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    Howmet Aerospace (HWM)

    HWM Q2 2025: F-35 Spares Exceed Production, Boost Revenue Outlook

    Reported on Jul 31, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$192.14Last close (Jul 30, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$187.78Open (Jul 31, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-4.36(-2.27%)
    • Expanding Spares & Defense Business: The company is benefiting from strong demand in its spares business, particularly from the F‑35 program where spares orders now outperform original equipment production, which could fuel higher revenue as the fleet expands from 1,100 to around 2,000 aircraft.
    • Strategic Capacity Additions: New manufacturing plants and facility extensions in engine segments and IGT are set to boost saleable outputs beginning in Q4 2025 and further ramping into 2026–2027, supporting future revenue growth and market share gains.
    • Robust Cost Management & Margin Stability: Despite inflationary pressures and transient tariff drag impacts, the company has maintained healthy margins across segments and improved productivity through both automation and strategic headcount management, bolstering long-term profitability.
    • Uncertainty in the Commercial Truck Segment: There is ambiguity around future volumes due to evolving U.S. emissions regulations, making it difficult for management to predict orders for this critical segment.
    • Near-term Margin Pressure from Capacity Expansion: Significant CapEx investments and rapid headcount increases for new engine plants may lead to operational inefficiencies and dilution of margins during the ramp-up and training phases.
    • Tariff Drag Impacting Sequential Margins: Although current tariff drag is relatively small (around $5 million), its timing and lingering effects could continue to put pressure on margins in the near term.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue ($USD)

    Q3 2025

    no prior guidance

    $2,030,000,000 ± $10,000,000

    no prior guidance

    EBITDA ($USD)

    Q3 2025

    no prior guidance

    $580,000,000 ± $5,000,000

    no prior guidance

    EPS ($USD)

    Q3 2025

    no prior guidance

    $0.90 ± $0.01

    no prior guidance

    Revenue ($USD Billions)

    FY 2025

    $8.03 ± $0.15

    $8,130,000,000 ± $50,000,000

    raised

    EBITDA ($USD Millions)

    FY 2025

    $2,250 ± $25

    $2,320,000,000 ± $20,000,000

    raised

    EPS ($USD)

    FY 2025

    $3.40 ± $0.04

    $3.60 ± $0.04

    raised

    Free Cash Flow ($USD Billions)

    FY 2025

    $1.15 ± $0.05

    $1,225,000,000 ± $50,000,000

    raised

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Spares & Aftermarket Growth

    Earlier quarters detailed strong spares growth with Q1 2025 calls noting a 33% year‐over‐year increase and spares contributing 20% of revenue , Q4 2024 calling out 25% growth to $1.28B and rising revenue share from 11% to 17% , and Q3 2024 emphasizing an increase from 11% to 17% with expectations toward 20%

    Q2 2025 reported accelerated spares growth across commercial, defense and IGT segments with 40% YoY growth and highlighted the F‑35 spares expansion as a key driver

    Acceleration and further emphasis on spares growth – The shift is increasingly pronounced with spares now overtaking OE in value contribution and benefiting from fleet expansions.

    Margin Management & Cost Efficiency

    Q1 2025 highlighted margin improvements (fastening, structures, wheels) , Q4 2024 showcased sequential and full‐year margin upticks across segments with noted cost flexing , and Q3 2024 reported record margins and productivity gains across engine and fastening segments

    In Q2 2025, margin performance continued to improve with record EBITDA margins reported in key segments along with effective cost flexing and headcount management

    Sustained improvement despite headcount and investment costs – Operational flexibility and cost discipline are maintained, even as investments in capacity and new hires temporarily press margins.

