Himalaya Shipping - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello, and welcome to Himalaya Shipping Q2 twenty twenty five Presentation. Session.

This call is being recorded. I'll now turn the call over to CEO, Lars Christian Svendsen. Please begin.

Lars-Christian Svensen (Contracted CEO)

Thank you, operator. Welcome to the Q2 twenty twenty five conference call for Himalaya Shipping. My name is Lars Christian Svensson, and I'm joined here today by our CFO, Widar Hasen. Before we begin the presentation, I would like to remind you we will be discussing matters that are forward looking. These statements reflect the company's current views regarding future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties.

Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. I will now proceed with the highlights of the quarter. We reported a net profit of $1,100,000 and an adjusted EBITDA of $20,900,000 The gross time charter equivalent earnings for the quarter were approximately $28,400 per day. I commenced my role as CEO, and we appointed Vidar Harasson as contracted CFO on 04/01/2025. In April, the board also approved a grant of 200,000 share options to key personnel.

On June 3, the company successfully completed the uplisting from Euronext Expand to the main list on the Oslo Stock Exchange. Total cash distributions for the quarter totaled 10 and a half cents per share for the months of April to June. In subsequent events, we converted the index linked time charters for four of our vessels to fixed rates at an average of approximately 35,300 per day from August 1 until thirtieth September. We achieved a time charter equivalent for July of approximately $33,100 per day. And this morning, we declared a dividend of zero four dollars per share for July.

With that, I will now pass the floor back to Widar.

Vidar Hasund (Contracted CFO)

Thank you, Lars Christian. Himalaya Shipping reports a net profit of $1,100,000 and earnings per share of $02 for Q2 twenty twenty five compared to a net income of $6,900,000 and earnings per share of $0.16 for Q2 twenty twenty four. Operating income was $13,600,000 and EBITDA was $20,900,000 for Q2 twenty twenty five compared to operating income of $17,500,000 and EBITDA of $24,000,000 for the same period last year. Operating revenues were $29,900,000 for Q2 twenty twenty five compared to $31,200,000 for the same quarter in 2024. The reduction in revenues is due to lower time charter equivalent earnings achieved, which is down from $34,600 in Q2 twenty twenty four to $28,400 in Q2 twenty twenty five, mainly offset by one hundred and fifty seven more operational days in Q2 twenty twenty five as a result of the last vessels delivered during Q2 twenty twenty four.

Vessel operating expenses were $7,100,000 in Q2 twenty twenty five compared to $5,600,000 in Q2 twenty twenty four. The increase is primarily due to our full fleet in operation during Q2 twenty twenty five. The average operating expenses per ship per day was $6,500 in Q2 twenty twenty five. G and A for the second quarter was $1,500,000 compared to $1,300,000 in Q2 twenty twenty four. The increase is primarily due to fees incurred in connection with the uplisting from Euronext Expand to Euronext Oslo Burst.

Interest expense were $12,800,000 in Q2 twenty twenty five, which is a $1,800,000 increase compared to Q2 twenty twenty four, primarily due to drawdowns on the sale leaseback financing during Q2 twenty twenty four. Cash and cash equivalents were $24,700,000 at the end of the quarter. The minimum cash requirement under our sale leaseback financing is $12,300,000 Outstanding balance on the sale leaseback financing was $714,000,000 at the end of the second quarter, down from 7 and $21,300,000 at the end of the first quarter, reflecting scheduled repayments. Cash flow from operations was $8,300,000 for the second quarter. Himalaya Shipping have declared total cash distributions to shareholders of $0.01 $05 per share for the months of April, May and June 2025.

That completes the financial section. Now back to you, Lars Christian.

Lars-Christian Svensen (Contracted CEO)

Thank you, Widar. Before I guide you through our market section, here are some company updates. Our preferred commercial strategy is to charter out our 12 vessels on index linked charters. This allows us to capture the upside during market rises and provides flexibility to convert to fixed rates with our reliable counterparties when we see value in the forward FFA curve. Currently, six of our 12 ships will be on fixed rates in August and September at $34,100 per day.

