Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Significant Investment in Digital Growth: Intermex is significantly increasing its digital marketing spend from $1 million to $9 million in 2025, aiming to scale its digital customer acquisition efficiently. This strategic investment is expected to accelerate digital growth, capitalizing on the rising digital adoption among consumers.
- Highly Profitable Retail Business with Expansion Efforts: The company’s retail business remains a critical component of its strategy, expected to generate $65 million to $70 million in free cash flow in 2025. Intermex is adding more headcount to its retail sales team to expand agent locations, particularly in underpenetrated Western states, which presents a significant growth opportunity.
- Strategic Acquisition of Amigo Paisano Enhances Digital Capabilities: The acquisition of Amigo Paisano allows Intermex to fully own the customer transaction, leading to improved unit economics and higher gross margins per transaction. Additionally, the acquisition brings on board a quality team with expertise that will contribute to scaling the digital business more efficiently. The acquisition was made at a favorable multiple, lower than where the company trades, indicating prudent capital allocation.
- The company is facing a difficult macroenvironment in Mexico, its largest market, leading to uncertainty and slow growth. CEO Robert Lisy stated that "we have a difficult macroenvironment right now in Mexico ... it's hard to predict today what the market will look like precisely in 2025."
- There is a significant negative growth in the retail sector, which accounts for over 90% of the company's business, due to the shift from retail to digital. Lisy mentioned that "we're left with a number at retail, a macro number at retail that we think is a negative growth number, significantly negative."
- Increased competition in digital is leading to higher customer acquisition costs, and the company plans to increase digital marketing spend from $1 million to $9 million in 2025, which could impact profitability. CFO Andras Bende noted this increase in spend , and Chief Digital Officer Marcelo Theodoro said that "all our players are investing, which can impact the cost of acquisition in the long-term."
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | –4% (from ~$171.78M to ~$164.76M) | Total Revenue decreased by approximately 4% YoY. This decline suggests a continuation of retail channel weakness despite previous strong digital growth, with the modest decline possibly reflecting softening demand or increased competitive pressures compared to prior periods. |
Wire Transfer and Money Order Fees | –5.3% (from ~$145.17M to ~$137.46M) | Fees fell by roughly 5.3% YoY, which likely reflects a lower volume of higher-fee transactions in the retail network, consistent with prior trends where increased digital transactions partially offset declines in traditional channels. |
Foreign Exchange Gains | –7.9% (from ~$23.66M to ~$21.80M) | Foreign Exchange Gains declined by about 7.9% YoY. This reduction may be attributed to narrower foreign exchange spreads or reduced volatility in certain currency pairs, consistent with earlier observations where similar macro trends impacted the gains. |
Other Income | +90% (from ~$2.89M to ~$5.51M) | Other Income nearly doubled YoY, driven by a significant uptick in ancillary revenues such as check-cashing service fees, abandoned property transfer fees, and higher income from debit/credit card-based transactions—continuing the trend seen in previous periods. |
Interest Expense | +112% (from ~2,783K to ~5,916K) | Interest Expense more than doubled YoY. The rise is primarily due to higher borrowing under the revolving credit facility and continued pressure from elevated interest rates, a trend that intensified as the company expanded its working capital needs compared to the prior quarter. |
Operating Income | –10.8% (from ~27,657K to ~24,701K) | Operating Income declined by about 10.8% YoY, impacted by a combination of lower overall revenue and rising interest and financing costs, which offset improvements in cost efficiencies noted in earlier periods. |
Net Income | –12% (from ~17,499K to ~15,385K) | Net Income dropped roughly 12% YoY, reflecting the dual impact of a modest revenue decline and increased expense pressures—especially from higher interest costs—that eroded the profitability gains achieved in the previous period. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $145.5 million to $149.9 million | no prior guidance |
Fully Diluted GAAP EPS | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $0.32 to $0.34 | no prior guidance |
Adjusted Diluted EPS | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $0.40 to $0.43 | no prior guidance |
Adjusted EBITDA | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $23.3 million to $24 million | no prior guidance |
Full Year Revenue | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $657.5 million to $677.5 million | no prior guidance |
Fully Diluted GAAP EPS | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $1.76 to $1.91 | no prior guidance |
Adjusted Diluted EPS | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $2.09 to $2.26 | no prior guidance |
Adjusted EBITDA | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $113.8 million to $117.3 million | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
Digital Growth Investment and Transformation | Consistently positive sentiment across all quarters. In Q1, discussions centered on exceptional digital growth, improved unit economics, and profitable digital channels ( ). In Q2, the focus was on completing digital platform investments and lowering acquisition costs ( ). In Q3, the earnings call highlighted strategic digital investment, strong digital revenue growth, and improved profitability ( ). | Q4 emphasizes scaling through aggressive digital marketing spend (increasing from $1M to $9M) and continues to showcase strong digital revenue and omnichannel strategies ( ). | Strong, bullish narrative that has grown in ambition. Digital transformation remains a key growth driver with heightened investments in Q4, reflecting increased confidence and a step‐change in digital focus. |
Retail Business Performance and Decline | Mixed sentiments over the periods. Q1 focused on the strength of the retail network and opportunities for expansion ( ). Q2 acknowledged challenges due to macro headwinds despite retail’s foundational role ( ). Q3 detailed market declines, competitive pressure, and narrowing growth gaps in retail ( ). | Q4 notes a challenging macroeconomic environment—especially in Mexico—and a slowdown in retail growth, though the segment remains critical ( ). | Sentiment on retail has shifted from expansion to caution. Although retail remains profitable and strategic, evolving external headwinds have increased the focus on mitigating its decline. |
Macroeconomic Challenges in the Mexican Market | Consistent concerns. Q1 mentioned currency volatility and market softness ( ). Q2 discussed cyclical contraction driven by inflation and temporary drivers from peso weakening ( ). Q3 elaborated on factors including high interest rates, low housing starts, and peso dynamics impacting growth ( ). | Q4 highlights a difficult macro environment in Mexico with a noticeable slowdown and conservative outlook due to pressures such as immigration and broader economic factors ( ). | Persistently negative with intensified caution in Q4. Concerns about macro conditions remain a recurring and potentially impactful theme for future growth in key markets. |
Strategic Acquisitions and Partnership Integration | Always a key growth lever. Q1 featured successful integrations such as Lonationale and partnerships like Felix Pago and enhanced Visa collaboration ( ). Q2 detailed the integration of La Nacional and a new U.K. acquisition, with future M&A opportunities in view ( ). Q3 continued with finalizing integrations (La Nacional, Transfer) and leveraging “wires-as-a-service” partnerships ( ). | Q4 focused on the acquisition of Amigo Paisano and highlighted integration success with La Nacional’s EBITDA more than doubling, reinforcing their strategy ( ). | Consistently positive with growing scale. The narrative shows a continued commitment to strategic acquisitions that bolster profitability and integration synergies, with Q4 underlining their success and future expansion potential. |
Increased Digital Competition and Rising Customer Acquisition Costs | Recurring challenge with evolving mitigation. In Q1, while strong unit economics were noted, rising CAC was flagged ( ). Q2 emphasized significant investment improvements reducing CAC ( ). Q3 acknowledged digital competition and detailed strategies via “wires-as-a-service” to lower CAC ( ). | Q4 sees a competitive digital landscape with stable acquisition costs amid aggressive market investment and higher efficiency in retaining customers ( ). | A persistent challenge that is being effectively managed. While digital competition intensifies, continuous improvements in marketing efficiency have stabilized CAC over time. |
Expansion into New Markets (Domestic and International) | Emphasis on growth through geographic and channel expansion. Q1 discussed domestic sales force expansion and entry into European retail markets via partnerships ( ). Q2 focused on reworking the retail team and the UK acquisition to bolster international presence ( ). Q3 reinforced international licenses (EU, UK) and domestic cost efficiencies as drivers ( ). | Q4 provides limited details; the focus is mainly on domestic expansion in underpenetrated Western U.S. states, with little mention of international market developments ( ). | A shift in emphasis. Whereas earlier periods stressed both domestic and international expansion, Q4 shows a relative de‐emphasis on new international initiatives and greater focus on boosting domestic market penetration. |
Capital Allocation Strategy Shifts (Reduced Buybacks, Increased Growth Investment) | Mixed signals across periods. Q1 noted heavy buyback activity along with investments in technology and M&A ( ). Q2 explicitly discussed a shift toward reduced buybacks (from ~$20M per quarter) and higher investment via acquisitions and M&A ( ). Q3 concentrated more on repurchases with less focus on shifts ( ). | Q4 clearly indicates a strategic shift toward increased growth investments, especially in digital marketing and staffing, while planning a lower baseline for share repurchases in 2025 ( ). | A clear pivot towards reinvesting for growth. The shift from returning capital via buybacks to channeling funding into expansion initiatives is more pronounced in Q4, signaling a long‐term strategic bet on growth. |
Earnings Guidance Withdrawal and Future Earnings Uncertainty | Guidance messaging evolved. Q1 reaffirmed full‐year guidance with optimism despite soft market risks ( ). Q2 updated guidance with specific ranges supporting full‐year targets ( ). Q3 saw management withholding guidance, citing strategic process and market softness ( ). | Q4 provided guidance with caution, citing macroeconomic headwinds and uncertainties (notably in Mexico and retail) ( ). | Increasing caution. While early quarters showed confidence, later calls (Q3 and Q4) reveal growing uncertainty and a conservative tone in forward guidance amid challenging market conditions. |
Sales Force and Operational Expansion | Robust expansion in earlier quarters. Q1 detailed significant expansions of both inside (tripling team size) and outside sales forces ( ). Q2 reinforced investments in retail sales leadership and operational efficiencies ( ). Q3 continued to highlight operational streamlining and cost reductions alongside efficient sales force performance ( ). | Q4 did not explicitly discuss this topic. | Topic is no longer mentioned in Q4. The absence of explicit discussion in Q4 may suggest a deprioritization or integration into broader strategic themes, potentially as digital and acquisition initiatives take center stage. |
-
Digital Investment
Q: How much are you investing in digital in 2025?
A: We are increasing our digital marketing spend from $1 million to $9 million in 2025, aiming to grow our digital business efficiently. Additionally, we're allocating $3 million to $3.5 million to fortify retail through staffing and marketing. ** ** -
Digital Customer Acquisition
Q: What are early learnings from your digital customer acquisition?
A: We're seeing stable or decreasing customer acquisition costs, as we've learned to leverage digital marketing effectively. Retention rates are high, with customers sending 12 to 13 wires per year, suggesting 100% wallet share among users. We expect exponential growth in 2025. -
Flat Revenue Guidance
Q: What factors drive your flat top-line guidance for 2025?
A: The primary drivers are a difficult macro environment in Mexico and increasing competition from digital players. Retail is contracting as digital grows, especially since digital accounts for over 30% in Mexico. We're being conservative in our outlook due to market uncertainties and pressures on immigration. -
Share Repurchase Plans
Q: How do you view share repurchases in 2025?
A: We've planned to repurchase about $40 million worth of shares in 2025, and may get more aggressive if market conditions make sense. -
Immigration Policy Impact
Q: How will changes in immigration policy affect your business?
A: While there are concerns about immigration policies, we don't believe our customers will return to Latin America due to threats. Historically, we've grown even during such times, and we don't anticipate a significant impact on our industry. -
Amigo Paisano Acquisition
Q: How did the Amigo Paisano opportunity come about?
A: Amigo Paisano was our first digital client, handling marketing while we managed other operations. When they decided to exit the business, we saw an opportunity to fully own the transactions, increasing our gross margin per transaction significantly. The acquisition was at a multiple lower than where we trade, making it an excellent value. -
Retail Headcount Additions
Q: Are you changing your approach to retail with added headcount?
A: We're focusing on both adding new agents and improving existing agent productivity, especially in underpenetrated Western states. By increasing our retail presence, we aim to drive more transactions and maximize performance in both new and existing retailers. -
Other Income Increase
Q: What's driving the increase in other income this quarter?
A: We identified an opportunity to adjust how we apply fees to uncollected money orders and wires, aligning with market practices. This adjustment boosted our other income in the fourth quarter and will continue to benefit us next year.