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    International Business Machines Corp (IBM)

    IBM Q2 2025: Software Growth Slows to 3-4%, AI Book Hits $7.5B

    Reported on Jul 24, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$282.01Last close (Jul 23, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$261.25Open (Jul 24, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-20.76(-7.36%)
    • Integrated Software Momentum: IBM's software portfolio, driven by strong performance in Red Hat (14% growth and mid-teens organic growth outlook) and automation (operating well above model expectations), positions the company for sustained organic growth.
    • AI Leadership: Building a cumulative Gen AI book of business exceeding $7,500,000,000 and rolling out differentiated AI products (e.g., Watson X Code Assistant on Z) highlights IBM’s leadership and potential to drive incremental revenue, with strong customer pipeline momentum in the AI domain.
    • Operational Efficiency and Margin Expansion: The company's disciplined execution—evidenced by record free cash flow generation, enhanced operating margins, and significant productivity initiatives—underscores its ability to drive profitability despite macro headwinds.
    • Organic software growth slowdown: Multiple questions highlighted that organic growth in software decelerated to only 3%-4% in the quarter, which raises concerns about the sustainability of the previously guided double-digit growth rate later in the year.
    • Pressure on transaction processing revenue: The performance in transaction processing was flat (down 2%) as clients shifted spending toward hardware (Z17 mainframe), suggesting that short-term revenue may suffer due to delayed software monetization from mainframe cycles.
    • Volatility in the consulting segment: The consulting business experienced flat revenue and lower signings—partly due to high early renewals dragging down net new business—with some concerns over shorter contract durations and margin pressures, which could impact future growth and cash flow.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    7.6% increase (from $15,770M in Q2 2024 to $16,977M in Q2 2025)

    Strong cross‐segment performance drove the revenue uplift, building on improvements from previous periods where lower overall segment contributions and currency headwinds were noted. The combination of robust Software and Infrastructure growth compared to the prior period helped lift the total revenue figure.

    Software Revenue

    9.6% increase (from $6,739M in Q2 2024 to $7,387M in Q2 2025)

    Robust demand for hybrid cloud and AI capabilities, supported by strategic acquisitions and organic improvements, propelled the Software revenue growth. This increase builds on prior period momentum where similar drivers, such as strong performance in generative AI and recurring revenue streams, had already been established.

    Consulting Revenue

    2.6% increase (from $5,179M in Q2 2024 to $5,314M in Q2 2025)

    Modest growth in consulting revenue reflects a rebound from earlier periods influenced by cautious client spending and macroeconomic uncertainty. Unlike previous quarters that faced sharper declines or mixed performance due to reprioritized budgets, the current period shows a steadier trend driven by resilient demand in strategic and technology-focused consulting areas.

    Infrastructure Revenue

    13.6% increase (from $3,645M in Q2 2024 to $4,142M in Q2 2025)

    The sharp rise in Infrastructure revenue is linked to improved performance in hardware and distributed infrastructure segments, aided by new product cycles and recovery from earlier product cycle slowdowns. This improvement contrasts with previous periods where product cycle dynamics had led to declines, indicating a successful turnaround in this segment.

    Financing Revenue

    Slight decline (from $169M in Q2 2024 to $166M in Q2 2025)

    The marginal drop in Financing revenue reflects ongoing challenges such as reduced client asset financing and higher credit loss reserves, trends that had also impacted prior periods. Despite adjustments in currency effects previously, these underlying issues continue to weigh on the segment performance.

    Other Category

    Reversal from a $38M positive in Q2 2024 to a $(31)M loss in Q2 2025

    The shift in the Other category mainly arises from a reversal in gains on divestitures and changes in net exchange and retirement-related costs. In previous periods, higher divestiture gains and favorable exchange outcomes boosted this category; the current period shows a correction with lower gains and reduced non-operating costs.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue growth

    FY 2025

    5%-plus

    5% plus

    no change

    Free Cash Flow

    FY 2025

    $13.5 billion

    above $13,500,000,000

    no change

    Operating Pre-Tax Margin

    FY 2025

    expand by over 0.5 point

    expand by about a point

    raised

    Tax Rate

    FY 2025

    mid-teens

    mid-teens

    no change

    Software revenue growth

    FY 2025

    mid-teens growth

    approaching double digits

    lowered

    Consulting growth

    FY 2025

    flat or low single digits

    prudently cautious

    no change

    Infrastructure contribution

    FY 2025

    growth expected

    about 1.5 points

    raised

    Transaction processing growth

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    low single-digit growth

    no prior guidance

    Productivity savings

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $4,500,000,000

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Revenue
    Q2 2025
    $16.4 billion to $16.75 billion
    $16.977 billion
    Beat
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Integrated Software Growth

    Discussed in Q1 2025 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ), and Q3 2024 ( ) with emphasis on multiple components such as Red Hat, automation, data and recurring revenue.

    Q2 2025 call noted software growth at 8% with confidence of approaching double‐digit annual growth, driven by Red Hat and other portfolio contributions ( ).

    Recurring focus with steady portfolio strength. Quarterly fluctuations exist, but forward‐looking guidance remains positive ( ).

    AI and Generative AI Initiatives

    Emphasized in Q1 2025 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ) and Q3 2024 ( ), outlining generative AI product contributions and growing books of business in consulting and software.

    Q2 2025 highlighted accelerated momentum with a generative AI book of business over $7.5B, deeper integration in workflows, and expanded partner collaborations ( ).

    Growing momentum and scale. Enhanced product offerings and increased market recognition indicate a stronger future impact ( ).

    Consulting Business Performance and Volatility

    Covered in Q1 2025 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ) and Q3 2024 ( ) with discussions on flat revenue, volatility due to client pullbacks, and evolving signings.

    Q2 2025 reported flat revenue, a healthy backlog with slight improvements in strategic wins and adjusted booking durations ( ).

    Stable but amid volatility. While traditional challenges persist, there is cautious optimism with new client wins and a solid backlog ( ).

    Operational Efficiency, Free Cash Flow, and Margin Expansion

    Addressed in Q1 2025 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ) and Q3 2024 ( ) highlighting significant productivity initiatives and margin gains.

    Q2 2025 showcased record free cash flow, improved EBITDA and operating margins with 200 bps of EBITDA margin expansion and a strong focus on productivity ( ).

    Consistently positive and improving. Financial management and efficiency measures are strengthening margins and cash flow generation, enhancing future investment potential ( ).

    Strategic Acquisitions

    Mentioned in Q1 2025 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ) and Q3 2024 ( ) with emphasis on transactions like HashiCorp, Neural Magic, and others enhancing the hybrid cloud and AI strategy.

    Q2 2025 reiterated the strategic importance of acquisitions, particularly highlighting HashiCorp’s strong start and automation synergies, with a pipeline three times last year ( ).

    Consistent emphasis with growing synergy. Acquisitions remain central to growth, with enhanced expectations of value creation through integration and portfolio expansion ( ).

    Mainframe and Transaction Processing Revenue Dynamics

    Q1 2025 ( ) discussed the transition from the z16 and upcoming z17 launch; Q4 2024 ( ) and Q3 2024 ( ) focused on strong z16 performance and mixed transaction processing trends.

    Q2 2025 emphasized robust IBM Z performance, with IBM Z up 67% on the Z17 program, while transaction processing declined 2% due to cyclical hardware spend shifts ( ).

    Mixed dynamics with a positive outlook. Mainframe performance is strong thanks to the new cycle, though transaction processing shows expected cyclical pressure ( ).

    Sustainability of Organic Software Growth

    Q1 2025 ( ) noted an ARR of $21.7B with 11% growth and 6 points from organic software; Q4 2024 ( ) and Q3 2024 ( ) discussed organic contributions of 7–8 points and recurring revenue strength.

    Q2 2025 highlighted a robust recurring revenue base of $23B with double digit growth, underpinned by strong contributions from Red Hat, automation, and data segments ( ).

    Steady and optimistic. The narrative remains that organic growth is sustainable and may even accelerate going forward given the high recurring revenue mix ( ).

    FX and Currency Volatility Risks

    Q1 2025 ( ) detailed significant FX devaluation impacts; Q4 2024 ( ) and Q3 2024 ( ) mentioned modest headwinds due to a strengthening dollar.

    Q2 2025 reported FX as a minor tailwind, with only a small portion of the revenue beat attributable to currency effects ( ).

    Reduced prominence. FX volatility is now less of a headwind compared to the dramatic impact noted in Q1 2025, suggesting more stable currency conditions ( ).

    Transient Impacts

    Q1 2025 ( ) mentioned some transient impacts from DOGE-related initiatives affecting consulting, though this was limited in scope; Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 did not mention this.

    Q2 2025 did not mention any transient impacts such as DOGE-related initiatives ([N/A]).

    Disappearing topic. Previously noted transient effects are no longer mentioned, indicating these impacts have likely subsided and are not a current concern ( ).

    1. Guidance Outlook
      Q: Why not raise guidance despite strong Q2 results?
      A: Management explained that although free cash flow and revenue exceeded expectations, they remain conservative amid remaining uncertainties while benefiting from productivity gains and a solid operating margin, leaving ample upside in the back half of the year.

    2. Software Trends
      Q: Did organic software growth decelerate to 3–4%?
      A: Management noted that organic software growth dipped to about 3–4% in the quarter due to puts and takes across segments like transaction processing, but they expect acceleration from strong Red Hat, automation, and other synergy efforts in the coming quarters.

    3. Future Outlook
      Q: Can software growth improve into 2026?
      A: Management is confident that their robust software portfolio—with solid performance from Red Hat, automation, and AI—will not only sustain but potentially improve organic growth into 2026, supported by a shortened consulting backlog and enhanced conversion in new projects.

    4. Customer Spending
      Q: How are customer spending and Red Hat trends evolving?
      A: Management observed that despite a volatile macro climate, customers continue prioritizing technology investments, with a resilient demand for Red Hat and virtualization solutions driving container platform adoption and overall enhanced client spending.

    5. Public Sector
      Q: What is the impact of shifting federal spending priorities?
      A: Management indicated that federal focus is moving from mere cost cutting to modernizing agencies, with clear high-level engagement and renewed emphasis on leveraging technology and AI to improve services and reduce waste.

    6. GenAI Orchestrate
      Q: How do GenAI products differentiate in the market?
      A: Management highlighted strong early adoption of their GenAI suite, emphasizing that their Watson X offerings—including orchestration that blends proprietary and third‐party agents—are uniquely positioned to transform client workflows incrementally without cannibalizing existing spend.