Executive Summary

Q3 2025 delivered steady topline and strong profitability: net revenues $2.411B (+3% y/y), GAAP EPS $1.42 (+25% y/y), and adjusted EPS $1.71 (+10% y/y) as operating margin reached 49% (59% adjusted) .
Against S&P Global consensus, ICE posted a clear EPS beat and a slight revenue miss: Adjusted (Primary) EPS $1.71 vs $1.61 est. (beat), Net revenues $2.411B vs $2.414B est. (slight miss)*.
Segment mix was resilient: Exchanges net revenues $1.265B (72% margin), Fixed Income & Data Services $618M (39% margin), Mortgage Technology $528M (4% margin GAAP; 42% adjusted) .
FY/4Q guidance focused on cost discipline and below-the-line headwinds: FY25 GAAP opex $4.99–$5.00B; 4Q25 adj. opex $1.005–$1.015B; 4Q25 non-op expense $180–$185M; FY25 tax rate 23–25%; 4Q25 shares 569–575M .
Management highlighted non-recurring benefits (c.$15M) aiding Q3 opex, a favorable tax audit settlement, and incremental 4Q interest expense tied to the Polymarket investment—key drivers for near‑term estimate recalibration .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Adjusted EPS outperformed consensus ($1.71 vs $1.61 est.) on cost control and a lower adjusted tax rate (~21% aided by audit settlements) despite modest revenue softness* .
Data-driven, subscription engines continued to compound: recurring revenues rose to $1.275B (+5% y/y), with Exchange data +9% and Fixed Income & Data Services recurring +7% .
Energy and rate market positioning remains powerful; management cited record energy open interest in October (+14% y/y) and strong open interest across futures as a leading indicator of future growth .

What Went Wrong

Revenue was marginally below S&P consensus (–$3M) and off sequentially vs Q2 on lower transaction activity (net) and segment mix; consolidated net revenues $2.411B vs $2.543B in Q2 .
Exchange transaction revenues dipped slightly y/y in Q3 (–1%), and certain one-time audit revenues in Exchange data and a few million dollars in D&NT won’t repeat in Q4, tempering near-term run-rate .
Mortgage Technology recurring saw headwinds from higher than expected inactive loan roll-offs, customers resetting minimums, and Flagstar’s roll-off in Q4; management also noted a small (~0.5 pt recurring revenue) PennyMac impact, but not until 2028 .

Financial Results

Consolidated results by quarter (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Net Revenues ($M)	$2,473	$2,543	$2,411
GAAP Diluted EPS	$1.38	$1.48	$1.42
Adjusted Diluted EPS	$1.72	$1.81	$1.71
Operating Margin (GAAP)	49%	51%	49%
Operating Margin (Adj.)	61%	61%	59%

YoY snapshot (Q3 only)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
Net Revenues ($M)	$2,349	$2,411
GAAP Diluted EPS	$1.14	$1.42
Adjusted Diluted EPS	$1.55	$1.71
Operating Margin (GAAP)	47%	49%
Operating Margin (Adj.)	59%	59%

Actual vs S&P Global Consensus (Q3 2025)

Metric	Actual	Consensus	Outcome
Net Revenues ($M)	$2,411	$2,413.9*	Slight miss
Primary (Adjusted) EPS	$1.71	$1.607*	Beat

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment net revenues and margins

Segment	Q1 2025 Net Rev. ($M)	Q2 2025 Net Rev. ($M)	Q3 2025 Net Rev. ($M)	Q3 2025 Margin
Exchanges	$1,367	$1,415	$1,265	72% GAAP; 73% Adj.
Fixed Income & Data Services	$596	$597	$618	39% GAAP; 45% Adj.
Mortgage Technology	$510	$531	$528	4% GAAP; 42% Adj.

KPIs and mix

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Recurring Revenues ($M)	$1,236	$1,256	$1,275
Transaction Revenues, net ($M)	$1,237	$1,287	$1,136
Adjusted Operating Expenses ($M)	$964	$983	$981

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Fixed Income & Data Services Recurring Revenue Growth	FY 2025	n/a	5%–6%	New
Operating Expenses (GAAP)	FY 2025	n/a	$4.990–$5.000B	New
Operating Expenses (Non‑GAAP)	FY 2025	n/a	$3.933–$3.943B	New
Operating Expenses (GAAP)	4Q 2025	n/a	$1.255–$1.265B	New
Operating Expenses (Non‑GAAP)	4Q 2025	n/a	$1.005–$1.015B	New
Non‑Operating Expense	4Q 2025	n/a	$180–$185M	New
Effective Tax Rate	FY 2025	n/a	23%–25%	New
Weighted Average Diluted Shares	4Q 2025	572–578M (Q3 guide)	569–575M	Tightened lower
Dividend per share	3Q 2025	–	$0.48 (+7% y/y)	Announced 7/31

