up with your next question. Your first question today comes from Tim Hsiao from MS. Please go ahead.
Tim Hsiao (Greater China Auto Analyst)
Hi, this is Tim from Morgan Stanley. Congratulations on the great results and thanks for taking the questions. I actually just have one question about the guidance. Because during the presentation just now, I think David and Andrew shared the robust revenue and volume guidance for the full year 2025.
Given similar moving factors, could you please share more detailed guidance about how a quarterly volume trajectory would look like, product mix of the ATX or the AT512, potential impact on the ASP erosion, as well as the gross margin trend throughout the whole year 2025? I think Andrew mentioned gross profit margin was set at a healthy level. What is the healthy level Andrew referred to? Is that 40%? In the meantime, we noticed that 2025 would be another profitable year. Just want to double-confirm that we should expect every quarter, including first quarter in the low season, to see profit-making. Yeah, that's my question. Thank you.
Andrew Fan (CFO)
Thank you, Tim. Let me take this question. Regarding our guidance for first quarter 2025, revenue-wise, we expect to have a revenue between RMB 520-540 million, a strong year-over-year increase of 45%-50%, mainly driven by the rapid adoption of LiDAR in passenger cars in China. However, quarter-over-quarter growth was lower due to seasonal factors. Regarding volume and ASPs, we expect the first quarter 2025 shipments to reach approximately 200,000 units, with quarterly volumes increasing sequentially throughout the year.
This number is also similar to our Q4 volume. In Q1, the AT128 is expected to have an annual price decline to the teens from $400 in 2024 to around $350 this year, while remaining the majority of the ADAS shipments in Q1. Meanwhile, the ATX priced at approximately $200 has begun shipping in Q1. Additionally, a higher-priced ultra-high-performance AT product series will be priced around $500 and is set to enter SOP in Q2 this year. Gross profit margins-wise, we expect it to be close to 40%, considering the large contribution from ADAS shipments in Q1.
Profitability-wise, despite the seasonality in Q1, we anticipate a year-over-year improvement in net loss of approximately 50%, with a rebound to profitability expected in Q2. The break-even point will be between Q1 and Q2. For the full-year guidance, revenue-wise, reflecting the strong demand from both ADAS and robotics, we are forecasting RMB 3 billion-RMB 3.5 billion in revenues for 2025, with ADAS accounting for roughly 60%-65% in total revenues.
Volume, we are expecting 1.2 million-1.5 million total shipments in 2025, based on our customer forecast, i.e., 1.0 million-1.3 million units from ADAS and nearly 200,000 from robotics. For ADAS segments, we have discussed multiple industry trends during our Earnings Call, where LiDAR adoption is skyrocketing as more customers recognize the three core values of LiDAR, making cars safer, smarter, and more desirable than ever. In recent quarters, we have secured significant design wins for new car models SOP in 2025 and beyond.
Some of our major customers' top-selling models, including those from Li Auto, Xiaomi, BYD, and Leapmotor, are driving LiDAR into the mainstream. Additionally, some of our clients are adopting LiDAR as a standard configuration starting 2025. For 2025, we will have three variations from AT in production. The first is the current AT series, which will experience a moderate annual decline in ASP in teens to reach around $350. The second is the ultra-high-performance AT, designed to meet L3 standards, which will enjoy a higher price tag around $500.
Lastly, the cost-effective compact ATX, priced at $200, has begun its production in Q1, with some best-selling car models adopting it as a standard configuration in 2025. Tapping into the mass-market vehicles, the ATX is projected to shift between high six digits to 1 million units in 2025. Expected long-term content per vehicle remains $500-$1,000, with the introduction of L3 as more LiDAR units will be adopted per car for all-around safety.
Regarding our robotics segment, the robotics market is surging. Our JT, XT, QT, and Pandar series LiDAR, ranging from low thousands to over RMB 100,000, are in high demand across consumer robotics, industrial automation, robotaxi, and various other robotics applications. For example, JT has already secured a multi-year order from Mova for robotic mowers, with projected 60,000 deliveries in 2025. As such, we anticipate delivering nearly 200,000 units of robotics LiDAR in 2025.
Production capacity: as of now, we have two production facilities in operation, one in Shanghai and one in Hangzhou. Driven by the strong demand, we are launching new production lines in Q1, which will begin production in Q3. By the end of 2025, our annualized production capacity is expected to reach 2 million units. Full-year gross profit margins: we are confident that our blended gross margin will stay healthy, thanks to effective cost management and our flywheel approach of cost and scale optimization.
Also, we expect the robotics segment to contribute significantly to our margin profile. The 2025 blended gross profit margin is expected to be around 40%. Net profit: we are setting the pace, projecting GAAP profitability to hit RMB 200-350 million, while non-GAAP profits are set to skyrocket to RMB 350-500 million, an incredible 25-35 times our 2024 non-GAAP earnings. Hopefully, that will address Tim's question.
Tim Hsiao (Greater China Auto Analyst)
Thank you so much for your deep answers. That's super helpful. That's all from me. Thank you.
Andrew Fan (CFO)
Thank you, Tim.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Your next question comes from Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Tina Hou (Vice Presiden)
Hi, management. Congratulations on the strong result and strong guidance for 2025. I have two questions. The first one is, in terms of the robotics LiDAR market, I understand it's growing very fast, and it's just an emerging market. Longer term, how should we think about the potential time and size of this market? Also, longer term, do we expect the margin also to remain at such high levels, or do we see the margin more normalized to the similar level as our ADAS LiDAR when there is a very mass adoption for robotics?
That's my first question. The second question is regarding our cost reduction. I understand with the ATX, we've successfully reduced costs by quite a lot, around 50% versus the AT128. Just wondering, going forward, how much more room for cost reduction there is, and then through what kind of technology advancement are we achieving these cost reductions? Thanks.
Andrew Fan (CFO)
Okay. Thank you. Let me first answer your question regarding the robotics market. Beyond ADAS, the robotics market presents enormous opportunities. The TAM in these areas is expected to be a major growth driver for us in the future, potentially even several times larger than the TAM of our passenger vehicle business. Take the robotics market as an example.
The adoption of LiDAR in this space is accelerating rapidly. By the end of 2024, we saw a surge in demand for robotic lawnmowers, one of the emerging verticals, and our LiDAR are also driving advanced 3D vision for unitree robots. In December alone, we shipped over 20,000 LiDAR units for robotics applications. Apple recently unveiled a robot demo featuring 40 ToF LiDAR sensors, signaling that humanoid robots and similar technologies will see widespread LiDAR adoption in the future.
Beyond robotics, LiDAR is also gaining traction in stationary applications like airports, ports, and factories. A great example is our recent work where our XT series LiDAR powers in-plant driving systems at BMW's factory. As LiDAR technology continues to mature, we expect more robotic verticals, potentially dozens or even hundreds. Each will bring new growth opportunities to us.
These non-automotive sectors not only offer vast market potential but also come with higher margins. With over a decade of LiDAR R&D and deep expertise built from complex L4 applications, we have established strong advantages in both product performance and cost control. Additionally, we are integrating ASIC technologies into mechanical LiDAR, further enhancing our technology and cost leadership in this robotics segment. Take our newly launched JT product, for example.
We are excited to spotlight the JT Mini LiDAR, which debuted at CES 2025 and is quickly becoming a top choice for robotics. It's 70% smaller than similar products, making it incredibly easy to integrate. Plus, it boasts the widest hyper-hemispherical 360 field of view, giving robots unmatched spatial awareness to navigate complex environments and making it ideal for everything from humanoid robots to delivery robots, cleaning robots, AGVs, and industrial automation.
Adoption is taking off. In just the first month of mass production in December 2024, we shipped over 20,000 units, and our partnership with Mova for robotic lawnmowers is expected to generate a six-digit order next year. Regarding pricing, the JT is priced at low to mid thousands RMB. As you can imagine, the cost structure is much more efficient than the other mechanical LiDAR. Therefore, we expect the gross margins for these robotic spaces will be similar, if not better, than our other mechanical LiDAR products. That's the answer to your first question.
David Li (CEO)
Hi. This is David. Hello. Can you hear me?
Tina Hou (Vice Presiden)
Yes.
Andrew Fan (CFO)
Yes.
David Li (CEO)
Oh, hi. Hi, Tina. I also want to add to your question on the discussion of the gross margin between LiDAR for robotics versus LiDAR for ADAS. I think it's a very interesting question. I want to answer that by giving you a few angles. The first one is that the nature for ADAS LiDAR, especially what we're talking about, ATX for level 2++, this type of applications, the nature is that it's a safety part. It's like an airbag or an invisible seatbelt, meaning that it's there, but the chance of you needing that is very, very rare.
It's only in one of the millions of chances you need it. For that, you want things to be more affordable, and you want it to be standard. That's why it's close to a very competitive price. The nature for robotics LiDAR is a different nature. It's not there to be the invisible airbag. Instead, it's the functional parts, meaning that it's taking on a much bigger responsibility for that application, which means that such a technology is creating a lot of value. For example, if you think about the robotic lawnmowers, it's for navigation purposes.
If you don't have the best LiDAR, there's a chance that your lawnmower will get lost, which means that every integrator of such a technology has the incentive to use the best ones, which can be translated directly to gross margin. The other reason is for commercial reasons. Truth be told, that in the ADAS market, it's still a reasonably concentrated market to the top three to five players. If you look at a robotics market, the nature is that we have a platform technology.
We have a standardized product like JT, but we never said JT was for lawnmowers. It was for really many things: for humanoid, for traffic monitoring, for forklift, for AGVs, and for port and all in all, which means that each of the customers is really a tiny fraction of the entire customer base of such a product, which, again, in commercial logic, it translates to higher margin because we're also a tiny part of their bot.
With those two reasons combined, we actually firmly believe not only the robotic LiDAR are going to be a more diversified, bigger market, as well as we focus on the core technology of ASIC and advanced manufacturing to drive the platform. Of course, we already see we also strongly believe in the longer term that this is going to be a high-margin product, and it will continue that way, as we see in many other technologies that have very diversified customer base. I hope this helps the question of the first part.
Tina Hou (Vice Presiden)
Thanks, Andrew, David. That's very helpful.
David Li (CEO)
Okay. Was that another question, or?
Tina Hou (Vice Presiden)
Yes. The second one is regarding further cost reduction, technology innovation, cost reduction.
David Li (CEO)
Okay. Sure, sure. I think you're probably referring to the discussion between ATX and the L3 AT platform, right? I think in the longer term, those are actually very different trends. First, I guess we should talk about ATX, which is your main question. The short answer is that we don't see a lot of room for this ATX platform to continue to even half of the current price because it's just not the nature of such a technology.
First of all, we obviously factor in all the economics of scale when we design such a product because we know it has to reach to the $200 level for this to be practical. The ATX isn't really like a price reduction version of AT128. It's actually an entirely new product, and it's a new design process with our fourth-generation ASIC and with the most advanced in-house processes we have, with a strong focus to reduce the size and the cost while still enhancing the core capability of such a product and maintaining a reasonable gross margin for such a product.
When we look at the longer term of such an invisible airbag, invisible seatbelt product, we feel like it's serving a very sweet spot for the function it delivers. In other words, if we try to further reduce the cost, it's really cutting into a safety part that we don't want to. For safety purposes, the highest priority is always the function and the reliability it delivers, which today we feel like it's at the right balance. Of course, when we plan ATX and it's already at the volume, we believe it's right as an airbag.
That's why we will continue to evolve the technology to make it better and better, but we don't see this price point being further erosion. Having said that, I also wanted to point out that the L3 LiDAR are actually going to be in a different category, which is around $500 and up, depending on the performance. The reason that the L3 is paying for a much higher price is not only because of the design of the system. It's also because of the value proposition of such a product.
For L3 products, we're really looking at the value created by the vehicle that is much bigger than the level 2++, which is some urban and NOA and the safety belt. For L3, you're looking at a completely new function that most OEMs believe the customers are willing to pay a significant additional money for. For that reason, they actually need the best L3 LiDAR to go with that function.
That's why it's a much more expensive, much higher-performance LiDAR. Still, with the fourth-generation semiconductor platform, we also see great value proposition for such a product, but it will never go to the $200 level. It will stay at the $500 above, depending on the function.
Tina Hou (Vice Presiden)
Thanks, David. That's very helpful. That's all my questions.
