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IDACORP INC (IDA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 EPS was $2.26, up 6.6% YoY (vs $2.12), driven by base rate increases and customer growth; Idaho Power’s operating income benefited from +$17.6M retail rate/MWh and +$7.8M customer growth, partially offset by lower usage per customer and higher O&M/depreciation .
  • IDACORP raised FY25 EPS guidance to $5.80–$5.90 (from $5.70–$5.85), while lowering expected additional ADITC amortization to $50–$60M, citing strong operational performance .
  • A constructive Idaho general rate case settlement (pending IPUC approval) would increase Idaho jurisdictional annual revenues by $110M, set ROE at 9.6% and overall authorized ROR at 7.41% on ~$4.9B rate base; ADITC mechanism expanded with a $55M annual cap .
  • Resource plan pivot: Idaho Power terminated 600MW Jackalope wind agreements due to permitting/policy changes; management is pursuing alternative capacity/energy solutions (gas, solar+storage, market purchases), and progressing on Boardman-to-Hemingway transmission (in service 2027) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Rate changes and customer growth were the largest drivers of Q3 results; “Continued customer growth and rate changes were the largest drivers of our third quarter results,” said CEO Lisa Grow .
  • Guidance raised despite lower ADITC usage: “We were able to increase our earnings per share estimate for the year while decreasing our estimate of additional ADITC amortization, which is reflective of our strong operational performance this year” (Amy Shaw) .
  • Strategic project execution: Broke ground and installed towers on Boardman‑to‑Hemingway; strong progress on Gateway West and Swift North transmission; CWIP reached ~$1.6B, and total assets exceeded $10B for the first time .

What Went Wrong

  • Usage per retail customer decreased in Q3 (–$5.7M impact), notably irrigation due to higher precipitation vs last year; O&M (+$4.2M) and depreciation (+$8.1M) rose with system growth and wildfire mitigation costs .
  • Non‑operating expense increased (+$9.8M) on higher interest (long‑term debt, transmission customer deposits) and a new finance lease related to energy storage, partially offset by higher AFUDC .
  • Jackalope Wind project agreements terminated due to permitting uncertainties and federal land use policy changes, creating a near‑term replacement need for energy/capacity; management is evaluating gas, solar+BESS, and purchases .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 Consensus
Revenues ($USD Millions)$527.49*$431.95*$449.67*$523.55*$661.36*
Diluted EPS ($)$2.12 $1.10 $1.76 $2.26 $2.257*
Net Income ($USD Millions)$113.61 $59.65 $95.78 $124.44 —
EBIT Margin (%)24.9%*12.35%*21.97%*27.33%*—
Net Income Margin (%)21.49%*13.79%*21.24%*23.73%*—

Notes: Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

  • EPS: Slight beat vs consensus ($2.26 actual vs $2.257 estimate) .
  • Revenue: Significant miss vs consensus ($523.6M* actual vs $661.4M* estimate), likely reflecting utility accounting differences and deferral mechanisms; management cited reduced net power supply expenses and PCA dynamics .

KPIs (Q3 2025 unless noted)

  • Customer growth: +~15,000 (+2.3% YoY) twelve months ended Sep 30, 2025 .
  • Operating cash flow: $464.1M YTD (nine months) .
  • Liquidity: Revolving credit facilities net availability—IDACORP $100M; Idaho Power $400M (no CP outstanding) .
  • CWIP: ~$1.6B at quarter end; total assets > $10B .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (as of Jul 31, 2025)Current Guidance (as of Oct 30, 2025)Change
IDACORP EPS (diluted)FY 2025$5.70 – $5.85 $5.80 – $5.90 Raised
Additional ADITC (Idaho Power)FY 2025$60 – $77M $50 – $60M Lowered
O&M Expense (Idaho Power)FY 2025$465 – $475M $470 – $480M Raised
CapEx ex‑AFUDC (Idaho Power)FY 2025$1,000 – $1,100M No Change Maintained
Hydropower GenerationFY 20257.0 – 8.0 million MWh 6.5 – 7.0 million MWh Lowered
DividendQ4 2025—$0.88/share payable Dec 1, 2025 Declared

