Host Hotels & Resorts - Q2 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Host Hotels & Resorts second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Jaime Marcus, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. You may go ahead.

Jaime Marcus (SVP of Investor Relations)

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, please note that many of the comments made today are considered to be forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. As described in our filings with the SEC, these statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed. We are not obligated to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements. In addition, on today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial information such as FFO, adjusted EBITDAre, and comparable hotel-level results. You can find this information, together with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP information, in yesterday's earnings press release, in our 8-K filed with the SEC, and in the supplemental financial information on our website at hosthotels.com. With me on today's call are Jim Risoleo, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jim.

Jim Risoleo (President and CEO)

Thank you, Jaime, and thanks to everyone for joining us this afternoon. During the second quarter, we delivered a comparable hotel RevPAR improvement of 2.7% compared to the second quarter of 2022. Our RevPAR performance for the quarter came in below our quarterly guidance, primarily as a result of moderating transient demand in San Francisco and Seattle and at our resorts to a lesser extent. Comparable hotel TRevPAR growth was 3.8% during the quarter, underscoring the continued strength of out-of-room spend. During the quarter, we delivered adjusted EBITDAre of $446 million and adjusted FFO per share of $0.53. While our second quarter comparable hotel EBITDA of $449 million was 9% below 2022, it was 9% above 2019.

Second quarter comparable hotel EBITDA margin of 32.7% exceeded 2019. This marks the 5th consecutive quarter since the onset of the pandemic that we have achieved TRevPAR, RevPAR, and comparable hotel EBITDA and margins ahead of 2019 levels. Comparable hotel RevPAR for July is expected to be approximately $209, which is 2.5% above July of 2022. Our performance in the first half of the year, coupled with the macroeconomic backdrop in the second half, led us to tighten our full-year RevPAR growth guidance range to 7%-9%, bringing the midpoint of our full-year expected RevPAR growth to 8%. At the midpoint of our guidance for full year 2023, comparable hotel EBITDA is forecasted to be approximately 9% above 2019.

As we look at the current macroeconomic picture, it is important to consider how our outlook has shifted over the past six months. As the second quarter progressed, we started to see a moderation in volume at our hotels in San Francisco and Seattle, which were already affected by softer demand. At the same time, many high-end leisure travelers took the opportunity to travel internationally, we did not see a corresponding level of international inbound demand, which impacted volume at our resorts. Against this backdrop, we were pleased to deliver positive RevPAR and TRevPAR growth for the quarter, especially given the high watermark of the second quarter of 2022. We remain optimistic about the state of travel for several reasons. First, group business continues to improve.

During the quarter, we booked over 310,000 group rooms for 2023, total group revenue pace is now 4.2% ahead of the same time, 2019, up from 2.5% as of March and 3.2% as of April. The group booking window is continuing to extend, groups continue to spend more than contracted. Second, business transient demand continued its gradual improvement during the second quarter. Rates were up 10% to both 2022 and 2019, demand improved nearly 6% compared to the second quarter of 2022. While demand is still down 19% compared to 2019, it improved 190 basis points from the first quarter.

Third, leisure rates at our resorts remained well above 2019 levels, despite some expected moderation in the second quarter. For context, transient rates at our resorts were 61% above 2019 in the second quarter, an increase from 54% in the first quarter. Fourth, as evidenced by the airline and TSA data, we expect international demand to be a tailwind going forward. In June, U.S. international outbound air travel grew to 110% of pre-pandemic levels, while international inbound was only 80%. This aligns with U.S. outbound summer flight bookings, which are up 27% year-over-year, while corresponding inbound bookings were up only 3%, according to RateGain.

It is the first summer since 2019 that U.S. travelers had enough lead time to plan an unrestricted international vacation. We expect these trends will revert over time. Most importantly, we are not seeing evidence of a weakened consumer at our hotels. Comparable hotel food and beverage spend was up 6% to last year, driven fairly evenly by banquets and outlets, indicating the strength of both group and transient customers. This is particularly encouraging as outlet revenue grew 5% despite flat portfolio-wide occupancy. In fact, our resort outlet revenue per occupied room grew 5% in the second quarter compared to 2022. It was also the highest in Host history at $196.

Other revenue also continued to grow, with all line items up over last year, except for attrition and cancellation fees, which are moderating as expected. Golf and spa revenues remain robust, with growth over the record highs of 2022, which we believe is further evidence of the leisure traveler's desire and ability to spend on experiences. In fact, we still had five resorts with transient rates of $1,000 or more. Notably, the top three resorts were recent acquisitions, underscoring the strength of our opportunistic capital allocation strategy. Leading the pack was Alila Ventana Big Sur at nearly $1,800, and the Four Seasons Resort Orlando at Walt Disney World Resort and Four Seasons Resort and Residences Jackson Hole, both at over $1,600. Moving to our reconstruction efforts following Hurricane Ian.

