Independent Bank Group - Q3 2021
October 26, 2021
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Greetings, and welcome to the Independent Bank Group third quarter 2021 earnings call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Paul Langdale, Executive Vice President, Corporate Development and Strategy. Thank you. You may begin.
Paul Langdale (EVP of Corporate Development and Strategy)
Good morning, everyone. I am Paul Langdale, Executive Vice President of Corporate Development and Strategy for Independent Bank Group, and I would like to welcome you to the Independent Bank Group third quarter 2021 earnings call. We appreciate you joining us. The related earnings press release and the slide presentation can be accessed on our website at ibtx.com. I would like to remind you that remarks made today may include forward-looking statements. Those statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual and expected results to differ. We intend such statements to be covered by safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements. Please see page five of the text in the release or page two of the slide presentation for our safe harbor statement. All comments made during today's call are subject to that statement.
Please note that if we give guidance about future results, that guidance is a statement of management's beliefs at the time the statement is made, and we assume no obligation to publicly update guidance. In this call, we will discuss a number of financial measures considered to be non-GAAP under the SEC's rules. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our release. I am joined this morning by David Brooks, our Chairman and CEO, Dan Brooks, our Vice Chairman, and Michelle Hickox, Executive Vice President and CFO. At the end of the remarks, David will open the call to questions. With that, I'll turn it over to David.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Paul. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining the call today. For the third quarter, we reported EPS of $1.21 per share, group tangible book value $34.79 per share, and maintained healthy asset quality with net charge-offs near zero for the quarter. We are pleased to see the continuation of loan growth at about 5% for the quarter, which was consistent with our expectations of a slower summer being followed by accelerating demand into the fall. Likewise, deposit growth remained strong at 12.1% annualized for the quarter, further bolstering our liquidity position and increasing our optionality in managing the funding costs. During the quarter, we also repurchased a total of 217,772 shares of our common stock at an average price of $69.80 per share.
This is consistent with our long-standing commitment to return capital and deliver returns to our shareholders. With that overview, I'll now turn the call over to Michelle for more detail on the operating results for the quarter.
Michelle Hickox (EVP and CFO)
Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. Note that slide 6 shows selected financial data for the quarter. Our third quarter adjusted net income was $52.6 million or $1.22 per diluted share, compared with $59.6 million or $1.38 per diluted share for the third quarter last year, and $58.2 million or $1.35 per diluted share for the linked quarter. Net interest income was $128.6 million in the third quarter, compared to $132 million in the third quarter last year, and down slightly from $129.3 million in the linked quarter. Accretion income was down $1.2 million from the linked quarter and $3.2 million from the prior year and totaled $4 million in Q3.
PPP fees were also lower at $4 million in Q3 versus $5.1 million in Q2. These decreases were partially offset by interest income on growth in the securities portfolio and interest-bearing cash. There are approximately $6.5 million of deferred PPP fees remaining to be recognized, and we expect 75% of that will be recognized in Q4. The NIM excluding accretion was 2.91%, down 11 basis points from the linked quarter. The decrease is primarily due to continued increases in liquidity, which impacted the margin by 7 basis points. Total non-interest income was $16.9 million for the third quarter, an increase of $970,000 compared to the linked quarter. The increase in non-interest income over the linked quarter is primarily due to an increase of $745,000 in mortgage banking revenue.
Non-interest expense totaled $80.6 million for the third quarter, an increase of $2.6 million over the linked quarter. This was driven by increases of $2.7 million in salary and benefit expense. This quarter includes unusually high expense for senior staff signing bonuses as well as bonuses paid to employees that have leaned in on PPP. Contract labor increased $550 thousand from Q2 due to the initiation of several infrastructure projects. In addition, deferred loan costs were down $890 thousand from Q2. As loan volume picks up, we would expect this to return to a normal run rate. Expenses related to PPP forgiveness continued to impact the non-interest expense run rate and totaled $2.1 million in Q3, including consulting, contract labor, and bonuses.