For q four, we have two vessels fixed at $31,800 per day with the remaining 10 ships operating in the spot market to capture what we believe will be a strong end to 2025 and an even stronger 2026. To illustrate our fleet and commercial performance or outperformance, if you will, you can see this slide that since inception, inception, the Himalaya vessels are traded at an average 49 premium to the Baltic Capesize Index and a 25% premium to peers. This is achieved through the additional cargo intake of our vessels and their top tier speed and consumption design. On the next slide, we will explore in greater detail the further upside potential of our fleet, particularly in relation to various emission regulations that will impact the shipping industry over the coming years. In 2024, the first c o two tax was implemented.

The EU ETS regulation turned carbon into a fuel cost for ships calling at EU ports. In 2025, a second tax scheme, Fuel EU Maritime, was implemented. This regulation adds carbon based fuel penalties for ships calling at EU ports, encouraging cleaner fuel use. Additionally, IMO net zero initiative has been expected to be ratified in October 2025 and fully implemented in 2028. This initiative is a global push towards zero emissions by 02/1950, imposing carbon costs on shipping worldwide.

This will lead to significant penalties for shipping. As an example, we have analyzed a standard Baltic Capesize in the grout from Brazil to Rotterdam, adjusted for one of our Himalaya dual fuel LNG vessels. A standard Baltic Capesize vessel incurs approximately 38,000 per day in fuel and CO two costs. With our vessels, we save $7,100 per day through the fuel efficiency and cargo intake. However, we pay 2 and a half thousand dollars more for LNG fuel compared to standard fuel due to current unfavorable fuel prices.

Nevertheless, our vessels capture material savings through green trading of approximately $2,600 per day under the EU ETS, $6,800 per day under fuel EU maritime regulations, and an additional $6,800 per day with the potential implementation of the IMO global initiative. This totals a potential saving of approximately $20,000 per day on the example route for one of our Himalaya vessels. We will earn the added premium from EU and IMO schemes similar to the scrubber benefit, capturing 75% of the added value. Needless to say, we have a competitive edge and significant future upside with our dual fuel assets, which have not been fully factored in to the equation to date. Here, can see our unique dividend capacity based on various rate scenarios for a standard Capesize vessel.

When the Baltic Capesize Index reaches $30,000 per day, the company will yield approximately 22%. At around $40,000 a day, we will produce a yield of about 40%. And at $55,000 a day, the Baltic on the Baltic Capesize Index, Himalaya will yield an impressive 65%. Our fleet wide cash breakeven is approximately $17,000 per day on the Baltic Capesize Index. As a reminder, the average Capesize Index over the last four years has been significantly higher.

Shareholders and managements are fully aligned with the board and sponsors owning one third of the equity. We have no reinvestment plans, and all free cash flow after debt service is targeted to be paid to our shareholders via monthly dividends. Now let's take a look at the market. The tonne mile story continues to move in the right direction after a significant drop in Q4 twenty twenty four. Ton mile in Q2 for Capesize was close to the record period in Q2 twenty twenty four with a marginal decrease of 1.3%.

Bauxite from Guinea has surpassed positive expectations every month and was up 27% year over year. Iron ore was up 1%, while coal, as discussed in detail in our previous quarterly presentation, was down 14% year over year. Chinese total imports were up 3%, and iron ore exports from Brazil increased by 4% year over year. We have discussed the bauxite trade extensively in several quarterly presentations, and it's with keen interest that we observed the volume growth in this commodity to this extent. Most of the Guinean export volumes are destined for China.

And as you can see from the top left graph, imports are continuing at a solid pace. As a central component in the alumina industry, China uses a vast share of the imported bauxite volumes for electrical vehicle production. Imports are increasing, and so is the alumina production, which indicates room for further growth, as illustrated in the bottom left graph. To the right, you can see the increased impact of the bauxite trade in ton miles. Bauxite has now surpassed coal by a significant margin for the first time in history.

Long haul iron ore from Brazil has been strong all year and increased by 4% year over year in the second quarter. We consider these volumes from Brazil encouraging both in terms of million tonnes exported and from a tonne mile perspective as we move into the iron ore high season. Since March, exports from Brazil have followed a steady upward trajectory, setting new records every month. China's appetite for high grade iron ore has exceeded even last year's record import numbers with a 4% increase year over year. With Chinese iron ore inventories down approximately 10% year over year, this indicates a healthy iron ore demand scenario as we enter into the 2025.

In the previous slide, we discussed short term iron ore demand, which showed increased demand and decreasing Chinese iron ore stockpiles. Taking a deeper dive into long term developments, we note that the domestic iron ore production was down three percent year over year in 2024 and three percent year to date in 2025. This may be another signal that Chinese domestic iron ore production is becoming less economical and reduced due to its low FEE content estimated around 20%. High grade iron ore, often with an FEE content of 62% or higher, obtained from Brazil and other destinations is obviously preferred. This aligns with the bottom right graph, which shows that Brazilian iron ore has been taking a larger market share in China over time, which is naturally positive for ton mile.

Speaking of high grade iron ore, the first volumes from the Simandou mine in Guinea are expected to be exported in November 2025 according to the latest updates. Over a twenty four month ramp up phase, the mine is targeting 120,000,000 tonnes of high grade iron ore per annum for the market. With the additional Vale capacity increased by 2026, we expect a total of 170,000,000 tonnes of high grade iron ore from The Atlantic, most of which will be exported to China. As shown in the right graph, comparing these volumes to the record low order book, the supply story strengthens further. As we move toward the end of this presentation, we continue to highlight the historically low order book.

We are at the twenty five year record low, standing at 8.9% of the total existing Capesize fleet. Active shipyards are down 60% from the peak in 02/2008, making it challenging to build any meaningful fleet capacity that could disrupt the favorable supply dynamics over the next few years. As shown in the right graph, compared to other shipping segments, the Capesize order book to fleet ratio is by far the most favorable. In addition to the low order book, the current Capesize and Newcastle MAX fleet is aging rapidly. Approximately 50% of the total fleet was built between 2009 and 02/2015, meaning that 60% of the fleet will be over 20 years of age by 02/1934.

Ship owners have historically been adept to disturbing their own markets by placing new building orders, but as it stands now, we have clear visibility of supply for the next three or four years, making it difficult to add significant dry bulk capacity on the larger sizes. We continue to see a significant increase in drydocks due to mandatory special service required for merchant vessels every five years. Vessels delivered in 2010 account for 10% of the total Capesize fleet and will need to undergo their fifteen year special survey in 2025. Additionally, there will be five and ten year special surveys, meaning approximately 23% of the total Capesize and Newcastle MAX fleet will be competing for drydock space this year with similar numbers expected for 02/1926. We estimate a total of 1.3% to 1.4% additional off hire time for the total fleet due to drydocks alone in 2025 and 2026, not factoring in potential congestion and waiting time.

Thank you very much, and I will now pass the floor back to the operator and welcome any questions that you might have.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll now start the Q and A session. Session. Our first question will be from the line of Hul Moergedale from Clarksons. Please go ahead. Your line will now be unmuted.

Frode Morkedal (MD - Shipping Equity Research)

Thank you. Hi, How are you doing?

Lars-Christian Svensen (Contracted CEO)

Hi, Hul.

Frode Morkedal (MD - Shipping Equity Research)

I guess my first question is about the market. So it's a two part question. You know, the capes spot market has been quite strong this summer. Right? So maybe you could, let's say, dissect the recent strength.

What's driving that? Is it, you know, positional, efficiency related, or demand maybe? What's your view on that? And then the second part of that question is, it hasn't really been only spot market, but also the FSA curve has moved higher. Right?

So the, let's say, the second half of the year has clearly moved higher. Right? So around 26,000 for Q4, as an example. So what's driving that in your view? Thank you.

Lars-Christian Svensen (Contracted CEO)

Thank you, Thrilled. To start at the beginning here, I think in the middle of the summer, we saw the Panamax strength continuing on the East Coast South America soybean and wheat side, which led to a higher floor on the Capesizes and also meant that Capesizes could arouse in more coal trading. After the fiscal year in Australia as well for the iron ore miners, we saw a break of two, three weeks before they started shipping again. So when the engines started running out of Australia, all of a sudden, we saw a good amount of ships being tied into that route. And as the market went up, fewer balusters towards Brazil to be able to assist with the ongoing tonnes going out of there.

And it seems like the seasonality started a bit early this year on the iron ore from Atlantic as well, which has driven this market upwards due to a tight squeeze and fewer balances coming into the Atlantic.

Frode Morkedal (MD - Shipping Equity Research)

Okay. I guess on the topic of the FSA, I'm curious to, let's say, q four is up 26 on the k, and q one next year is 16, roughly. So I'm just you know, how do you plan to navigate the seasonally weaker q one? When do you start to, let's say, pull into fixed cover to smoothen out the earnings potential? Is it too early? What's your thinking?

Lars-Christian Svensen (Contracted CEO)

At the moment, we find it a little bit too early. We see the seasonality being very strong, as I mentioned in the presentation as well, with the Chinese appetite for seaborne iron ore and with the Simandou mine coming on stream, we still think this market has further leg sense as why we are almost 85% spot exposed for Q4 and onwards. So it's going to be exciting to see an exact time line for when we start to take cover. It's difficult to predict, but obviously, we will do whatever it takes to protect healthy dividend capacity but also try to capture the big spikes that we think will come.

Frode Morkedal (MD - Shipping Equity Research)

Makes sense. So when I look at 2026 versus 2025, you know, you have this demand due coming up. You know, do you think 2026 could be better than this year when you weigh supply demand overall?

Lars-Christian Svensen (Contracted CEO)

Yeah. It's the short answer. I I do think it's going to be better. And also because we're coming now in 2025 from a fairly low point when it comes to transporting coal on Capesizes.

So I see upside there. Interestingly enough, we also see now that India is moving to become a net importer of iron ore with buying 10,000,000 tonnes from Brazil only in 2025. So I think not only are we having the new Simandou mine as a third front haul leg in addition to Brazil at the bauxite, but we might also or we have seen already that we see the Indian tonnes coming from Brazil, which gave us a fourth front toll for the bigger sizes, thus increased ton mile. So it's challenging for us to take cover into next year at the moment because we think there's a lot of big drivers out there that can push it further.

Frode Morkedal (MD - Shipping Equity Research)

Interesting. I guess my final question is on when do you, let's say, renew the the floating charters. Do you think there will be higher willingness to secure your modern ships? Right? Do you have the dual fuel LNG, which is probably being more important, right, at least the IMO ratifies this 2028 c o two tax. Right? How do you see that evolving?

Lars-Christian Svensen (Contracted CEO)

I think most charterers looking at the economics that we see today based on the regulations from these various organizations putting on carbon levies, I think they would need to try and secure greener tonnage, more modern tonnage to both save money and to increase their green footprint. So I would be surprised if Himalaya didn't have a step ahead of many other growth of competition as we go forward.

Frode Morkedal (MD - Shipping Equity Research)

That's good. Thank you.

Lars-Christian Svensen (Contracted CEO)

Thank you, Fidel.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As we have no more questions in the queue, I will hand it back to the speakers for any closing remarks.

Lars-Christian Svensen (Contracted CEO)

Thank you very much, everyone, for listening in, and we'll hear more from us next quarter. Thank