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    Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 18, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$152.98Last close (Oct 15, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$148.23Open (Oct 16, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-4.75(-3.10%)
    • Interactive Brokers is attracting more proprietary traders, who are the second most lucrative segment, bringing in more cash and generating higher commissions and volumes. ,
    • Anticipation of increased trading volumes and volatility around the upcoming elections, expected to result in higher volumes and higher volatility, which can boost trading revenues.
    • An expected increase in IPO activity, particularly in Asia, is anticipated to generate increased trading volumes, fees from new listings, and enhanced securities lending opportunities.
    • Founder Thomas Peterffy's reluctance to sell stock due to fear of tanking the stock price may indicate potential low liquidity or market sensitivity for IBKR shares. He stated, "I'm not about to go and sell into the market because when the news since the market, the stock tanks. I'm not getting the price I'd like to get."
    • Increased legal and regulatory charges could impact profitability. The company recorded a $9 million legal and regulatory charge this quarter. Milan Galik explained, "Our legal department advises us if they feel that an increase in the reserve -- legal reserve is appropriate. That is what they did this quarter, so we have increased the reserve."
    • Predictable hit to net interest income (NII) in a lower rate environment. CEO Milan Galik acknowledged, "There is a predictable hit the net interest income is going to take on the interest that we earn on the uninvested cash... If we see further decreases in the interest rates... We are not too worried about that."
    1. ForecastEx Potential
      Q: When will ForecastEx materially impact results?
      A: Thomas Peterffy expects ForecastEx to scale later this year, especially in the days leading up to the election. The high interest in political contracts is drawing in customers who will become clients for economic and climate contracts—their long-term focus.

    2. Interest Income Outlook
      Q: How will declining rates affect net interest income?
      A: Milan acknowledges a predictable hit to net interest income from lower rates impacting uninvested cash. However, he expects offsets from continued account growth and new free cash inflows, anticipating a "tug of war" between these effects but remains optimistic about future growth.

    3. Trading Activity Stabilization
      Q: Is trading per account improving due to prop traders?
      A: Milan notes that prop trading accounts have increased their commissions faster than other segments, contributing to the stabilization and slight improvement in trading activity per account this year.

    4. RIA Channel Growth
      Q: Is the RIA client base changing and growing?
      A: Milan states they are attracting larger RIAs but not as many as hoped. They are enhancing the RIA platform with new functionality expected this quarter or next, aiming to attract more advisors.

    5. Legal Reserves Increase
      Q: What's behind the $9 million legal charge?
      A: Paul explains they regularly assess open cases and increased legal reserves accordingly. Milan adds that regulatory scrutiny led their legal department to advise a reserve increase this quarter.

    6. Competitor Index Options
      Q: Will new competitor affect index options pricing?
      A: Milan believes it's difficult to estimate the impact until the competitor launches and announces pricing, noting index options have recently attracted a more diverse clientele.

    7. Dubai Expansion Plans
      Q: What are your plans for the Dubai office?
      A: Milan says they're aiming to attract sophisticated accounts, including hedge funds and significant investors. Dubai is a "hot place" with many expats, and they have optimistic expectations for the new office.

    8. Election Trading Dynamics
      Q: How will elections affect trading activity?
      A: Milan expects increased volatility and higher volumes approaching election day, similar to previous elections, leading to more trading activity on their platform.

    9. IPO Market Impact
      Q: How will a rebound in IPOs affect you?
      A: Milan anticipates participating in IPOs, especially in Asia, leading to fees from new listings and increased trading volumes. Paul adds that securities lending opportunities typically rise around IPOs.

    10. Chinese Stimulus Effects
      Q: What impact did Chinese stimulus have?
      A: Milan notes the recent Chinese stimulus led to a sudden run-up in Chinese securities prices but does not yet have information on its effect on customer accounts; more details are expected next quarter.

    11. Cash in New Accounts
      Q: Are new accounts holding more cash?
      A: Paul mentions new accounts generally bring more cash. Thomas adds that prop traders, who are increasing, have more cash and generate more volume than individual traders.

    12. Marketing Spend Outlook
      Q: How will marketing expenses change?
      A: Milan plans to increase marketing spend by approximately 20% annually, continuously adjusting based on channel performance to support account growth.

    13. Thomas's Stock Sales
      Q: Will you resume selling your stock?
      A: Thomas says he may sell if large bidders emerge but won't sell into the market, as public sales tend to depress the stock price below his desired level.

    14. ForecastEx Global Expansion
      Q: Can ForecastEx be offered abroad?
      A: Thomas explains they are working with regulators to offer economic and climate indicator contracts internationally but currently can't provide political contracts outside the U.S. due to regulatory constraints and the need for reliable arbiters.