Host Hotels & Resorts - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, and welcome to the Host Hotels & Resorts Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Jaime Marcus, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. One moment, please. I'm having a slight technical difficulty. One moment.

Jaime Marcus (SVP, Investor Relations)

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, please note that many of the comments made today are considered to be forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. As described in our filings with the SEC, these statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed, and we are not obligated to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements.

In addition, on today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial information, such as FFO, Adjusted EBITDAre, and comparable hotel-level results. You can find this information, together with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP information, in yesterday's earnings press release, in our 8-K filed with the SEC, and in the supplemental financial information on our website at hosthotels.com. With me on today's call are Jim Risoleo, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jim.

Jim Risoleo (President, CEO and Director)

Thank you, Jaime, and thanks to everyone for joining us this morning. Before we turn to the quarter, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the devastating wildfires that occurred on the island of Maui this past August. All of us at Host were deeply saddened by the loss of life and heartbreaking impact on local communities. As the largest hotel real estate owner on Maui for over 20 years, Host has long shared a connection to the island, and helping to support the community through this difficult time is important to our company. We are proud to have aided recovery and rebuilding efforts, donating more than $250,000 to emergency response and relief organizations, as well as providing direct financial assistance and relief to our hotel's employees. We also provided food and shelter to these employees, their families, and emergency response teams.

The strength and resilience of the Maui community inspires us, and we are committed to supporting them as the recovery continues. Now, let's move to our results for the quarter. Please note that the results presented on today's call represent the comparable hotel portfolio, which includes all three Maui resorts and continues to exclude The Ritz-Carlton, Naples, and Hyatt Regency Coconut Point. When applicable, we will provide estimated impacts from Maui to certain results to provide a more comprehensive view of business trends in the quarter. During the Q3, we delivered a comparable hotel RevPAR improvement of 1.8% compared to the Q3 of 2022. Our RevPAR performance for the quarter was driven by an occupancy increase of 150 basis points, led by our convention hotels in downtown locations.

Overall, Maui had less of an impact on our results than we initially expected, as we were able to replace high-rated transient business with recovery and relief group business, which impacted our demand mix this quarter. We delivered adjusted EBITDAre of $361 million, which includes $54 million of business interruption proceeds from Hurricane Ian, and delivered adjusted FFO per share of $0.41, beating consensus on both metrics. Q3 comparable hotel EBITDA margin of 26.6% exceeded 2019 by 10 basis points, and this marks the sixth consecutive quarter since the onset of the pandemic that we have achieved TRevPAR, RevPAR, comparable hotel EBITDA, and margins ahead of 2019 levels.

Comparable hotel RevPAR for October is expected to be approximately $229, a 2.4% improvement over 2022. We estimate that the Maui wildfires impacted Q3 comparable hotel RevPAR by 60 basis points, comparable hotel TRevPAR by 120 basis points, and comparable hotel EBITDA by $4.5 million. Our risk management team is continuing to engage with our insurers about potential business interruption coverage, and the timing and amounts of any potential proceeds are not yet known. Despite the wildfires on Maui, which we expect will impact our full-year RevPAR guidance by 50 basis points, we maintained the midpoint of our previous full-year expected comparable hotel RevPAR growth at 8% and tightened our full-year RevPAR growth guidance range to 7.25%-8.75%.

At the midpoint of our guidance, full year 2023 comparable hotel EBITDA is forecasted to be 8.5% above 2019, with comparable hotel RevPAR growth 5.6% greater than 2019. As we look at the current macro picture, we continue to be optimistic about the state of travel for several reasons. First, group business continues to improve. During the quarter, we booked 245,000 group rooms for 2023, and total group revenue pace is now 6.7% ahead of the same time, 2019, up from 4.2% as of the Q2.... Even without the recovery and relief groups on Maui, total group revenue would have been above both 2022 and 2019.

The group booking window continues to extend, and we are pleased with the base we have on the books for next year. Second, business transient demand continued its gradual improvement during the Q3. Business transient revenue was up approximately 9% to 2022, and demand improved 5% compared to the Q3 of 2022. Overall, business transient revenue is down approximately 16% compared to 2019, with room nights down approximately 20%. Room nights have gradually improved throughout the year. In January, we were down nearly 23% to 2019, and in September, we were down just 17% to 2019. We see the continued evolution of business travel as a tailwind in the future.

Third, leisure rates at our resorts remained well above 2019 levels, despite continued moderation in the Q3, as expected. For context, transient rates at our resorts were 56% above 2019 in the Q3, which is particularly impressive when considering that this excludes the benefits from our 2 newly renovated, non-comparable hotels in Florida and includes the impact from our 3 resorts on Maui. Fourth, we expect international demand to be a positive trend going forward. International inbound air traffic increased to 88% of 2019 levels in September, up from 80% in June. At the same time, international outbound air traffic increased to 118% of 2019 levels after hovering near 108% since January, which indicates that consumers continue to prioritize travel.