David Li (CEO)
All right. Thank you, Tina, for the great question.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Your next question comes from Jessie Lo from Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.
Jessie Lo (Director of Equity Research)
Hi, David, Andrew. Thank you for taking my question and congrats on the very brilliant result. Our number one question is I want to ask one of the very frequently asked questions is also something David just has commented. People think that the ASP decline would potentially growth in the next few years, potentially on the ADAS market. As you mentioned, L3 is completely different, and there might be charging for a $500 kind of price for the OEM and consumers.
I guess that is that a question back to regulatory change? Because currently, the responsibility is still back to the driver themselves. Let's say if they further open up such responsibility, are we seeing a bigger potential in this market in the longer term? That's my first question. Thank you.
David Li (CEO)
Thank you. Let me try to make sure I understand your question. Your questions, you want us to multiply the projected ASP times the volume, and your worry is that the ASP will continue to decline, right? First, I think my previous answer hopefully was clear that it was declining in the past because we did not reach the volume to justify the economics of scale. Today, we believe both the $200 and the $500 are already at the steady-state price, which means that I do not believe this is further going down to a $100 level or below $500 level for the other LiDAR.
This is what we clearly see. That is number one, right? Number two is the penetration rate. If you look at the history of the penetration rate for the past two, three years, it's clearly more than doubling every year for the entire market and is also for us. If you look at our volume, we've been doubling, more than doubling our volume for the past four or five years. For the entire market, it's also a similar trend, which means that one factor is at its bottom and it will stay there, and the other factor is growing.
The penetration rate we expect to continue to a much higher level, especially for the level 2++, which is really a safety belt. If you think about safety belt, in the end, our belief is that every car needs to have such a device, no matter which level you're talking about.
Jessie Lo (Director of Equity Research)
Yeah, sure. Thank you so much.
Andrew Fan (CFO)
I want to add. Can I add a little bit? Sorry, Jess, to add a little bit on top of David's answers. To summarize, regarding the historical decline of ASP, but our gross profit margin has remained stable and even improving. Therefore, when we provided the guidance for 2025, both the revenue line and also the gross profit line, we have already factored in this decline of ASP. Under the current projection of the ASP trend, we're still confident that we can achieve a healthy gross profit margin of around 40%. Just this one final point to add.
Jessie Lo (Director of Equity Research)
Sure. Thank you.
David Li (CEO)
I think Andrew made a great point that even though we repeated it over time, I still want to emphasize the fact that most of the fear in the past is that when we go down in ASP, are we able to continue to innovate on the ASIC and optimize the manufacturing and the supply chain to keep our gross margin steady? I think the answer is yes, and we have done it, especially considering that we do not believe the ASP will continue to go down. The certainty on the gross margin is very high. Okay?
Jessie Lo (Director of Equity Research)
Got it. Thank you so much.
David Li (CEO)
Thank you.
Jessie Lo (Director of Equity Research)
My another question would be on the robotics side. We have already quite successful with the mower and Agtonomy. I think currently, humanoid robots still yield the biggest excitement. What other kind of outlook can we be looking forward to on this robotic segment, especially the humanoid robots?
David Li (CEO)
Sure. I'll quickly answer this question. When we're talking about humanoid, we're really talking about different types of LiDAR. The first one is for humanoid to do localization, meaning you need to know where the humanoid, the robot is. The GT is actually perfect, and we work with quite a few players in this domain already. There are other sensors that we don't have today, but we don't believe it's the type of LiDAR we do. For example, if you think about the hand, it needs to know what it's grasping.
It's a different type of a 3D sensor. It's technically still LiDAR, but it's a different type of LiDAR than what we did producing. We definitely see a lot of opportunity for humanoid to leverage the mechanical LiDAR solution we've developed. The truth is that I think humanoid robots are still also in its early phase for the revolution on the design. Our strategy is to continue to leverage our platform semiconductor technology to build what's the best fit for the humanoid technology. Because our biggest strength is not LiDAR itself, it's the core platform semiconductor we have. This leadership will always be our biggest strength.
Jessie Lo (Director of Equity Research)
Got it. Thank you so much, David and Andrew. Thank you.
David Li (CEO)
Thank you. Yeah. Any other questions?
