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indie Semiconductor, Inc. (INDI)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $58.0M, up 7.5% q/q and at the midpoint of guidance; Non-GAAP gross margin held flat at 50.4%; Non-GAAP loss per share improved to $0.07 as Non-GAAP operating loss narrowed to $14.2M .
  • Q1 2025 guidance: revenue $52.5–$57.5M (midpoint $55M), down 5.2% q/q but up 5.1% y/y, with Non-GAAP gross margin of 49–50%; OpEx targeted at ~$42M, net interest expense ~$1.3M, and ~($0.08) EPS on ~211M shares .
  • Management highlighted 2H 2025 ramps as key catalysts (Vision processor wins at a large Korean OEM and multiple Chinese OEMs; 77GHz Corner Radar production later 2025; 120GHz in-cabin radar samples), with ADAS programs “on track” for initial volume shipments in 2H 2025 .
  • Liquidity strengthened: the company issued $218.5M 3.5% 2029 converts and ended Q4 with $284.5M in total cash; capped call implies an effective strike around $8.06, enhancing flexibility for M&A and operations .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “In Q4, indie delivered growth despite a challenging market backdrop,” with revenue at $58.0M and Non-GAAP GM 50.4% (flat q/q) at the midpoint of outlook .
  • Strategic/technical momentum: Vision processor design win at a large Korean OEM; multiple China Vision wins; validated 120GHz in-cabin radar samples; ADAS programs on track for 2H25; ASIL-D certification for an electrification ASIC .
  • Cost discipline: Management initiated OpEx actions driving a $2M run-rate reduction comparing Q3’24 to Q1’25 outlook; Q1 guide implies OpEx ~$42M with R&D ~$31.5M and SG&A ~$10.5M .

What Went Wrong

  • YoY top-line pressure: Q4 revenue fell to $58.0M vs $70.1M in Q4’23; YoY Non-GAAP GM compressed to 50.4% from 52.7%; GAAP net loss widened to $35.3M vs $14.6M in Q4’23 .
  • Macro/tariffs uncertainty: management cited accelerated uncertainty, inventory/demand issues, and potential cross-border tariff friction (example: F-150 refresh delay) weighing on near-term ramps .
  • Q1 2025 ramps slower than anticipated: guide implies a 5.2% sequential decline to $55M midpoint due to market uncertainty and ramp timing .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$70.133 $52.355 $53.965 $58.009
GAAP EPS ($)$(0.09) $(0.11) $(0.28) $(0.18)
Non-GAAP EPS ($)N/A$(0.09) $(0.09) $(0.07)
Non-GAAP Gross Margin %52.7% 50.3% 50.4% 50.4%
Non-GAAP Operating Loss ($M)$(2.415) $(17.206) $(16.813) $(14.194)
Non-GAAP EBITDA ($M)$(0.963) $(15.783) $(14.814) $(12.307)

Segment/Revenue Mix

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Product Revenue ($M)$63.153 $49.009 $51.285 $53.826
Contract Revenue ($M)$6.980 $3.346 $2.680 $4.183

KPIs and Balance Sheet

  • Liquidity and debt | Metric | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | |---|---|---| | Cash and Cash Equivalents ($M) | $96.897 | $274.248 | | Long-term Debt, net ($M) | $157.537 | $369.097 |

  • Non-GAAP share count | Metric | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | |---|---|---|---| | Non-GAAP Share Count (M) | 191.091 | 199.893 | 205.707 |

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($M)Q1 2025N/A$52.5–$57.5 (mid $55.0) New; seq down ~5.2%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin %Q1 2025N/A49–50% New
Non-GAAP OpEx ($M)Q1 2025N/A~$42 (R&D ~$31.5; SG&A ~$10.5) New
Net Interest Expense ($M)Q1 2025N/A~$1.3 New
Cash TaxesQ1 2025N/ANone New
EPS (GAAP)Q1 2025N/A~($0.08) on ~211M shares New

Note: Management reiterated 2H 2025 program ramps (Vision, radar) as medium-term drivers; no formal FY 2025 ranges provided .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3)Current Period (Q4)Trend
ADAS/Radar/Vision rampsQ2: Validated radar SoC; targeted 2025 SOP; design wins across AEB/lighting; outlook to resume growth in 2H24 and 2025 . Q3: Strategic backlog $7.1B; strong Vision/Radar wins; Q4 guide >7% seq growth at midpoint .Vision processor selected by a large Korean OEM (front sensing, OMS); multiple China Vision wins; 77GHz Corner Radar on track for late-2025 shipments; 120GHz in-cabin radar samples validated .Positive execution toward 2H25 ramps
Supply chain/inventoryLimited explicit commentary in Q2/Q3 PRs .Channel inventories improved at indie; pockets remain; seasonality in China early Q1 .Gradual normalization
Tariffs/macroNot emphasized in Q2/Q3 PRs .Heightened uncertainty; potential cross-border tariff effects; example: F-150 refresh delay; management sees impacts as near-term/tactical, with mitigation via regionalized manufacturing .Near-term headwind
Product performance/mixQ2/Q3: Non-GAAP GM ~50% and stable; sequential revenue growth resuming .Non-GAAP GM 50.4% flat; contract revenue trending down as focus shifts to standard products .Margin stable; mix aligning to standard products
R&D/OpEx disciplineQ2/Q3: OpEx elevated amid investment; restructuring charges highlighted in Q3 .OpEx program underway; $2M run-rate cut achieved; Q1’25 OpEx guided to ~$42M .Improving cost trajectory
Safety/RegulatoryNot highlighted earlier.ASIL-D certification achieved for electrification ASIC .Strengthening credentials
Regional trendsQ3: Wins in China, North America EV; backlog growth across geographies .Relative strength in China over recent quarters; seasonality early year; Europe adjusting to competitive dynamics .Mixed by region

