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Solana Co (HSDT)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 revenue was $0.697M, driven by first-time staking rewards income of $0.342M; EPS was -$32.89, and net loss was $352.8M, largely due to a $545.7M loss on derivative liability and $194.7M financing costs related to September’s PIPE, partially offset by a $423.3M gain on the derivative liability remeasurement .
  • Results materially beat Wall Street consensus: revenue beat $0.11M estimate and EPS (-$32.89) beat (-$50.5) estimate; prior quarters show revenue misses but EPS beats on a very small share base and reverse splits (see Estimates Context)*
  • Strategic pivot to a Solana-focused digital asset treasury (DAT) advanced: SOL holdings rose to over 2.3M tokens, average staking yield was 7.03% APY, and average SOL cost basis improved to ~$220 vs ~$240 at launch .
  • Capital allocation catalysts: launched ATM program and approved a stock repurchase program up to $100M; issued cash-exercise warrants enabling up to $750M additional capital raise, potentially increasing flexibility and support for MNAV premiums/discounts .
  • Clinical/regulatory: positive stroke clinical outcomes for PoNS and submission for FDA 510(k) label expansion; management cited increased VA and cash sales and additional reimbursements, providing optionality beyond the DAT strategy .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • SOL accumulation and staking execution: holdings increased to >2.3M SOL; gross staking yield averaged 7.03% APY in October, ~36 bps above top-10 validators, with automatic restaking and MEV capture . Quote: “This staking yield translates to consistent daily on-chain revenue generation while preserving full liquidity and custody of underlying assets.” — Cosmo Jiang .
  • Accretive capital markets toolkit: ATM launch, buyback authorization, and evaluation of convertibles/warrant-linked financings to maximize SOL per share; selective M&A when DATs trade below 1x MNAV . Quote: “We are focused on ensuring that every financing decision… is structured to be accretive… [to] increase SOL per share” — Cosmo Jiang .
  • Advocacy and institutional positioning: significant media presence (CNBC/Bloomberg), APAC outreach with Solana Foundation, and growing investor awareness; HSDT framed as “public gateway to Solana” . Quote: “Solana… processes close to 80 million transactions per day… native staking yield of more than 7%… built for institutional adoption.” — Joseph Chee .

What Went Wrong

  • Massive GAAP net loss: Q3 net loss of $352.8M due to PIPE-related derivative liability valuation (-$545.7M) and financing costs (-$194.7M), despite a $423.3M derivative liability gain; loss from operations was -$35.5M .
  • Unrealized digital asset losses: $30.5M unrealized loss on digital assets, adding volatility to reported results and MNAV tracking .
  • OpEx step-up and limited sell-through: SG&A rose to $4.6M (incl. $1.5M discretionary bonus); R&D $0.9M; product sales remained low pre-DAT (Q2 revenue $0.043M), indicating commercial scale-up still early relative to spend . Additionally, no Q&A participation on the call implies limited analyst engagement and potential coverage gaps .

Financial Results

Revenue and EPS vs prior periods and estimates

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.051 $0.049*$0.043 $0.697
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$744.35 -$391.72*-$79.73 -$32.89
Revenue Consensus ($USD Millions)n/a$0.100*$0.075*$0.110*
EPS Consensus ($USD)n/a-$435.00*-$128.50*-$50.50*

Values with an asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

P&L components (YoY comparables)

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.051 $0.697
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)-$0.136 $0.594
Gross Margin (%)-266.7% (computed from -$0.136/$0.051) 85.2% (computed from $0.594/$0.697)
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$3.934 $36.044
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)-$4.070 -$35.450
Non-operating (loss) income ($USD Millions)$0.384 -$317.318
Net Loss ($USD Millions)-$3.686 -$352.768

Revenue mix (Q3 2025)

ComponentQ3 2025 ($USD Millions)
Staking rewards$0.342
Other revenue$0.355
Total$0.697