Notes: Management added qualitative guidance that exchange data growth should track toward the high end of its 4–5% range, while Q4 adjusted opex will step up as Q3’s one-time benefits (~$15M) do not repeat, and non-op expense increases with Polymarket funding .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
AI/Technology initiatives	Used AI across mortgage (DDA, AllRegs/Ask Reggie), desktops; data center investments; focus on workflow automation and end‑to‑end mortgage stack .	Unveiled “ICE Aurora” platform; 95%+ reference data extraction accuracy; Copilot accelerating MSP replatform (UI rewrite by year-end; 30M LOC with ~½ original timeframe); “more with the same” headcount efficiency .	Accelerating deployment and impact
Energy markets	Record energy revenues; strong ADV and OI; Brent/TTF leadership; 8th–9th consecutive record quarters in 1H25 .	OI surge into October: energy OI +14% y/y; volumes up across gas & power; diversified energy platform remains a growth engine .	Sustained strength; OI building
Fixed Income & Data Services	Record revenues; index AUM records ($684B Q1; $743B Q2); D&NT growth up to 7% .	Record revenues; D&NT +10% (one-time a few million won’t repeat); recurring +7%; ICE exploring Treasury clearing; Polymarket data distribution .	Broadening growth vectors
Mortgage Technology	Recurring stable with roll-offs; sales momentum (UWM MSP; 43 Encompass 1H) .	Revenues +4% y/y; 16 Encompass wins; 2 new MSP clients; face Q4 seasonal transaction drop; Flagstar roll-off; minimum resets narrowing vs 2024 .	Mixed near-term; improving pipeline
Regulatory/Legal	Deleveraging, capital returns; NYSE Texas launch .	SEC publication of ICE Clear Credit’s U.S. Treasury clearing application/rulebook; Polymarket strategic investment & data agreement .	Strategic optionality increasing

Management Commentary

“We are pleased to report our third quarter results… In early October, we also announced a strategic investment in Polymarket… expanding our footprint into decentralized prediction markets” — Jeffrey C. Sprecher, Chair & CEO .
“Third quarter adjusted operating expenses totaled $981 million… supported by approximately $15 million in one-time benefits… adjusted tax rate of 21% benefited from prior-year tax audit settlements… expect 4Q tax rate 24%–26%” — Warren Gardiner, CFO .
“We are now taking the next step… through generative and agentic AI under the name of ICE Aurora… achieving over 95% accuracy in extracting reference data… Copilot helped rewrite the entire [MSP] UI by year-end” — Ben Jackson, President .

Q&A Highlights

AI implementation and ROI: ICE expects to “do more with the same” headcount as AI accelerates product delivery and internal efficiency; automation levels vary by workflow risk tolerance .
Mortgage dynamics: Q3 recurring modestly softer from higher inactive loan roll-offs and some lower minimum renewals; active loans ticked up; Flagstar rolls off in 4Q; PennyMac impact ~0.5 pt of recurring revenue growth but not until 2028 .
Polymarket strategy: Focused on non-sports prediction markets and data distribution; strategic interest in 24x7 collateral movement and smart contract architecture; sports not a priority for ICE .
4Q outlook clarifications: Mortgage recurring expected roughly flat q/q with typical seasonal decline in transactions; 4Q adjusted opex guided up as one-offs don’t repeat; non-op expense up on Polymarket CP funding .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 actual vs S&P Global consensus: Adjusted (Primary) EPS $1.71 vs $1.607 est. (beat), Net revenues $2,411M vs $2,413.9M est. (slight miss)*. Drivers include one-time opex/tax benefits (non-recurring), exchange data audit revenue that won't repeat in Q4, and expected higher 4Q non-operating expense tied to Polymarket funding .
Near-term estimate implications: 4Q adjusted opex step-up and higher non-op expense likely weigh on 4Q EPS; exchange data growth toward high end of range helps offset; mortgage recurring stable near Q3 with seasonal transaction downtick and Flagstar roll-off .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Quality of earnings remains high: cost discipline, recurring revenue mix, and data/indices scale delivered a clear EPS beat despite a modest revenue miss .
Exchanges engine robust with future activity signals (open interest) pointing to sustained demand across energy and rates; OI acceleration into October supports 4Q activity setup .
Fixed Income & Data Services compounding: D&NT growth re-accelerating; index AUM at records; potential new growth vector from U.S. Treasury clearing (subject to approval) .
Mortgage Technology near-term choppy but structurally improving: new wins (Encompass/MSP), narrowing minimum reset headwinds vs 2024, and AI-enabled workflow efficiencies underpin medium-term margin and revenue synergy progress .
Model 4Q with higher non-op expense and opex normalization: EPS likely step-down q/q; monitor cadence of non-recurring items and CP-funded Polymarket impact .
Capital returns remain active (Q3: $674M returned; leverage ~2.9x EBITDA), supported by strong cash generation and ongoing buybacks; dividend growth evident (+7% y/y) .
Strategic optionality expanding via AI (ICE Aurora), data center investments, and Polymarket data—supporting medium-term multiple expansion and durable growth narrative .

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary