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INFINITY PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (INFIQ)·Q3 2022 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2022 royalty revenue was $0.712M, up year over year ($0.428M in Q3 2021) and modestly above Q2 ($0.686M), while net loss remained $10.7M and diluted EPS was -$0.12, unchanged versus Q3 2021 [-$0.12] . Cash and equivalents were $47.2M, supporting runway into 2024 .
  • Management highlighted a MARIO-3 TNBC update showing a 52% increase in one-year PFS in the ITT population versus the IMpassion130 benchmark, and reiterated its top priority of securing a strategic partnership with the goal to announce in Q1 2023 .
  • FY22 guidance was maintained: net loss $40–$50M and year-end cash $35–$45M; runway into 2024 remains intact .
  • Post-release, third-party coverage indicated shares fell ~24%, citing a “revenue miss” (we could not verify Street consensus due to S&P Global mapping limitations) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Clinical signal: MARIO-3 TNBC update reported a 52% increase in one-year PFS versus IMpassion130, with no new safety signals; “encouraging one-year progression free survival rates…regardless of PD-L1 status” .
  • Strategy and tone: “Our top priority is entering into a strategic partnership to advance eganelisib development…It is our goal to announce a partnership…in the first quarter of 2023,” said CEO Adelene Perkins .
  • Liquidity: Cash/equivalents of $47.2M and guidance to end 2022 with $35–$45M, supporting runway into 2024 .

What Went Wrong

  • Persistent losses: Net loss remained $10.7M; diluted loss per share -$0.12, flat vs Q3 2021, indicating continued burn without product revenues .
  • Rising R&D vs prior year: R&D expense increased to $7.7M vs $7.1M in Q3 2021, primarily due to higher compensation expense tied to staffing for eganelisib .
  • Balance sheet pressure: Stockholders’ equity turned negative (-$10.874M), and liabilities related to sale of future royalties remained high at $47.753M .

Financial Results

Income Statement and EPS (USD Millions unless noted)

MetricQ3 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022
Royalty Revenue ($)$0.428 $0.652 $0.686 $0.712
Research & Development ($)$7.073 $8.990 $8.795 $7.663
General & Administrative ($)$3.847 $3.676 $3.495 $3.501
Net Loss ($)$10.713 $12.436 $11.986 $10.717
Basic & Diluted EPS ($)-$0.12 -$0.14 -$0.13 -$0.12
Weighted Avg Shares (MM)88.767 89.155 89.162 89.392

Balance Sheet Snapshot

MetricDec 31, 2021Mar 31, 2022Jun 30, 2022Sep 30, 2022
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($MM)$80.726 $67.140 $56.575 $47.182
Total Assets ($MM)$84.785 $72.578 $61.857 $51.591
Liabilities Related to Sale of Future Royalties, net ($MM)$48.727 $48.377 $47.955 $47.753
Accounts Payable & Accrued Expenses ($MM)$13.300 $13.394 $14.339 $14.200
Stockholders’ (Deficit) Equity ($MM)$21.571 $9.982 -$1.107 -$10.874

Segment Breakdown

  • Revenue composition: Royalty revenue only (no product revenue reported) .

Clinical/Operational KPIs

KPIQ1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022
MARIO-275 (UC) 2-year landmark OS benefitPlanned data in 2H22 45% alive (eganelisib+nivolumab) vs 24% (control) overall; 38% vs 17% PD-L1-negative; no new safety signals Reiterated platform benefit context
MARIO-3 (1L TNBC)Updates expected in 2H22 Update on track by year end 52% increase in one-year PFS vs IMpassion130 benchmark; no new safety signals