Management Commentary

  • “indie delivered growth despite a challenging market backdrop… [and] will also ensure that we drive growth throughout 2025 and beyond” — CEO, Donald McClymont .
  • “2025 will be an important year for indie as we begin realizing the benefits of our multiyear investments… with multiple ramps… and our key Corner Radar program later in the year” .
  • “Our lead [77GHz radar] customer continues to successfully progress… initial shipments will begin in late 2025… $1B lifetime value is maybe even a little bit on the conservative side” .
  • “I’m pleased to report… a $2 million reduction in our run rate quarterly non-GAAP operating expenses… Q1 2025 outlook of $42 million” — CFO, Raja Bal .
  • “We issued $218.5 million of 2029 convertible notes… coupon of 3.5%… effective strike price of $8.06… we exited the fourth quarter with total cash of $284.5 million” .

Q&A Highlights

  • 2H25 ramp visibility: Multiple ramps expected (Vision, radar, user experience); radar revenue begins late 2025; broader contribution ramps through 2026–2029 .
  • OpEx trajectory: Additional $1–$2M in run-rate reductions anticipated as 2025 progresses following Q1 ~$42M OpEx guide .
  • Tariffs/geopolitics: Near-term turbulence; mitigation via regional manufacturing (China-for-China, ex-China for ex-China); uncertainty seen as more planning/placement related than direct cost impact .
  • Macro/inventory: Inventory improved but macro “still choppy”; muted SAAR assumed in guidance .
  • Margins: Q1 GM guided 49–50% due to mix; ADAS ramps in 2H’25 are margin accretive; 55% exit-2025 target less certain but trend up expected .
  • Contract revenue: Expected to continue declining as focus shifts to standard products .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 actual vs. estimates and Q1 2025 estimates, but the request failed due to API daily limit constraints (“Daily Request Limit of 250000 Exceeded”). As a result, we cannot present reliable consensus comparisons at this time [SPGI GetEstimates error].
  • Prior quarter context: Management stated “indie exceeded consensus revenue forecasts in Q3” (press release), but did not cite Q4 beats/misses; without S&P Global data, we refrain from asserting beats/misses for Q4 .
  • Implication: Absent consensus, investors should anchor on sequential improvement, stable gross margin, and the Q1 guide’s sequential decline due to ramp timing and macro/tariff headwinds .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Sequential momentum with improving operating profile: Q4 revenue +7.5% q/q to $58.0M, Non-GAAP GM 50.4%, Non-GAAP op loss improved to $14.2M; EBITDA trend improving albeit still negative .
  • Near-term caution: Q1 2025 midpoint guide down ~5% q/q amid slower ramps and macro/tariffs; watch execution into 2H25 ramps (Vision, 77GHz radar) for re-acceleration .
  • Mix shift to standard products: Contract revenue is expected to fade as standard products scale—supportive for structural margins over time .
  • Margin trajectory: GM stable ~50%; ADAS-driven mix in 2H25 should be accretive; management is less definitive on hitting 55% by YE 2025 but expects improvement from Q1 levels .
  • OpEx discipline: Cost actions already reduced run-rate; additional $1–$2M reductions targeted, supporting operating leverage as ramps materialize .
  • Balance sheet optionality: $284.5M cash exiting Q4 and 2029 converts provide runway for organic execution and potential M&A; capped call structure reduces dilution risk up to ~$8.06 .
  • Watch list catalysts: Design-win conversions (Korean OEM, China Vision, German OMS), radar SOP timing, tariff policy updates, and proof points on Q2–Q4 2025 sequential inflection .

Appendix: Source Documents

  • Q4 2024 press release: revenue, margin, guidance, GAAP/Non-GAAP reconciliations and financial statements .
  • Q4 2024 8-K (Item 2.02): attaches press release and full financial tables .
  • Q4 2024 earnings call transcript: prepared remarks and Q&A including ramps, macro/tariffs, OpEx, margin and financing updates .
  • Prior-quarter press releases: Q3 2024 (growth above outlook; backlog $7.1B; Q4 guide), Q2 2024 (stable GM; 2H ramp set-up) .