ICL Group - Q4 2022
February 15, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ICL Analyst Conference Call. Our presentation today will be followed by a question-and-answer session, at which time, if you wish to ask a question, you'll need to raise your hand using your mobile or desktop application, or press star nine on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. I must advise you that this call is being recorded today. I'd like to hand the call over to our first speaker today, Peggy Reilly Tharp, Vice President of Global Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Peggy Reilly Tharp (VP of Global Investor Relations)
Thank you. Hello, everyone. I'm Peggy Reilly Tharp, Vice President of Global Investor Relations. I'd like to welcome you and thank you for joining us today for our quarterly earnings call. The event is being webcast live on our website at icl-group.com. Earlier today, we filed our reports with the securities authorities and the stock exchanges in the U.S. and in Israel. Those reports, as well as the press release, are available on our website. There will be a replay of the webcast available after the meeting, and a transcript will be available shortly thereafter. The presentation which will be reviewed today was also filed with the securities authorities and is available on our website. Please be sure to review the disclaimer on slide two. Our comments today will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
These statements are based on management's current expectations and are not guarantees of future performance. The company undertakes no obligation to update any financial information discussed on this call at any time. We will begin with a presentation by our CEO, Mr. Raviv Zoller, followed by Mr. Aviram Lahav, our CFO. Following the presentation, we will open the line for the Q&A session. Raviv, please.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Thanks, Peggy, and welcome everyone. Today, we're proud to report record annual results for 2022, with sales of more than $10 billion and EBITDA of more than $4 billion. All three of our Specialty Solutions businesses delivered record performance in 2022 as we benefited from the results of our long-term strategy. We also saw very significant commodity upside as several macro events collided. First, the Ukraine-Russia conflict greatly impacted global agriculture in 2022 and resulted in elevated grain prices, which in turn drove prices higher for crops and livestock. The global grain stock-to-use ratio ended in 2022 at its lowest in more than a decade and is forecasted to remain tight into 2023. Due to global concerns, increases in fertilizer prices accelerated in the first half of 2022 but moderated in the second half.
There was an estimated 5% decline in global fertilizer consumption in 2022. Farmers who skipped treatments will need to reconsider their decision in 2023. Farmer affordability and sentiment improved toward year-end, and as there is rising concern over global food crisis, fertilizer volumes are likely to trend upward in 2023. In December, the Purdue University-Ag Economy Barometer jumped, and the biggest improvement came from farmers' assessment of their current conditions. Farmers were more positive about the future in December and showed improved sentiment regarding their financial conditions. Meanwhile, consumer spending patterns shifted as inflation and interest rates reduced buying power. While the effects varied regionally, they impacted some key end markets for ICL, such as electronics, housing, and automotive. The recent reopening of China will influence developments in the months to come, as will the increased momentum in ESG-related spending.
The electric vehicle revolution remains a bright spot as countries continue to invest and compete in mobility transformation technologies. Supply chain issues eased in recent months, and current trends indicate additional improvement in 2023. Let's turn to ICL's results on slide three, where you can see an overview of our record year, which was capped by a record fourth quarter. In addition to the annual sales and EBITDA achievements I mentioned, we also saw record annual production of more than 4 million tons at the Dead Sea. We delivered record cash flow for the year of $1.3 billion, which was up more than 180%. Operating cash flow for 2022 of more than $2 billion was up 90% versus the prior year.
In 2022, adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.82 was up more than 180%. We also delivered cash directly to our shareholders in 2022 as we declared $1.2 billion in dividends and $0.91 per share for 2022. Importantly, we took advantage of our record year and resolved several outstanding challenges, which Aviram will discuss in more detail later in the presentation. Please turn to slide four, where you can see historical trends for some of our key financial metrics. Clearly, 2022 was a remarkable and somewhat abnormal year, just as 2020 was during COVID. While we appreciate the good fortune we experienced in 2022, we remain focused on our long-term transformation.