Jessie Lo (Director of Equity Research)
That's all from me. Thank you.
David Li (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Your next question comes from Jia Lu from BOCI.
Hello, management. Thank you for taking my question. My first question is regarding the ADAS LiDAR adoption pace in overseas markets. Actually, glad to see that we got an exclusive design win with a top European OEM recently. Since electrification in European markets seems slower than expected, and we know that LiDAR adoption is closely related to smart EV popularity, how do we expect our ADAS LiDAR growth prospects in overseas markets in coming years?
David Li (CEO)
Great. I'll take this question. This is David again. If you read our announcement carefully, I think the first thing that's interesting to everyone is that it's not only the EV, it's the ICE and the EV, which means really all the vehicles. We want to make it clear because, look, LiDAR is for ADAS, but it's really decoupled from the electrification technology.
That's why the top European carmakers we work with, and it's a major program lasting to the next decade, a global program, meaning it shifts not only to China and also outside China to many countries around the world, and it's across their offerings from EV to ICE. This is really the trend we see. We shouldn't be limited by the concept of EV when we think about LiDAR. LiDAR is really for all the new vehicles who want to have the future of invisible airbags and the seatbelts. That is why we're limited by that.
The other great thing is that the other global program we already have, they will start shipping by the end of this year, and it will start to be, again, a global program inside and outside China.
Oh, got it. Any quantitative guidance for our overseas LiDAR shipment?
Sorry, we don't have this number to offer yet, but we will work with the OEM on an announcement on the specific numbers and the schedules and the car models.
Oh, got it. This OEM shipment will start next year?
We'll start it by the end of this year and go into larger volume next year. It will last all the way to the next decade.
Okay, got it. My second question is regarding the long-term competitive landscape of the ADAS LiDAR market. Yeah, since now we are exclusively LiDAR suppliers for our key clients such as Li Auto, Xiaomi, is there any possibility that along with their LiDAR shipment surge, these key OEMs will find another supplier for LiDAR, or they will remain relying on us as the only LiDAR supplier? In other words, how should we expect our market share in the ADAS LiDAR market upside?
First of all, obviously, no OEMs will commit forever using only one supplier, right? No one would ever say something like that. There is always a chance that even though it is exclusive for now, they will continue to evaluate everyone. We encourage them to do so. I think the biggest competitive edge is not only that we have ongoing relationships and we are designing it, the switch cost is high. More importantly, it is the competitiveness, right? In different countries, the competitiveness is defined differently.
For our global customers, it is the performance leadership. They always want the best quality, best performance, and that is why they pick us exclusively. In China, honestly, it is price. You need to be very price competitive. We have been very competitive. Make no mistake, price competitive does not mean that we lose margin. If you look at the margin we compare to our peers, I think it's fair to say that we have a pretty good leadership, which means that as long as we keep our costs down, as long as we keep innovating on the semiconductor, we will always have a sizable gap than our peers.
It is really difficult for customers to pick somebody who is more expensive and inferior and somebody they never worked with. You probably shouldn't do that. That is how we try to maintain our leadership.
Okay, got it. That's all for me. Thank you.
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Your next question comes from Yu Zhang from Huatai Securities. Please go ahead.
Yu Zhang (Senior Equity Analyst)
Hello, management. Thanks for taking my question. My first question is about the guidance. We see a very strong guidance from the company with the shipment increase over 1.2 million and the profits reaching RMB 200 million-RMB 350 million in the GAAP. How to achieve the above guidance? 我想问一下，就是公司给了一个非常强劲的指引，出货量比去年上次三季度还是上调了这个20-50万台的这个激光雷达的出货量，包括也给了很清晰的盈利的指引。想问一下我们是怎么看到就是有这个更清晰的这个出货量的目标的？谢谢。
Andrew Fan (CFO)
谢谢张总。但我就用英文这个来回答了。 As we provided our guidance in the earnings release, the top line growth, we are quite confident of the guidance between RMB 3.0 billion-RMB 3.5 billion. That is based on the orders from our various clients that have already provided. The reason why this volume growth is quite strong is because our top customers, including Li Auto, Xiaomi, BYD, and Leapmotor, all increased their sales targets and also the LiDAR adoption rate in year 2025.
