Installed Building Products - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Welcome to Installed Building Products fourth quarter 2025 financial results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Darren Hicks, VP, Investor Relations. Thank you. Mr. Hicks, you may begin.

Darren Hicks (VP of Investor Relations)

Good morning, welcome to Installed Building Products fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Earlier today, we issued a press release on our financial results for the 2025 fourth quarter and fiscal year, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. On today's call, management's prepared remarks and answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current beliefs and expectations and are subject to factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described today. Please refer to our SEC filings for cautionary statements and risk factors. We undertake no duty or obligation to update any forward-looking statement as a result of new information or future events, except as required by federal securities laws. In addition, management refers to certain non-GAAP and adjusted financial measures on this call.

You can find a reconciliation of such non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP equivalent in the company's earnings release and investor presentation, both of which are available in the Investor Relations section of our website. This morning's conference call is hosted by Jeff Edwards, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Michael Miller, our Chief Financial Officer, and we are also joined by Jason Niswonger, our Chief Administrative and Sustainability Officer. Jeff, I will now turn the call over to you.

Jeff Edwards (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Darren, good morning to everyone joining us today. As usual, I will start the call with some highlights and then turn the call over to Michael, who will discuss our financial results in more detail before we take your questions. We closed out 2025 with a strong fourth quarter, delivering record sales and profitability for the year. While our core residential end markets experienced headwinds, in part due to housing affordability, our commercial end markets performed extremely well as we focused on meeting the needs of our customers, profitability, and product diversification across end markets. We continued to generate strong operating cash flow, which we use to support our growth-oriented capital allocation strategy.

While we expect home building activity to remain challenging in the near term, the long-term outlook for our installed services remains positive, and we believe we are well-positioned to continue investing in strategic acquisitions while returning cash to our shareholders. Capital allocation decisions are among the most important we make as a company, and we take pride in our disciplined approach. For 2025, our adjusted return on invested capital was 24%, in line with the returns achieved over the previous three years. Even with industry-specific headwinds expected to continue to affect our new residential insulation segment in the near term, our overall business has proved to be resilient. All the credit goes to the hardworking men and women across our more than 250 branches throughout the United States and those who support them from our office in Columbus, Ohio.

To everyone at IBP, thank you for making 2025 a great year. As we continue to focus on profitable growth and maximizing returns for our shareholders, we remain committed to doing the right thing for our employees, customers, and communities. Looking at our full year 2025 performance, consolidated sales increased 1% and same-branch sales declined 1%. Same-branch commercial sales growth was more than offset by residential same-branch sales growth headwinds. Residential sales growth within our installation segment was down 4% on a same-branch basis for 2025, as both single-family and multi-family same-branch sales decreased from the prior year. With respect to our single-family end market, the spring selling season is underway, but it's too early to draw any conclusions for the rest of the year.

We expect that, given readily available labor and material in relatively short construction cycle times, construction activity is primed to accelerate without any of the production-related hurdles that existed in prior years. In our multi-family end market, our contract backlog continues to grow, which is encouraging. Our commercial end market was a real bright spot in 2025, with sales in our installation segment up 10% on a same-branch basis from the prior year period. Our heavy commercial end market continued to be the dominant driver of sales growth, which more than offset weakness in our light commercial end market. Based on the growth in our heavy commercial contract backlogs, we believe heavy commercial sales and profitability are poised to remain healthy in 2026. We completed 11 acquisitions, including bolt-ons, during 2025, representing over $64 million of annual revenue.

We remain disciplined in our approach to acquiring well-run businesses that make strategic sense, support attractive returns on invested capital, and fit well culturally. Our core residential installation end market remains highly fragmented, with considerable opportunity for consolidation. During the 2025 fourth quarter, we completed a total of four acquisitions, representing over $23 million of annual sales from a diverse product set in both residential and commercial end markets. Acquisitions included an insulation installer, a glass design and fabrication company, a drywall and framing company, and a shower door shelving and mirror and accessories company. In addition, in January and February, we acquired an installer of insulation across new residential and commercial end markets throughout Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, in Oklahoma, with annual sales of approximately $5 million.

A provider of wide range of value-added mechanical installation services for diverse commercial and industrial applications, serving key commercial and industrial hubs across Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, and Illinois, with annual sales of approximately $13 million. An installer of insulation, primarily across new residential and light commercial markets throughout Kansas and Oklahoma, with annual sales of approximately $3 million. Although deal timing is hard to predict, our current outlook for acquisition opportunities in 2026 is strong, and we expect to acquire at least $100 million of annual revenue this year. In terms of broader housing construction activity in the U.S., Census Bureau data for 2025 showed single-family starts decreased 7% from the prior year, while multi-family starts were up 18% for the same period.

