ICHR Q2 2024 Guides $250M-$300M Quarterly Revenue, Margins Mid-15%
- Sequential Growth Potential: Management indicated a high single‐digit sequential revenue improvement, particularly driven by high-bandwidth memory and foundry logic segments, suggesting a recovery in demand with visible year-over-year acceleration.
- Margin Expansion via Next-Generation Gas Panels: The transition to gas panels with 80% proprietary content is expected to drive significant gross margin improvement, supporting better earnings leverage even at similar revenue levels.
- Strengthened Operating Leverage and Recovery in EUV: The recovery in the EUV business and integration of higher-margin components signal improved operating income, reinforcing the bull case with enhanced profitability prospects.
- Reduced Capital Expenditure by Major Customers: The transcript noted concerns such as Intel’s CapEx guidance being down 17% year-over-year, which could signal a broader pullback in spending from key customers, potentially slowing down market growth for Ichor’s products.
- Delayed Ramp of Next-Generation Gas Panels: Ichor’s next-generation gas panel, with an 80% proprietary content, is set for a multiyear ramp, raising risks of a delayed revenue uplift if widespread adoption doesn’t materialize as anticipated.
- Persisting Customer Inventory and Order Issues: Some discussion pointed to muted surges in the component business and ongoing challenges regarding customer inventory normalization, which may hamper sequential revenue improvements.
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Gross Margin Guidance
Q: Can Q4 gross margins reach mid-15%?
A: Management expects gross margins to hit the mid-15s on similar revenue levels, driven by improved efficiencies and new proprietary products, suggesting a healthy margin expansion. -
Revenue Guidance
Q: Will quarterly revenues hit $250–$300M next year?
A: They foresee a strong market recovery and product integration leading to quarterly revenues in the $250M–$300M range, reflecting robust future demand. -
Incremental Margin Improvement
Q: What extra margins come from new products?
A: The new product mix is expected to yield about $2M of additional flow-through and push margins from roughly 20%–22% to north of 25% for a healthier bottom line. -
Market Focus
Q: Which market shows the strongest future promise?
A: Management noted that high-bandwidth memory is having a more pronounced positive impact compared to foundry logic, fueling sequential growth. -
Silicon Carbide
Q: How is the silicon carbide business performing?
A: Although experiencing a dip into the second half, this segment is poised for a recovery with growth expected between 25% to 50%, as customers resume capacity additions. -
Revenue Mix Margin
Q: How does the new product mix affect margins?
A: Shifting from about 10% internal content to 80% proprietary content is projected to boost margins from roughly 20%–22% to over 25%, enhancing profitability. -
2025 Growth Acceleration
Q: Will growth accelerate in early 2025?
A: While specifics remain early, management is confident in a +15% year-over-year growth for 2025, underscoring a solid long-term outlook. -
EUV Improvement
Q: When will the EUV segment improve?
A: After a modest drop earlier, EUV performance is expected to rebound sequentially, with a stronger second half relative to the front half of the year. -
Intel Impact
Q: Does Intel’s capex pullback affect current outlook?
A: Though Intel’s reduced capex could impact the fourth quarter, management hasn’t observed any significant changes to this quarter’s results or near-term fundamentals. -
NAND WFE Recovery
Q: When will NAND wafer fab recovery begin?
A: Recovery in the NAND wafer fab equipment market is anticipated to start in mid to late 2025, aligning with new capacity additions. -
Inventory Trends
Q: Are customer inventory issues being resolved?
A: There are signs of normalization, with customer ordering patterns returning to normal, although component demand remains somewhat muted. -
Gas Panel Integration
Q: Do new gas panels integrate with existing products?
A: Yes – the new panels incorporate 80% proprietary content while remaining backward compatible by integrating critical existing components into both current and next-generation products. -
Gas Panel Timeline
Q: What is the timeline for gas panel adoption?
A: The ramp-up for new gas panels is expected to occur over a 2- to 3-year period as customers qualify these systems on a case-by-case basis. -
China Revenue
Q: Is the silicon carbide EV business strong in China?
A: Management noted they sell through process manufacturers, so specific region-end use—such as in China—remains unclear from a direct revenue perspective.
Research analysts covering ICHOR HOLDINGS.