As evidenced by recent booking volume trends for U.S. airlines, the international imbalance is likely to revert to 2019 levels over time. Most importantly, we are not seeing evidence of a weakened consumer at our hotels. Food and beverage outlet revenues remain both above 2022 and 2019, driven by resorts and non-resorts alike, which is encouraging given that occupancy still lags 2019 levels. Golf and spa revenues also remain significantly ahead of pre-pandemic levels. Taken together, we believe this indicates that consumers continue to desire and ability to spend on experiences at our hotels. Moving to our reconstruction efforts following Hurricane Ian, the newly transformed Ritz-Carlton, Naples has been very well received since its reopening in July, and we are optimistic that the resort is set up to exceed our underwriting expectations.

Transient rates were 75% above 2019 for the second half of this year, driven by the increased suite mix in the new Vanderbilt Tower. Looking forward to festive season, club level room night booking pace is up more than 20% over the same time in 2019, with an ADR premium of almost $900, and suite bookings are pacing up 125% with a more than $1,300 rate increase over 2019. We are proud of the well-deserved attention The Ritz-Carlton, Naples is receiving, including regaining the coveted AAA Five Diamond designation, and we look forward to seeing the results it delivers in the years to come.

In terms of insurance proceeds related to Hurricane Ian, to date, we have received $208 million of the expected potential insurance recovery of approximately $310 million for covered costs. During the Q3, we received $54 million of business interruption proceeds, and we expect to receive an additional $26 million of business interruption proceeds in the Q4. Turning to group, revenue exceeded 2022 by 10% in the Q3, marking the fifth consecutive quarter group revenue exceeded 2019. Definite group room nights on the books for 2023 increased to 4 million in the Q3, which represents approximately 110% of comparable full year 2022 actual group room nights, up from 103% as of the Q2.

For full year 2023, total group revenue pace is up approximately 20% to the same time last year and up 6.7% to the same time 2019, in part due to recovery and relief groups on Maui. Group rate on the books is up 7% to the same time last year, a 40 basis point increase since the Q2. Looking ahead to 2024, we have 2.6 million definite group room nights on the books, a 15% increase since the Q2. Total group revenue pace is up 13% to the same time last year, driven fairly evenly by room nights and rate. We are encouraged by the ongoing strength of group, as evidenced by increasing pace, lengthening booking windows, and improving citywide calendars.

Moving to portfolio reinvestment, we are excited to announce that we reached an agreement with Hyatt to complete transformational reinvestment capital projects at six properties in our portfolio. The properties include the Grand Hyatt Atlanta, the Grand Hyatt Washington, D.C., the Grand Hyatt San Diego, the Hyatt Regency Austin, the Hyatt Regency Capitol Hill, and the Hyatt Regency Reston. Building on the success of the Marriott Transformational Capital Program, we believe these portfolio investments will position the targeted hotels to compete better in their respective markets while enhancing long-term performance. Hyatt has agreed to provide us with priority returns on these investments. Additionally, Hyatt will provide $40 million in operating profit guarantees as protection for the anticipated disruption associated with the incremental investment.

Our total investment is expected to be approximately $550 million-$600 million, two-thirds of which we were planning to invest as part of our capital plan over the next few years. We expect to invest between $125 million and $200 million per year over the next 3-4 years on this program. We are targeting stabilized annual cash-on-cash returns in the low double digits on our incremental investment, through a combination of enhanced owners priority returns and RevPAR index share gains.

Turning to our capital expenditure guidance for 2023, we tightened the range to $615 million-$695 million, which includes approximately $200 million-$230 million of investment for redevelopment, repositioning, and ROI projects, and $150 million-$175 million for hurricane restoration work. Major capital expenditure projects include the December completion of a transformational renovation at the Fairmont Kea Lani, as well as the start of construction at the Phoenician Canyon Suites Villas and a luxury condominium development at Four Seasons Resort Orlando at Walt Disney World Resort.

Lastly, we are well underway with the repositioning renovation of the Hilton Singer Island, which is expected to be complete in the Q1 of 2024, and we are working with Hilton to soft brand the hotel as a Curio Collection Resort. We are targeting a stabilized cash-on-cash return in the mid-teens on our repositioning investment. As we have said many times before, our exceptional balance sheet puts us in a position to execute on multiple fronts, which is what you saw us do during the Q3. We continued to reinvest in our portfolio, and we believe our comprehensive renovations will enhance the EBITDA growth of our portfolio well into the future.

We announced an exciting transformational capital program with Hyatt. We purchased approximately $100 million of stock and returned capital to shareholders through a 20% increase in our quarterly dividend. We continue to be optimistic about the state of travel, and we believe Host is very well positioned to outperform in the current economic environment. With that, I will turn the call over to Sourav.

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Building on Jim's comments, I will go into detail on our Q3 operations, our updated 2023 guidance, our balance sheet, and our dividend. Starting with business mix, we estimate that Maui impacted overall transient revenue by 450 basis points, which skewed the comparison this quarter, resulting in transient revenue down 330 basis points to the Q3 of 2022. We were encouraged that transient rates at resorts remained 56% higher than 2019, despite the impact from Maui and the renovation at the 1 Hotel South Beach, which contributed to the decline over last year. As expected, during the Q3, we continued to see a normalization in transient rates at resorts compared to 2022. Business transient revenue was approximately 9% above the Q3 of 2022.