In June, we completed the final phase of the restoration work at the Hyatt Regency Coconut Point, with the reopening of its water park and outdoor dining complex. Last month, we reopened the completely transformed Ritz-Carlton Naples, which combined a comprehensive renovation of the existing resort with the addition of a new 74 key tower. As part of the renovation, we expanded the guest room bathrooms to increase fixture counts, elevated the design and functionality of the rooms, and combined standard guest rooms to create multi-bay suites. We also enhanced the arrival experience with a reimagined lobby and lobby bar. The ROI development of the Vanderbilt Tower added a net 24 additional keys, increased the suite count to 92 from 35, and added new pools, cabanas, bungalows, a poolside F&B outlet with a bar, and an expanded club lounge that eliminates the capacity constraint on upsells.

In addition to the renovation and expansion, our reconstruction efforts allowed us to opportunistically enhance the resiliency of the property by elevating critical equipment, improving dry floodproofing measures, accelerating future building envelope waterproofing, and replacing major equipment with more efficient machinery. The transformation of The Ritz-Carlton Naples has been extremely well-received since the reopening. We are optimistic that the resort is set up to exceed our underwriting expectations. As an example, pace for the 2023 festive season is well above historical levels, with the expanded suite inventory and new club-level facilities in high demand. The new lobby champagne bar has quickly become the place to see and be seen in Naples for both guests and locals. We are extremely pleased with the transformation of this iconic resort, and we are excited to see the results it delivers over the years to come.

In terms of insurance proceeds related to Hurricane Ian, to date, we have received $113 million of the expected potential insurance recovery of approximately $310 million for covered costs. The proceeds have all been allocated to property damage thus far. Turning to group, revenue exceeded 2022 by 4%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter group revenue exceeded 2019. Definite group room nights on the books for 2023 increased to 3.7 million in the second quarter, which represents approximately 103% of comparable full year 2022 actual group room nights, up from 94% as of the first quarter.

For full year 2023, group rate on the books is up 7% to the same time last year, a 30 basis points increase since the first quarter. In addition. Total group revenue pace is up approximately 19% to the same time last year, and up 4.2% to the same time, 2019. Looking ahead to 2024, we have 2.2 million definite group room nights on the books. Total group revenue pace is up 13.5% to the same time last year and up 1.5% to the same time, 2019. We are encouraged by the ongoing strength of group, as evidenced by accelerating booking activity, lengthening booking windows, and tentative room nights ahead of both last year in 2019.

Moving to portfolio reinvestment, we completed comprehensive renovations at the final asset in the Marriott Transformational Capital Program, the Washington Marriott at Metro Center, during the second quarter. The program, which began in 2018, included extensive guest room and public area renovations at 16 assets and finished under budget. During the pandemic, we expanded our reinvestment strategy to include eight additional assets with required near-term CapEx, where we believe significant upside could be realized with transformational renovations. To date, we have completed seven of those eight assets. We believe these comprehensive renovations will enable us to continue to capture incremental market share above our targeted range of three to five points of RevPAR index share gains, and that is shaping up to be the case so far.

Looking at results to date, of the seven hotels that have stabilized post-renovation operations, the average RevPAR Index share gain is 8.8 points. For the full year, our 2023 CapEx guidance range is $625 million-$725 million, which reflects approximately $240 million of investment for redevelopment, repositioning, and ROI projects, as well as $125 million-$175 million for hurricane restoration work. Remaining projects include the completion of a transformational renovation of the Fairmont Kea Lani, a repositioning renovation of the Hilton Singer Island, and breaking ground on Phoenician Canyon Suite Villas and a luxury condominium development at Four Seasons Resort Orlando at Walt Disney World Resort. More broadly, we will continue to be strategic and opportunistic in our approach to driving EBITDA growth.

We have an investment-grade balance sheet, independent analytic capabilities, a diversified portfolio, and the size, scale, and team to continue executing across economic cycles. We have created meaningful shareholder value over the past 6 years by improving the quality of our cash flow, and we believe Host is ideally positioned to outperform in the current macroeconomic environment. With that, I will turn the call over to Sourav.

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Thank you, Jim. Good afternoon, everyone. Building on Jim's comments, I will go into detail on our second quarter operations, our updated 2023 guidance, and our balance sheet and dividends. Starting with business mix, overall transient revenue was up 80 basis points to the second quarter of 2022, driven by rate growth, which offset a slight decrease in demand. Softening transient demand drove the miss to RevPAR guidance, driven primarily by underperformance in San Francisco and Seattle, and at our resorts to a lesser extent. Resorts in the second quarter saw transient revenue down 8% over the all-time high of the second quarter of 2022. While transient rate at resorts was down year-over-year, it was still 61% above 2019, after being up 54% compared to 2019.