We believe our growth trajectory going forward, especially for our Specialties businesses, will be more in line with the longer-term trends seen on this slide. While we do not have control over commodity markets and prices, we do know that our Specialty Solutions provide us with a level of normalcy amidst the external noise. This is the benefit of our strategy, and we look forward to delivering stable and consistent growth over the long term by executing against our recently presented five-year plan. Improving our results will not only be financial in nature. On slide five, you will see that sometimes it is a good thing to report a downward trend. Sustainability remains a critical part of our mission and our future. I'm very pleased to report we have seen significant improvements across the board in the areas of safety and the reduction of GHG emissions.
For safety, our incident rate continued its downward path for the fourth straight year in a row. Going back a bit further to 2018, we have achieved an 18% reduction in GHG emissions since that time, ahead of our stated target calling for a 30% reduction by 2030. Slide six goes into more detail about our substantial year-over-year financial improvement. Throughout 2022, we continued to drive growth in cash flow generation. Notably, I'm pleased we were able to share our record year with all our stakeholders, including the communities where we lived and worked. I'm proud to include this data as well as point out that we managed to keep our overall expenses flat. Please notice that we incorporated some other non-financial metrics we track regularly. On slide seven, there's a similar overview of our fourth quarter results.
We saw a return to more traditional fourth quarter seasonality in 2022, with many of our suppliers and customers also seeing similar trends at year-end. I would now like to begin our segment review with Industrial Products on slide eight. Record annual sales of $1,766 million were up nearly 10%, while record annual EBITDA of $689 million was up nearly 40% year-over-year. We continued to achieve margin expansion as EBITDA margin improved to 39% for the full year and 32% for the fourth quarter.
Fourth quarter sales and EBITDA were down year-over-year as the fourth quarter of 2021 did not experience more traditional seasonality due to an out of the ordinary abundance of mid-COVID demand in the electronics and construction end markets, as well as out of the ordinary production constraints of competitors. Throughout 2022, higher prices helped offset higher raw material costs as Industrial Products maintained its strategic focus on value over volume. As 2022 progressed, end market demand diverged. Weakness in electronics accelerated in the second half of the year as consumers struggled with inflation, while the construction market suffered from both inflation and higher interest rates. As a result, our customers ended 2022 with increased inventory. The oil and gas industry saw significant demand since the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which benefited our clear brine fluids business. Our Specialty minerals business remained stable throughout 2022.
Turning to slide nine in our Phosphate Solutions division, where we reported record annual sales and EBITDA of $3.106 billion and $966 million respectively, with record Specialty sales and EBITDA for both our food and industrial solutions. For 2022, Specialties made up nearly 60% of sales and 45% of EBITDA. We also saw record annual sales and EBITDA for our Phosphate Commodities business and had another record year at our YPH joint venture in China. Throughout 2022, higher prices and demand helped offset significant increases in the prices of raw materials. Another trend for 2022 included the persistent supply chain challenges, which did not ease in the fourth quarter and are expected to linger into 2023.
The big news for Phosphate Specialties in 2022 was when the U.S. Department of Energy awarded ICL $197 million to invest in developing a cathode active materials plant for high-quality LFP batteries. This is part of a new sustainable supply chain for energy storage solutions. On slide 10, you will see our potash results, where annual sales of $3.313 billion were up nearly 90% year-over-year, while EBITDA of nearly $2 billion was up significantly. We benefited from commodity upside in our potash business, but we also maximized our opportunities throughout 2022 and added long-term contracts.
As I previously mentioned, our operations at the Dead Sea delivered record production for 2022 of more than 4 million tons as our team overachieved in terms of operational excellence, and we also saw improvement in our Spanish operations. Our average potash realized price per ton came in at $643 for 2022, which was up more than 90% over 2021. For the fourth quarter, we achieved $564 per ton, which was up 16% or more than $75 versus the fourth quarter of 2021. Our metal magnesium operations delivered record sales and profit as this business, like the rest of ICL, shifted to more long-term contracts and also benefited from higher prices.
Turning to slide 11 in Growing Solutions, which delivered record annual sales of $2.422 billion and EBITDA of $448 million. These results were achieved in part as we successfully integrated our Brazilian acquisitions. Our FertilizerpluS products, which are based on organic Polysulphate, delivered on all fronts: record annual production, sales, and profit. We are pleased to see all of the hard work of this team over the past few years come to fruition. Throughout 2022, our Growing Solutions division introduced multiple sustainable new products, these efforts helped us increase our sales in Brazil and Asia. Nevertheless, EBITDA was lower in the fourth quarter due to a decrease in fertilizer demand during the latter part of 2022.
If you will turn to slide 12, I would like to quickly remind you about the progress we made in the areas of sustainability, innovation, and leadership during 2022. This was an amazing year with an array of new products, third-party recognition, and achievements. I cannot say enough about our team at ICL, constantly working towards the next level, and their efforts do not go overlooked. I would like to draw your attention to slide 13 and our outlook for 2023. For our Industrial Products business, which covers a vast and varied number of end markets, we expect to see a stronger second half of the year. For Phosphate Solutions, we expect to leverage our LFP expansion in St. Louis to build partnerships with some of the premier automotive names in the world.
In our potash business, we expect to see improving affordability benefit both farmers and suppliers. This will extend to our Growing Solutions business, where we plan to continue growing our market share in more diverse end markets. As we formally wrap up 2022, I want to thank the entire ICL family of employees all around the world for their hard work and contributions. While I'm proud of this record year, I'm also very excited about the challenges and opportunities ahead in 2023. I would now like to turn the call over to Aviram.
Aviram Lahav (CFO)
Thank you, Raviv, and to all of you for joining us today. Let us get started on slide 15. While Raviv already addressed some market trends and our outlook, I would like to call out certain macro highlights impacting ICL, our peers, suppliers, and customers. While inflation has moderated somewhat, it remains high. The cost of living soared in 2022, and consumers ended the year paying more for food and energy, especially in Europe. Across the many regions and end markets where we do business, trends diverged in 2022, and the variances became more pronounced as the year progressed. In general, growth has tempered on a worldwide basis, with conditions expected to continue in the first half of 2023. While commodity prices are moderating from the peaks we saw in the first half of 2022, fertilizer prices remain elevated when compared to recent history.
Farmer sentiment recovered as 2022 came to a close, affordability also began to improve. Supply chain disruption appeared to be easing for the most part, there are some remaining constraints. Our Phosphate Specialties business is still facing challenges, these are expected to continue in the near term. Finally, the geopolitical situation remains uncertain, with no resolution to the Ukraine-Russia conflict in sight after nearly one year. Meanwhile, as Raviv discussed, the recent reopening of China is going to influence developments in the months to come, how this will evolve is yet to be seen. On slide 16, you can see the change in commodity trends with prices moderating, still ahead of previous levels. Potash prices are back in line with the third quarter of 2021, as are prices for phosphoric acid. Freight continued to stabilize, has returned to pre-COVID rates.
Sulfur prices returned to levels not seen since early 2021. Throughout 2022, we were able to offset higher prices for raw materials. However, like many of our peers, we are now working through higher priced inventory, and this trend is expected to continue into early 2023. Turning to slide 17, where you can see that while crop prices declined somewhat from recent highs, they remain ahead of pre-COVID levels. The grain price index was somewhat stable throughout 2022, while the fertilizer price index rose sharply in the first half and declined rapidly in the second half of the year. As Raviv already mentioned, the global grain stock-to-use ratio ended 2022 at its lowest in more than a decade. Finally, while still elevated, energy prices came down at year-end.
On the left side of slide 18, you can see the improvement in annual sales came from all four of our segments, and we delivered more than $10 billion in total sales, a record-breaking year. On the right side of the slide, you can see the impact of higher prices on our year-over-year sales, which helped us offset a negative $353 million change rate impact. While potash benefited from significantly higher prices, our Specialties businesses also delivered improvement versus the prior year. Turning to slide 19, our annual adjusted EBITDA, which was more than $4 billion, also record. Once again, you can see the impact of higher potash prices on the left side of the slide and higher prices overall on the right side. On a segment basis, all four of our businesses contributed to the year-over-year improvement.
