Himalaya Shipping - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Transcript

Speaker 1

Hello and welcome to Himalaya Shipping Q2 2025 presentation. For the first part of this call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the Q&A, please press 5* on your telephone keypad. This call is being recorded. I'll now turn the call over to CEO Lars-Christian Svensen. Please begin.

Speaker 0

Thank you, operator. Welcome to the Q2 2025 conference call for Himalaya Shipping. My name is Lars-Christian Svensen, and I'm joined here today by our CFO, Vidar Hasund. Before we begin the presentation, I would like to remind you that we will be discussing matters that are forward-looking. These statements reflect the company's current views regarding future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. I will now proceed with the highlights of the quarter. We reported a net profit of $1.1 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $20.9 million. The gross time charter equivalent earnings for the quarter were approximately $28,400 per day. I commenced my role as CEO and reappointed Vidar Hasund as Contractor CFO on April 1, 2025. In April, the Board also approved a grant of 200,000 share options to key personnel.

On June 3, the company successfully completed the uplisting from Euronext Expand to the main list on the Oslo Stock Exchange. Total cash distributions for the quarter totaled $0.105 per share for the months of April to June. In subsequent events, we converted the index-linked time charters for four of our vessels to fixed rates at an average of approximately $35,300 per day from August 1 until September 30. We achieved a time charter equivalent for July of approximately $33,100 per day, and this morning we declared a dividend of $0.04 per share for July. With that, I will now pass the floor back to Vidar.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Lars-Christian. Himalaya Shipping reports a net profit of $1.1 million and earnings per share of $0.02 for Q2 2025, compared to a net income of $6.9 million and earnings per share of $0.16 for Q2 2024. Operating income was $13.6 million and EBITDA was $20.9 million for Q2 2025, compared to operating income of $17.5 million and EBITDA of $24 million for the same period last year. Operating revenues were $29.9 million for Q2 2025, compared to $31.2 million for the same quarter in 2024. The reduction in revenues is due to lower time charter equivalent earnings achieved, which is down from $34,600 in Q2 2024 to $28,400 in Q2 2025, mainly offset by 157 more operational days in Q2 2025 as a result of the last vessels delivered during Q2 2024. Vessel operating expenses were $7.1 million in Q2 2025, compared to $5.6 million in Q2 2024.

The increase is primarily due to a full fleet in operation during Q2 2025. The average operating expenses per ship per day was $6,500 in Q2 2025. G&A for the second quarter was $1.5 million, compared to $1.3 million in Q2 2024. The increase is primarily due to fees incurred in connection with the uplisting from Euronext Expand to Oslo Stock Exchange. Interest expense was $12.8 million in Q2 2025, which is a $1.8 million increase compared to Q2 2024, primarily due to drawdowns on the sale leaseback financing during Q2 2024. Cash and cash equivalents were $24.7 million at the end of the quarter. The minimum cash requirement under our sale leaseback financing is $12.3 million. Outstanding balance on the sale leaseback financing was $714 million at the end of the second quarter, down from $721.3 million at the end of the first quarter, reflecting scheduled repayments.

Cash flow from operations was $8.3 million for the second quarter. Himalaya Shipping has declared total cash distributions to shareholders of $0.105 per share for the months of April, May, and June 2025. That completes the financial section. Now back to you, Lars-Christian.

Speaker 0

Thank you, Vidar. Before I guide you through our market section, here are some company updates. Our preferred commercial strategy is to charter out our 12 vessels on index-linked charters. This allows us to capture the upside during market rises and provides flexibility to convert to fixed rates with our reliable counterparties when we see value in the forward FFA curve. Currently, six of our 12 ships will be on fixed rates in August and September at $34,100 per day. For Q4, we had two vessels fixed at $31,800 per day, with the remaining 10 ships operating in the spot market to capture what we believe will be a strong end to 2025 and an even stronger 2026.

To illustrate our fleet and commercial performance, or outperformance if you will, you can see this slide that since inception, the Himalaya vessels have traded at an average 49% premium to the Baltic Cape size index and a 25% premium to peers. This is achieved through the additional cargo intake of our vessels and their top-tier speed and consumption design. On the next slide, we will explore in greater detail the further upside potential of our fleet, particularly in relation to various emission regulations that will impact the shipping industry over the coming years. In 2024, the first CO2 tax was implemented. The EU Emissions Trading System regulation turned carbon into a fuel cost for ships calling at EU ports. In 2025, a second tax scheme, FuelEU Maritime, was implemented. This regulation adds carbon-based fuel penalties for ships calling at EU ports, encouraging cleaner fuel use.