Business transient rooms sold remain approximately 20% below 2019 levels, but it's worth noting that New York, San Francisco, and Denver, three of our largest business transient markets, were within 10% of 2019 room nights in the Q3. Looking at top business transient customers, large consulting and audit firms continue to drive the biggest share of business travel room nights, but they're also the largest contributor to room night decline compared to 2019. Encouragingly, during the Q3, large technology companies showed room night growth compared to 2019. Turning to group. Group room revenues were 10% above the Q3 of 2022, driven by a rate increase of 8%. It is worth noting that these results were skewed higher by the recovery and relief groups at our Maui resorts, which positively impacted group room revenue.

In the quarter for the quarter, group room night bookings were up 49% compared to last year and 85% compared to 2019, with growth driven by New York, Phoenix, and San Francisco, as our convention hotels continued to focus on building a strong in-house group base. Maui also contributed to the strong in the quarter for the quarter bookings, but results would still have been up meaningfully, excluding its contribution. We are encouraged by the continued recovery of international arrivals to San Francisco, which stood at 87% of 2019 levels in the Q3, up from 76% in the Q1, driven by increased airlifts from Asia.... With respect to group mix, corporate group room revenue was up 8% in the Q3, driven by 7% rate growth.

Association group revenue was down 11% in the Q3 compared to last year, led by a decline in room nights as the citywide recovery remains uneven. Social, military, educational, religious, and fraternal, or SMURF group revenue, was up 39% in the Q3, driven by recovery and relief room nights on Maui, which are designated in the SMURF category. Excluding Maui, room night growth in this category would still have been up over 7%, led by our hotels in New York and Washington, D.C. Looking ahead, our 2024 total group revenue pace is 13% ahead of the same time last year, and we continue to be encouraged by the citywide booking pace in markets such as Seattle, New Orleans, and San Diego, all of which have citywide group room nights meaningfully ahead of the same time last year.

Shifting gears to margin performance, our Q3 comparable hotel EBITDA margin came in at 26.6%, which is 10 basis points above the Q3 of 2019. Total comparable expenses grew 5.5% over 2019, while total comparable revenues were up 5.6%. As we have said many times before, we are encouraged that comparable hotel EBITDA margin remains above 2019, despite elevated expense inflation over the past four years and occupancy still 8 points below 2019. As Jim mentioned, despite the impact of the wildfires in Maui, we maintained the midpoint of our previous full year expected comparable hotel RevPAR growth at 8% and tightened our full year RevPAR growth guidance range to 7.25%-8.75%.

Our guidance range continues to contemplate varying degrees of moderating growth in the Q4. We would expect year-over-year comparable hotel RevPAR percentage changes in the Q4 to be down, low single digits at the bottom end, to up low single digits at the top end, with the range driven primarily by the evolving nature of demand on Maui. We expect Q4 operational results to roughly follow 2019 quarterly seasonal trends, as provided on page 17 of our supplemental financial information, which, at the midpoint of our guidance, implies slightly positive Q4 RevPAR growth. At the midpoint, we would expect full year adjusted EBITDAre of $1.62 billion.

Please note that our Adjusted EBITDAre guidance includes $54 million of business interruption proceeds, which we received in the Q3, and an additional $26 million, which we expect to collect in the Q4, all of which is related to Hurricane Ian. Excluding the impacts of business interruption, our revised full year comparable hotel EBITDA midpoint only declined $8 million versus the Q2, despite a full year estimated impact of $25 million from Maui. It is important to remember that although business interruption proceeds are one-time in nature, we expect the Ritz-Carlton, Naples and Hyatt Regency Coconut Point to contribute a full year of EBITDA in 2024. As a reminder, comparable hotel EBITDA and comparable hotel EBITDA margin are not affected by operational results or business interruption proceeds related to these two resorts, as they are considered non-comparable at this time.

Shifting to margins, as we have discussed over the past few quarters, year-over-year, we expect comparable hotel EBITDA margins to be down 210 basis points at the low end of our guidance, to down 170 basis points at the high end due to stable staffing levels at our hotels, higher utility and insurance expenses, and lower attrition and cancellation fees. For these reasons, we do not believe 2022 represents a stabilized comparison for margins. Relative to 2019, which we believe is a more representative year for margin comparison, we expect margins this year to be up 20 basis points at the low end of our guidance to up 60 basis points at the high end. This margin expansion is despite impacts from Maui. Occupancy is still meaningfully below 2019 levels, moderating attrition and cancellation revenues and expense inflation.

Turning to our balance sheet and liquidity position, the $163 million loan to the buyer of the Sheraton Boston was repaid in full during the Q3. Our weighted average maturity is 4.5 years, at a weighted average interest rate of 4.6%. We have a balanced maturity schedule with our next maturity of $400 million coming due in April 2024. We ended the Q3 at 2.1x leverage, and we have $2.6 billion of total available liquidity, which includes $218 million of FF&E reserves and full availability of our $1.5 billion credit facility. In addition, we repurchased 6.3 million shares at an average price of $15.90 per share, bringing our total repurchases for the quarter to $100 million.

