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    HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS (HTZ)

    HTZ Q1 2025: $1.2B Liquidity, Depreciation Per Unit Falls Below $300

    Reported on May 14, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$5.77Last close (May 13, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$5.71Open (May 14, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.06(-1.04%)
    • Fleet Optimization and Depreciation Improvement: The management highlighted that the new model year '25 fleet is already delivering DPU at sub-300 levels—with expectations to maintain and even improve these figures in Q2—thanks to disciplined fleet rotation and rising residual values.
    • Enhanced Revenue and Cost Management: The executives emphasized the transformational impact of advanced revenue management systems and operational initiatives that not only aim to optimize pricing (improving RPD) but also drive better utilization and cost discipline, setting the stage for margin expansion.
    • Robust Liquidity and Financial Flexibility: With a strong liquidity position of $1.2 billion, extended credit facility maturities, and planned ATM equity offerings, the company is well positioned to navigate near-term uncertainties and fund its ongoing transformation.
    • Local over-fleeting risk: Although macro fleet levels were maintained, executives acknowledged instances of temporary “overfleeting” at the local market level due to accelerated early vehicle deliveries to avoid tariff exposure. This excess supply in certain cities can pressure pricing and utilization, adversely affecting margins .
    • Residual value and depreciation uncertainty: The benefits from a lower depreciation per unit (with targets below $300) depend on favorable residual values. However, uncertainty remains around the tariff environment and the supply dynamics for future model years (e.g., model year '26), which could erode these gains and impact economic benefits ** **.
    • Revenue and pricing pressures: Q&A participants highlighted pricing softness, particularly in segments such as corporate and government travel. Reduced fleet capacity and a strategic shift away from lower-end business segments have contributed to revenue declines and margin challenges, raising concerns about the sustainability of improvements in revenue per day ** **.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    EBITDA

    Q1 2025

    Negative EBITDA

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    EBITDA

    Q2 2025

    breakeven

    approximately breakeven

    no change

    EBITDA

    Q3 2025

    no prior guidance

    sizable profit

    no prior guidance

    EBITDA

    Q4 2025

    small profit

    positive

    no change

    Depreciation Per Unit (DPU)

    Q1 2025

    “Slightly inflated” in Q1 2025

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Depreciation Per Unit (DPU)

    FY 2025

    Targeting sub‑$300 net DPU by end of FY 2025

    Expected to be below $300 starting in Q2 2025

    no change

    Revenue Per Unit (RPU)

    FY 2025

    Progressing toward a target of $1,500 RPU

    Targeting above $1,500

    raised

    Direct Operating Expense (DOE) Per Day

    FY 2025

    Aiming for DOE in the low 30s per transaction day

    Targeting low $30s

    no change

    EBITDA Margin

    FY 2025

    Low single-digit adjusted EBITDA margin

    Low single digits

    no change

    Cash Flow

    FY 2025

    Anticipating cash burn in H1 FY 2025—with the low point in Q2

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Fleet Rotation

    FY 2024

    60% of cars being less than 1 year old at end of FY 2024

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    2026 EBITDA Target

    2026

    no prior guidance

    Expected to exceed $1 billion

    no prior guidance

    2027 Scale and Efficiencies

    2027

    no prior guidance

    Achieving North Star metrics by 2027

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Fleet Optimization, Rotation & Utilization (DPU Improvement)

    Q2 2024, Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 calls focused on an aggressive, end-to-end fleet rotation strategy that aimed to lower DPU – with targets sometimes hinted around sub‑$300 and improvements turning fleet rotation from a headwind into a tailwind ( ).

    Q1 2025 emphasized a disciplined “buy right, hold right, and sell right” approach with over 70% of the U.S. RAC fleet now 12 months old or newer, a Q1 DPU of $353 per month and expectations to dip below $300 by Q2, signaling accelerated improvements ( ).

    Consistent focus on fleet rotation with further acceleration and earlier-than-anticipated DPU improvements, shifting sentiment from cautious to more positive as operational metrics improve.

    Revenue Management & Pricing Strategies

    In Q2–Q4 2024, Hertz detailed a transformation of revenue management through dynamic pricing, optimizing value-added services and channel mix, with incremental RPD gains and a focus on exiting low-yielding segments ( ).

    Q1 2025 discussions highlighted a transformation journey via partnerships (Amadeus, Cox Automotive) and adjustments in fleet mix affecting pricing; temporary challenges (e.g. a 5% drop in pricing) are deemed isolated, with the long‑term target of higher margins maintained ( ).

    Ongoing transformation that builds on prior innovations – while temporary pricing headwinds persist, strategic shifts and technology partnerships continue to strengthen revenue management and pave the way for durable margin improvements.