PPP expenses should decrease significantly in Q4, with only a small impact expected in 2022. Slide 19 shows our deposit mix and cost. Total deposits were $15.5 billion as of quarter end, with total non-interest-bearing deposits up by $279.1 million from the linked quarter and $726.4 million from the third quarter of 2020. Interest-bearing deposit costs decreased from 45 basis points in Q2 to 40 basis points in Q3. With the sustained growth in our core deposits, we continue to evaluate and pursue opportunities to optimize our funding costs where appropriate. Capital ratios are presented on slide 21. In the third quarter, the company's consolidated capital ratios remained strong with a Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.06% and a total capital ratio of 13.64%.
As David mentioned, we repurchased 15.2 million, or about 218,000 shares of our common stock during the quarter, in addition to the redemption of a $40 million tranche of 5.75% subordinated debt. That concludes my comments this morning, so I will turn it over to Dan to discuss the loan portfolio.
Dan Brooks (Vice Chairman)
Thanks, Michelle. Overall loans held for investment, excluding mortgage warehouse purchase loans, were $11.5 billion at quarter end, compared to $11.6 billion in the linked quarter. Excluding the impact of PPP loans, core loans held for investment increased by $129.7 million over the linked quarter. Loan growth continues to be driven by broad-based relationship lending to our customers across Texas and Colorado. PPP loans on balance sheet totaled $243.9 million at quarter end, down from $490.5 million in the linked quarter. Average mortgage warehouse purchase loans decreased slightly to $838.5 million for the quarter, but remained near the second quarter average balance of $850.5 million. Credit quality metrics continue to remain strong overall.
Total non-performing assets increased to $82.8 million or 0.44% of total assets at quarter end, which is due primarily to the addition of two commercial relationships totaling $17.8 million and one commercial real estate loan totaling $11.7 million. There were nearly zero net charge-offs for the third quarter. At September 30, 2021, the allowance for credit losses on loans is $150.3 million or 1.34% of loans held for investment, excluding PPP and mortgage warehouse loans. These are all the comments I have related to the loan portfolio this morning. With that, I'll turn it back over to David.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Dan. We remain encouraged by the loan growth prospects into the fourth quarter, and our pipelines continue to be supported by strong demand from relationship borrowers across our footprint. We are also encouraged by the momentum of building from the new hires we have made over the past year, especially when it comes to growing our middle market C&I business. In addition to this organic growth trajectory, we are continuing to invest in our infrastructure to ensure we are well-positioned to capitalize on strategic M&A opportunities when they present themselves. We have expanded our executive leadership team to include John Turpin as Chief Risk Officer, and we're pleased to announce promotion of Michael Hobbs to President and Chief Operating Officer. These additions deepen our executive leadership team in preparation for continued growth into the future.
The Texas and Colorado economies remain two of the most attractive markets in the country, and our teams of bankers continue their disciplined approach of winning new business and expanding existing relationships each day. I'm grateful to all our employees for their tireless dedication to our customers and communities, and I remain excited for the opportunities we see on the road ahead. Thank you for taking the time to join us today. We'll now open the line to questions. Operator?
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for your questions. Our first questions come from the line of Michael Young with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your questions.
Michael Young (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, everyone.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning, Michael.
Michael Young (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
I wanted to just start off on the loan growth side. You know, you mentioned that summer was a little slower, but I'm curious what you're seeing now as we kind of head into the fall and, you know, would you expect higher growth in the fourth quarter to kind of get you to that high single digit level that you had talked about maybe in the back half? Just any updated thoughts or color around pipeline, all of that would be helpful.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Sure. I think if you look at our second quarter growth, Michael, at around 12, this quarter around 5, that was production was pretty close in the third quarter to what it was in the second quarter. But we had a pretty significant pickup in pay downs. Again, that's just you know happens, cyclical. Again, it's hard to predict. But that said, the pipeline looks really good for the fourth quarter. So if we've grown 17% the last two quarters, you know, which averages what, 8.5, then you know I think something like that, 8% or so is what we're expecting. You know, then depending on the payoff levels, you know, it could vary a little from there.