In fact, transient revenue at our resorts increased in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, despite the slight decrease in demand. Business transient revenue was 16% above the second quarter of 2022, driven by a 10% rate increase. Demand also increased by nearly 6% above last year, driven by our hotels in New York, Boston, and Washington, D.C. Our downtown properties accounted for 65% of the business transient demand, which is in line with pre-pandemic trends. Small and medium-sized businesses continue to drive the recovery, representing the majority of our business transient demand today. Turning to group. Group room revenues were 4% above the second quarter of 2022, fully driven by rate growth. The 1.1 million group room nights sold in the quarter was slightly ahead of both last year and the first quarter, which aligns with 2019 seasonal trends.

Washington, DC, Chicago, and Boston drove the group room revenue growth compared to 2022. With respect to group mix, corporate group room revenue was up 9% in the second quarter, driven by nearly 6% rate growth. As anticipated, association group revenue was down almost 3% in the second quarter compared to last year, as the second quarter of 2022 had elevated association group volume, driven by rebooking for events that were canceled during the pandemic. Social, military, educational, religious, and fraternal, or SMERF group revenue, was up 3% in the second quarter, driven by 2.5% rate growth.

Our 2024 total group revenue pace is above both 2022 and 2019. We are encouraged by the citywide booking pace in New Orleans, San Diego, Seattle, and Washington, D.C., all of which have citywide group room nights meaningfully ahead of the same time last year. Shifting gears to margin performance, our second quarter comparable hotel EBITDA margin came in at 32.7%, which is 40 basis points better than the second quarter of 2019, but below the high water mark of the second quarter of 2022, when staffing at hotels lagged demand. Total comparable expenses grew just 7.5% over 2019, while total comparable revenues were up 7.8%. As expected, attrition and cancellation revenue moderated from 2022 levels during the second quarter.

We are encouraged that comparable hotel EBITDA margin remains above 2019, despite elevated inflation over the past four years and occupancy still eight points below 2019. As Jim noted, we tightened our full year comparable hotel RevPAR growth range to 7%-9%. The RevPAR midpoint of 8% is 100 basis points less than our prior midpoint, but at the high end of the original guidance range we provided in February. We estimate that approximately 60 basis points of the midpoint decline is attributable to second quarter results, and the remaining 40 basis points is attributable to our updated outlook for the second half of the year. While we have not yet seen signs of a macroeconomic-driven slowdown, our guidance range continues to contemplate varying degrees of moderating growth in the second half of the year.

As a result, we would expect year-over-year comparable hotel RevPAR % changes in the second half of the year to be flat to up low single digits, primarily driven by occupancy. At the midpoint of our guidance, we would expect a comparable hotel EBITDA margin of 29.9%, which is 40 basis points ahead of 2019, and full year adjusted EBITDARE of $1.56 billion. Keep in mind that the midpoint of our revised full year 2023 adjusted EBITDARE guidance is still $100 million above the original guidance we provided in February, and down only $25 million from the guidance we provided in May. We expect our operational results to roughly follow 2019 quarterly seasonal trends, as provided on page 17 of our supplemental financial information.

As a reminder, the third quarter of the year is historically the weakest of the four quarters in terms of both nominal dollars and margins due to seasonal market and business mix shifts. Our 2023 full year adjusted EBITDARE guidance includes an expected $17 million contribution from Hyatt Regency Coconut Point and the Ritz-Carlton Naples, both of which are excluded from our comparable hotel results due to impacts from Hurricane Ian. As we have discussed previously, the pre-hurricane estimated contribution from these two hotels, including the new tower at The Ritz-Carlton Naples, was expected to be an additional $71 million in 2023. It is also important to note that we have not included any expected business interruption proceeds from Hurricane Ian in our 2023 guidance.

As we have discussed over the past few quarters, year-over-year, we expect comparable hotel EBITDA margins to be down 210 basis points at the low end of our guidance, to down 170 basis points at the high end, due to stable staffing levels at our hotels, higher utility and insurance expenses, and lower attrition and cancellation fees. We expect the biggest margin differential year-over-year to be in the second quarter, with a narrowing margin spread in the second half of the year. For these reasons, we do not believe 2022 represents a stabilized comparison for margins.

Relative to 2019, which is more representative year for margin comparison, we expect margins this year to be up 20 basis points at the low end of our guidance to up 60 basis points at the high end, despite lagging occupancy and elevated inflation pressures over the past four years. Our efforts to transform the portfolio and evolve the hotel operating model are enabling this margin expansion. As we have discussed in the past, it is particularly impressive when you consider that our forecasted total hotel expense CAGR from 2019 to 2023 is only 1.6%, versus the forecasted core CPI CAGR of 4% over the same period.

Turning to our balance sheet and liquidity position, our weighted average maturity is 4.7 years at a weighted average interest rate of 4.5%, and we have no significant maturities until April 2024. We ended the second quarter at 2.2 times leverage, and we have $2.5 billion of total available liquidity, which includes $213 million of FF&E reserves and full availability of our $1.5 billion credit facility. In addition, during the second quarter, we achieved a milestone in our progress towards our renewable energy goal, resulting in a 2.5 basis points reduction in the interest rate on the outstanding term loans under our sustainability linked credit facility....

We paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share, an increase of $0.03 or 25% over the prior quarter in July. Though we expect to maintain our quarterly dividend at a sustainable level, taking into consideration potential macroeconomic factors, all future dividends are subject to approval by the company's board of directors. We remain optimistic on the future of our business and travel overall. In any scenario, we believe our portfolio, our balance sheet, and our team are well positioned to continue outperforming, and we will continue to be strategic in the current macroeconomic environment. With that, we would be happy to take your questions. To ensure we have time to address as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. I would like to once again remind you to please, if possible, limit yourself to one question. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question is coming from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI. Your line is live.

Duane Pfennigwerth (Senior Managing Director of Equity Research)

Hey, thank you. Appreciate the macro stats, excuse me, that you shared. Do you have any way to track international inbound as a % of your own portfolio? Where, where does that stand now versus pre-pandemic levels as a % of the mix?

Jim Risoleo (President and CEO)

Yeah, Duane, pre-pandemic, international inbound accounted for roughly 10% of our room nights. In quarter two of 2022, it was 7.8%, and that is compared to 7.4% in 2022 in the second quarter. We, we feel that international inbound is a tailwind to our portfolio performance going forward. You know, in particular, if, if you saw in the month of June, international inbound was only 80% of where it was in June of 2019. Outbound, as we've talked about, was 110% of where it was in June of 2019.

As the world starts to normalize and hopefully as we can sort out the visa wait times in the U.S., which are 400 days now on average, and it's a real drag on international inbound. As an example, Canada, you can get a visa from a country that they require a visa for travel to Canada in 55 days. That is, that's a big issue that we as an industry are dealing with through U.S. travel and through AHLA as well. The other impediment at this point in time, with respect to international inbound in our West Coast markets in particular, is travel from China. The pre-pandemic, we had 350 direct flights a week between the U.S. and China.

As it sits today, we have 24. You know, we're optimistic that over time, things are going to normalize, and that we're going to see the return of the international travel, which will further bolster our performance.

Duane Pfennigwerth (Senior Managing Director of Equity Research)

Thanks. Then just for my follow-up on BI, on the business interruption. As you think about, you know, growth into 2024, you'll have a natural recovery in Naples from the Ritz being back online. My guess is that would begin to contribute year on year in the fourth quarter. From a growth perspective, what would be the ideal timing for BI reimbursement to hit?

Jim Risoleo (President and CEO)

Well, you know, I'll, I'll let Sourav jump in on this, but let, let me just kind of set the table with respect to how our insurance program works. You know, we've collected $113 million, all related to restoration and physical damage repair. We have a $130 million receivable outstanding, we won't start recognizing business interruption proceeds until we collect the $130 million at a minimum.

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, Duane, and the timing, honestly, that's why we don't have it in our forecast. It's very difficult to say. We're working with the insurance carriers right now, in terms of determining how much the BI amount is. So the collection of it could be, could be certainly some amount in Q3 bleeding into Q4, as well as into the following year. We actually got from Hurricane Ida, if you recall, which impacted New Orleans last year, we just got a $2.7 million BI payment this quarter. The timing is very difficult to gauge. We fully expect, as we said, that we would be paid out, and it's certainly going to be a meaningful amount. The exact timing is very difficult to predict at this point in time.

Duane Pfennigwerth (Senior Managing Director of Equity Research)

Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Ari Klein with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is live.

Ari Klein (VP of Equity Research)

Thanks, and good afternoon. Within, within the second quarter, was it June, where you saw things not really play out as you expected? Then the magnitude of the implied impact to second half RevPAR in guidance is I guess, less of the impact in Q2. Can you give some color on the underlying assumptions, and is there something in there that's maybe better than you originally expected?

Jim Risoleo (President and CEO)

Ari, can you clarify that? Are you referring to the, the, our assumptions with respect to the second half of the year?

Ari Klein (VP of Equity Research)

Yeah. The, the first part was, was just on, you know, when you started to see the weakness in the second quarter. The second part was, you know, I think the RevPAR impact was 60 basis points, you know, worse than expected in the second quarter, and then another 40 basis points in the second half of the year. Just curious if you can give some more color on the second half and some of the underlying assumptions there, and how you expect that to play out, if there's anything better or worse than, you know, than you originally expected?

Jim Risoleo (President and CEO)

Sure. You know, as, as we saw performance weaken in the month of June, that's really when it we saw the vast majority of the weakness occur. We went back at the property level and really looked at the assumptions that were in the forecast with respect to transient pickup in the quarter for the quarter. You may recall that we had transient pickup as high as 28% in the quarter for the quarter, and another quarter was at 20%. That didn't materialize for the second quarter. You know, as, as we have talked about trends normalizing, we think that is a trend that is normalizing at this point in time.

We were very, I would say, thoughtful and deliberate about how we expected the second half of the year to play out. We really washed out a meaningful amount of the transient pickup in the quarter for the quarter, and that led to our revised forecast. Is that helpful?