Year to date, we have repurchased 9.5 million shares at an average price of $15.82, bringing our total repurchases for the year to $150 million. We have approximately $823 million of remaining capacity under our repurchase program, and we will continue to be opportunistic when executing share repurchases. We paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.18 per share, an increase of $0.03 or 20% over our Q2 dividend. Though we expect to maintain our quarterly dividend at a sustainable level, taking into consideration potential macroeconomic factors, all future dividends are subject to approval by the company's board of directors. We remain optimistic on the future of our business and travel overall. We believe our portfolio, our balance sheet, and our team are well positioned to continue outperforming.

As we have shown, Host can do it all, and we will continue to be strategic in the current macroeconomic environment. With that, we would be happy to take your questions. To ensure we have time to address as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting our question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. And for participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we pull for questions. Thank you. Our first question is coming from Ari Klein with BMO. Your line is live.

Ari Klein (Director, Equity Research)

Thanks, and good morning. Maybe just on the group bookings pace, it's up 13% for next year. Curious what you're seeing from the end of quarter for the quarter bookings. And do you think that bookings pace for next year ultimately narrows as maybe bookings booking windows extend? And then if you could just touch on which markets look strongest and weakest for next year from a group standpoint.

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Sure, Ari. So we saw meaningful in the quarter for the quarter of bookings for the Q3. That trend seems to be pretty consistent. We actually picked up 85% more relative to 2019 in Q3 in the quarter for the quarter. When we looked at the 245,000 group room nights that Jim spoke to, that we picked up in Q3, for Q3 and Q4, about 46% of that was a pickup for Q3, and about 54% of that was about pickup for Q4. Going into next year, as the booking window extends, we do expect that to moderate somewhat just because there wouldn't be any capacity left, frankly, at the hotels.

So to put that into perspective, our end of quarter for the quarter booking window extended by about 10 days, which effectively was, it was 80 days before, and it's, like, 90 days now, and then all future arrivals, that extended by 15 days. So we're definitely seeing that that extend for the year as well as for future years. So you will see that moderation into next year.

As it relates to markets that we expect will do well for next year, we're certainly seeing a strength for our portfolio where it's meaningful is San Diego, Orlando, and D.C. Overall, citywide pace for 2024 is strong in Seattle, Boston, New Orleans, and Miami as well. What's interesting is right now, when you look at 2024, the citywide group, citywide room night pace is actually 90% of 2019 actual, which is up from 83%, which we saw at the end of Q2.

Ari Klein (Director, Equity Research)

Thanks. Appreciate the color.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Michael Bellisario with Baird. Your line is live.

Michael Bellisario (Managing Director)

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just on the Hyatt Capital program, for those six hotels, maybe just on average, but when were they all last renovated? What's the currenTRevPAR penetration index, and then do you expect to get the same 3-5 point lift, that you had, underwrote for the Marriott program? Thank you.

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, Mike, we'll be happy to gather that information specifically and share it with you. But suffice it to say that we and Hyatt both believe that these properties were in need of a transformational, comprehensive renovation. You know, we were going to undertake work at all six of these hotels, about two-thirds of the work that we agreed to with Hyatt, in return for the enhanced owner priorities and the $40 million guarantee to support disruption. So we see, you know, returns in the low teens, as we saw with the Marriott Transformational Capital Program, and that will be driven by the enhanced owner priority as well as yield index gains.

So I think that we have a very high degree of comfort, given the performance of the assets in the Marriott program. Just to refresh your recollection, that was 16 properties. They're not all stabilized yet, not due to where we are, but due to certain properties and certain competitive sets like New York in particular having been closed for a longer time than our property. But the assets that we have seen have delivered-

Jim Risoleo (President, CEO and Director)

... truly outsized Yield Index gains. We had underwritten 3-5 points, and we're meaningfully above that. So we're excited to be able to partner with Hyatt as their largest owner, and really looking forward to getting on with this program, which we will complete over the next 3-4 years.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Bill Crow with Raymond James. Your line is live.

Bill Crow (Managing Director)

Thanks. Good morning, Jim, Sourav. Point of clarification, Sourav: is it fair to say you still have about $40 million in potential BI recoveries that could occur next year? Right, $250 million through the Q3, plus some in the fourth, and, and then the gap to $310 million, is that the right way to think about it?

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, we still plan to get to the $310 million. We're working with our insurers right now. There will be an allocation between BI and property. So far, what the letter we have got from our insurers is that they are okay with the $80 million of BI. That's why we have $26 million of BI in our forecast. We are still working with the insurers to collect on the balance. Don't know what that number exactly is gonna be. It won't be all of the remaining to get to the $310 million, but certainly more than the $80 million. So we do expect some BI next year. That amount, we are still working with our insurers as to what that is going to be.