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net LossFY 2022$45–$55M (Q1 2022) $40–$50M (maintained Q2 & Q3 2022) Lowered in Q2; maintained in Q3
Year-End CashFY 2022$25–$35M (Q1 2022) $35–$45M (maintained Q2 & Q3 2022) Raised in Q2; maintained in Q3
Cash RunwayCorporateN/A in Q1 release; runway discussed laterInto 2024 (Q2 & Q3 2022) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ1 2022 (Prior Mentions)Q2 2022 (Prior Mentions)Q3 2022 (Current Period)Trend
Strategic partnershipFocus on initiating MARIO-4 by year-end 2022; MARIO-P to start 3Q22 “Prioritize establishing potential partnerships before beginning new efficacy studies” “Top priority is entering into a strategic partnership…goal to announce in Q1 2023” Increasing emphasis on BD before next trials
Clinical data updatesMARIO-3/MARIO-275/RCC data planned in 2H22 MARIO-275 2-year OS near doubling; no new safety signals MARIO-3 1-year PFS +52% vs benchmark; no new safety signals Consistent multi-trial benefit signals
Cash/liquidityFY22 net loss $45–$55M; YE cash $25–$35M FY22 net loss $40–$50M; YE cash $35–$45M; runway into 2024 Guidance maintained; cash $47.2M at Q3 Improved liquidity outlook; steady execution
R&D executionR&D up on staffing; plan for MARIO-4/MARIO-P R&D up YoY; staffing/consulting increases R&D YoY increase due to additional staff Higher R&D tied to buildout for next phases

Management Commentary

  • “Our top priority is entering into a strategic partnership to advance eganelisib development and pave the way to eventual approval…It is our goal to announce a partnership…in the first quarter of 2023,” — Adelene Perkins, CEO and Chair .
  • “Encouraged by the long-term benefit seen in front-line TNBC patients reported earlier today from MARIO-3…consistent with the long-term benefit seen in other indications” — Adelene Perkins .
  • “Positive survival data…approximately a doubling of patient survival at the two-year landmark analysis…particularly meaningful given this is a second line patient population” — Robert Ilaria, Jr., MD, CMO (Q2) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Infinity held its Q3 2022 conference call at 8:30 AM ET on Nov 14, 2022; registration and webcast details were provided (archived for 30 days) .
  • Public transcript links exist (e.g., GuruFocus, Seeking Alpha), but full transcript content could not be retrieved via our tools; based on company materials, key areas of focus were BD timeline (Q1 2023), MARIO-3 TNBC update, and cash runway .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to fetch S&P Global consensus for Q3 2022 EPS and revenue, but the SPGI/CIQ mapping for INFIQ is missing; therefore, we cannot assess beat/miss versus Street consensus at this time [SpgiEstimatesError from GetEstimates].
  • Given coverage constraints for micro-cap biotech and absent S&P Global mapping, PMs should treat third-party “revenue miss” headlines cautiously until mapping is resolved and consensus can be verified .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The near-term stock narrative hinges on the announced goal to secure a strategic partnership by Q1 2023; timely execution is likely the main catalyst for sentiment and funding visibility .
  • Clinical signals remain constructive: MARIO-3 TNBC one-year PFS improvement (+52% vs benchmark) and MARIO-275 2-year OS benefit support eganelisib’s potential across indications and could bolster BD interest .
  • Liquidity runway into 2024 and YE cash guidance of $35–$45M reduce near-term financing risk, but sustained operating losses and negative equity warrant careful monitoring .
  • R&D spend has risen on staffing to support future development; cost discipline and BD timing will be critical to avoid incremental dilution in the absence of product revenues .
  • Headlines suggested a sharp negative stock reaction post-Q3 (approx. -24%); verify consensus when SPGI mapping is available before concluding a fundamental “miss” .
  • If partnership timing slips or clinical plans pivot, re-rate risk increases; conversely, a credible partner with a randomized path (e.g., MARIO-4 or focused design) could materially de-risk the program .

Note: All financials and clinical updates are sourced from Infinity’s Q3, Q2, and Q1 2022 8-K press releases and associated exhibits; earnings call transcript links were identified but not retrievable in full via tools, and S&P Global consensus data was unavailable due to missing mapping .