Ari Klein (VP of Equity Research)

Yeah, I appreciate the color. Then just a, you know, quick other question. I think you have some seller financing coming up, later this year. Any, any update there on, on how, how you expect that to play out?

Jim Risoleo (President and CEO)

Yeah, sure. Well, we had the loan on the Sheraton Boston matured. The maturity date was August 1st, two days ago. The borrower was in the process of refinancing us out, and they needed a little more time to do it. We entered into an agreement with that borrower to provide for a 60-day extension. It also involved the receipt of a 10% principal pay down on our loan, which was $16.1 million, and we have received that money. We restated the interest rate from 6.5% to 12%.

That loan is now due at the end of September, but we materially improved our position on it, and I am very confident that the borrower is going to be able to get the financing done. The nuance was a condo regime that they were pursuing on the property to effectuate their business plan. They are going to convert one tower to student housing and leave the other tower as a hotel, and it was just taking a bit longer to effectuate, effectuate the, the, the condo documents and the like to get it done.

With respect to the loan on the Marquis, we have been in contact with the borrower, and they are actively in the market, pursuing a refinance. We feel good that they're gonna be able to get that deal done.

Ari Klein (VP of Equity Research)

Great. Thanks for all the color.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Anthony Powell with Barclays. Your line is live.

Anthony Powell (Director of Equity Research)

Hi, good afternoon. Just just one from me, and I guess on the other side of the refinancing activity, we saw that a owner of a resort in Maui was able to get a hotel refinance with a cash out refi at, at a high rate, but good proceeds. Do you think that kind of ability will limit kind of the number of deals that come to market in terms of your ability to maybe do some larger acquisitions here?

Jim Risoleo (President and CEO)

You know, I, I think it's, it, it really is very, sponsor specific, market specific, and hotel specific, Anthony. you know, the, the asset that you're referring to, in Maui, had been on the market for sale, on, on more than one occasion, frankly. it's something that we obviously looked at, but given our exposure on Maui and the assets that we own, it wasn't something that we could get excited about. whenever they, could not effectuate the, a sale at the price that they wanted, they were able to get the deal done. that's a, that's a unique asset because it had. As you know, the resort market is extremely strong, and it had really strong underlying cash flow, strong performance.

It had undergone a renovation, and, you know, it had the right equity, capital behind it as well. There will be circumstances like the Maui property, where sellers will, will be able to get an attractive refinance, but there are also going to be circumstances where, you know, all those boxes aren't checked. You know, whether or not the asset is, is not performing well, whether or not it's been reinvested in, whether or not it's in a market that a lender would find attractive to, to deploy capital to, so deploy money to.

I, I still believe that over time, given the fact that there have been so many assets that have not been reinvested in, over the course of the pandemic, and, you know, owner/borrowers are, are strapped for cash, and they have to put capital into their hotels, that we may, may see opportunities as, as later in this year and into 2024.

Smedes Rose (Director)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Smedes Rose with Citi. Your line is live.

Smedes Rose (Director)

Hi, thanks. I just wanted to ask you a little more about the, the weaker than expected transient business in San Francisco and Seattle. I think, you know, in San Francisco, maybe it's not all that surprising, given kind of continued delays in their recovery and a lot of sort of ugly headline issues around quality of life. In Seattle, if you, do you ascribe the weakness to just kind of more of sort of local economic issues, maybe to do with the tech industry? Are you also starting to see, you know, a pullback in visitation because of sort of, you know, issues that that city might be having as well, and is that going to become, you know, a drag longer term on the portfolio?

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Okay, Smedes. With Seattle, we actually saw BT improve. That was certainly not an issue with Seattle. It was just overall sort of anticipation of how much we could pick up not only in the quarter for the quarter, but really in the month for the month. It was sort of we started seeing the trend shift a little bit at the end of May into, into June. For us, you know, Seattle actually continues to be a relatively-- it was always a weaker market to begin with at the beginning of this year, but there is signs, especially as you look into 2024, citywide and, and just pace, there certainly is strength in the Seattle market moving forward. This we attribute really to sort of short-term, transient, transient pickup.

Overall, I mean, when you look at sort of, Seattle, like specifically, you know, BT revenue, grew actually year-over-year by about 5%, and that was all rate driven, by Amazon. Group-- room nights and total revenue production also exceeded our internal, forecast. It really was BT driven. It wasn't anything to do with, do with a group at all. Overall, really sort of, sorry, leisure driven versus BT driven.

Smedes Rose (Director)

Okay. Could I just follow up on that? When you-- as you reintroduced The Ritz-Carlton, and you talked about the $71 million, I guess, that you lost through disruption, when-- what sort of timeframe would you expect to recoup that? Is that something that will happen all in 2023, or how are you thinking about that?

Jim Risoleo (President and CEO)

Well, I, I think this goes to the earlier question regarding the receipt of timing of business interruption proceeds. You know, we haven't put the BI in our forecast because we just don't know when we're going to receive it. You know, I'm hopeful that certainly through the course of 2024, we should be able to close out most, if not all, of the claim associated with Hurricane Ian. We do anticipate very strong performance from both the Ritz and the Hyatt Regency next year as well.