We're still thinking high single digits in the fourth quarter, which would get us for 2, 3, and 4 on average at 8% or better.
Michael Young (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, thanks, David. That's helpful. Maybe one for Michelle, just on expenses. You know, you called out the higher PPP related expenses and then some of the one-time, you know, senior management moves during the quarter. Should we expect, you know, some of that $2.2 million-$2.5 million or so to come back out, so we're closer to, you know, maybe $78 million-$78.5 million run rate from here?
Michelle Hickox (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, I think in the fourth quarter, Michael, we're gonna have about $1.3 million of PPP expenses come out of the run rate. We did have unusually high bonus expense related to some senior positions we added. I wouldn't say pull that out at this point just because we are continuing to add people in the end of the year. You know, it makes it a little more difficult to bring people on without paying those signing bonuses. I think I would stick closer to $79 million for fourth quarter.
Michael Young (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, great. Thanks. I'll hop back.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Michael.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Bradley Milsaps with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.
Bradley Milsaps (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, good morning, Brad.
Bradley Milsaps (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
David or Dan, I was just curious if you guys could talk about the new loans that are coming on the books, kind of, you know, what rates you're seeing in terms of new loan generation. Then maybe as a follow-up from Michelle, you know, if we were to get an increase, you know, in the federal funds rate, you know, later next year, what do you think IBTX's leverage would be to, you know, 25, 50, 75 basis points higher federal funds rate in terms of the margin?
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Brad, this is David. Let me start out saying that one of the, you know, one of our takeaways from the quarter was that the pricing pressure on the new loans coming on was a little more significant than we felt like than what we'd really seen earlier in the year. That affected, you know, our yields a little more than we expected as well. We're seeing, you know, things in, you know, anywhere from, you know, 3.5%-4% as a broad range.
You know, whereas I felt like earlier in the year, on balance, we were booking loans in the upper threes, and I felt like, you know, we were down 10-20 basis points from that of what, you know, the book that we were putting on in the third quarter. Dan can give any, you know, additional color there, but.
Dan Brooks (Vice Chairman)
No. Yeah, I don't have any additional color to add on that, Dave.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Okay. That's kind of what I think on the loan yields, Brad, just a little tougher sledding and maybe a little more headwind there than we'd expected. Michelle.
Michelle Hickox (EVP and CFO)
I think as it relates to your question about NIM, Brad, the real question is, with all the liquidity in the market, you know, how much Fed funds increase is gonna impact longer-term rates. I'm not sure. You know, we are currently more asset sensitive than we have been since I've been here, maybe the history of the bank. We will benefit from a Fed funds increase. But I'm really not sure how much that will impact longer-term rates, at least in the next year, just given the liquidity in the market.
Bradley Milsaps (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Michelle, that's helpful. Would you anticipate, you know, with long rates up a bit here, you guys getting more aggressive and adding to the bond portfolio with some of your liquidity that you've got? I mean, I think on average, it was approaching $3 billion in the quarter.
Michelle Hickox (EVP and CFO)
We expect it to be over $2 billion by the end of this year. We continue to put money in the bond portfolio, especially considering that we continue to see deposits come in and liquidity is growing on our balance sheet. I think we will continue to do that into 2022, as long as it makes sense. You know, to offset loan growth, it really doesn't make sense to leave that money sitting at Fed earning 8 basis points. I guess I'm more convinced now that the liquidity is gonna stick around maybe longer than I thought a year ago.
Bradley Milsaps (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
To be clear, you expect liquidity to be closer to $2 billion or the bond portfolio to be closer to $2 billion?
Michelle Hickox (EVP and CFO)
The bond portfolio will be a little over $2 billion at the end of the year, and then I expect that we'll continue to grow it through 2022 relative to the balance sheet.
Bradley Milsaps (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Got it. Helpful. Okay. Just final question from me. Just curious if Dan could offer any more color on the three loans that went to nonaccrual this quarter. Just, you know, any sense for, you know, loan to values there? Any kind of theme? Just any other color that might, you know, give us a sense of kind of how you guys are thinking about, you know, maybe loss rates or resolution there.
Dan Brooks (Vice Chairman)
Yeah, I think, Brad, in the normal course of resolving credits, you know, some cases you'll have a payoff and others you'll see an upgrade. In some cases, they'll actually migrate into the nonaccrual category because they're a longer resolution. I would say the credits that migrated in the third quarter were not unusual in any regard, with material equity in them. Our expectation is that there would not be any loss exposure that's not accounted for in CECL. You know, notably, those loans were already on the classified loan list. In total, when you take all of the nonaccruals, that number remains at a low level, really.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brady Gailey with KBW. Please proceed with your questions.
Brady Gailey (Managing Director)
Hey, thank you. Good morning, guys.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning, Brady.
Brady Gailey (Managing Director)
I just wanted to start on the buyback. It was good to see y'all be a little active there in the quarter. You know, you bought it back at basically 2x tangible book value. I know the stock is higher than that today. How do you think about continued buybacks from here?
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Brady, we're going to, you know, continue to look for opportunities to buy our stock back. You know, given that the M&A activity has been slower than we expected, given that, you know, we continue to accumulate capital more quickly than, you know, we're able to grow the bank, if you will, or more quickly than we need to support the growth of the bank, is the right way to say that. You know, we're gonna continue to do that. We have our board meeting later in the week, so we're not, you know, the board will decide the dividend later in the week. We're gonna continue to look at opportunities to give back, and we're gonna continue to be active and opportunistic and, you know, just depending on how the stock's trading.
Brady Gailey (Managing Director)
Yep, all right. On the energy front, I know energy lending is not a big piece of what you guys do, and it's still only 2% of loans. You know, it is up, I don't know, $80 million in the last couple quarters. It's gone from, you know, $200 million to $240 million and now to $280 million. You know, should we think about the energy portfolio kind of continuing to expand at a pretty nice clip here?
Dan Brooks (Vice Chairman)
I think Brady, this is Dan. I would view that as just a continuation of the efforts that we've applied with our team that was added a couple years ago, that came out of one of our peer banks. They've had opportunity really to get engaged in significant great credits that have afforded us the opportunity to be a part of those. I think we'll continue to see some growth in there. I don't think it'll be outsized. I think it'll be comparable to what we've seen, as those opportunities present themselves to us. There will be some growth. I don't think I would consider that to be any acceleration of that growth.
Brady Gailey (Managing Director)
Okay. Then finally for me, David, just on M&A. You know, you just mentioned it's been a little slower than maybe you guys had thought. You know, we saw a big splash of a deal with Johnny Allison buying Happy, you know, which I thought may have been a good deal for y'all, just given all the excess funding that could have brought to Independent. But maybe just a general update on M&A. Why do you think it's been slower? And, you know, do you guys remain active in chasing targets?
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
I would say it this way, Brady. We remain active in engaging relationships with smaller banks that we admire, that are in our footprint, that are, you know, in higher growth markets. That's, you know, one of the challenges. If you acquire a large addition to your balance sheet, you know, footprint that's not in a growth market, then you really, I think, limit your growth opportunities going forward. Liquidity is important. Core deposits are, you know, critically important. You know, as Michelle was mentioning, we, you know, we think we felt like we were being aggressive this year in, you know, adding to our bond portfolio. Our loan growth has returned to more historic levels, and we're still, you know, sitting on $3 billion of liquidity.
You know, we came into the year hoping that we could deploy that and get that down to a lesser number. It hasn't happened. That, you know, gives us an opportunity as well to think about the funding side of the balance sheet and the things we can do to improve our cost of funds. So I would, you know. Yes, certainly acquisitions have been a part of our track record. We continue to be interested in growing.
Our focus has been, as we've talked about this morning, on organic growth, on really building an infrastructure, making sure that we position, you know, the company to be in great shape for whenever that next opportunity comes along. That's really been our focus and a focus of our time and of our non-interest expenses.
Brady Gailey (Managing Director)
Okay. Got it. Thanks, guys.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Brady.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Brett Rabatin with Hovde Group. Please proceed with your question.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, Brett.
Brett Rabatin (Director of Research)
Hey, good morning, David and Michelle.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning.
Brett Rabatin (Director of Research)
Wanted to go back to the securities portfolio question, Michelle, and just talking about you mentioned that it would be $2 billion by the end of the year. Was curious what you had bought during 3Q, and then what you're looking at, and how you think that might impact the bond portfolio yield. Then, you know, kind of as it relates to that, it would seem like your margin would actually potentially move up if you're deploying, you know, excess liquidity that's yielding 10 basis points to something north of 1%. You know, any thoughts on that as well?
Michelle Hickox (EVP and CFO)
That's true, if we can finally get ahead of the liquidity, right? Our bond portfolio is very conservative, Brett. We continue to buy mortgage-backed agencies. I think we even bought some treasuries this quarter. Generally, those yields have been averaging 1.30. You know, so I think the current yield in our portfolio is just a little less than 2%, so it has trended down this year. As you say, it is a lot better than the eight basis points that we can earn at Fed.
Brett Rabatin (Director of Research)
Okay. Any thoughts on the margin potentially at least having, you know, some offset to lower loan yield production going forward?
Michelle Hickox (EVP and CFO)
You know, I've kind of gotten out of the business of predicting the margin just because.
Brett Rabatin (Director of Research)
Yeah.
Michelle Hickox (EVP and CFO)
It's maybe wrong all year long, you know, and that's continued to push it down. As David said, you know, we're continuing to look at ways that we could possibly continue to push our cost of funds down. If we could redeploy the liquidity even into the investment portfolio, that would be an offset, or, you know, even better would be deploying it into loans. I think there is some upside, but, you know, I'm not gonna predict that the margin is going to increase at this point.
Brett Rabatin (Director of Research)
Yeah, fair enough. I know it's been hard to predict with the liquidity rising. The other thing-
Michelle Hickox (EVP and CFO)
I would just.
Brett Rabatin (Director of Research)
I'm sorry. Go ahead, Michelle.
Michelle Hickox (EVP and CFO)
What I would continue to emphasize is that we are just looking at ways to grow, rather than focusing on margin, looking at ways to grow net interest income, right?
Brett Rabatin (Director of Research)
Okay.
Michelle Hickox (EVP and CFO)
Letting the margin work itself out.
Brett Rabatin (Director of Research)
Okay. And then David, you gave an outlook for the fourth quarter around loan growth, and I guess one of the things I was curious about was the increase in the unfunded commitment reserve, 6.1 versus 1.7 in the prior quarter for construction and energy. I'm curious, as we think about, you know, 2022, it would seem like construction could be a category that grows. You know, any thoughts on where the portfolio might be growing more from here? Is it construction? Is it now you've been wanting to grow C&I. What are the buckets that you think will have more growth as we go into next year?
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
You know, my suspicion, Brett, is that we're gonna see a continued balance in the growth that we're seeing. There's really not one area that we're focused on where we're seeing more opportunities. There's certainly a lot of construction going on in, you know, Denver and Colorado Front Range and all our Texas markets, by virtue, if you drive around, there are a lot of cranes and things. So construction is a part of what we're seeing, but I don't think of it as being dominant. I'd say the biggest change, if there is a change in our mix, is that C&I is really picking up and kicking in.
The people we've hired, the great teams that we've hired across Texas and adding to our team in Colorado are really getting some traction, and we expect that to be a big part of what we see in, you know, fourth quarter and really in 2022 and beyond, strong growth there. You know really just what we've always done well, which is, you know, strong real estate and small business lending and medical practice lending and all those things that, you know, that we've done well in the real estate really across the board. McKinney, because of our airport here, as an example, we're seeing tremendous industrial growth out by the airport.
A new Amazon facility there and people opting to bring their goods through McKinney's airport as opposed to DFW or Love Field. Those are just some of the, you know, a little bit of color behind what we're seeing, but, you know, good balance across the portfolio and growth.
Brett Rabatin (Director of Research)
Okay. Appreciate the color there. Then maybe just the last thing around the mortgage warehouse. I would assume that seasonality plays its usual impact in the fourth quarter. You know, any sense of the magnitude that you're looking at in terms of how that might play out?
Michelle Hickox (EVP and CFO)
You know, you're right. With seasonality, you could see their average balances drop a bit, but I think they've done a good job of adding some new customers. You know, we still think that $800 million average is good for this quarter.
Brett Rabatin (Director of Research)
Okay. Great. Appreciate all the color.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Brett.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from the line of Matt Olney with Stephens. Please proceed with your questions.
Matt Olney (Managing Director)
Hey, good morning. Thanks, guys. I wanted just to stick on the mortgage warehouse discussion. David, you mentioned some comments about loan yield pressure in the third quarter versus the first half of the year. I assume that was more on traditional commercial loans. If so, any comments about the warehouse yield pressure? Thanks.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, my comments were more based upon our traditional commercial loan strategy. I do think there's been a lot of competition in the mortgage warehouse. Michelle, do you have a handle on their yields compared, you know?
Michelle Hickox (EVP and CFO)
Yeah. I think they've come down a bit, from the beginning of the year, but I don't know that it's that significant.
Matt Olney (Managing Director)
Okay. Then, Michelle, circling back to the commentary about the investment securities portfolio and maybe adding some more balance in the fourth quarter. I think right now investment securities are around 10% of earning assets. Any more color as far as the tolerance of where this could go as we move into 2022?
Michelle Hickox (EVP and CFO)
Yeah. You know, we don't really have a limit. I think historically, that balance has run around 7% of our balance sheet just because we've had such a high loan to deposit ratio. You know, we'll continue to evaluate that, Matt, and put any excess liquidity in there to offset the loan growth. You know, it could grow to $2.5 billion by the end of next year, but really we'll evaluate that as the year goes along.
Matt Olney (Managing Director)
Yep. Understood. Thank you. I guess my last question's around the allowance ratio. I think we're now at 1.34 once I strip out the warehouse and PPP. Just trying to appreciate where this could go. I think the original CECL adoption allowance was around 1.37-ish, but that did include maybe a PCD mark. How should we think about that reserve ratio over the next few quarters?
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. Matt, our take on it, as we've been saying is that, you know, we'll grow into it. Our asset quality trends, Dan can share some of that here in a moment, but our asset quality trends and I think will be a tailwind. The, you know, the economic factors that go into the model are gonna be a tailwind, we think in 2022. You know, as we look out at the loan growth rates we're looking at with the information we have today, you know, we're not expecting to take a material loan loss provision even in 2022. You know, depending on the assumption for loan growth, we think loan growth in 2022 is 7%-8%, you know, core loan growth in 2022.
When we factor all that out, you know, the loan loss reserve certainly will, or the ratio, will drift down. Dan, any comments you've got on the tailwinds and? You know, we certainly don't think we're gonna need, you know, 1.34, and so we're gonna be willing to let that drift down. We haven't had talks about a lower limit, but obviously we're just gonna do work, the CECL model and comply with whatever the results are as all the banks are doing. Dan, any comments on that or?
Dan Brooks (Vice Chairman)
Yeah, I would just add, I think as David said, the growth will naturally bring that down some, but we don't expect it to change a great deal in the course of the next year. I did wanna circle back on the asset quality side. I think the bigger picture here, beyond a couple of credits that were downgraded to non-performing in the quarter is the strength of asset quality here overall remains very strong. We indicated in 2020 mid-year that we expected the portfolio to perform very well during the course of the recession. We did expect some grade migration that would be attributable to the deferrals and pandemic. That is in fact what we saw in 2020.
Earlier this year, we also said that we expected improvement in grades in the back half of this year, and that is exactly what we've seen. Criticized and classified loans have steadily declined each of the last three quarters from payoffs and upgrades with more in process for the next few quarters. In fact, we had a 15% decrease in criticized loans in Q3 alone. Overall, the non-accrual portfolio, we still expect several of those to resolve in the next few quarters with either no loss or any potential loss exposure already accounted for in the CECL reserve. As David indicated, we don't expect any material change or provisions to be made, especially with the tailwinds of improving economy.
Matt Olney (Managing Director)
Okay, great. Thanks, guys.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Matt.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Brett Rabatin with Hovde Group. Please proceed with your questions.
Brett Rabatin (Director of Research)
Hey, David. I just had one follow-up around talent, and you talked about doing some hiring, obviously at the senior management level and doing some infrastructure build. Can you maybe give us any color on how many lenders you've added this quarter or this year relative to the existing production base and how you think about that going forward as well?
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
You know, Brett, I actually don't have an updated number. There's been, you know, activity and continuing activity weekly on that. We've hired a material number of new middle market C&I lenders. Our team in Texas has expanded, continues to expand, and we've added to our teams, you know, in Houston, in Dallas-Fort Worth, in Denver, Colorado, a number of new team members there as well. I am sorry I don't have a number. We can get back to you, Brett, exactly what that, what our net, what our gross hires and then what our net hires are for the year.
It's material and is part of the reason why we're continuing to be encouraged about our growth even as we focus on the infrastructure and making sure that we, you know, have our back office in order as well.
Brett Rabatin (Director of Research)
Okay. Thanks for that, David.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Okay. Thanks, Brett.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Michael Young with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your questions.
Michael Young (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, thanks for the follow-up. Just wanted to ask on the residential real estate portfolio. You know, that's been sort of a trailing or running off here over the last, you know, year, maybe plus a little bit. Any, you know, just general thoughts on, you know, is that just a duration risk kind of concern? Or could we expect that book to sort of flatten out or start to grow at any point in 2022? Just thoughts around that would be helpful.
Dan Brooks (Vice Chairman)
I'll take that one, Michael. This is Dan. As you would expect with the rates down, we certainly saw some refinances out, which is why I think you've seen it decrease somewhat there. On the other side, we would expect to continue to book those as we have historically. I think the overall balance of that portfolio should remain pretty flat.
As we move forward in the normal course, because of us providing mortgages to our customers that we know, they will acquire and then ultimately, from time to time, sell them or refinance them. The refinances may slow, but I expect that we won't see a big change in that portfolio balance as we move forward. There's been a little bit of headwind, Michael, in that particular portfolio. We had, when we purchased Guaranty Bancorp in Colorado, they had a relationship with a mortgage company there that they had taken a lot of larger single-family loans and, you know, we didn't continue that relationship because we have our own mortgage, you know, entity.
A lot of those loans, as, you know, time went by, have refinanced out, and so that creates some headwind in that portfolio. I think, as Dan said, we expect it to level out and, you know, certainly we'll be, you know, opportunistic to look for ways to grow it a little bit. That's not gonna be, you know, a big part of our growth engine, but we also don't expect to see a lot of headwind.
Michael Young (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, really helpful. Michelle, just as I look at expenses for 2022, you know, kind of know the normal cadence and kinda growth rate that IBTX has experienced in the past, but obviously inflation, you know, potentially is a risk factor to the expense picture. Have you guys done any early work on that or any, you know, thoughts, high level, just kind of on what that could mean for IBTX?
Michelle Hickox (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, we're actually in the process of finalizing our budget for next year right now. I think, for your purposes, a 3% over total for the year 2021 expenses is probably a good place to start.
Michael Young (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, great. Thanks. I appreciate the follow-ups.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Mike.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to David Brooks for any closing remarks.
David Brooks (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you. Appreciate your time this morning, and look forward to getting back out on the road and this fall and particularly next spring, and look forward to seeing you sitting down around a table somewhere. Thanks for your time.
Operator (participant)
Thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Have a great day.