KPIs and Balance Sheet Snapshot

KPIQ3 2025
SOL holdings (# tokens)>2.3M
Average staking yield (Oct)7.03% APY
Average SOL cost basis~$220 vs ~$240 at launch
Cash$124.0M
Digital assets at fair value$350.2M
Combined cash + digital assets$474.2M
Shares + pre-funded warrants outstanding75.9M
Q3 unrealized loss on digital assets$30.5M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue/EPS GuidanceQ3 2025None providedNone providedMaintained
Stock Repurchase ProgramQ3 2025n/aUp to $100MNew
ATM ProgramQ3 2025n/aLaunchedNew
Cash-Exercise WarrantsQ3 2025n/aPotential $750M additional capital raiseNew
Stapled Warrants ProvisionsNov 17, 2025Original termsCertain provisions amended (Black-Scholes inputs on fundamental transaction)Amended
OpEx/Tax rateQ3 2025None providedNone providedMaintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1/Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Advocacy & Institutional AdoptionReimbursement groundwork; early commercial steps (Anthem 3/11, UHC 5/12, Aetna 6/11; additional authorizations 6/16) Media presence (CNBC/Bloomberg); APAC institutional outreach with Solana Foundation Expanding institutional reach
Capital Markets ToolkitQ2 financing, ATM capacity increased to $25M in July; warrant inducements; regained Nasdaq compliance ATM launch, $100M buyback, structured equity/convertibles, selective M&A at <1x MNAV Broader instruments; more flexibility
Treasury Management & StakingNot highlighted pre-DAT7.03% APY staking; validator selection/MEV capture; cost basis improvement to ~$220 Executing, outperforming
Product Performance (PoNS Stroke)Registrational program enrollment complete; plan for FDA authorization late 2025/early 2026 Positive clinical outcomes; 510(k) submission filed; increased VA/cash sales Advancing clinical/regulatory
Reimbursement ProgressAnthem/UHC/Aetna approvals and additional authorized claims (Q1/Q2) Increased VA and cash sales; continued out-of-network reimbursements Improving access
Regulatory/LegalCMS finalized mouthpiece rate; controller rate set; Nasdaq monitoring through 7/7/2026 Stapled warrant provisions amended; FDA 510(k) submission Ongoing regulatory refinements
Macro (DAT market)n/aDAT market cooled after genesis; entering execution/consolidation phase More selective environment

Management Commentary

  • “Solana has become the most widely adopted and financially productive blockchain… native staking yield of more than 7%… economically sustainable and institutionally relevant.” — Executive Chairman Joseph Chee .
  • “We are focused on ensuring that every financing decision… is structured to be accretive… When we trade above our NAV, the ATM allows us to issue accretively. When we trade below NAV, we can use… share buybacks.” — Cosmo Jiang .
  • “For the month of October, the company’s average gross staking yield was 7.03% APY… ~36 bps better than the stake-weighted average of the top 10 largest validators.” — Cosmo Jiang .
  • “Our third quarter revenue of $697,000 included first-time staking rewards income of $342,000… We reported a net loss… of $352.8 million.” — CFO Jeff S. Mathiesen .
  • “The successful results of the stroke registrational program supported our PoNS device submission for FDA 510(k)… We have seen increased US activity, including increased VA and cash sales.” — Dane Andreeff .

Q&A Highlights

  • No questions were in the queue; call concluded without Q&A, limiting real-time guidance clarifications .
  • CFO highlighted amendment of certain stapled warrant provisions (Black-Scholes inputs) on Nov 17, 2025, indicating continued refinement of financing instruments .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025: Revenue $0.697M vs $0.110M estimate (beat); EPS -$32.89 vs -$50.5 estimate (beat).*
  • Q2 2025: Revenue $0.043M vs $0.075M estimate (miss); EPS -$79.73 vs -$128.5 estimate (beat).*
  • Q1 2025: Revenue $0.049M vs $0.100M estimate (miss); EPS -$391.72 vs -$435.00 estimate (beat).*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue Actual ($USD Millions)$0.049*$0.043 $0.697
Revenue Estimate ($USD Millions)$0.100*$0.075*$0.110*
EPS Actual ($USD)-$391.72*-$79.73 -$32.89
EPS Estimate ($USD)-$435.00*-$128.50*-$50.50*

Implication: Street likely revises up near-term revenue and narrows EPS losses to reflect staking income and improved capital markets positioning, while recognizing derivative/financing volatility in GAAP figures.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term trading: The $100M buyback and active ATM provide dynamic support around MNAV; issuance when trading at premium and buybacks at discount can stabilize valuation mechanics for a DAT vehicle .
  • Treasury alpha: Staking execution outperformed peers by ~36 bps in October, reinforcing tokens-per-share compounding beyond passive holdings .
  • GAAP volatility: Expect continued large swings from derivative liability and financing accounting tied to stapled warrants/PIPE; focus on cash + digital assets ($474.2M) and SOL accumulation for underlying value proxies .
  • Clinical optionality: Positive stroke outcomes and 510(k) submission could catalyze incremental revenue streams (VA/cash/out-of-network reimbursements already improving), diversifying away from pure DAT exposure .
  • Execution phase for DATs: Management sees market consolidation; HSDT positioning to be an acquirer where smaller DATs trade below 1x MNAV, potentially accretive to SOL per share .
  • Cost discipline watch: SG&A step-up (incl. $1.5M bonus) and R&D spending should be monitored versus realized staking/on-chain revenues to ensure operating leverage .
  • Risk management: Unrealized digital asset losses ($30.5M) and macro sensitivity warrant conservative expectations for GAAP outcomes; management emphasizes risk-controlled DeFi yield evaluation (not yield chasing) .

Notes:

  • All document-based data points are sourced from SEC filings and company materials as cited. Revenue/EPS consensus and certain prior-period actuals marked with an asterisk (*) are values retrieved from S&P Global.