    Liquidity & Capital Market Actions

    Q2–Q4 2024 earnings calls consistently reported strong liquidity positions (ranging from $1.6B to $1.8B), active capital raises (e.g. $500M in Q4, $1B raised in June Q2), refinancing actions including ABS programs, and preparatory steps for addressing upcoming maturities ( ).

    In Q1 2025, liquidity stood at $1.2B with expectations to exceed $1B in Q2 despite litigation costs; additionally, a revolving credit facility amendment extended maturities and an ATM equity offering was authorized, underscoring robust capital flexibility ( ).

    Stable liquidity with ongoing capital market activity – slight adjustments in facility terms and proactive steps (ATM offering) indicate a continued focus on financial flexibility amid operational changes.

    Operational Efficiency & Cost Management

    Q2–Q4 2024 calls stressed improving efficiency through process engineering, leveraging technology (Palantir, process improvements), targeted cost reductions (DOE in the low 30s), and structural cost cuts in SG&A and maintenance, albeit facing headwinds such as insurance and lease expense adjustments ( ).

    Q1 2025 emphasized progress in operational efficiency via advanced technology integration (e.g. Palantir, UVI, Decagon) and notable DOE improvements (a 4% quarterly decline and gradual SG&A improvement), alongside significant DPU reduction achievements ( ).

    Consistent cost management efforts that build on earlier process improvements – continued use of technology and disciplined fleet management are yielding incremental cost reductions and enhanced efficiency, moving towards long‑term DOE targets.

    Residual Value & Depreciation Uncertainty

    Previous periods (Q2–Q4 2024) discussed declining residual values, asset impairments (notably a noncash asset impairment in Q3 around $1B), and a clear strategy for achieving sub‑$300 DPU despite short‑term volatility and depreciation “noise” from fleet rotation ( ).

    Q1 2025 highlighted improved residual dynamics where every 1% increase in residual value drives significant economic benefits; the DPU was $353 and expected to be under $300 soon, signaling that the curated younger fleet and proactive management are starting to pay off ( ).

    Gradual improvement and stabilization – while previous calls noted volatility and impairment noise, Q1 2025 conveys a more optimistic outlook with enhanced residual values and earlier DPU improvements, reflecting the success of fleet strategy adjustments.

    Tariff Exposure & Regulatory Risks

    In Q4 2024, Hertz described its fleet strategy as largely insulating the company from tariff effects and noted that a diversified supply chain helped mitigate risks; prior Q3 and Q2 calls did not emphasize regulatory risks ( ).

    Q1 2025 elaborated on proactive measures such as accelerating deliveries for model year 2025 to avoid tariffs, with two‑thirds of the fleet delivered pre‑tariff, though caution remains for future model years, underlining a more proactive stance amid tariff uncertainty ( ).

    Increased focus in Q1 2025 on preemptively managing tariff risks – while earlier periods mentioned the benefits of fleet strategy, the current discussion is more detailed and forward‑looking regarding potential regulatory and tariff impacts.

    Local Market Dynamics (Over‑fleeting Risk)

    Q4 2024 discussions emphasized aligning fleet size with demand (e.g. a 7% reduction) and using “sweating assets” strategies; Q3 did not specifically mention over‑fleeting while Q2 noted market‑level allocation adjustments ( ).

    Q1 2025 acknowledged temporary over‑fleeting in certain local markets due to early vehicle deliveries, though corrective actions have been taken; despite local excesses, rising residuals helped offset pricing impacts ( ).

    Greater granularity with an added focus in Q1 2025 – while earlier periods considered fleet alignment broadly, current period highlights local over‑fleeting challenges and proactive measures to address them, indicating a more nuanced approach to market dynamics.

    Digital Transformation & Customer Experience

    Q2–Q4 2024 calls highlighted digital initiatives such as improvements in the digital car sales experience, dynamic pricing, increased loyalty enrollments, and partnerships leveraging data and AI for enhanced customer service and operational efficiency ( ).

    Q1 2025 placed strong emphasis on digital transformation with new technology partnerships (Palantir, UVI, Amadeus, Decagon) leading to improved NPS (an 11‐point year-over-year increase) and a focus on frictionless, self‑service experiences, reinforcing a customer-centric transformation ( ).

    Continued and expanding investment in digital and customer experience platforms – while the strategy was present in earlier periods, Q1 2025 shows enhanced integration of technology across multiple functions, signaling deeper commitment to improving customer satisfaction and efficiency.

    Market Forecasting, Guidance & Vehicle Sales Challenges

    Q2–Q4 2024 discussions offered directional guidance for 2025, outlined long‑term targets (e.g. DPU, DOE, RPD) and addressed vehicle sales challenges—including losses on Q4 vehicle sales due to seasonal softness and reliance on wholesale channels—while noting fleet rotation and residual value headwinds ( ).