    Production Capacity Expansion & Supply Chain Challenges

    Q1 2025 emphasized investments in new facilities in Japan and Europe with headcount ramp-ups , Q4 2024 focused on adding new plants and infrastructure build‑outs , and Q3 2024 discussed increased engine capacity and addressing aircraft supply constraints

    Q2 2025 noted significant capacity expansion plans with new engine plants in Michigan and Japan, along with supply chain challenges such as destocking in aerospace and rising fastener orders

    Continued expansion amid supply chain adjustments – The company remains focused on increasing capacity while managing inventory and sourcing challenges.

    Tariff & Trade Uncertainty

    Q1 2025 described a rapidly evolving tariff environment with mitigation measures , Q4 2024 expressed confidence in passing costs to customers , while Q3 2024 had no discussion on tariffs

    Q2 2025 reported modest tariff drag (below $5M in Q2) with improved sequential performance and clear timing of cost recovery

    Moderation of tariff impact – Earlier concerns are easing as better pass‐through and mitigation strategies result in reduced tariff drag.

    Commercial Truck Segment & Regulatory Risks

    Q1 2025 reported significant revenue declines and margin pressures with regulatory uncertainties due to tariffs and economic headwinds , Q4 2024 noted a 12% revenue drop but maintained healthy margins , and Q3 2024 pointed to continued softness linked to upcoming environmental regulations

    Q2 2025 indicated continued weakness with a 4% revenue decline, and softness persists in the commercial truck market, though stabilization is expected in 2026

    Persistent underperformance with cautious outlook – The segment remains weak across periods, with expectations for stabilization only in the longer term.

    Engine Segment Challenges (Destocking & Yield Uncertainty)

    Q1 2025 discussed destocking issues in LPT parts and manageable yield uncertainty for new blade production , Q3 2024 noted potential destocking risks and early yield observations on the LEAP-1A blade , while Q4 2024 mentioned changeover costs without explicit destocking concerns

    Q2 2025 acknowledged destocking in commercial aerospace and rising headcount-related production costs, while maintaining that strong spares demand and capacity expansion help mitigate these issues

    Ongoing challenges, partially mitigated by capacity investments – While destocking and yield issues persist, they are being addressed through increased production capacity and are expected to ease over time.

    Financial Strength & Capital Allocation

    Q1 2025 underscored strong liquidity, record free cash flow and disciplined share repurchases , Q4 2024 emphasized improved net debt, robust cash balances and active buybacks/dividend increases , and Q3 2024 highlighted strong free cash flow and strategic debt management

    Q2 2025 continued to reflect a strong balance sheet with a $546 million cash balance, significant debt reductions, record free cash flow, and active share repurchase and dividend increases

    Consistently robust financials with strategic capital returns – Across periods, Howmet maintains a strong liquidity profile and makes disciplined capital allocation decisions via buybacks and dividends.

    Industrial Gas Turbine (IGT) Market Growth Driven by Data Center Demand

    Q1 2025 described steady growth with revenue up 12% YoY, capacity expansions in key regions and robust customer agreements , Q4 2024 highlighted an “exceptional” outlook driven by data center energy demands and shifts in energy mix , and Q3 2024 cited AI/data center and crypto demand with strong long‑term growth prospects

    Q2 2025 reported 25% YoY growth in IGT and detailed significant capacity investments (new Japan plant, Europe extension), with data center demand prominently driving the market

    Robust and accelerating growth driven by data center demand – The IGT market continues to see strong expansion fueled by rising electricity demands from data centers and AI, with capacity expansions underway.

    Rising Labor Costs & Training Impact

    Q1 2025 mentioned recruiting 500 new employees with expected training impacts on margins , Q3 2024 detailed significant hiring and training investments affecting short-term margins , and Q4 2024 discussed broader employee adjustments due to events like a Boeing strike

    Q2 2025 reported additional headcount increases (400 net in Q2) for the engine business and associated training-related scrap and margin drag, though with an expectation of smoothing out by 2026–2027

    Near-term margin pressure from workforce expansion – Rising labor costs and training investments continue to impact margins now, though they are viewed as critical for long-term capacity and potential improvements mid-term.

    Shift from Original Equipment (OE) to Spares Focus

    Q1 2025 stressed a clear upward shift with spares revenue growing at over 33% YoY and spares moving from 11% to 20% of revenue , Q4 2024 noted spares now representing 17% of revenue with delayed peak for CFM56 spares , and Q3 2024 projected aftermarket exposure rising above 20%

    Q2 2025 reiterated the trend with spares driving 40% YoY growth, the F‑35 program accelerating spares demand, and spares now accounting for 20% of total revenue

    Definitive shift from OE toward a spares-dominated mix – The company is strategically transitioning its revenue mix from traditional OE to higher-margin spares, a trend that is accelerating in the current period.

    Reduced Emphasis on M&A Activities

    Q3 2024 briefly mentioned that while small, technology-enhancing acquisitions were considered, larger deals were weighed against stock buybacks and had no immediate plans ; Q1 and Q4 2024 were silent on the topic

    Q2 2025 did not address M&A activities, consistent with earlier indications of cautious or minimal near-term M&A activity

    Limited focus on M&A continues – Recent commentary indicates disciplined and opportunistic rather than proactive M&A, with no significant activity anticipated in the near term.

    1. MAX/Tariffs
      Q: What are MAX build and tariff assumptions?
      A: Management raised the average MAX build rate from 28 to 33 per month and indicated tariff drag was minimal, at less than $5M this quarter.

    2. Engine Expansion
      Q: When will new engine capacity contribute revenue?
      A: They expect the first completed plant in Michigan to start delivering saleable output in the fourth quarter, with other expansions contributing in 2026–2027 as CAPEX investments pay off.

    3. CAPEX Impact
      Q: How does increased CAPEX translate to revenue?
      A: Management believes the additional capital, now in the high three hundreds, will boost run rate revenue by roughly 4%, with most benefits materializing in 2026–2027.

    4. Defense/F-35
      Q: What is the outlook for F‑35 spares and production?
      A: They expect F‑35 spares demand to kick in as production aligns one-to-one with Lockheed’s rates, supporting a gradual volume increase through the end of the decade.

    5. Fastener Margins
      Q: Why didn’t fastener revenue growth boost margins?
      A: While aerospace fastener sales grew, sequential profit was tempered by tariff drag, which management described as primarily a timing issue that should improve as adjustments occur.

    6. IGT/Industrial
      Q: How will industrial gas turbine agreements impact margins?
      A: With agreements in place with three major players, IGT margins are expected to mirror commercial aerospace margins, supporting strong growth from these industrial gas turbines.

    7. Pricing Outlook
      Q: What are next year’s pricing expectations?
      A: Pricing is set to follow historical trends with renewals delivering similar or slightly higher net increases year over year, maintaining their disciplined approach.

    8. Structures Rationalization
      Q: How is product line rationalization affecting margins?
      A: Most rationalization has already occurred, helping to offset headwinds and solidify margins, with minimal expected disruption going forward.

    9. Productivity/Headcount
      Q: How is headcount growth affecting productivity?
      A: Despite adding nearly 1,500–1,800 employees to support capacity, overall productivity has improved through automation investments, with plans to enhance it further in coming years.

    10. Overall Concerns
      Q: Any lingering business “worry beads” to note?
      A: Beyond uncertainty in commercial truck volumes and evolving emission regulations, management sees a broadly solid outlook, with defense, spares, and IGT showing strength.

    11. Forging Presses
      Q: Are you discussing upgrades to heavy forging presses with DoD?
      A: There have been no formal conversations yet, though the uniqueness of their heavy presses makes them critical assets, prompting future discussions with the DOD.

    12. Precision Cast Parts
      Q: Are orders recovering after the PCC facility accident?
      A: Orders have improved from approximately 25M to close to 40M dollars, with equipment relocated and capacity gradually being restored.

    Research analysts covering Howmet Aerospace.