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IMAX CORP (IMAX)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Solid Q1 print with revenue $86.7m (+10% YoY) and Adjusted EPS $0.13; Adjusted EBITDA $37.0m at 42.7% margin. Management highlighted record Q1 IMAX global box office ($298m, +12% YoY) and robust system demand (95 signings; 21 installs) as key drivers .
- Results beat S&P Global consensus on revenue ($86.7m vs $84.2m*) and adjusted EPS ($0.13 vs $0.114*); a clean reversal from Q4’s revenue miss (92.7m vs 102.5m*) and slight EPS miss (0.27 vs 0.282*) . Values with asterisk from S&P Global.
- Management reaffirmed trajectory toward 2025 targets (record >$1.2B IMAX global box office; 145–160 installations; 40%+ Adjusted EBITDA margin), citing a heavy “Filmed for IMAX” slate and strengthening exhibitor investment pipeline .
- China concerns addressed: management expects any “moderate” import reductions to focus on lower-potential titles; IMAX’s Q1 China outperformance and studio signals underpin confidence. Local language mix reached 68% of Q1 box office, with Ne Zha 2 a standout .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record Q1 global box office ($298m) and high flow-through: Content Solutions GM +7% YoY on +1% revenue; overall GM 61.4% (+210 bps YoY). CEO: “The fundamentals of our business have never been stronger” .
- Strong system demand: 95 signings (vs 8 LY) and 21 installs (+40% YoY), lifting backlog to 516 systems; balanced installs across U.S., RoW, and China (7 each) .
- Local language strategy acceleration: IMAX China delivered record Chinese New Year; Ne Zha 2 indexed ~7.5% on <1% of screens and commands higher take rates than Hollywood releases .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP EPS diluted declined YoY ($0.04 vs $0.06) as non-controlling interest increased with IMAX China strength; adjusted EPS down YoY ($0.13 vs $0.15) despite better revenues .
- Free cash flow negative (-$7.7m) on step-up in growth CapEx for JV screens; management emphasized upfront nature and long-term cash economics of JRSA model .
- Elevated Q1 tax rate (47%) on geographic mix/valuation allowance; management expects normalization over full year, but quarter’s tax drag reduced EPS leverage .
Financial Results
Headline P&L and Margins (USD Millions, except per share; columns: oldest → newest)
Results vs S&P Global Consensus
Segment performance (Revenue and Gross Margin; USD Millions)
KPIs and Network
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO strategy and tone: “IMAX is off to an excellent start… record global box office and strong system sales and installations… entering a new era of growth” . On China imports: any “moderate” reduction likely targets smaller films; studios expect major films to be approved .
- Local-language momentum: “It’s quite possible that IMAX delivers its highest grossing local language films of all time in China, Japan and India this year” .
- Slate catalysts: “Every Hollywood release scheduled from now to August was filmed with IMAX cameras… Sinners delivered our biggest domestic opening weekend ever for a horror film” .
- CFO: “On track to achieve our guidance for the full year, including a record $1.2 billion in global box office” with Adjusted EBITDA margin 42.7% in Q1 and strong signings/installations underpinning backlog .
Q&A Highlights
- China import policy: Management reiterated confidence that major studio tentpoles will be approved; exhibitor interest in China is increasing post-record quarter .
- “Filmed for IMAX” capacity: Primary constraint is programming slots and selectivity; film camera supply can be a temporary limiter, but digital is not; intention is quality over quantity .
- Content margins and tax: High box office levels drive 85% incremental flow-through in Content Solutions; Q1 margin benefitted from local-language mix and lower social marketing costs; tax rate elevated in Q1 (47%) but expected to normalize for FY .
- Windows/PVOD: IMAX not materially impacted by PVOD window length; focus remains on content quality/diversification .
- Consumer resilience: IMAX positioned as “affordable luxury”; historical resilience through economic cycles; concessions not a profit driver for IMAX .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 beat: Revenue $86.7m vs $84.2m*; Adjusted EPS $0.13 vs $0.114*. Box office-led flow-through, with Content Solutions margin tailwinds and robust installations/signings . Values with asterisk from S&P Global.
- Prior quarters: Q4 2024 revenue miss ($92.7m vs $102.5m*) and slight EPS miss ($0.27 vs $0.282*) contrasted with Q3 2024 EPS beat ($0.35 vs $0.236*) despite small revenue miss ($91.5m vs $93.7m*) . Values with asterisk from S&P Global.
- Implications: Estimate models likely bias up for Q2–Q3 Content Solutions revenue/margin given slate density (eight consecutive Filmed for IMAX) and demonstrated 85% flow-through at elevated box office levels; tax rate normalization caveat could aid EPS vs Q1 run-rate .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Box office-driven operating leverage is working: 61.4% GM and 42.7% Adjusted EBITDA margin despite seasonality; local-language outperformance adds incremental fee advantage, particularly in China .
- Demand-side validation: 95 signings and higher sales-type mix in installs signal exhibitor conviction heading into a slate-heavy 2025–2026; backlog now 516 systems .
- Summer catalysts: Eight consecutive Filmed for IMAX releases (e.g., Mission: Impossible, How to Train Your Dragon, F1, Fantastic Four) should sustain high indexing and occupancy; near-term trading likely tracks slate momentum and weekend hold trends .
- China narrative turning: Record CNY and management’s read-through on import approvals reduce tail risk; local-language strategy and marketing execution (social/digital) are delivering share gains .
- Mind the mix: Q1 adjusted vs GAAP EPS gap driven by higher non-controlling interest and tax mix; watch for tax normalization and continued IMAX China strength impacting EPS attribution to common shareholders .
- Cash flow optics: Near-term FCF drag from growth CapEx into JV screens is by design; long-duration JRSA contracts support multi-year cash returns as the slate normalizes .
- 2025 guide intact: Management remains on track for record IMAX global box office >$1.2B, 145–160 installs, and 40%+ Adjusted EBITDA margin, with heavier install cadence in H2 .
Notes on non-GAAP: Adjusted EPS excludes share-based comp, investment gains/losses, restructuring/other; Adjusted EBITDA per Credit Facility adds further credit agreement adjustments; free cash flow excludes growth CapEx for JRSA .
Asterisked values retrieved from S&P Global.