Bill Crow (Managing Director)

All right, thanks. Then my question really is, I hear you on the comparison on the margins versus 2019 instead of 2022. In a few months, we're gonna be talking about 2024 versus 2023, and I'm thinking, you know, the question I've been asking a number of the REITs is, what sort of top-line growth, and we'll make our own decision about what that is. But how much do you need before you could get flat EBITDA margins next year? Is that a 4% number?

Jim Risoleo (President, CEO and Director)

Bill, that's a question that's really difficult to answer, given where we are with respect to the budgeting process. What I can share with you at this time is, we would anticipate wage growth next year in the 4%-5% range. You know, where insurance costs are gonna come in, they're certainly baked through next June, because as the renewal was, is year to year, and it renews June 1 of every year, or July 1 of every year, I guess, through June 30. So, you know, question mark will be what, what happens at, at insurance renewal, and, you know, there are a lot of variables that can impact that.

You know, as we get granular on each hotel budget, we will look for opportunities to continue to enhance improvements in productivity and utilize technology as we have been doing. So we will do everything possible to command and control expenses going forward. But I do think it's important that we kind of level set the stage as to what is our true base of EBITDA going into next year. And I would like to just share a couple numbers with you because I don't want people to think that, you know, the $80 million of business interruption that we received this year is a one-time event.It's really not a one-time event, from the perspective that the Ritz-Carlton Naples and the Hyatt Regency Coconut Point are gonna be back online full-time next year. So...

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, just to expand on that, Bill, I think the way to think about it, first, to level set the base. So before we even get into the growth of EBITDA for next year, when you think about the midpoint of our guidance at $1,620 right now, that already has a $30 million negative impact from Maui, which is made up of $25 million from the hotels and then $5 million from the timeshare. So let's assume for a second that we still have about a similar impact into next year as Maui recovers. And then you think about that $80 million of BI proceeds for this year, which Jim mentioned, that effectively, majority of that we would have received as EBITDA from the Ritz-Carlton Naples and the Hyatt Coconut Point if it was not for Hurricane Ian.

So that is EBITDA we would be receiving for next year. So in, in other words, if you think about it, the base before any growth is starting off at $1.6 billion+, if that makes sense. And then, of course, as Jim mentioned, in terms of expenses and everything else, we are working through, and we have many initiatives that we are working on. So while there will be inflationary expense pressures, we fully anticipate to mitigate those pressures with productivity enhancements and various initiatives that we have going on at the hotels. And we will provide you with next year guidance, as we typically do in February, at the February call.

Bill Crow (Managing Director)

Great. Thank you, guys.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI. Your line is live.

Duane Pfennigwerth (Senior Managing Director, Equity Research)

Hey, thanks. Good morning. I thought that was a good question by Bill and response by you. So, I'll just ask another Hawaii question. Maybe could you just play back the recovery, why things were a little bit better than you anticipated in the Q3? And then maybe just since the delta on the Q4 guidance is really about Hawaii, it sounds like, what would get you to the high end, what would get you to the low end in terms of what needs to happen?

Jim Risoleo (President, CEO and Director)

Sure, Duane. You know, let me start by saying that the, were it not for Maui, I think our guidance range for the full year would have been tighter than it is. But we have a wide range at this point in time because of some of the uncertainties surrounding how Hawaii is, how Maui is going to recover. You know, the west side of Maui, Kaanapali, just reopened to tourists on November first, yesterday. So, it's gonna take some time to see the cadence of how people are going to come back to the west side. And I do believe it'll take some time as well for people to get comfortable rebooking their stays down in the Wailea area where our other two resorts are.

We did see a lot of cancellations in the Q4 due to some pronouncements that were made by the governor, and we fully support the reconstruction and relief efforts, because what happened on Maui is just a terrible, horrible disaster. And we fully support the fact that you got to take care of the people first, and that's what's happened. So the reason that our performance in the Q3 was better than we initially anticipated is the result of recovery first responders taking rooms at our property, as well as providing housing that was subsidized by FEMA for displaced residents. And you know, that really caused a material pickup, a pickup better than we anticipated.

You did see a decline in TRevPAR in the quarter by an amount that was directly attributable to what happened on Maui. I think the out-of-room spend, the TRevPAR spend, was impacted by 120 basis points. So we're optimistic for the long-term future of Maui. It's a, it's a great place and great place to be, and you know, we will do what we can to support the recovery.

Duane Pfennigwerth (Senior Managing Director, Equity Research)

Thanks, Jim. Maybe just to put a finer point on it, the delta in the Q4, the range, is that a function of the duration of first responder and housing, or the rate of just sort of organic leisure recovery?

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, it's a little difficult to look at November and December. It really is a disaster recovery business and how that will taper off as the west side of the island opens up, which actually opened up as of yesterday, November 1. So it's, you know, we're trying to gauge, the properties are trying to gauge what that demand pickup looks like and how they will replace sort of the regular business with the demand recovery business. So that's what's driving the delta. What I will say is, if it was not for that, the Maui impact, you know, we put out October numbers at 2.4%. Our Q4 numbers would have been slightly higher than the 2.4% if it wasn't for the Maui impact.

