Immunocore Holdings plc (IMCR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• IMCR delivered a clean top- and bottom-line beat: Q1 revenue of $93.9M vs S&P Global consensus $86.5M*, and EPS of $0.10 vs -$0.40*; EBITDA also outperformed (-$2.8M actual vs -$23.0M*) .
• Growth drivers: continued KIMMTRAK demand in the U.S. (+13% YoY) and ex-U.S. launches, plus a $6.0M one-time favorable price adjustment in Europe; total net revenue +33% YoY .
• No numeric FY guidance, but management reiterated “incremental growth” for 2025 and steady SG&A with higher R&D to advance three Phase 3 programs; timelines intact (PRISM dose selection 2H25; TEBE-AM enrollment complete 1H26) .
• Near-term stock catalysts: additional HIV MAD data follow-through post-CROI, PRISM-MEL-301 dose selection in 2H25, and continued KIMMTRAK ex-U.S. expansion; European pricing headwinds are easing selectively but remain a watch item .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Strong revenue execution with clear beat vs consensus; net product sales rose 33% YoY to $93.9M, aided by U.S. demand and new ex-U.S. launches; CEO: “We are thrilled to have achieved strong revenue performance in Q1” .
• U.S. growth remained healthy (+13% YoY), and Europe benefited from completion of price negotiations in France and Germany (one-time favorable revenue adjustments of $6.0M) .
• Pipeline momentum: three ongoing Phase 3 programs (TEBE-AM, PRISM-MEL-301, ATOM) on-track; HIV MAD data presented at CROI with dose escalation ongoing .

What Went Wrong

• Operating profitability remains pressured; EBIT margin was negative in Q1 2025, reflecting ongoing R&D and SG&A investment to support Phase 3 programs and launches (-3.85%) .
• Revenue quality mix included a non-recurring $6.0M pricing adjustment in Europe; investors should normalize for potential non-repeatability in forward models .
• Reimbursement remains uneven across Europe; management continues to flag a challenging environment despite progress in key markets .

Financial Results

Headline vs Consensus (Q1 2025)

Note: “Consensus” and EBITDA values marked with “*” are Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Quarterly Trend Summary

Notes:

• Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 gross margins are skewed by very low/negative cost of revenue (Cost of revenue: Q1 2025 $(0.83)M) .
• Margin values marked with “*” are Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Regional Net Sales (KIMMTRAK) by Quarter ($USD Millions)

KPIs and Operating Metrics

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A Q1 2025 transcript was not available in our document index. We cite Q3 2024 PR, Q4 2024 call/PR, and Q1 2025 PR.

Management Commentary

• CEO tone on Q1 performance and pipeline: “We are thrilled to have achieved strong revenue performance in Q1, marked by year-over-year growth of 33%… laser-focused on execution… excited to have presented the initial MAD data at CROI” .
• CFO on 2025 framework: expect incremental KIMMTRAK growth (U.S.-led), R&D to increase vs 2024, and SG&A to be mostly consistent with Q4 2024 run-rate across 2025 .
• Commercial head on strategy: sustained U.S. community penetration and ex-U.S. launches underpin growth; lifecycle management via TEBE-AM (2L+ CM) and ATOM (adjuvant UM) .

Q&A Highlights

• HIV program design and go-forward dose: 12-week ATI used to detect antiviral control signals; dose selection will weigh safety and antiviral activity; expansion likely before registrational study; 3 cohorts (5–6 pts/cohort) presented with ongoing escalation .
• Europe pricing/reimbursement: environment remains challenging; company progressing on country-by-country basis; noted price negotiations in major markets .
• PRISM-MEL-301 dose selection: IDMC review of first ~90 randomized patients with 8–12 weeks follow-up to choose 40 mcg vs 160 mcg, weighing initial responses and safety; no futility at this analysis; company won’t disclose interim details .
• Commercial penetration/duration: U.S. penetration around 65%; duration trending above trial experience, supporting continued revenue durability .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global consensus for Q1 2025: revenue $86.5M, EPS -$0.40, EBITDA -$23.0M; actuals beat on all three (revenue $93.9M; EPS $0.10; EBITDA -$2.8M*) .
• Potential estimate revisions: models should raise revenue/EPS for demand and ex-U.S. launches but temper for non-recurring $6.0M EU pricing benefit; R&D run-rate to reflect higher Phase 3 and combo activity .
  Note: Values marked with “*” are Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Clean beat driven by U.S. demand and ex-U.S. expansion; one-time EU pricing uplift ($6.0M) is non-recurring—normalize revenue accordingly in forward estimates .
• 2025 outlook steady: incremental KIMMTRAK growth (U.S.-led), rising R&D, and stable SG&A run-rate—margin recovery depends on revenue scale vs clinical spend .
• Pipeline milestones: PRISM dose selection (2H25) and TEBE-AM enrollment complete (1H26) are key de-risking events for the melanoma franchise .
• Infectious disease optionality: encouraging early HIV signals (CROI) with continued MAD escalation; platform read-through to HBV is a medium-term value lever .
• EU pricing/reimbursement improving selectively (France/Germany), but country-by-country variability persists—watch ex-U.S. cadence and durability .
• Cash of $837M provides ample runway to execute on multiple Phase 3s and early programs without near-term financing pressure .
• Trading setup: near-term sentiment supported by beats and catalysts; clarity on recurring ex-U.S. contribution and Phase 3 progress likely to drive next leg.

Additional Documents Reviewed

• Q1 2025 8-K Item 2.02 and press release (full financials and business update) .
• Prior two quarters for trend analysis: Q4 2024 8-K/press release and call; Q3 2024 8-K/press release - -.
• Company press release: initial HIV MAD data at CROI 2025 (context for program momentum) .
• Company press page for Q1 2025 release (redundant to 8-K Exhibit 99.1) .

Footnotes:

• Values marked with “*” are Values retrieved from S&P Global.