Turning to our fourth quarter results on slide 20, where the picture is a little different. On the left side, you can see Industrial Products experienced a year-over-year decline in sales when compared to an extraordinary quarter in 2021. Some end markets, such as consumer electronics and housing, were impacted by inflation and high interest rates. For 2022, we also saw a return to more traditional fourth quarter seasonality here and in other businesses, as many of our suppliers and customers also returned to more historical trends at year-end. Let's take a look at our fourth quarter EBITDA on slide 21, which demonstrate the trends similar to sales. Specifically, on the right side, I would like to call out the pricing was able to offset not only the lower volumes, but also increases in raw materials, energy and transportation, and a negative exchange rate impact.
I would now like to review a few highlights on slide 22. At year-end, our net debt to EBITDA ratio remained at 0.5x. As Raviv mentioned, we saw substantial improvement in operating and free cash flow both for the year and the quarter. We also continued to deliver sustainable shareholder value with our annual dividend yield at nearly 10% at the high end of our peer group. Additionally, we took advantage of the favorable market conditions in 2022 to settle an outstanding dispute concerning the Israeli law for taxation of profits from natural resources. As we have previously discussed, we expect our annual tax rate to be in the 30% range going forward. Finally, turning to slide 23, I would like to call your attention to our 2023 guidance.
We are targeting adjusted EBITDA of between $2.2 billion-$2.4 billion in total, for our Specialty business to contribute approximately $1.1 billion of that amount. With that, operator, we can begin the Q&A.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, you'll need to raise your hand using your mobile or desktop application, or press star nine on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. Once again, you will need to raise your hand using your mobile or desktop application, or press nine on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. Our first question today comes from the line of Alex Jones from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Alex Jones (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi. Thanks very much for taking my questions. Two, if I may. The first on the balance sheet, I guess, is, you mentioned net debt to EBITDA at 0.5x. Have you thought about using that to create additional shareholder distributions, either in the form of extra dividends or even share buybacks? The second question on Industrial Products, I guess volume is down 30% year-over-year this quarter. Was there any element there of you sort of somewhat curtailing volumes to give support to the market prices as we might have seen in the past? If so, how long do you think that that might last and what does that tell us about sort of the price outlook for your Industrial Products business in 2023? Thank you.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
All right, I'll start. Hi, Alex. I'll start from the second question and then go back to the first because Aviram will want to add to that. In terms of Industrial Products, the seasonality is the usual seasonality that we see every end of year. Last year in fourth quarter of 2021, we had an out of the ordinary quarter for a few reasons. One reason was it was the peak of the hike of buying TVs and other home appliances that require certain flame retardants, building, and our customers building inventory to get through supply chain challenges. There was an extraordinary demand even beyond our annual contracts.
At the same time, our competitors had some production issues, everything from a hurricane, bad weather effect and force majeure on chlorine production, and the result was an outstanding quarter. If you look at the previous years, you'll see that every year there was a seasonality in the fourth quarter. Coming back to the curtailments, I wouldn't call it curtailments. I would call it value over volume strategy. Our strategy is that at a certain price, it makes more sense for us to keep our product because we feel that we can sell it at a higher price later. We don't, we're not looking to increase our market share. We're looking for maximum value creation.
What we expect is that in the first few months of next year, we'll see some softness around flame retardants for electronics and construction, somewhat balanced by a peak in demand for clear brine fluids and some flame retardants that have to do with electric vehicles. That's why we're saying that after a few months in the first half of the year, we expect that the normal cyclicality will bring a stronger second half. A second half, not like 2022, which was an exceptional year, but a second half that will bring this year's Industrial Products division performance to somewhere around the 2021 performance. That's on, that's on Industrial Products.