    Q1 2025 covered macroeconomic uncertainties with guidance on long‑term North Star metrics for 2027, detailed temporary local over‑fleeting challenges, and underscored record retail car sales and robust residual tailwinds as key counterbalances to vehicle sales challenges ( ).

    Consistent long‑term focus with evolving nuance – previous periods laid the groundwork for targets and challenges, whereas Q1 2025 demonstrates a confident strategy backed by strong retail performance and proactive measures to mitigate temporary local and macro challenges.

    Insurance Costs & Accounting Adjustments

    Q2–Q4 2024 calls consistently mentioned higher-than-expected insurance costs, increases in insurance reserves, and adjustments in lease and depreciation accounting (notably following impairments), impacting DOE and SG&A while setting the stage for subsequent cost normalization ( ).

    Q1 2025 noted that persistent insurance cost headwinds were partly offset by year-over-year DOE improvements and adjusted SG&A metrics (excluding one‑time stock-based compensation impacts), indicating positive cost management amid ongoing challenges ( ).

    Persistent challenges continue – while insurance headwinds remain across periods, incremental accounting adjustments and cost management initiatives have led to modest improvements in Q1 2025, suggesting a careful stabilization of these cost factors over time.

    1. Profitability Impact
      Q: Does a smaller fleet harm EBITDA margins?
      A: Management believes that despite a reduced fleet, improved utilization and operational efficiency will help achieve margins toward a $1B EBITDA target by 2027.

    2. DOE Target
      Q: Can DOE reach low-30s with a smaller fleet?
      A: The team is working on both fixed and variable cost savings to drive DOE toward the low 30s even with a leaner fleet.

    3. DOE Timeline
      Q: When will DOE targets be achieved?
      A: Guidance points to around 2027 as the period when scale and efficiencies come together to hit the DOE targets.

    4. Liquidity Guidance
      Q: Is Q2 liquidity inclusive of financing proceeds?
      A: Liquidity is expected to finish Q2 above $1B, net of financing adjustments and excluding ATM proceeds.

    5. DPU Target
      Q: Could DPU drop further below 300?
      A: Management noted that current model year ‘25 rotations are already achieving sub-300 DPU, with further improvements uncertain amid tariff volatility.

    6. Depreciation Gains Recognition
      Q: How are depreciation gains recognized?
      A: Gains are taken when vehicles are sold, with adjustments occurring as market conditions change.

    7. Depreciation Reflection Timing
      Q: When are residual gains reflected in depreciation?
      A: Benefits from improved residual values are realized upon vehicle disposal, though recognition lags market movements.

    8. Tariff Impact
      Q: What share of vehicles is tariff-exposed?
      A: Nearly all model year ‘25 vehicles are procured at negotiated pricing, effectively avoiding tariff exposure.

    9. Fleet & Residuals
      Q: Are you over-fleeted and what about residuals?
      A: Macro-level fleet is tight, though local market oversupply exists; residuals are rising in both retail and wholesale channels.

    10. Fleet Deliveries
      Q: What is the update on fleet deliveries?
      A: Deliveries continue steadily, with model year ‘25 vehicles delivered in mid- to high single digits in Q2.

    11. Fleet Strategy Mix
      Q: Is the fleet mix shifting for better RPD?
      A: The strategy focuses on high-margin segments, emphasizing off-airport mobility while trimming low-margin business.

    12. Regional & Seasonality
      Q: Any significant geographic or seasonal demand trends?
      A: Demand patterns vary by customer segment, with a seasonal uptick expected as summer approaches despite some weekday dips.

    13. Cost vs Customer Experience
      Q: Does cost cutting risk diminishing customer service?
      A: Management strikes a balance, using technology investments to drive cost efficiency without sacrificing customer experience.

    14. RPD Outlook
      Q: What’s the outlook for RPD improvement?
      A: RPD is expected to stabilize and gradually improve as the summer season normalizes demand.

    15. Rate Environment
      Q: Are markdown pressures driven by channel mix?
      A: Recent pricing softness is largely temporary, influenced by post-tariff effects and shifts in market mix.

    16. Revenue System
      Q: How will the new system boost margins?
      A: Although details remain undisclosed, the upgraded revenue management system is expected to incrementally enhance margins over time.

    17. DOE Tariff Impact
      Q: How do tariffs affect DOE outside of fleet?
      A: Tariff exposure is mostly on parts and maintenance; benefits from a newer fleet and operational discipline help mitigate these pressures.

    18. Inbound Segment
      Q: What percentage of leisure is inbound travel?
      A: Inbound travel represents a single-digit share of the U.S. leisure business, reflecting a relatively small component.

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