Some car models have been setting LiDAR as standard configuration. That is how we got our revenue guidance. With the 40% gross margin assumed, we are going to have about additional, we are going to have generated an additional of RMB 400 million-RMB 600 million in gross profit. That is the improvement to net profit at GP level. Regarding the expenses management in year 2025, we are committed to elevating expenses management to new heights, ensuring enhanced efficiency and financial discipline.
We expect that our total OpEx to be slightly lower than year 2024. If you look at our financial statements in 2024, our total OpEx is close to RMB 1.4 billion in year 2024. We expect that this number in year 2025 will be lower. If you take these two factors together, it is not so difficult to get to the bottom line level number, which is a GAAP net profit of about RMB 200-350 million and a non-GAAP net profit of about RMB 350-500 million. That is my answer to your questions regarding that profits guidance.
Yu Zhang (Senior Equity Analyst)
Oh, thanks very much. My second question is about the robotics applications. Why the LiDAR will be used in the robotics for a long time and what's the primary function in the robotics system? 就是我们还是很好奇为什么机器人上要就是用激光雷达，因为在汽车领域，车是一个高速行驶的这个物体。就是机器人是为什么我们看到在激光雷达上就是应用也这么广泛？谢谢。
David Li (CEO)
Yeah, I'll take this question. I understand your logic, but let me give you a counter example. The easiest example to counter your argument is the robotic vacuum cleaner, right? You would think that is so slow and so cheap and it really doesn't kill people when it bumps into things. Yet every new robotic vacuum cleaner has a LiDAR. Of course, it's not a LiDAR from us, it's a much cheaper one. You think about why would they do that? The answer is very simple. It has certain functions.
You need to do SLAM, meaning that you need to create a map, you need to know where that is. Yet if you use cameras to do that, it's not a great product. They need a very good LiDAR to do that. Of course, that function needs to map, the price needs to match that function. Similarly, with humanoids, the robot, it still needs to map what's around you. Even though you think it's slow, it's still very costly when you trip on something or you bump into something or miss grabbing an egg or a bottle or something.
In the end, it's not about 2D versus 3D, it's about how much it costs on 3D versus whether I need this 3D to create valuable function for me. Again, whatever you think about it, think about the robotic vacuum cleaner, okay?
Yu Zhang (Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay, thanks. That's very helpful. That's all my questions, thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Your next question comes from Sia Huang from SPDBI. Please go ahead.
Sia Huang (Equity Research Associate in Tech and NEV)
Hi, management team. Thanks for taking my question. This is Xia from SPDBI. I've just got one question on our capacity and CapEx plan. Since demand seems strong in both auto and robotics sectors, and as you mentioned, we are now launching new product lines. My question is, do we have an updated CapEx plan in 2025 and 2026?
Andrew Fan (CFO)
Sure, I'll take this question. With this strong demand, our CapEx in year 2025 will mainly be used to launch our new production lines, both domestically and globally. We are launching two new production lines in Q1 in China, which will begin production in Q3 this year. By the end of 2025, our annualized production capacity is expected to reach about 2 million units. We believe that this production capacity can satisfy our demand in this year.
Meanwhile, as our collaboration with global carmakers deepens, for example, our exclusive contract with the top European OEM, as David just mentioned, we may consider the possibility of establishing overseas manufacturing facilities in Southeast Asia in the future. We have already developed preliminary plans and are taking steps towards the target.
Furthermore, our highly automated production technology enables us to set up an overseas production line with well-managed CapEx numbers and in a relatively short time period. Hence, we expect 2025 full year CapEx should be around $30 million-$50 million in total. We have sufficient financial resources to support this CapEx.
Sia Huang (Equity Research Associate in Tech and NEV)
Oh, that's very clear. Thank you.
Andrew Fan (CFO)
Thank you, Sia.
Sia Huang (Equity Research Associate in Tech and NEV)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Unfortunately, that does conclude our time for questions. I'll now hand back to the company for any closing remarks.
Yuanting Shi (Head of Capital Markets)
Thank you once again for joining us today. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact our IR team. This concludes today's call, and we look forward to speaking to you again next quarter. Thank you and goodbye.
Operator (participant)
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.