In terms of capital allocation, dividend and buyback, we said on the last conference call that we came to a conclusion that 50%-60% is what we feel that we can distribute safely, in a way that will allow us to execute on our five-year plan, with the resources we need for M&A and other needs, capital expenditures, et cetera. Every end of year, we debate in our board of directors about what the right kind of distribution is. We are debating the issue of a buyback and whether to bring that into the potential 60% distribution. As soon as we'll have news that we can formally communicate, then we will communicate. Either way, of course. Do you wanna add to that?
Aviram Lahav (CFO)
Just one thing. It's perfect. We checked ourselves as, you know, we constantly look at the market, and we find ourselves that at really the upper part of the companies that pay back to shareholders already at 50%. If we had to stretch that beyond that-
That would be something quite exclusive. We are constantly monitoring this and it's not off the table for sure.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Maybe one more thing I would add is that you see we created free cash flow $1.3 billion this year, and we distributed about $1.2 billion. The realistic free cash flow was a little more than that because we used over $250 million to take care of some previous year items, namely the tax dispute that we had for many years, the Sheshinski profit levy in Israel, as well as we closed some environmental issues that we had from 2017 and before. We had some other use for cash in 2022.
At the same time, we're starting 2023 in a much better place, very strong balance sheet, and also, clean slate, with some challenges that we had in the past. Hope that answers.
Alex Jones (Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks, Raviv. Just maybe to follow up on the buyback discussions you were having. Do you have any timeline that we should bear in mind for hearing about that either way? Thank you.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Yes. The timeline is. Let me put it another way. Latest, we will report back to you on this, when we report our first quarter results. Latest.
Alex Jones (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question today comes from the line, Ben Theurer from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Ben Theurer (Managing Director and Head of Latin America Equity Research)
Yes. Good morning. Good afternoon. Can you hear me?
Aviram Lahav (CFO)
Yes.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Yes. Hi, Ben.
Ben Theurer (Managing Director and Head of Latin America Equity Research)
Okay, perfect. Well, thank you very much. First of all, congrats on a record year in 2022.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Ben Theurer (Managing Director and Head of Latin America Equity Research)
As well, two questions, if I may. First, just looking into 2023 and some of the demand drivers you're seeing out there and what you're seeing on the contracting side, can you share a few insights or maybe anecdotes what you're seeing for demand in the different segments? You've laid out a little bit of a trajectory on the industrial side, but also more on the commodity piece, but also just the seasonality you used to have. How should we think about the cadence into 2023 from a demand perspective? That would be my first question.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Okay. Thanks for the question. Since I discussed Industrial Products, I'll say that on Phosphate Specialties and Growing Solutions, we'll see the same kind of seasonality that we have every year, which means pretty flat all through the year with a little bit of softness on the fertilizer side in the fourth quarter of next year. In terms of commodities, lately, I would say since November, we see healthy demand in some markets, namely in Brazil, there's very strong demand.
Aviram Lahav (CFO)
Mm-hmm.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Even now, which is the 15th of February, we already sold over half of the annual allocation of potash to Brazil to be delivered in the first half of the year, which means that there's ample room to sell a lot of commodity. We're pretty sold out for first quarter. We're sold out on potash for the first quarter. We're sold out on phosphate until the end of the second quarter. If we look back to previous years, that's more robust than in the past. The lowest price in the world right now is in the U.S., which is why we're not selling in the U.S.
I think we sold only a few thousand tons that we had commitments to the U.S., but we have no reason to sell in the U.S. at this point. Brazil, very healthy. India needs product. China, there's still inventory. Contract in India is going to be soon. Contract in China, I honestly don't know. I don't think anybody's in a rush at this point, since like I said, they're healthy markets to sell in. In terms of India, even though I said it's very soon, we're in no rush because we don't have any product left for the first quarter, so we don't mind if it takes a few more weeks. I think that it will be relatively soon because I think India needs product.
I hope that gives a little color.
Aviram Lahav (CFO)
I would.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
You want to add?
Aviram Lahav (CFO)
Maybe, Ben, just to add one thing. If you look at a few things, first of all, at the price of commodities, agricultural commodities, they are high and they remain high. You couple it with the reduction that happened in fertilizer prices, both the sentiment that's being tracked by Purdue among others, and also the affordability for the farmers is much better. If you couple it with the fact that some of them in certain areas have omitted to commit fertilizers, then it, you have the ingredients that will make quantity wise, 2023, maybe significantly more robust than 2022.
You'll have more quantity, somewhat lower prices that we were used to before, and ultimately, this should pick up closer to the agricultural seasons, the height of the agricultural seasons, if it makes sense to you.
Ben Theurer (Managing Director and Head of Latin America Equity Research)
Yes. That's perfect. Thank you very much for that clarification. The other question, really just a more long-term strategic. If we take a look at the cadence, if we were to just exclude 22 for a moment as a very abnormal year as it's been described, but we take a look at the cadence of growth of EBITDA over the last couple of years from what we had pre-pandemic, particularly the Specialty business, basically expected to be close to double where it was prior to the pandemic.
If we think about what you need to achieve your 27 targets you've laid out, just a few months ago, is it fair to assume that just as markets continue to work out that, with the assets you have and the focus you have and the investments you do organically, that's enough to achieve the targets? Or should we think of the need to add on a little bit on the M&A side, to really drive this business, to the profile you are looking for, about three, four years' time?
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Thanks for that question. I think the way to model it, and again, we gave the numbers in our in our five-year plan that we presented. Like we doubled in the last five months, we're looking to double. In the last five years, sorry. We're looking to double in the next five years. In terms of profit margin, the profit margins that are reflective of the long-term business are more like the profit margins in 2021 than they are in 2022. The double-digit growth in Specialty sales will continue, and there will be some margin incremental increase every year.
Of course, there will be some movements that are not controllable, but over the long run, there'll be some margin expansion in the Specialties businesses. If you model Specialty Phosphates and the Growing Solutions based on based on middle double-digit margins with the sales, with the sales growth that we've seen in the past, you will get to the numbers. If you add to them M&A that will account for about 30% of the revenue growth in Growing Solutions and about 15% in the growth of Phosphate Specialties. I hope that's not too much information. As far as Industrial Products is concerned, the growth will be organic unless there's some unexpected development.
We don't need M&A to hit our targets. We have a relatively aggressive target for Industrial Products, but we have a very detailed outlined plan that we feel confident about. Our R&D is in place, our operations in place, the plants that need to be built are either in planning or being built. We have tremendous new opportunities in Specialties because of what's happening in the electric vehicle space. Other than commodities, which, you know, will be cyclical and we'll be happy to get same conditions as 2022, but we're definitely not counting on them. Long-term, margins will go back to 2021 margins for now.
They will incrementally increase every year until 2027. The growth will be organic other than 30% M&A in Growing Solutions and 20% in Phosphate Specialties.
Ben Theurer (Managing Director and Head of Latin America Equity Research)
Perfect. Thank you very much.
Aviram Lahav (CFO)
Ben, if you think about M&As, especially in the agricultural side, it can come by one of two ways. It's either portfolio or geographies or both of them. We speak a lot about portfolio, but we also have massive plans about geographies. It might be that we will opt to shortcut and do some M&As in order to support geographies as well. Bear it in mind, we have a new five-year plan. We're definitely looking, and we're looking in all directions. As long as it's synergetic, as long as we can add value to the acquisition, not an acquisition per se. Thank you.
Ben Theurer (Managing Director and Head of Latin America Equity Research)
Perfect. Thank you very much.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Aviram Lahav (CFO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kyle Caunt from Citi. Please go ahead.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Go ahead, Kyle.
Kyle Caunt (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi. Sorry, on mute there. Firstly, on your Specialties guidance, $1.6 this year, $1.1 next year. Can you give us an idea on the bridge breakdown between the different Specialties divisions? That would be great. Then my second question on the flip side, obviously, that implies a commodities contribution of $1.1 billion-$1.3 billion. What is your potash ASP that you're baking in to arrive at that guidance? Thank you.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Okay. Like I said before, when you look at Industrial Products, then we're looking at numbers that are almost identical to 2021, with the exception that the seasonality will be different given that we're starting the year with a slow start, second half to be higher. On Specialty Phosphates and Growing Solutions, we'll see a growing trajectory through the year, but we'll go back to the 2021 margins for the year. That's the way to think about Specialties, and that's how we got to the $1.1, which is a conservative estimate for the modeling that I just talked about. Again, some of the upside will be in the second half of the year because of Industrial Products.
On commodities, the way to maybe look at it is that if you look at the fourth quarter, $700 million of EBITDA, and you multiply that by four and get to $2.8 billion for the year. And given that we expect a couple of hundred million upside on Specialties, and that means to get to the upper side of our guidance, you need to take out about $600 million. $600 million would reflect the downside on commodities, and of course, about 80% of that comes from potash. So you get to close to close to the 500 number for sales price of potash.
Kyle Caunt (Equity Research Analyst)
That's great. Thank you.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson from BMO Capital. Please go ahead.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Joel, you wanna go ahead?
Joel Jackson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Do you hear me?
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Now we hear you.
Joel Jackson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yes.
Okay. I have a few questions. The first one is technical. I'm confused by your Specialties guidance for 2023. Sorry. When I look at slide 23 and slide 19, but slide 23. I meant 2022. You say the Specialties was $1.6 billion EBITDA for 2022, correct? Slide 23.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Yes. 1,573, if I remember correctly.
Joel Jackson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
When I add up the three segments, right? Growing Solutions, Phosphate Solutions, and IP, I get to $2.1 billion EBITDA, which is what you're saying in several places is Specialties. Is there some part of those three businesses? Like, you're excluding-
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Yes, in the phosphate you're adding.
Joel Jackson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Phosphates Commodities.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
You're adding the Phosphate Commodities. You have all the details in our press release.
Joel Jackson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
I do. Can you just bridge me the 2.1 to the 1.6? What is the $500 million coming out of? Can you bridge that for me, please?
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Phosphate Commodities. It's in the phosphate.
Joel Jackson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
You did $500 million in commodities.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
In the Phosphate Solutions business. Yeah. It's just.
Joel Jackson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Phosphate Commodities.
I can do that for 2022 if you want to, or we can do this offline later on.
Joel Jackson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. That's fine. I just wanna make sure it's understood.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Okay.
Joel Jackson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, the other question, the potash segment, you talk about maybe averaging about $500 pricing in 2023, which is what you're saying for is implied. What about volume for the potash segment? What should we expect in 2023? What kind of production can you do from the different assets?
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
We're expecting production of about 4.8. We're assuming sales of 4.8. We do have some capability to go down on inventory and go up to 4.9. In terms of modeling, we modeled 4.8.
Joel Jackson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
You get to what? 5.1 or 5.2 by 2024?
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Not by 2024. We get to 5.1 by 2026.
Joel Jackson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
2026. Okay. I know that you are, you know, you always say you're typically followers in some of these larger, you know, potash contracts that mixes that get settled by the buying consortium in China and IFFCO, IPL, et cetera, in India, and you typically follow. We are in approaching contract season. Anything that you can talk about from what you and your team hears about the Indian contract, is it gonna be... Do you think it's gonna be Belarusian settling something then the other suppliers coming at a different tier pricing? Do you think it's gonna be Canpotex leading? I understand it's all conjecture, and you're just sort of hearing what you hear, but how do you think the next couple months are gonna play out for these potash contracts?
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
I think it's gonna be settled soon.
Joel Jackson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
That's your entire comment.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
That's all I can say at this point.
Joel Jackson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Okay, I'll pass it on. Thanks a lot.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Thank you, Joel.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question, one second please. Comes from the line of Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Will Tang (Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, guys. This is Will Tang on for Vincent Andrews. Can you hear me?
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Yes.
Will Tang (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Yeah. This is Will Tang on for Vincent. Just one quick question. You guys called out, you know, elevated inventory levels, at the end of 2022 in Industrial Products. Was that a comment specific to kind of, you know, the flame retardants business or something that, you know, broadly characteristic across, you know, all your, all your end markets there or all your product categories?
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Are you talking about our inventory?
Will Tang (Equity Research Analyst)
I guess, yeah. All I heard was, you know, elevated inventories at the end of 2022.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Our inventory levels in recent years have been tracking between 26%-28% of sales, and we finished the year with 27.1%. In terms of where we see a higher inventory at this point, we see a higher inventory in Industrial Products. And again, because some of the flame retardants, some of our customers are stocking down, there's always a balance when you go down on production and reach lower efficiencies versus how much it costs to hold inventory. In our case, it's better to not stop production to produce the inventory that we're sure we can sell.
In Industrial Products, the level of inventory we have is higher than we would probably like, but it's not unusual, given the circumstances. In our other businesses, we're pretty much where we need to be. In the Phosphate Specialties, a major supplier had a force majeure situation, that also caused us to have inventory a little higher than we would like at the end of the year. We have two divisions that have higher inventory at the end of the year than we would've liked. At the same time, we're well within our range, which again is 26%-28%. Actually, 26%-28.5% we had in 2018. We're 27.1% now, we're still in a healthy place.
Aviram Lahav (CFO)
Just to add, if I may, that we have deliberate plans in place to reduce that actively in every place where we have, to our liking, excess inventory. It'll probably take us anywhere from one to two quarters, maybe a little bit more than that, but we'll get it back in line. I think the typical phenomena that stems from what happened in 2022, and the sharp differences that we are seeing these days.
Will Tang (Equity Research Analyst)
Got you. I guess just a quick follow-up, you know, if I may. Going back to an earlier question on, you know, your value over buying strategy there. You know, volume's down 30% in Industrial Products. Is that, you know, what's characteristic of kind of, you know, I guess, the sell-through of the entire, you know, bromine market? Or, is there somebody there who's kind of taking share from you guys, from the balcony?
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Our position in the market is that we have no problem increasing market share if we want to, but the price we pay is the price level. We try to be disciplined about the way we make decisions. In some of the products, there's very healthy demand. I mentioned the clear brine fluids. There's even some products that usually we don't sell very well that are suddenly a hit. We have a product that treats mercury emissions coming from coal. That's a product that actually was not very successful in recent years given that the coal was almost outlawed. Now, given the energy crisis, suddenly there's new demand.
There's always some business that's just doing well, and fundamentally, the most significant influencer in the foreseeable future is the electric vehicle industry. We're very confident of the positive trajectory there, so. Seasonally, we always increase inventory in the fourth quarter, other than maybe the one time last year because of the reasons I mentioned. It's not out of the ordinary to have higher inventory at the end of the year in the bromine-related products.
Aviram Lahav (CFO)
Looking forward to a rebound in an electronic site, which, we believe, according to our discussions...
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
According to our experience.
Aviram Lahav (CFO)
Yes, our experience, that it's coming, and some more inventory around the phosphorus side, which would see a rebound in housing as interest rates start coming gradually down. Basically, this is an issue that we are totally aware of, working through it, and should sort itself out. That's the bottom line.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
On electronics, it's going to take a couple more months. On construction, it'll take much longer because the cycle there is longer.
Aviram Lahav (CFO)
Yeah.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Hope that answers.
Will Tang (Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Yep, that's perfect. Thank you.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. You have no further questions. Please proceed.
Raviv Zoller (President and CEO)
It's the end of the year for all of you guys as well, so thanks for being with us this year. Thanks for sharing your questions and listening to us. Thanks for allowing us to report. Thanks for believing in what we're doing. When you believe in what we're doing, we're very confident about the long-term plan that we took upon ourselves a few years ago. We've been successful in executing in the recent five years, and we're even more confident about the next five years. We kept, even in the fate of lots of luck that we had this year, we kept our expenses intact. We were disciplined. We continue to be disciplined.
We don't take ourselves too seriously, and we execute, execute, and we're looking forward to reporting back to you, our first quarter results. Thank you very much for being with us, and have a great rest of the day.
Aviram Lahav (CFO)
Thank you.