From a federal housing policy standpoint, we do not have any unique insight into the likelihood of changes in regulation coming to fruition or its potential impact or benefit. Our experienced leadership team has a history of operating through multiple housing cycles, and with our strong national market share and deep customer and supplier relationships, we are well-positioned to continue to compete and win business. We remain focused on growing our operations profitably and allocating capital effectively to drive value for our shareholders. I'm proud of our team's continued success and commitment to doing an excellent job for our customers. Once again, to everyone at IBP, thank you. I remain encouraged by the fundamentals of our industry, our competitive positioning, and I'm optimistic about the prospects ahead for IBP in the broader insulation and complementary building product installation business.

With this overview, I'd like to turn the call over to Michael to provide more detail on our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 financial results.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Thank you, Jeff. Good morning, everyone. Consolidated net revenue for the fourth quarter was roughly flat at $748 million, compared to $750 million for the same period last year. Same-branch sales for the installation segment were down 2% for the fourth quarter, as a 23% increase in commercial same-branch sales almost fully offset a 9% decline in new residential same-branch sales. Although the components behind our price mix and volume disclosures have several moving parts that are difficult to forecast and quantify, we reported a 1.7% increase in price mix during the fourth quarter. This result was offset by a 9.3% decrease in job volumes relative to the fourth quarter last year.

It is important to note that our heavy commercial end market and the other distribution and manufacturing segment results are not included in the price mix and volume disclosures. Our heavy commercial same branch sales growth was incredibly strong at 38% during the 2025 fourth quarter, including the heavy commercial installation sales. Price mix increased 6%, while job volume decreased 9% during the 2025 fourth quarter. With respect to profit margins in the fourth quarter, our business achieved record adjusted gross margin of 35%, an increase from 33.6% in the prior year period. The year-over-year increase in margin during the quarter was in part related to a shift in our installation segment customer mix and successful management of direct operating costs in a demand environment that varied from challenging to healthy across end markets.

Adjusted selling and administrative expenses were relatively stable compared to the 2024 fourth quarter. As a percent of fourth quarter sales, adjusted selling and administrative expense was 18.3%, compared to 18.1% in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2025 fourth quarter increased to a record $142 million, reflecting a record Adjusted EBITDA margin of 19% and Adjusted Net Income increased to $88 million, or $3.24 per diluted share. Although we do not provide comprehensive financial guidance, based on recent acquisitions, we expect first quarter and full year 2026 amortization expense of approximately $10 million and $38 million, respectively. We would expect these estimates to change with any acquisitions we complete in future periods.

We continue to expect an effective tax rate of 25%-27% for the full year ending December 31st, 2026. For the 12 months ended December 31st, 2025, we generated $371 million in cash flow from operations. The 9% year-over-year increase in operating cash flow was primarily associated with an increase in net income and improvements in working capital management. Our fourth quarter net interest expense was $8 million, compared to $9 million for the 2024 fourth quarter, as higher interest income from investments, combined with lower cash interest expense on outstanding debt.

December 31st, 2025, we had a net debt to trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio of 1.1x, compared to 1.09x at December 31st, 2024, which remains well below our stated target of 2x. At December 31st, 2025, we had $377 million in working capital, excluding cash and cash equivalents. Capital expenditures and total incurred finance leases for the three months ended December 31st, 2025, were approximately $17 million combined, which was approximately 2% of revenue. In January 2026, we closed a private offering of $500 million in aggregate principal amount of 5.625% senior unsecured notes due 2034.

A portion of the proceeds were used to fully repay our $300 million notes due 2028. We also amended our existing $250 million asset-based lending revolving credit facility to, among other things, increase the commitments thereunder to $375 million and extend the maturity date to January 2031. Following the completion of these transactions, we have nearly $900 million in available liquidity and very modest financial leverage. Based on higher debt and cash balances, we estimate that first quarter interest expense will be approximately $11 million. With an even stronger liquidity position as a financial foundation, we will continue to prioritize acquisitions with long-term strategic benefits and attractive returns on invested capital. We expect positive free cash flow will continue to support shareholder returns and stock buybacks based on prevailing market conditions.