Smedes Rose (Director)

Okay, do you think I mean, I was less asking about the business interruption and more just about recouping, the EBITDA that was lost and getting back to, getting that $71 million back just from operations. Do you think that's a 2024?

Jim Risoleo (President and CEO)

That should, you know, barring a macroeconomic meltdown, that will certainly happen throughout the course of 2024. I mean, it's a seasonal property. We're very pleased with the pace that we're seeing around festive, which is really, you know, December, January, February. December, January, and then the property really takes off in that period of time in the first quarter. There is incredible enthusiasm for the new offerings at the hotel, at the resort in Naples. It's a really unique property, and we're very optimistic that it's going to perform very well. We should, between those two assets over the course of 2024, rebuild our $71 million that we lost this year due to Ian.

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Hey, Smedes, I just want to clarify here, so you understand. We are actually picking up, combined for a non-comparable hotel, which includes Coconut Point and The Ritz-Carlton Naples, $17 million in the Adjusted EBITDA numbers. It's not in our hotel EBITDA, but it is in our Adjusted EBITDA. That's for 2023. The 2024 $71 million, which we're saying, that's incremental to that $17 million. None of that $71 million is really in the 2023 number, if that makes sense.

Smedes Rose (Director)

Okay, thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from David Katz with Jefferies. Your line is live.

David Katz (Managing Director)

Hi. Afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to go back to the expense side because it's come up a handful of times around the cost of labor. One, as, as a function of just being fully staffed on a comparable basis versus last year, but two, the actual, you know, per person cost of it and whether that's going up. Secondarily, you know, we've talked before about the cost of insurance, and I just wanted to get an update there as well, please.

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Sure. I think we had messaged before that our wage rate growth for this year, we expect it to be around 5%, and that we are still holding to that. Thus far, when you look through our expenses, we've actually performed pretty well on our expenses, and you can see that in our margin expansion relative to 2019, for the second quarter, as well as what we are expecting for the full year to the midpoint being 40 basis points. Labor-wise, we still expect the 5% rate growth. We are seeing all the productivity improvements we made as a result of redefining our operating model, still holding, and certainly, something that is sustainable, which is driving the margin expansion to 2019.

As far as insurance goes, we had baked into the forecast, approximately 50% of premium increase. Our renewal was in June 1st. We maintained our coverage and the limits that we had previously, so no change to that. The overall rate increase was about 38%, and the premium increase, like I said, was close to 50%. For the full year, which is already in our forecast and was in our forecast, insurance, insurance expense is expected to go up, about 40% year-over-year, which equates to approximately $61 million for 2023.

David Katz (Managing Director)

Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Michael Bellisario with Baird. Your line is live.

Michael Bellisario (Director)

Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. Just one question for me on the group booking front. Can you provide some color just on what markets you're seeing pick up momentum? Are also any markets in the portfolio that were either softer or you see softening or maybe just leveling off, as you look out to the back half of the year in 2024? Thank you.

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Sure. For specifically for 2024, as Jim mentioned, our group, total group revenue pace is ahead to 2019 by 1.5%. And just to remind you, you know, when we were looking sort of in the, in the end of last year, we were actually down double digits in, in total revenue pace, and that improved to down about 4.4% to 2019 in the first quarter, and now it's actually positive. We are seeing really positive activity and momentum when it comes to 2024 pace. For our specific portfolio, where we are seeing pace very strong is Atlanta, Chicago, New Orleans, New York, Phoenix, San Diego, as mentioned earlier, Seattle, and Washington, D.C.

That wraps with sort of the citywide pace improvement as well, where we're seeing positive citywide, better than 19, and for New Orleans, San Diego, Seattle, and D.C.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Bill Crow with Raymond James. Your line is live.

Bill Crow (Managing Director)

Thanks. Good afternoon. Hey, Jim, help me understand this leisure normalization that we're all talking about, because implicit in your remarks, at least I, I took it that maybe rate is staying strong, but demand is off. We heard from a peer this morning that said, rate is down 10%, one of their markets, but demand is strong. I, I guess I'm trying to figure out what you're seeing out there. Is it on the demand side? Is it on the rate side? Is it both, on the leisure normalization?

Jim Risoleo (President and CEO)

Sure, Bill. We had always anticipated in our forecasting that rate was going to back off a bit. I mean, that we, we never believed that rate was going to be sustainable relative to where it was in 2019. Certainly, you know, in 2Q 2022 was a, a, a, an anomaly on many, many fronts, given Omicron in Q1. We assumed rate was going to come down, and it did. I think our leisure rate came down about 7% all in all. That said, it was still 61% higher than where it was in 2019.

