IG
i-80 Gold Corp. (IAUX)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 revenue was $14.048M and loss per share was $0.10; higher sales and price lifted revenue YoY, but the quarter remained loss-making due to non-cash revaluation losses on gold prepay and silver purchase agreements as forward curves rose .
- Granite Creek ramp-up progressed with improved dewatering and pump capacity; management reiterated steady-state output expected in H2 2025, and 2025 production guidance of 30–40K oz (20–30K oz from Granite Creek, ~10K oz from Ruby Hill and Lone Tree heap leach) .
- Liquidity actions continued: Auramet $12M working capital prepay, National Bank prepay to term out March deliveries; cash ended Q1 at $13.5M (pro forma ~$25M including Auramet) .
- Consensus coverage remains sparse; Q1 EPS missed a thin consensus (-$0.10 actual vs -$0.02 estimate, 1 estimate) while revenue consensus was unavailable; estimate adjustments likely needed to reflect the toll-milling timing lag and non-cash derivative impacts . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
- Near-term stock catalysts: execution on recapitalization (senior debt, royalty/non-core asset sale), permitting milestones (Archimedes state permits expected by end-Q2), and evidence of Granite Creek dewatering translating into sales as 120-day toll lag is digested .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Dewatering improvements at Granite Creek (greater pump availability/capacity) reduced mine interruptions; water levels are dropping, supporting H2 2025 steady-state ramp expectations .
Quote: “We are making good progress in our dewatering efforts… These improvements should allow us to ramp-up to steady state of gold output in the second half of 2025.” — Richard Young, CEO . - Revenue growth YoY (+67%) driven by higher ounces and higher realized gold price ($2,825/oz); consolidated gold sales reached 4,952 oz vs 4,061 oz in Q1 2024 .
- Strategic financing steps: Auramet $12M working capital facility closed, National Bank prepay arranged; management is actively pursuing senior debt and royalty/non-core asset sales to unlock project value .
What Went Wrong
- Quarterly loss widened ($41.2M vs $19.7M YoY) primarily from non-cash revaluation losses tied to gold prepay and silver purchase agreements, and $8.2M interest expense; derivative losses driven by higher forward gold/silver prices .
- Toll milling cash-conversion lag (~120 days) constrains reported production/sales cadence despite stockpiled sulfide tonnes (~26,613 t) and mining progress; management expects catch-up but currently forecasts full 120-day delay .
- Balance sheet remains constrained: Q1 operating cash outflow of $22.7M, quarter-end cash $13.5M; management is deferring non-essential costs pending recapitalization .
Financial Results
Segment/Asset breakdown (Q1 2025):
Key KPIs:
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategic message: “With preliminary economic assessments released for all five gold assets… after-tax NPV of approximately $1.6 billion at $2,175/oz… we’ve mapped out a credible and staged development plan.” — Richard Young .
- Liquidity: “We finalized a $12 million working capital facility with Auramet… increasing our pro forma cash balance to approximately $25 million” — Richard Young .
- Operational cadence: “Under that toll milling agreement… 120 days… we may start to catch up through the course of the year, but we are currently running our forecast assuming a full 120-day delay.” — Richard Young .
- Organization: New COO, Paul Chawrun, emphasizes technical execution focus and site tours before detailed commentary .
Q&A Highlights
- Revenue/sales timing: Management highlighted the ~120-day toll-milling lag; cash impact mitigated by Auramet prepay, but reported sales will reflect lag; potential catch-up later in the year remains uncertain (60–120 days) .
- ATM program: Small Q1 proceeds were pre-Feb 8; ATM not reactivated post year-end GAAP transition; no plans to restart ATM .
- New COO perspective: Early-stage observations; strong asset base; detailed operational comments expected after site reviews .
Estimates Context
- EPS vs Consensus (Q1 2025): Actual $(0.10) vs Consensus $(0.02)* → bold miss owing to non-cash derivative losses and interest expense; coverage limited (1 estimate)* . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
- Revenue Consensus (Q1 2025): Unavailable/coverage limited; actual $14.048M . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
- Implications: Street models likely need to incorporate toll-milling lag on sales recognition and derivative mark-to-market sensitivity to forward curves, with limited near-term reduction in interest expense until refinancing is executed .
Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term print was noisy but operational progress is real: dewatering and development pace at Granite Creek are improving; watch H2 sales cadence as toll lag normalizes .
- The quarter’s miss was driven by non-cash derivative losses and interest burden; hedge/stream accounting volatility can recur with rising gold/silver forward curves until refinancing terms are reset .
- Liquidity runway strengthened via Auramet and National Bank arrangements; the critical next catalyst is senior debt/royalty/non-core sale execution to align capital structure with development plan timing .
- 2025 guidance maintained (30–40K oz) with Granite Creek 20–30K oz; a bold sales catch-up would be contingent on smoother toll-mill processing and stockpile drawdown .
- Permitting milestones (Archimedes state permits; Cove EIS initiation) underpin the multi-asset ramp; slippage at Archimedes state permits to Q2 remains modest vs prior commentary .
- For trading: newsflow on financing execution and evidence of sales conversion from stockpiles (despite the 120-day lag) are likely to move the stock; macro gold price strength helps revenue but can worsen derivative marks near-term .
- Medium-term thesis: five-asset plan with consolidated processing via autoclave supports scale; successful recapitalization could rerate shares toward portfolio NPV trajectories outlined in PEAs .
Notes:
* Values retrieved from S&P Global.