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q1 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Large load pipeline (Micron, data centers, mining)Pipeline > all-time peak load; Micron announced second fab; inquiries +~30% YoY Continued robust growth; conservative load forecasting; multiple sectors expanding Strengthening demand visibility
Resource mix shift (gas vs renewables)2025 IRP recommends more gas; Jackalope faced hurdles; gas bids limited in 2029 RFP Jackalope wind agreements terminated; Bennett Mountain 167MW gas expansion advancing (CPCN filed; pre-permit received) Tilt toward dispatchable gas
Transmission buildoutBroke ground B2H (2025); progressing Gateway West & Swift North B2H towers complete; in‑service late‑2027; transmission key to market access Execution progress
Regulatory (rate case)Idaho GRC filed; request ~$199M; proposed trackers and ADITC expansion Settlement reached: +$110M revenue, 9.6% ROE, 7.41% ROR, ~$4.9B rate base; IPUC approval pending Dec Constructive outcome
Wildfire mitigationNew Idaho Wildfire Standard of Care Act; WMP in place since 2021 2026 WMP filed under new law; technology upgrades and PSPS protocols Enhanced risk management

Management Commentary

  • “We strive to achieve a thoughtful balance between growth and affordability… Idaho Power's customers' bills remain 20% to 30% lower than the national average” (Lisa Grow) .
  • “Because of [strong year‑to‑date performance], we've decreased our full year expectation of additional ADITC amortization, while at the same time raising our expectations on earnings for the year” (Brian Buckham) .
  • “We recently reached a settlement… increase annual revenues by $110 million, or 7.48%… 9.6% ROE… 7.41% overall rate of return… ~$4.9 billion rate base” (Lisa Grow) .
  • “We terminated [Jackalope Wind] agreements due to permitting delays and uncertainty around federal land use policies… pursuing other resources to meet capacity and energy deficits” (management presentation) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Replacement strategy post‑Jackalope: Alternatives include short‑term market purchases, natural gas projects, and additional solar/BESS; Bennett Mountain gas expansion expected online in 2028 if approved (construction start spring 2026) .
  • Capital plan and equity needs: Removal of Jackalope’s concentrated 2026–2027 spend could reduce near‑term equity needs; rate case settlement and Hells Canyon AFUDC pre‑collection support credit metrics .
  • Rate case timeline: Expect IPUC order in December; tracking mechanisms still under consideration for future cases .
  • Load/irrigation dynamics: Despite warmer than normal conditions, irrigation load highly sensitive to precipitation; Q3 saw a modest irrigation downtick vs strong year‑to‑date .

Estimates Context

MetricQ3 2025 ConsensusActual Q3 2025Surprise
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)2.257*2.26 +$0.00 — in line to slight beat
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)661.36*523.55*–$137.81 — bold miss

Notes: Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

  • Interpretation: EPS in line reflects rate benefits and disciplined cost management; the revenue miss (vs consensus) likely tied to utility accounting and deferral mechanisms (PCA, FCA) and lower net power supply expense recorded, which management highlighted; investors should focus on earnings power rather than top‑line variability in a regulated context .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Earnings quality improving: Q3 EPS up 6.6% YoY; FY25 EPS guidance raised despite lower ADITC amortization, reflecting operational strength and constructive regulatory outcomes .
  • Regulatory catalysts: Pending Idaho rate case settlement (Dec) would reset economics (9.6% ROE) and expand ADITC mechanism, supporting cash flows and credit metrics; monitor approval timing .
  • Resource strategy pivot: Wind cancellations increase probability of gas additions and selective solar/storage; Bennett Mountain expansion is a near‑term anchor; transmission projects (B2H 2027) expand market access .
  • Load growth durability: Multi‑sector industrial pipeline (Micron suppliers, mining, ag) and data center interest underpin long‑term demand; conservative forecasting approach reduces execution risk .
  • Cash and financing: YTD operating cash flow $464M and liquidity strong; forward equity programs provide flexibility to maintain a ~50:50 capital structure; equity timing sensitive to CapEx profile after Jackalope removal .
  • Near‑term trading: Expect focus on guidance raise and settlement prospects; narrative positives on project execution and load demand could outweigh headline revenue miss in regulated frameworks .
  • Medium‑term thesis: Rate base growth (~$4.9B Idaho jurisdiction today and accelerating), disciplined resource additions, and transmission buildout support EPS trajectory; watch regulatory trackers and hydrology impacts on hydro output .

Notes: Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.