What we didn't anticipate, and I don't think anybody anticipated, if you look at the commentary of travel-related companies in general, whether they're, you know, the car rental companies or the airlines, was the desire by the U.S. consumer to travel abroad. That is where we saw the softness in our leisure business, because we didn't pick up the volume that we anticipated that we would. I think our total leisure occupancy was down by one percentage point. It was nothing meaningful by any stretch of the imagination. You know, rates are still at record levels. You know, as you saw in the release, TRevPAR was up 3.8%, we're still seeing very healthy out-of-room spend, whether it's at outlets or golf, spa, and otherwise.

I mean, we had a record outlet spend per occupied room, I think, of $193 or $196 in the quarter. You know, I don't know if people are gonna go to Europe every quarter or if they're gonna go to Europe in the second quarter of next year, but clearly, this was a phenomenon that I think everyone missed. You know, we're just very comfortable with how the resorts have performed in general. Certainly from a rate perspective, you know, the issue was really a slowdown in volume.

Bill Crow (Managing Director)

If I could, if I could just pursue that just a little bit more because you talked about this normalization and kind of the, we call it the travel, the international travel imbalance. But it's been kind of three years of pent-up demand, so it seems like that could continue for a while longer. And I'm just, I'm just curious, and you probably don't have an answer, but yours is better than mine. Are we gonna be talking about continued normalization next year?

Jim Risoleo (President and CEO)

You know, I, I hope we can get I frankly, Bill, I hope we, we can get beyond talking about 2019 and 2022, and say, "Okay, 2023 is the year we look at, and it's in our new, our new, new benchmark and our new base year going forward." So, you know, normalization to occur in 2024, I frankly think that, that's a tailwind to us. It really is a tailwind because of where international inbound performed in the second quarter. Some of the issues we talked about with respect to flights from China and visa wait times and things of that nature, I mean, we just didn't see any pickup in our resort properties or elsewhere, frankly, from the international inbound travel.

I mean, we had 10% of our room nights in 2019. We were 7.8%. Again, I think it's a, a positive for us going forward, and I think it's a positive for the industry going forward. We're certainly not seeing anyone rein in. The consumer is very healthy. We're not seeing them rein in their spending.

Bill Crow (Managing Director)

Great. Thanks, Jim, I appreciate it.

Jim Risoleo (President and CEO)

You're welcome.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Tyler Batory with Oppenheimer. Your line is live.

Tyler Batory (Executive Director)

Good afternoon. Thank you. I, I just want to stick on the, the leisure topic for, for a minute here. It's a multi-part question. I mean, a lot of the commentary relates to your resort properties. I'm also interested in what you're seeing urban leisure, specifically on, on the weekends, if that's following a similar trajectory in terms of a, of a softness that you're experiencing on the resort side. You know, just, just kind of a, a follow-up, thinking about revenue management. You know, if demand slows further from here at your resort properties, would you look to hold on to, to, to occupancy, and lower rates, or, or maybe you want to hold on to rate and, and you're okay sacrificing some, some occupancy? Just trying to think through some of the, some of the scenarios there.

Jim Risoleo (President and CEO)

Yeah. I'll, I'll, I'll answer the second part of your question first, and let Sourav talk, talk to the first part regarding urban leisure. You know, that's a, a, a tricky question to answer without really, looking at the proper yield management strategies. You know, you, you flow a much greater percentage of ADR to the bottom line than you do a point in occupancy. I, I think one of the things that has been, really encouraging over the course of, the last several years is the fact that, generally across the board, properties have held rates, and rate integrity has remained intact. You know, there would have to be a, a real meaningful trade-off, i.e., a significant, pickup in occupancy before we would consider cutting rate.

Because once you cut rate, it's difficult to go back the other direction. As I said, you know, we saw a 1% reduction in occupancy in Q2, and rate was still 60% above where it was in the second quarter of 2019. It, it really just flows to the bottom line and has a meaningful impact on margin performance.

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, and on the, on the leisure front, when you're looking at the urban hotels, they actually were pretty consistent overall. We didn't see the same level of drop off, if you will, in terms of the demand, and we saw a little more consistent short term, in the quarter for the quarter pickup, with the exception, obviously, of San Francisco and Seattle, as we mentioned. Overall, when you look at sort of our you know, overall other market performance, we were actually up in rate, 6.3%, and for our convention portfolio, about 5.1% overall, for that, and while resort was actually down about 4%. Definitely had a more stable performance, even when we looked at the holiday performance, during the quarter.

Tyler Batory (Executive Director)

Okay, great. Appreciate that detail.

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Chris Woronka with Deutsche Bank. Your line is live.

Chris Woronka (Senior Analyst)

Hey, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for all the details so far. Questions on, on the tail that you expect to get from the, from the capital transformation program. I think you mentioned eight of the hotels are fully stabilized and you're getting the nine points. You know, just how long does that last? What about the other, I guess, eight or nine hotels? You know, does that make you want to? I think you mentioned there were two others that you renovated that weren't in the original program. Does that make you, Jim, wanna look at even more hotels and, as other owners are, you know, dealing with issues and maybe not fully keeping up on their own capital?

Jim Risoleo (President and CEO)

The, the, the short answer to the second part of your question, Chris, is, we will continue to be opportunistic. Where we see an opportunity to do a transformational renovation, and I want to underline the word transformational, because I think that is why we are seeing the outperformance that we're achieving in, the recently renovated and stabilized properties. We have the, we have the balance sheet, we have the capital, we have the, the team internally to, to execute on, those types of opportunities, and we will certainly, look to, deploy capital, where we think we can achieve better than three to five points in yield index. To answer your question, you know, with respect to how long does it last?

Well, I, I, I suppose I, I, I, I could tell you that it would last until the property looks hard, and we have to renovate it again, and that's probably, you know, you're talking a seven-year cycle generally, for a rooms renovation, seven to eight years, roughly. We are really optimistic that, that we were able to deploy the type of capital that we did into our properties over the course of the pandemic, and we expect to see future strong outperformance going forward.

Chris Woronka (Senior Analyst)

Okay. Very helpful. Thanks, Jim.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Robin Farley with UBS. Your line is live.

Robin Farley (Managing Director)

Great, thanks. Just wanted to understand a little bit better your guidance for second half margin. You have the declines kind of moderating from Q2, but RevPAR not necessarily much stronger. Just, just kind of wondering how you got comfortable because a lot of those factors you mentioned, I, I, I would think could still have tough comps in terms of labor costs and and cancellations, you know, fewer cancellation fees. Just any color there you can give us?

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, Robin, I mean, when you look at sort of our guidance, I'll speak to the EBITDA dollars perspective, we basically took it down, what, about $25 million, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks. We would attribute about $17 million, really to the second quarter and about $8 million or, sorry, $18 million to the second quarter and then $7 million, call it, to the second half. The way we -- you look at sort of the RevPAR growth that we're assuming, we effectively looked at the short-term pickup market by market and the expected, in the quarter for the quarter pickup and really scrubbed that, to get to the RevPAR growth, of, you know, low, low single-digit growth for the second half.

On the expense side, the expense drivers that we effectively flowed through was all revenue driven. When you look at the second quarter as well, the relative drop in terms of margin, to what we had guided to was more than 80% all revenue driven. We feel very comfortable with all the expense growth that we have in there. The only thing we did moderate is also food and beverage revenue, which obviously, just given, you know, Q2 trends, we moderated that. That flows through the food and beverage department line as well as impacts margin. We feel very comfortable in terms of our expense forecast for the second half, relative to the revenue growth that we have.

Robin Farley (Managing Director)

Okay, great. Thank you. I don't know if I heard you guys mention an expectation for corporate negotiated rate for next year?

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

No, we did not. That will not start until really later in August. We'll have more color as to what that will be shaping up like probably in, on our third quarter call, as we typically do.

Robin Farley (Managing Director)

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you so much. Our final question will be coming from Dori Kesten of Wells Fargo. Your line is live.

Dori Kesten (Director)

Thanks. You mentioned a few times washing out the short-term transient pickup in the second half of the year. What would your guidance look like if the pickup was comparable to 2019?

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

What it would look like if it was in terms of the transient pickup being comparable to 2019?

Dori Kesten (Director)

Yes.

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Because we are obviously off from a BP perspective, meaningfully, we are off by 20%. Group is, group room nights are also off, so it's kind of difficult to say relative to 2019 in terms of room nights, because we are up in rate, right? I don't have exactly what that number would be, if our rate was held exactly at 2019 and, you know, we had the same amount of room nights in 2019.

Dori Kesten (Director)

Okay, I'll, I guess I'll ask a second one. You've talked about the healthy out-of-room spend, and I think year-to-date, the RevPAR to total RevPAR growth spread is about 200 basis points. I'm just trying to figure out, like, what are you seeing in the second half of the year that leads you to believe by year-end, room and out-of-room spend growth should converge?

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

When you look at where the food and beverage came in for the second quarter relative to 2019, it was certainly lower. That was really being driven by sort of the type of groups that we actually got in second quarter and a lot of the rebookings that took place during the pandemic that were in Q2. When you look forward into Q3 and Q4, our, as we mentioned earlier, third quarter is our weakest group quarter. Food and beverage and banquet and AV will be lower as well in Q3. Q4 is a strong group quarter for us, and that's where we feel like, you know, food and beverage should perform well in the fourth quarter, just based on the catering pace that we have.

As a reminder, banquet and catering contribution, which is the metric we looked at, which was up 20% in Q1, that was up over 6% in Q2 as well. We still have, we still believe in the strength of banquet and AV going forward in the second half, as well as the outlet performance of our resorts, which, by the way, on a per occupied room basis, was 46% above 2019.

Dori Kesten (Director)

Okay, thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question and answer session, so I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Risoleo for any closing comments he may have.

Jim Risoleo (President and CEO)

I'd like to thank everybody for joining us on our second quarter call today. We appreciate the opportunity to discuss our quarterly results with you. We hope you enjoy the rest of your summer, and we look forward to seeing many of you in person this fall. Thanks again.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This concludes today's call, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation.