Himalaya Shipping - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Welcome to this conference call for Himalaya Shipping. For the first part of this call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you wish to ask a question, please press five-star on your telephone keypad. This call is being recorded. Allowed to enter call orders to your speakers. You may now begin.

Lars-Christian Svensen (CEO)

Thank you, operator. Welcome to the Q3 2025 conference call for Himalaya Shipping. My name is Lars-Christian Svensen, and I will be joined here today by our CFO, Vidar Hasund. Before we start the presentation, I would like to remind you that we will be discussing matters that are forward-looking. These assumptions reflect the company's current views regarding Future Events and are subject to Risks and Uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. I will now continue with the highlights of the quarter. We reported a net profit of $9.5 million and an EBITDA of $29.3 million. The gross time charter Equivalent Earnings for the quarter was approximately $35,600 per day. We converted the Index-Linked Time Charters for four vessels to Fixed-Rate Time Charters at an average rate of $35,300 per day from August 1st to September 30th.

Further conversions were made for four vessels from index-linked to fixed-Time Charters at an average rate of $38,500 from October 1st until December 31st. Total cash distributions for the quarter totaled $0.24 per share for the months of July, August, and September. In subsequent events, we achieved a time charter equivalent earnings for October of about $36,800 per day, and we declared a dividend of $0.07 for the month. I will now pass the word to Vidar.

Vidar Hasund (CFO)

Thank you, Lars-Christian. Himalaya Shipping reports a Net Profit of $9.5 million and earnings per share of $0.21 for Q3 2025, compared to a Net Income of $10.6 million and earnings per share of $0.24 for Q3 2024. Operating Profit was $22 million, and EBITDA was $29.3 million for the quarter, compared to Operating Profit of $23.6 million and EBITDA of $30.9 million for the same period last year. Operating Revenues were $37.9 million for Q3 2025, compared to $39.2 million for the same quarter in 2024. The reduction in revenues is due to lower Time Charter equivalent earnings achieved, which is down from $36,800 in Q3 2024 to $35,600 in Q3 2025. Vessel Operating Expenses were $7 million in Q3 2025, compared to $6.5 million in Q3 2024. The increase is primarily due to higher costs for Spares and Repairs and Maintenance.

The average OpEX per day was $6,400 per day, compared to $6,000 per day during Q3 2024. G&A for the third quarter was $1.1 million, compared to $1.4 million in Q3 2024. The decrease is primarily due to reduced costs for D&O Insurance. Interest expense was $12.8 million in Q3 2025, which is a $0.4 million decrease compared to the same period in 2024 due to a lower Average Loan Principal outstanding in Q3 2025 as a result of loan repayments. Cash and Cash Equivalents were $26.4 million at the end of the quarter. The minimum cash requirement under sale leaseback financing is $12.3 million. Outstanding balance on the sale leaseback financing was approximately $707 million at the end of the third quarter. It's down from $714 million at the end of the second quarter, reflecting scheduled repayments. Cash flow from operations was $18.3 million for the third quarter.

Himalaya Shipping have declared total cash distribution to shareholders of $0.24 for the months of July, August, and September 2025. That completes the Financial Section, and now back to you, Lars-Christian.

Lars-Christian Svensen (CEO)

Thank you, Vidar. Before I will guide you through our market section, here are some company updates. Our preferred commercial strategy is to charter out our 12 vessels on Index-Linked Time Charters. That allows us to capture the upside at each given market rise and also gives us good flexibility to convert to Fixed Rates with our solid counterparts when we see value on the FFA Curve, as mentioned earlier in the presentation. Currently, six of our 12 ships will be on Fixed Rates until 31st December 2025 at an Average Rate of $36,300 per day. We are 100% exposed to the spot market from 2026 to capture what we believe will be a strong year ahead.

To illustrate our fleet and commercial performance, you can see on this slide that since inception, the Himalaya vessels have traded to an average 50% premium to the Baltic Capesize Index and a 23% premium to peers. This is achieved by the extra cargo intake on our vessel and top tier per speed and consumption design on our fleet. We also have timed our conversions well, as proved by our Q4 conversions to Fixed Rates. Here you can see our unique dividend capacity based on various rate scenarios for a standard cape size vessel. When the Baltic Capesize Index moved to $30,000 per day, the company will yield about 22%. When we see moves to around the $40,000 per day range, we'll produce a yield of around 40%. When we see $55,000 a day on the Baltic Capesize Index, Himalaya will yield well above 60%.

Our fleet of 12 modern Newcastlemaxes with dual fuel LNG is in the top 1% emission ratings for Large Bulk Carriers. The attractive financing, combined with a very clear Capital Allocation structure, has led to 22 monthly consecutive dividends. All the vessels are fixed out on long-term index-linked contracts with conversion options. The all-in cash break-even equivalent to the Baltic Capesize Index is $17,000 per day, i.e., every time you see the Baltic Capesize Index above that number, Himalaya Shipping will make money. Now let's have a look at the market. The ton-mile story continues to move in the right direction after a large drop in Q4 2024 due to the coal cannibalization from the Panamaxes. Ton-mile in Q3 for Capesize increased 2% year-over-year, thanks to a 15% increase in Bauxite from Guinea and a 3% increase from iron ore.

Year-over-year, iron ore exports from Brazil and Australia is up 4% and 2% respectively, and Bauxite Exports from Guinea has again surpassed expectation with an 18% year-over-year increase. We have discussed the Bauxite trade extensively in several quarterly presentations, and it is with keen interest we observe volume growth in one commodity to this extent. Most of the Guinean export volumes are destined for China, and as you can see from the top left graph, imports are continuing at a solid pace. As a central component in the aluminum industry, China uses a vast share of imported Bauxite Volumes for the Electric Vehicle Production. Imports are increasing, and so is the Alumina Production, which indicates room for further growth, as illustrated in the bottom left graph. To the right, you can see the increased impact of the Bauxite Trade in ton miles.

Bauxite has this year surpassed coal by a good margin for the first time in history. The global Iron Ore Exports have been strong since Q1 this year, so far surpassing the four previous years. More importantly for the Capesize and Newcastlemax segment is that the seaborne iron ore imports so far this year also outperformed the previous years and compared to 2024 more than 7%. If I can draw your attention to the bottom right graph, we observe with excitement that the Chinese Iron Ore Inventories are down almost 10% comparing to the same period last year, which again indicates the continued need for Iron Ore in China. As for the long-term Iron Ore demand, the left graph shows the Iron Ore production cost distribution. We have frequently been asked what would happen if the iron ore price were to come down from above $100 per ton.

Based on the Cost Curve, it would imply that the Chinese Domestic Production will continue to decline. If you look at the two graphs on the right, you can see that the Chinese Domestic Production adjusted for Iron Ore content has declined in the last 15 years, and that the Iron Ore imports have increased accordingly. In conclusion, all positive for freight in the Newcastlemax and Capesize space. Continuing on the Iron Ore track, the first volumes of Iron Ore from the Simandou mine in Guinea are expected to be exported this month, according to the latest updates. Between 2 million tons are apparently dockside and ready to be shipped. Over a 24-month ramp-up phase, the mine is targeting 120 million tons of high-grade Iron Ore per annum to the market.

With the additional Vale capacity increased by 2026, we expect a total of 170 million tons of high-grade Iron Ore from the Atlantic, most of which will be exported to China. As you can see from the right graph, comparing these volumes to the record low order book, the supply story strengthens further. In addition to the low order book, the current Capesize and Newcastlemax Fleet is aging fast. Around 50% of the Total Fleet was built between 2009 and 2015. That means that 60% of the Fleet will be over 20 years of age in 2034. Ship owners historically have been good at ruining their own markets by placing new building orders, but as it looks now, we have clear visibility of supply for the next three to four years, making it difficult to add any meaningful large bulk dry bulk capacity to the market.

As we are moving towards the end of this presentation, we continue to highlight the historical low order book. We are at a 25-year record low, standing at 9.3% of the total existing Capesize Fleet. Active shipyards are down 60% from the peak of 2008, making it challenging to build any fleet capacity that could distort the favorable supply dynamics over the next few years. As a comparison to the other shipping segments, you can see from the right graph that the Capesize order book to Fleet Ratio is by far most favorable. Thank you, and I will now pass the word back to the operator and welcome any questions you might have.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you do wish to ask a question, please press the five-star on the telephone keypad. To withdraw a question, you may do so by pressing five-star again. There will be a brief pause while questions are being registered. Our first question comes from the line of Even Kolsgaard from Clarksons Securities. Please go ahead. Your line will be unmuted.

Even Kolsgaard (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. If you look at the market in 2026, you and most other people, including us, are quite fast into the Capesize Market due to the factors you talked about. I think the main pushback is that the sub-cape market does not look that good. As we have seen in 2025, there has been a lot of coal splitting from Australia. For 2026, how good or how much of an outperformance do you think the Capesize Market can have compared to the sub-cape market?

Lars-Christian Svensen (CEO)

Yeah, hi, thanks for the question. Yeah, we've seen quite a bit of coal splits end of last year and this year. That's true. I think the potential for the cape sizes to continue to rally is higher based on the big frontal ramps that we talked about in this presentation. The downside to this market, I would say, is a lot less than what we saw last year, simply because we lost so much coal on the total fleet. The bulk side volumes are strong. The Simandou volumes are destined to be big and strong as well. With the Panamaxes moving quite a bit higher now as well, we think that the Capesizes can rally like they normally do, at least two and a half times the Panamax segment.

It's good to see that the Panamaxes are doing well on the coal and grains as well.

Even Kolsgaard (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, thanks. I'm just moving to the. For your Fleet, which is currently fully open for 2026. I guess it's about the first quarter of next year. We're currently seeing the FFA is at $17,500 a day. As you're fully spot at the moment, I guess you'd think the first quarter could go higher, or are you looking to get some coverage for the first quarter?

Lars-Christian Svensen (CEO)

The curve is obviously always a moving target. We have expectations that are solid going forward. Yes, you're absolutely right. We are not locked in at these levels right now because we think we might see another push. As normal, when we do conversions, if we see value on the Forward Curve, we will lock it in and move on. We can always unwind it if our view has been wrong. For now, we still have faith in 2026 and also 2027.

Even Kolsgaard (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, thank you. That's all from me.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, press five-star to ask a question. There will be a brief pause while new questions are being registered. As no one else has lined up for questions, I'll now hand it back to the speakers for any closing remarks.

Lars-Christian Svensen (CEO)

Thank you very much for listening. We look forward to having further updates for you in the next quarter. Thank you very much.