Duane Pfennigwerth (Senior Managing Director, Equity Research)

Yeah.

Jim Risoleo (President, CEO and Director)

Point of fact, just to kind of wrap this up, Duane. Our anticipated impact on comparable hotel RevPAR and comparable hotel EBITDA from Maui is 50 basis points off the top line and $25 million for the full year at the bottom line. So in essence, had Maui not occurred, we would have been talking about a guidance raise on this call, because we were able to keep the midpoint at 8%. We would have been talking about an 8.5% guide for this year.

Duane Pfennigwerth (Senior Managing Director, Equity Research)

Understood. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Jay Kornreich with Wedbush. Your line is live.

Jay Kornreich (VP, REIT Equity Research)

Hey, good morning. You know, you made some comments on the urban and business transient demand profile accelerating in September, getting back to 70%, 17% gap to 2019. So I'm wondering if you can just provide some more color on how much you think that gap can narrow in 2024. And maybe within that, you know, some of your peers have been diminishing their exposure to San Francisco. Maybe if you could provide some color on how you see your assets in that market trending over the next year or two.

Jim Risoleo (President, CEO and Director)

Sure. I'll take the San Francisco piece of it, Jay, and then, you know, Sourav can talk a bit about business transients. You know, San Francisco, we think for the long term, is a great place to be, particularly given the assets that we own, which we believe are the best located in the market and in excellent physical condition. San Francisco Marriott Marquis has been for quite some time now building a solid base of in-house group business. It's in terrific condition. It was the first asset that we completed as part of the Marriott Transformational Capital Program, completed in 2019. And you know, the results are paying off relative to the competitive set.

It is outpacing, I think, everyone in the set today. The Grand Hyatt on Union Square, also in great physical condition and a great location. So, you know, we are seeing a return of business travel in San Francisco in particular. In September, San Francisco, and it's one of our top business travel markets, we're down just about 10% in total room nights relative to where we were in 2019. So it's slow and steady, and, I think, you know, 2024 will be a challenge year for San Francisco from a citywide perspective. But, as we get beyond 2024, we're optimistic about how the market is going to evolve.

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, and I'll add on the San Francisco piece, our, which is encouraging, is our lead volume at the San Francisco Marriott Marquis is actually up five and a half percent to last year. And, you know, our group rates, our room nights there was up almost eight and a half percent year-over-year as well. So, and in November is, I believe, when APEC, that Asia Pacific Economic Conference is, and that should be really good for San Fran as well. Obviously, 2024, as Jim mentioned, the citywides are weak, but that's why we are really making a concerted effort to get quality in-house group at that hotel. As it relates to your question on BT, it's been a very, very slow recovery from a room night perspective.

Obviously, we had the strength of the special corporate rates this year, almost double digits, but the room night recovery is across the board for the portfolio, still down around 20%, call it. That said, the major markets, as we spoke about in our prepared remarks, San Francisco, New York, Denver, is down only 10% to 19%, which is pretty impressive. In terms of 2024, we expect more of the same in terms of BT. We expect certain markets to continue to recover, but just at a very slow pace.

The reality is BT will come back in a meaningful way when there is more macroeconomic certainty and there is true economic growth. We believe there's a pretty close relation with non-residential fixed investment growth and RevPAR. Once that comes back in a meaningful way and GDP growth comes back in a meaningful way, we expect that gap to reduce.

Jay Kornreich (VP, REIT Equity Research)

All right. All really helpful. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Smedes Rose with Citi. Your line is live.

Smedes Rose (Director)

Hi, thanks. I just wanted to ask you, you mentioned 2.6 million group room nights on the books for next year. So how does that compare to where you would sort of normally be in terms of group bookings for the full calendar year when you're in, you know, this late in the year?

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, when we compare that to 2019, we are about 10% down relative to 2019.

Smedes Rose (Director)

Okay. Okay, so catching up. And then can you just-

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Yes, catching up.

Smedes Rose (Director)

You mentioned the Sheraton Boston. You mentioned the seller finance. That loan was repaid in full. Any update on the Sheraton Times Square loan?

Jim Risoleo (President, CEO and Director)

Yeah. That loan was due to be paid off on October 18. We worked with the borrower and entered into a forbearance agreement and extension to November 9, next, November 8, next Wednesday. As part of that agreement, the interest rate was restated to 13%, and there was an upfront fee paid that brought the effective rate all in to 15%. So they are in the final stages of completing the documentation necessary to have the loan paid off by next Wednesday.

Smedes Rose (Director)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Dori Kesten with Wells Fargo. Your line is live.

Dori Kesten (Equity Analyst)

Thanks. Morning. Based on what you're seeing, marketed for sale today and then the shadow pipeline of deals you hear about, would you expect to be a net buyer next year?