Additionally, the IMO Net Zero initiative has been expected to be ratified in October 2025 and fully implemented in 2028. This initiative is a global push towards zero emissions by 2050, imposing carbon costs on shipping worldwide. This will lead to significant penalties for shipping. As an example, we have analyzed the standard Baltic Cape size intake route from Brazil to Rotterdam, adjusted for one of our Himalaya dual-fuel LNG vessels. A standard Baltic Cape size vessel incurs approximately $38,000 per day in fuel and CO2 costs. With our vessels, we save $7,100 per day through the fuel efficiency and cargo intake; however, we pay $2,500 more for LNG fuel compared to standard fuel due to current unfavorable fuel prices.

Nevertheless, our vessels capture material savings through green trading of approximately $2,600 per day under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), $6,800 per day under FuelEU Maritime regulations, and an additional $6,800 per day with the potential implementation of the IMO Net Zero initiative. This totals a potential saving of approximately $20,000 per day on the example route for one of our Himalaya Shipping vessels. You will earn the added premium from EU and IMO schemes similar to the scrub benefit, capturing 75% of the added value. Needless to say, we have a competitive edge and significant future upside with our dual-fuel LNG vessels, which have not been fully factored into the equation to date. Here you can see our unique dividend capacity based on various rate scenarios for a standard Cape size vessel.

When the Baltic Cape size index reaches $30,000 per day, the company will yield approximately 22%. At around $40,000 a day, we will produce a yield of about 40%, and at $55,000 a day on the Baltic Cape size index, Himalaya Shipping will yield an impressive 65%. Our fleet-wide cash breakeven is approximately $17,000 per day on the Baltic Cape size index. As a reminder, the average Cape size index over the last four years has been significantly higher. Shareholders and management are fully aligned, with the board and sponsors owning one-third of the equity. We have no reinvestment plans, and all free cash flow after debt service is targeted to be paid to our shareholders via monthly dividends. Now let's take a look at the market. The ton-mile story continues to move in the right direction after a significant drop in Q4 2024.

Ton-mile in Q2 for Cape size was close to the record period in Q2 2024, with a marginal decrease of 1.3%. Bauxite from Guinea has surpassed positive expectations every month and was up 27% year over year. Iron ore was up 1%, while coal, as discussed in detail in our previous quarterly presentation, was down 14% year over year. Chinese total imports were up 3%, and iron ore exports from Brazil increased by 4% year over year. We have discussed the bauxite trade extensively in several quarterly presentations, and it's with keen interest that we observe the volume growth in this commodity to this extent. Most of the Guinean export volumes are destined for China, and as you can see from the top left graph, imports are continuing at a solid pace.

As a central component in the alumina industry, China uses a vast share of the imported bauxite volumes for electrical vehicle production. Inputs are increasing, and so is the alumina production, which indicates room for further growth, as illustrated in the bottom left graph. To the right, you can see the increased impact of the bauxite trade in ton miles. Bauxite has now surpassed coal by a significant margin for the first time in history. Long haul iron ore from Brazil has been strong all year and increased by 4% year over year in the second quarter. We consider these volumes from Brazil encouraging, both in terms of million tons exported and from a ton mile perspective, as we move into the iron ore high season. Since March, exports from Brazil have followed a steady upward trajectory, setting new records every month.

China's appetite for high-grade iron ore has exceeded even last year's record import numbers, with a 4% increase year over year. With Chinese iron ore inventories down approximately 10% year over year, this indicates a healthy iron ore demand scenario as we enter into the second half of 2025. In the previous slide, we discussed short-term iron ore demand, which showed increased demand and decreasing Chinese iron ore stockpiles. Taking a deeper dive into long-term developments, we note that the domestic iron ore production was down 3% year over year in 2024 and 3% year to date in 2025. This may be another signal that Chinese domestic iron ore production is becoming less economical and reduced due to its low Fe content estimated around 20%. High-grade iron ore, often with an Fe content of 62% or higher, obtained from Brazil and other destinations, is obviously preferred.

This aligns with the bottom right graph, which shows that Brazilian iron ore has been taking a larger market share in China over time, which is naturally positive for ton mile. Speaking of high-grade iron ore, the first volumes from the Simandou mine in Guinea are expected to be exported in November 2025, according to the latest updates. Over a 24-month ramp-up phase, the mine is targeting 120 million tons of high-grade iron ore per annum for the market. With the additional Vale capacity increased by 2026, we expect a total of 170 million tons of high-grade iron ore from the Atlantic, most of which will be exported to China. As shown in the right graph, comparing these volumes to the record low order book, the supply story strengthens further. As we move toward the end of this presentation, we continue to highlight the historically low order book.

We are at the 25-year record low, standing at 8.9% of the total existing Cape size fleet. Active shipyards are down 60% from the peak in 2008, making it challenging to build any meaningful fleet capacity that could disrupt the favorable supply dynamics over the next few years. As shown in the right graph, compared to other shipping segments, the Cape size order book to fleet ratio is by far the most favorable. In addition to the low order book, the current Cape size and Newcastlemax fleet is aging rapidly. Approximately 50% of the total fleet was built between 2009 and 2015, meaning that 60% of the fleet will be over 20 years of age by 2034.

Shipowners have historically been adept at disturbing their own markets by placing new building orders, but as it stands now, we have clear visibility of supply for the next three or four years, making it difficult to add significant dry bulk capacity on the larger sizes. We continue to see a significant increase in dry docks due to mandatory special surveys required for merchant vessels every five years. Vessels delivered in 2010 account for 10% of the total Cape size fleet and will need to undergo their 15-year special survey in 2025. Additionally, there will be five and ten-year special surveys, meaning approximately 23% of the total Cape size and Newcastlemax fleet will be competing for dry dock space this year, with similar numbers expected for 2026.

The estimated total of 1.3% to 1.4% additional off-hire time for the total fleet is due to dry docks alone in 2025 and 2026, not factoring in potential congestion and waiting time. Thank you very much, and I will now pass the floor back to the operator and welcome any questions that you might have.

Speaker 1

Thank you. We'll now start the Q&A session. If you wish to ask a question, please press five star on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, you may do so by pressing five star again. There will be a brief pause while questions are being registered. Our first question will be from the line of Hoel Mergedal from Saxons. Please go ahead, your line will now be unmuted.

Thank you. Hi guys, how are you doing?

Speaker 0

Hi everyone.

I guess my first question is about the market, so it's a two-part question. You know, the Cape size spot market has been quite strong this summer, right? Maybe you could, let's say, dissect the recent strength. What's driving that? Is it, you know, positional, efficiency-related, or demand maybe? What's your view on that? The second part of that question is, it hasn't really been only the spot market, but also the FFA curve has moved higher, right? The, let's say, the second half of the year has scaled higher, right? Around $26,000 for Q4 as an example. What's driving that in your view? Thank you.

Thank you, Thrillder. To start at the beginning here, I think in the middle of the summer we saw the Panamax strength continuing on the East Coast, South America, soybean and wheat side, which led to a higher floor on the Cape sizes and also meant that Cape sizes could divulge in more coal trading. After the fiscal year in Australia as well for the iron ore miners, we saw a break of two, three weeks before they started shipping again. When the engines started running out of Australia, all of a sudden we saw a good amount of ships being tied into that route. As the market went up, fewer ballisters towards Brazil to be able to assist with the ongoing tons going out of there.

It seems like the seasonality started a bit early this year on the iron ore from Atlantic as well, which has driven this market upwards due to a tight squeeze and fewer ballisters coming into the Atlantic.

Okay. I guess on the topic of the FFA, I'm curious, let's say Q4 is at $26,000 on the Cape size and Q1 next year is $16,000 roughly. I'm just, you know, how do you plan to navigate the seasonally weaker Q1? When do you start to move into fixed cover to smoothen out the earnings potential? Is it too early? What's your thinking?

At the moment, we find it a little bit too early. We see the seasonality being very strong, as I mentioned in the presentation as well, with the Chinese appetite for seaborne iron ore and with the Simandou mine coming on stream, we still think this market has further legs. This is why we are almost 85% spot exposed for Q4 and onwards. It is going to be exciting to see an exact timeline for when we start to take cover. It is difficult to predict, but obviously we will do whatever it takes to protect healthy dividend capacity, but also try to capture the big spikes that we think will come.

Makes sense. You know, when you look at 2026 versus 2025, you know, you have the Simandou coming up. You know, do you think 2026 could be better than this year when you weigh supply and demand overall?

Yeah, it's the short answer. I do think it's going to be better. Also, because we're coming now in 2025 from a fairly low point when it comes to transporting coal on Cape sizes, I see upside there. Interestingly enough, we also see now that India is moving to become a net importer of iron ore, with buying 10 million tons from Brazil only in 2025. I think not only are we having the new Simandou mine as a third frontal leg in addition to Brazil and the bauxite, but we might also, or we have seen already that we see the Indian tons coming from Brazil, which gave us a fourth frontal for the bigger sizes, thus increased ton-mile. It's challenging for us to take cover into next year at the moment because we think there's a lot of big drivers out there that can push it further.

Interesting. I guess my final question is on when do you, let's say, renew the floating charters? Do you think there will be higher willingness to secure your modern ships, right? You have the dual-fuel LNG, which is probably being more and more important now that this IMO ratifies this 2028 CO2 tax, right? How do you see that evolving?

I think most charterers looking at the economics that we see today based on the regulations from these various organizations putting on carbon levies, they would need to try and secure greener tonnage, more modern tonnage, to both save money and to increase their green footprint. I would be surprised if Himalaya Shipping didn't have a step ahead of many other of the competition as we go forward.

That's good. Thank you.

Thank you, Thrillder.

Speaker 1

Thank you. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press five star on your telephone keypad. We'll have a brief pause while any further questions are registered. As we have no more questions in the queue, I'll hand it back to the speakers for any closing remarks.

Speaker 0

Thank you very much, everyone, for listening in, and we'll hear more from us next quarter. Thank you.