During the 2025 fourth quarter, we repurchased 150,000 shares of common stock at a total cost of $38 million and 850,000 shares at a total cost of $173 million during the 12 months ended December 31st, 2025. The Board of Directors authorized a new $500 million stock buyback program. The new authorization replaces the previous program and is in effect through March 1st, 2027. IBP's Board of Directors approved the first quarter dividend of $0.39 per share, which is payable on March 31st, 2026, to stockholders of record on March 13th, 2026. The first quarter dividend represents a more than 5% increase over the prior year period.

As a part of our established dividend policy, today we announced that our Board has declared a $1.80 per share annual variable dividend, which is a nearly 6% increase over the variable dividend we paid last year. The 2026 variable dividend amount was based on the cash flow generated by our operations, with consideration for planned cash obligations, acquisitions, and other factors as determined by the Board. The variable dividend will be paid concurrent with the regular quarterly dividend on March 31st, 2026, to stockholders of record on March 13th, 2026. We are committed to continuing to grow the company while returning excess capital to shareholders through our dividend policy and opportunistic share repurchases. With this overview, I will now turn the call back to Jeff for closing remarks.

Jeff Edwards (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Michael. I'd like to conclude our prepared remarks by once again thanking IBP employees for their hard work and commitment to our company. Our success over the years is made possible because of you. Operator, let's open up the call for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your questions from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. As a reminder, please restrict yourself to one question and one follow-up. One moment please, while we poll for questions. The first question comes from the line of Philip Ng with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Philip Ng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, guys, congrats on a really strong quarter in a not so easy environment. Your gross margin, EBITDA margin expanded nicely this year, pretty impressive. In this current backdrop, you know, when we look out to 2026, you know, what's your confidence in protecting margins? Your largest competitor just reported results. They're calling out perhaps low single-digit price deflation in 2026 and some price costs headwind. How should we think about it as it relates to IBP?

Michael Miller (CFO)

Hey, Phil, this is Michael. Thanks for the compliment. We certainly are extremely proud with what the team has delivered, not just in the fourth quarter, but this year. I mean, as it relates to, you know, margins, particularly gross margins, and I'll say it at, you know, at least probably 10 times today, like I do on every call, you know, we don't provide guidance. What I would say is that, you know, as we look across the business and, you know, we look at how well the commercial business is performing, we believe it'll continue to do that. The other segment, which is the manufacturing and distribution segment, is continuing to perform very well, and we think it will continue to do that. When we look at the, you know, core residential installation business, we really think of it as in two buckets.

You know, the first bucket being the, you know, regional, private, you know, move-up, custom, semi-custom builder. We're really seeing, you know, relatively consistent demand there, which is You know, we've seen that through really most of 2025 and, you know, going into 2026 as well, although clearly, which is something I'm sure we'll talk about on the call today, clearly the year is off to a slow start, given, you know, some of the weather-related issues that have been experienced across the country. What I would say is that where there's weakness and where there's pressure, is within the entry-level production builder, segment of our business. You know, right now, I think it's way too early to call whether or not there's an inflection and there will be an inflection in the spring selling season.

Something that was a little bit encouraging, I would say, is that in the recent information released by the Census Bureau, if you look at single-family starts on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, right? In the fourth quarter, those starts averaged about 6% higher than they did in the third quarter. Again, that was the seasonally adjusted annualized rate. That's a positive, you know, and I think commentary from, you know, companies in our space that have reported, have noted or highlighted that the production builders really decreased and slowed down their building in the fourth quarter in order for, you know, their standing inventory to catch up to demand. You know, it's our belief that if the market is sort of flattish and we don't see an inflection on the entry-level side, that there'll probably be some level of rebuilding of those inventories.

You know, this continues to be a market where, you know, builders at the entry-level market are building spec. You know, we do believe there'll be some recovery, if you will, in starts there that will be constructive. You know, as we look out from a macro perspective and sort of look at, again, that entry-level market, the affordability issue is still a real issue. You know, it's yet to be seen whether or not it is going to inflect positively this year and just how much it's going to inflect positively. If you look at, I'm giving too much information on this one question, sorry.

I mean, if you look at what the public builders have disclosed from their guidance, I mean, they're talking about a pretty weak first quarter and really first half, with an inflection, pretty strong, positive inflection in the back half of the year. Now, obviously, we all know that's off of easy comps that help drive that. You know, we think it's relatively constructive. Yeah, I'm sorry if that was too much information on that one question.

Philip Ng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

No, that's great color, Michael. Then your commercial business has been a bright spot, right? It's growing nicely. It's a business, you've improved and enhanced profitability. Is that an area where you guys can get behind a little more so from an investment standpoint, whether it's M&A or organic? Just kind of help us think through the opportunity set there, your ability to can you to drive momentum, and do you plan to put a little more capital there to kind of support the growth?

Jeff Edwards (Chairman and CEO)

Philip, it's Jeff Edwards.

Philip Ng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, Jeff.

Jeff Edwards (Chairman and CEO)

Excuse me. I would say, for sure, you know, as we always are, we'll be as opportunistic as the situation, you know, kind of offers or demands. There is room for both organic growth, though, and M&A growth. We haven't pursued it that hard yet because, quite frankly, we've been growing the base business, enough where that hasn't been, and really tightening the screws. At this point, we feel very, very good about the business, and we do feel good about growth prospects going forward.

Philip Ng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Jeff, why haven't you put more thought or capital there? I mean, the base business has been a little squishier, and this seems like a nice bright spot, and there's a lot of runway for heavy commercial, I think, for most companies that we cover.

Jeff Edwards (Chairman and CEO)

I think it's really been probably the last two, at most three quarters, where we felt like it was really in a position where we didn't need to kind of continue to work the base business. I think at this point, I'd say we're ready to try to grow that business.

Philip Ng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Thank you for the.

Jeff Edwards (Chairman and CEO)

More than just organically, 'cause we've had a heck of a lot of growth, really, from an organic perspective.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Yeah, I think

Philip Ng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay

Michael Miller (CFO)

... to Jeff's point, I mean, the key is that that growth has been phenomenal, and it's not just been growth, it's been very profitable growth. We wanted to make sure the team was ready to do additional acquisitions. The last thing we would want to do is kind of mess up their day, if you will, through the integration process of an acquisition, and have them take their eye off the ball of the existing business. To Jeff's point, the past couple of quarters, we feel really confident that they've gotten to that point, so.

Philip Ng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Great color. Thank you so much.

Jeff Edwards (Chairman and CEO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Aatish Shah (Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, this is Aatish Shah for Steven. Thanks for taking the questions. I just wanted to talk about, if you could talk about the M&A landscape, and has there been any change in strategy, in terms of strategy, in terms of what kind of companies could be targeted? Specifically on that, just given interest from your largest competitor, has the commercial roofing market been an area of consideration? Thanks.

Jeff Edwards (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, this is Jeff again. As we've stated, I think in previous calls, yes, we're definitely interested in the commercial roofing segment. As you probably noted, we've done a few mechanical and industrial installation installers, and that's another area that we're interested in. Again, I think we're on record previously as saying that we were interested in that business, so I don't think it's a change in strategy. What I would say is that we've begun to really perform on those strategies a bit.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Fundamentally, you know, our core residential insulation installation business still presents tremendous opportunity for us, and, you know, we continue to pursue that area, significantly, just because we still have so much wide open space, as a company to acquire, in that core business for us. It really is, you know, if you will, a three-legged stool in terms of, our strategy there.

Aatish Shah (Equity Research Analyst)

That's helpful. Thanks for that. In the prepared remarks, you mentioned kind of a shift in customer mix in the installation segment. Can you just detail that a little bit?

Michael Miller (CFO)

Yeah, just to clarify, that wasn't just insulation, it was the installation business, so the kind of the residential installation business. You know, because we're continuing to see, you know, sales rates with the, you know, semi-custom, custom builder, you know, and weaker sales rates with the production builder, entry-level builder, that has a natural tendency, if you will, to improve and help gross margin. I mean, just as a, for example, during, this is based on the Census Bureau regions, during the quarter, our Midwest Census Bureau region revenue was up mid-single digits, right? That market for us is, you know, it's a, generally speaking, a higher gross margin, excuse me, market, because of the higher amount of private, semi-custom, custom homes that are built in that market.

You know, we've definitely benefited in the quarter from our geographic mix as well as our customer mix, from a, you know, a gross margin and a profitability perspective. I need to emphasize something, you know, that's very important, is that our teams in the other regions of the country did an excellent job of maintaining profitability across the board with our customers and really highlighting and selling well to our customers the importance and quality of our install services. You know, hats off to those, to everyone in the field for doing such a great job. That's great. Thank you. Sure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and let me add.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Good morning.

Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

- Congrats on a great quarter, guys. Well done.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Thanks. Thank you.

Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

My first. Of course. My first question is talking about the growth that you've seen in the complementary products. That's something that you've really focused on recently. Can you talk about where we are in that process? As you think about 2026 and the comps that you're gonna face there, are there any implications we should be thinking about as that relates to the path for margins or for the growth that you're gonna see coming through?

Michael Miller (CFO)

This is Mike. I mean, we have continued to see good uptake in the complementary products. The one thing I will say is, in the way that we sort of disclose those numbers, excuse me, in our, you know, investor PowerPoint, there's quite a bit of the complementary products that are related to the heavy commercial business, so that skews some of it. I would say when we look at the information and we take out the heavy commercial business and look at just the complementary product sales growth and margin growth within the install segment, again, excluding the heavy commercial business, it continues to improve, and we believe that, you know, we'll continue to see good uptake on the complementary product side.

As we've talked, you know, several times, the lack of opportunity or the softness in the single-family market really helps drive uptake of the complementary products within the branches. Because compensation is so closely tied to profitability within the organization, you know, the salespeople, the branch managers, the people that are running, our branches are really focused on, more focused on the complementary product opportunity when the installation opportunity is a little bit softer, particularly at that production builder level. Within the production builders at the entry level, we do have, very good complementary product penetration because of some of those efforts.

Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. That's great color. You mentioned that you've recently done some more deals in the mechanical space. Can you talk about your interest there, where you are in that process, how we should think about what that could mean for the future of the business? Maybe with that, any comments on your efforts to build out distribution as well and just where we are there?

Jeff Edwards (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, Susan, this is Jeff. We definitely, as Michael said, I guess if you wanted to consider it a third leg, we look at the mechanical and industrial as a huge opportunity for us. It's a business that's extremely fragmented. I would say on average, the prospective, you know, businesses that we've looked at have been a little larger than, you know, what we see typically in some of our other, you know, kind of regular way acquisitions. Margins are very favorable in terms of overall for the company. We, you know, at this point, obviously, we think we'd love to find a little bigger business and kind of build out a platform. We'll see what the future brings, but that's definitely something that we're looking at.

On the internal distribution or the distribution side of the business, we've been very pleased with the progress we've made really in the last two quarters within that business. We at this point, I'd have to, you know, probably guess a bit, but I would bet that we are servicing 60% to 70% of our branches at this point, from probably about five to six locations. We have a few more to add, but otherwise, it's worked exactly as we thought we would, and it's helped our margins.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Yes, definitely helped gross margins.

Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. All right, great. Well, thank you for the color, and good luck with the quarter.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Thanks. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Adam Baumgarten, Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.

Adam Baumgarten (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning, everyone. Just on the, you mentioned some positive mix, mixed impacts on gross margin from the better growth in custom and semi-custom and some regional factors like the Midwest, but the strong growth in heavy commercial, did that also contribute to the year gross margin expansion?

Michael Miller (CFO)

Oh, yeah, absolutely. You know, I think in the, excuse me, in the third quarter call, we sort of called out that we didn't expect that much of a tailwind, if you will, from the support or of the improvement, profit improvement within the heavy commercial business. You know, I guess we were sandbagging a little bit there, quite frankly, because the heavy commercial business did continue its relative outperformance. You know, we would estimate that the heavy commercial business added about, you know, 40 basis points or so to the gross margin improvement.

Adam Baumgarten (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, got it. Great. That's helpful. Just digging into the heavy commercial strength, I mean, was it pretty broad-based, or there are certain verticals, like maybe data center, that were, you know, kind of outsized contributors or kind of what you're seeing there, maybe by a net market vertical perspective and heavy?

Michael Miller (CFO)

Yeah, Brad Wheeler, our Chief Operating Officer, is here, and I'm going to have him add some color to this as well. It's not data center related. I mean, it's across the board with the, you know, big exception of high-rise multi-family. You know, it's a lot of educational, it's healthcare, it's recreation, transportation. You know, while we do some data center work, we don't chase it like other companies do.

Brad Wheeler (COO)

Hi, this is Brad. Yes, we've maintained our core, right? The educational and the even some of the offices back, which has helped. Manufacturing has increased, which is great. It's really us sticking to our core and taking advantage of any data centers that we have in our platform, so.

Adam Baumgarten (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, great. Thanks. Best of luck.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Michael Rehaut (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to first kind of go back big picture a little bit with the gross margins. You know, we've had many quarters now where you've really executed very strongly, and kind of at or above that 32%-34% range that you've talked about. There's also been, you know, as you've highlighted, you know, good improvement in commercial. You're benefiting from the mix on the semi-custom and the geographic. I'm just wondering, you know, with all those factors kind of benefiting the margin, if, you know, you've kind of given any thought to, you know, perhaps, thinking about gross margins over the next couple of years, maybe above that 32%-34%, you know, particularly given the strength in the fourth quarter.

Michael Miller (CFO)

That's a great question, and I'm glad that you asked it. It's our expectation that the gross margins would continue to be, particularly on a full year basis, in that 32%-34% range. As we were saying earlier to the answer to another question, I mean, fundamentally, when we look across the business, the only part that we're, you know, we don't have really good visibility into either being flat or up is the production builder entry-level market. We believe when that market inflex, and it will, we are very well positioned to, you know, participate in that upward inflection, but it will necessarily, you know, pressure gross margin just because that work is at a much lower gross margin.

What it does come with is great OpEx leverage. It should improve OpEx leverage and improve EBITDA margins. You know, right now, we're really just working hard to obviously, the parts of the business that are either flat or up, you know, we're doing everything we can to maximize profitability there and positioning the business to really, you know, do well once that inflection happens. You know, we really are confident about the team's ability to flex up to meet that demand, you know, when it comes. It's way too early, as Jeff said in his prepared remarks. I mean, it's way too early in the spring selling season to say whether or not we're going to see the inflection this year.

I do think there is some opportunity with the production builders sort of rebuilding inventory, if you will, you know, in the first half of the year.

Michael Rehaut (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay. No, I appreciate those thoughts. You know, I guess secondly, you know, I was hoping you could review where you are from a price-cost standpoint in the fourth quarter, and you just had your competitor out earlier this morning, talk about anticipated price cost headwinds for 2026. I was curious on your thoughts of how that dynamic how you expect that dynamic to play out for you in 2026, and if that might be a headwind as well relative to what you're seeing in your current results?

Michael Miller (CFO)

I mean, certainly at the entry level, part of the business, there's definitely price cost pressure. The team is doing an excellent job of, you know, trying to manage through that. You know, there's definitely going to be pressure there until that entry level, aspect of the market influx positively. Our team, again, I think they're doing a really good job of trying to manage that, but there's clearly pressure there, for sure. You know, clearly, in the first quarter, we're gonna have pressure from, you know, the weather. We estimated that in January and February, that the weather impact was about $20 million to revenue, in the first quarter.

We're working to make that up, and we will work to make that up, but we're not gonna be able to make that up in the month of March. It's just not gonna happen. It's definitely making that up, quote, unquote, "Is gonna, you know, fall into the second quarter." Yeah, we're gonna face pricing pressure with our customers, but I think as a company, we know that we've done an excellent job, and we believe our results reflect our ability to effectively manage that price cost pressure.

Michael Rehaut (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Is it fair to say then, Mike, that you're not you're expecting the pressure to continue, but maybe not incremental relative to what you're seeing already in your 4-key results?

Michael Miller (CFO)

Yeah, I think that's reasonable, although, you know, the first quarter is always our weakest quarter, right? The headwind that we have because of the, you know, the weather impact, you know, obviously, it is gonna be tough. If we think of it, and we like to think of it on a full year basis as opposed to a quarterly basis, we feel good about, you know, what the team's been able to do. If we have a flat to slightly down single-family market, you know, excluding any acquisitions that we do, given the strength that we're seeing in the commercial business and the manufacturing and distribution business, we feel pretty good about the year in general, right? You know, obviously, it's, you know, it's late February.

It's hard to call a year at this point, but, you know, there's definitely reason to be pretty encouraged.

Michael Rehaut (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Great. Thank you so much.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Mike Dahl (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I wanna take that last question and kind of flip it around and ask: In the fourth quarter, did you actually experience some effective price cost benefits? I know there's a lot moving around in terms of mix, different types of mix, but, you know, it seemed like there was some opportunity for buyers such as yourselves to get some lower pricing on resi fiberglass in the fourth quarter, and your reported pricing. Again, understanding there's a lot of mix, it was up. I'm just wondering if there was something like that actually also contributed to the gross margins. 'Cause the heavy commercial disclosure was helpful, but, you know, margins being up 100 basis points year-on-year, even, you know, taking that aside, is pretty impressive.

Michael Miller (CFO)

I mean, it is predominantly mix related and the team's ability to manage the cost structure as effectively as possible in the current environment. You know, as I think there's been a lot of discussion around, you know, fiberglass pricing, the fiberglass manufacturers, in our opinion, and I'll have Jeff or Brad talk a little bit more about this. I think they've done a good job of managing capacity relative to the demand environment, and I think they've done an excellent job of maintaining price. You know, I think it's clear to us that what they're focused on is maintaining price in the current environment so that when there's an upward inflection, they can keep that price, as opposed to lowering price now and making it more difficult to get price back when there is an upward inflection.

I don't know if you guys want to add anything to that.

Brad Wheeler (COO)

I think everything you said is accurate, and I wouldn't add anything.

Mike Dahl (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay. Got it. Appreciate that. Second question, just on the, on the commercial side and heavy commercial, it's interesting, the comments on, you know, maybe doing some more inorganically now. Just on the organic side, I mean, with this type of strength in same branch sales and the backlog that you're seeing, when we think about, like, organic OpEx or capacity expansions, how are you thinking about that in 2026? Do you really need to start to do more to support the growth that you're seeing in that segment?

Michael Miller (CFO)

Yeah, that's a really good question, given the growth rates that we're seeing. I mean, we clearly benefit from the highly variable cost structure. I'll ask Brad to give some more commentary on our ability to bring up capacity to support the demand.

Brad Wheeler (COO)

Sure. This is Brad again. Yeah, a lot of it, we expanded our geographic area as well. Part of the organic growth strategy would be we go get jobs in other markets where we generally aren't participating. We build a backlog. Once we have settled, we have employees and installers in that area, we're able to go and open an office. That's sort of how we have our strategy set up right now. In addition, we are looking at other markets throughout the country that we feel would be a good fit to organically grow there as well. Obviously, of course, acquisitions as well.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Our ability to flex both in the heavy commercial business, the light commercial business, all of the install businesses, our ability to flex up or down is very significant. I mean, you know, obviously, we wouldn't disclose individual branch results, but there are some branches in Texas and Florida that have had, you know, pretty significant sales declines, over the course of the year, and particularly in the fourth quarter, but they have maintained their margins, right? That speaks dramatically to the heavy variable cost structure of the business and importantly, the manager's ability to manage effectively, right?

One of the things that we believe, structurally we benefit from is the highly variable compensation within the organization, and particularly within the branch managers, that provides a powerful incentive for them to manage the cost structure, whether that's managing it up or down, based upon, you know, the volumes that they're seeing.

Mike Dahl (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Great. Very helpful. Thank you.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Ken Zener with Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.

Ken Zener (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning, everybody.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Morning, Ken.

Ken Zener (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Again, perhaps even more pronounced this quarter, given your gross margin. The production builder versus your other bucket, right, has been affecting mix. You talked about margins, right, with customer mix. I think that's the same thing. Since you're disclosing so much, Michael, in terms of gross margin from commercial under it up in res, is there a way for you to bucket the growth rates you're seeing in, or the different rate of change within your production bucket versus your other regional bucket?

Michael Miller (CFO)

Yeah, this is the way that I would-.

Ken Zener (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

The magnitude is pretty good. I believe you said, you know, the regional, you see flat or up, if I heard you correctly. You might have said that. Just any comments would be helpful.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Yeah. If we look at it on a full year basis, we look at, you know, the private, you know, regional builders, you know, basically our business with them in the year was flat. If we look at our business with the production builders, when we say production builders, we mean the public builders, right?

Ken Zener (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Right.

Michael Miller (CFO)

We can use them, and talk about them in a different way because their information is public, right? When we're talking about sales with them, we're talking about, again, the public builders, not even a big private builder like David Weekley Homes.

Ken Zener (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Right.

Michael Miller (CFO)

From the public's perspective, if we look at their home building revenue, right, for the full year, it declined around 6%, and our revenue with them was down around 6%, which is exactly what you would expect. But that, again, was more than offset with the positive, you know, flat to positive growth that we had with the private builders. We feel that we're doing exactly what we're supposed to be doing. We're maintaining share with the publics, the production builders, you know, and working closely with them to not just maintain share, but maintain price and maintain profitability, and to be there and to be able to support them when there's the inflection.

At the same time, leaning in and focusing very hard on our, you know, geographic weightings and our, you know, customers that are either growing or are flat. The team is doing an excellent job of identifying where the opportunity is and working hard to maximize the benefits with that.

Ken Zener (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Really appreciated, those comments. In regards to weather, which isn't something that historically, I think, is such a big deal. The seasonality, Q1 from Q4, it's been kind of all over the place, but if it's historically down, you know, call it mid-single digits...

Michael Miller (CFO)

Yeah.

Ken Zener (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

It sounds like you're expecting worse seasonality just because of the weather patterns we've had. Is that correct?

Michael Miller (CFO)

Correct.

Ken Zener (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you very much.

Michael Miller (CFO)

All right.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Keith Hughes with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Keith Hughes (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. A question about multi-family. I've seen the government data, too. It shows a profound rebound in multi-family. Are we actually seeing that kind of boots on the ground? Is it that good, or is it more just a bottoming going on?

Michael Miller (CFO)

Yeah, Keith, that's a great question, and I'm really glad you brought it up because we wanted to talk about it. We believe, based on this is at a macro level, based on the information from the Census Bureau, you know, that was delayed a little bit, but that recently came out, that multi-family cycle times have basically normalized to kind of pre-COVID, pre-supply side disruptions. You know, that was really driven by the fact that for the full year, multi-family starts were up, you know, like 18% and units under construction were down 13%. We believe that the multi-family market is coming into, if you will, equilibrium. There'll still be some headwinds, I think in the first half of, I don't think I know, in the first half of this year. Our team has done.

You know, as much as we sing the praises of the heavy commercial business, the reality is that multi-family team across the country, and particularly CQ, we call out all the time, have done an incredible job of, you know, just outperforming dramatically the market opportunity that exists there. We have a lot of confidence in their ability to continue to do that. I mean, their backlogs are growing, and they're doing a great job of increasing the complementary product penetration within multi-family.

Yeah, I mean, based on the starts for 2025, coming into 2026, and recognizing that the cycle time for multi-family is much longer than it is for single-family, you know, we think that bodes well for, you know, full year 2026 on the multi-family side, especially given the easy comps that all of us in the industry are going to be facing as it relates to multi-family. I would say, too, just because we're talking about cycle times, on the single-family side, you know, cycle times are probably the best they've ever been. I think, you know, a lot of the big production builders have talked about how efficient their cycle times are currently.

Again, building on some of the comments that we made earlier, when we, again, look at the business, the only part of the business that we were not, you know, really confident in is the, you know, single-family production builder business. Those cycle times are so tight at the entry level, as soon as there is an inflection, you know, the inflection to our install time is going to be very short. We're going to feel it very quickly, and we'll, you know, scale up for it very quickly, unlike multi-family, right? Because the bid and, you know, book time on a project to when we actually do the install can be 12 months-18 months, right? You know, this single-family inflection on the entry-level production builder side, you know, can be pretty meaningful.

It will be meaningful when it happens. We just don't know when it's going to happen.

Keith Hughes (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, great. Very complete answer. Thank you.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Collin Verron with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Collin Verron (Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. I was just hoping you could talk about IBP single-family branch sales growth relative to the national market in the fourth quarter, just how and why that might have changed from sort of how IBP performed versus the market in Q2 and Q3.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Well, we continue to perform sort of above the market opportunity, I would say. I mean, clearly, and we've talked about this for the past several quarters, we clearly benefit from our regional weighting, towards the Midwest and the Northeast. I mean, when we look at our single-family revenue and we look at our market share by Census region, our largest, highest market share is clearly in the Midwest. And as I think, pretty much everybody knows, the Midwest has been doing fairly well on a relative basis to the rest of the country. We feel good about the mix that we have. As I think we've said a couple of times, I mean, we're positioned very well with the production builders, entry-level builders, once the inflection is there.

until that happens, you know, we're continuing to lean in on our, you know, private and semi-custom, custom builders and to kind of work with the advantages, inherent advantages we have from our regional diversification.

Collin Verron (Equity Research Analyst)

Great. That, that's helpful color. Then just really quickly on the commercial performance, I believe you characterized the backlog as healthy, but I'm just curious if there's any more finer points you can put on sort of what you're seeing in the backlog as you in the early parts of 2026 year and how much visibility that really gives you.

Michael Miller (CFO)

It's very healthy. We feel very good about the business. I mean, there's right now, it's just, it's working incredibly well. To be honest with you, since Brad's here, you know, the team deserves a tremendous amount of the credit, but the leadership that Brad has brought to that team has been phenomenal.

Jeff Edwards (Chairman and CEO)

Absolutely.

Michael Miller (CFO)

They've really stepped up. I mean, it's just, it's so impressive how well they've stepped up. It's just, you know, it really, it makes us feel, very proud.

Collin Verron (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you, and, good luck.

Michael Miller (CFO)

Thanks. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. A reminder to all the participants that you may press star and one to ask a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of question and answer session. I would now like to turn the floor over to Jeff Edwards for closing comments.

Jeff Edwards (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you for your questions. I look forward to our next quarterly call. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This concludes our today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.