Jim Risoleo (President, CEO and Director)

Dori, I sure hope so. I really do. I mean, clearly, our balance sheet is a differentiating factor for Host. As we've said, we have the ability to allocate capital across many fronts, as you saw us do in the Q3, in sitting here at 2.1x leverage, and the ability to do deals all cash, and get them done quickly, is something that I don't think there's anyone else in this market can do today. What we're seeing today, though, is still a fairly significant bid-ask spread in the marketplace. There just isn't a lot of quality product in the pipeline.

We are talking to a lot of people, a lot of hotel owners, and, you know, we'll just have to wait and see how pricing trends as we get into 2024. But we clearly have the capability to not only continue to buy back stock, which we believe is very undervalued relative to our assets and the quality of our EBITDA, and invest in our assets and pay a sustainable dividend and also be acquisitive. So let's keep our fingers crossed that we have an opportunity next year to do that.

Dori Kesten (Equity Analyst)

Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Meredith Jensen with HSBC. Your line is live.

Meredith Jensen (US Consumer Equity Research)

Yes, thank you. I have two quick questions. First, looking at TRevPAR or comparable TRevPAR, if you could speak a little bit about what you're seeing on out-of-room spend and how we might think about that in the nearer and longer term? And then secondly, I recall, a couple months ago, maybe at the analyst meeting, you spoke about some strategic moves you might make over time, working with managers to identify some of the brand standards that might be modified, as you, you know, sort of collect some sample sets to drill down on those. And, given where cost pressures are, I was curious if there's anything meaningful there we could think about. Thanks very much.

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

Sure. On the food and beverage front, banquet and catering contribution, which is effectively banquet and catering and AV revenue on a per group room night basis, still remains pretty strong. I mean, last quarter, we just had a lot of pent-up group demand from groups that are canceled during COVID. So, it's very difficult to compare the Q3 results to Q2 results of this year when it comes to food and beverage, just because the excess amount of group that we had. So even in our internal forecast, without the impact of Maui, we were actually expecting food and beverage revenues to be down. That said, that really has moderated in terms of food and beverage revenue.

There, we are still getting meaningful amount of, banquet and catering contribution, and, outlet revenues on a per occupied room are, are significantly higher than they were back in 2019. The piece that is certainly going to moderate as we get into next year is attrition and cancellation revenue, right? That had—you saw, had an impact, in the Q3, Q3, with A&C revenue being down, literally about half of what it was last year. So that, in putting into perspective, in 2022, we received close to $100 million of, attrition cancellation revenue. We think that's going to moderate somewhere around the $50 million-$55 million range. That's just one thing to keep, lookout on. And sorry, Meredith, your second question was?

Meredith Jensen (US Consumer Equity Research)

Just sort of, it was a sort of strategic question on working with managers on brand standards. Is there any modifications that could be made over time on, you know, looking post-COVID?

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

We are constantly working with our managers to evaluate brand standards that are relevant. Frankly, I would say Marriott and Hyatt both made meaningful changes to the brand standards post-pandemic. Really figuring out which ones we should modify, which ones to eliminate, the ones which truly drive value to the guest. It's always a continuing conversation, and we believe as technologies evolve and we can leverage technologies which not only help from a productivity standpoint, but also enhance customer experience, we will keep on doing proof of concepts and piloting those technologies to drive incremental value to the bottom line.

Meredith Jensen (US Consumer Equity Research)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Tyler Batory with Oppenheimer. Your line is live.

Tyler Batory (Executive Director)

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. A few questions on the leisure and the resort commentary. Are you seeing any divergence within your portfolio between some of the higher-rated resort properties and those that are a little bit lower or at a different price point? And then when you look at the holidays, talk about your book position. I know it's still a little early there, but curious kind of what you're seeing in terms of demand, Thanksgiving and Christmas. And then, you know, the third part of this question, you know, you talked about transient resort rates still 56% above 2019. You know, what sort of guidepost or what sort of expectations do you have for those rates, you know, Q4 and kind of going forward?

Certainly, commentary and the expectation is that that number should slow. But just trying to get a sense of, you know, best guess, perhaps, you know, how much, or how, where growth could end up going, in the next couple of quarters here.

Jim Risoleo (President, CEO and Director)

Sure. Let me start with the last question that you asked with respect to leisure transient rates. We're very happy that in the Q3, our leisure transient rates were 56% above where they were in the Q3 of 2019. For reference, that's down about five percentage points from where we were in the Q2. In the Q2, we were 61% ahead.

And, you know, the fact that the 56% number takes into account the three comparable resorts on Maui to the negative, and it excludes our Ritz-Carlton Naples and our Hyatt Regency Coconut Point does give us a substantial level of comfort that our properties are going to continue to be able to charge a rate that customers are willing to pay, just given the nature of the assets that we own. So we're not really seeing a divergence across the 16 resorts we have. They're all very high-quality properties. And we're optimistic that as we get into the Q4 and as we get into next year, we'll continue to be able to drive strong performance at all of these assets.

I think the Ritz-Carlton, Naples, what we're seeing with respect to booking pace across every room category at that property is very, very impressive, and we're very optimistic that we're going to be able to outperform our underwriting expectations on the expansion of the Vanderbilt Tower. I think we underwrote a 12% cash-on-cash return on that investment, and we're gonna do much better going forward. So we are not seeing any signs of weakness as we move into the holiday season. You know, I would just caveat that by saying, but for the unknowns surrounding what's gonna happen in Maui this year.

Sourav Ghosh (EVP and CFO)

On the question of holidays and how things are pacing, when you have to keep in mind, Q4 holidays somewhat present a tough comp to last year, because last year was the first time the country was really open for broader travel during the holiday season. But that said, specifically for, like, Christmas time, right now, and this is much more directional, what we have a revenue on the books, less Maui is effectively flat, which we think is very encouraging. And for Thanksgiving, it's slightly off, but you have to remember, it's that timing was a tough timing when you compare to last year. So we were off, less Maui, down about 6-7% in pace. But Christmas is effectively flat right now, pacing flat in terms of revenue.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Anthony Powell with Barclays. Your line is live.

Anthony Powell (Director, Equity Research)

Hi, good morning. Yes, a question on one of your newer markets to Austin, Texas. RevPAR's been down there the past few quarters. Is that all technology, business travel being down? And just more broadly, I think there's a convention center renovation there starting next year. Will that be disruptive, and how's your experience been in that market relative to kind of the more traditional coastal business urban markets?

Jim Risoleo (President, CEO and Director)

Anthony, I think that, you know, Austin, we have two properties. In Austin, we have the Hotel Van Zandt, and we have the Hyatt Regency Austin. Just to remind you, the Hyatt Regency was the first asset that we purchased during the pandemic. I think it was the first hotel deal that was done during the pandemic, and that asset is doing actually quite well. Van Zandt is, and it's doing quite well, given the fact that we're able to take in-house group, given the meeting space platform there, as well as its location across the lake.

Van Zandt is more of a leisure-driven property, and I don't know if you've been to Austin recently, but there is an incredible amount of construction around the Van Zandt in that particular submarket, the Rainey Street District, and that has really impacted business at that property. So for the long term, I think it's gonna be great going forward because it's a myriad of new development occurring there, you know, residential as well as office. But in the short term, it's going to be challenging until we get the cranes out of there and the streets open up to business again. So... And tech has had a bit of an impact as well in the near term on that asset. So you're absolutely right.

With respect to, you know, plans for the convention center, Host as well as other hotel owners who have a presence in Austin, have been meeting with the appropriate officials in Austin to talk about whether or not, you know, they're going to go forward with a closure of the convention center or a staged renovation and expansion, and also talking about ways that we can mitigate any impact that actions taken with the convention center will have on business in the Austin market. So we're being proactive and doing everything that we can to mitigate any potential issues surrounding the convention center going forward.

Anthony Powell (Director, Equity Research)

Okay, thank you for that.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our final question today will be coming from Chris Woronka with Deutsche Bank. Your line is live.

Chris Woronka (Senior Analyst, Hotel and Lodging REITs and Leisure)

Hey, good morning, guys.

Jim Risoleo (President, CEO and Director)

Morning, Chris.

Chris Woronka (Senior Analyst, Hotel and Lodging REITs and Leisure)

Morning, thanks for taking the question. So talking about acquisitions, Jim, you know, I know you mentioned that, you know, there's a big pipeline out there. We know, we think there's gonna be stuff that might come available next year that's related to debt refinancing. As you guys look at the potential pipeline, a lot of the acquisitions you've done in the last couple of years have been one-off assets, bigger EBITDA assets. What's your willingness to do either, you know, a portfolio type of deal or something where there's, you know, a lot of CapEx involved upfront? Are you willing to do different kind of deals than kind of what you've done in the last few years?

Jim Risoleo (President, CEO and Director)

You know, Chris, the short answer is, it really is transaction dependent, and, you know, if we see a portfolio that we believe is, you know, accretive to shareholder value, and, you know, if assets need to be repositioned and they, you know, they have CapEx needs and we can see our way clear to, you know, performance in the near term, we would do that. I mean, I think a great example of an asset that has performed extremely well for us, that needed to be repositioned, is The Phoenician.

We bought that asset in 2015, and completely reimagined the property and invested, I think $120 million, to reposition it, including, you know, new amenities and a spa, new fitness center, new lobby bar, and complete renovation of all the guest rooms, and the asset is doing exceptionally well. So if I could find another Venetian, that is something that we would certainly be interested and excited about doing. With respect to, you know, portfolio deals, we look at everything that's out there, and we look at it with an open mind. And if there is a transaction that we believe is accretive, we would certainly take it down.

Chris Woronka (Senior Analyst, Hotel and Lodging REITs and Leisure)

Okay. Thanks, Jim.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question and answer session, so I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Risoleo for his closing remarks.

Jim Risoleo (President, CEO and Director)

I'd like to thank everyone for joining us on our Q3 call today. We appreciate the opportunity, as always, to discuss our quarterly results with you, and we look forward to seeing many of you in person, at NAREIT and other conferences in the coming weeks. Have a great day. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.